Understanding African Swine Fever infection dynamics in Sardinia using a spatially explicit transmission model in domestic pig farms.

African swine fever virus (ASFV) has been endemic in Sardinia since 1978, resulting in severe losses for local pig producers and creating important problems for the island's veterinary authorities. This study used a spatially explicit stochastic transmission model followed by two regression models to investigate the dynamics of ASFV spread amongst domestic pig farms, to identify geographic areas at highest risk and determine the role of different susceptible pig populations (registered domestic pigs, non-registered domestic pigs [brado] and wild boar) in ASF occurrence. We simulated transmission within and between farms using an adapted version of the previously described model known as Be-FAST. Results from the model revealed a generally low diffusion of ASF in Sardinia, with only 24% of the simulations resulting in disease spread, and for each simulated outbreak on average only four farms and 66 pigs were affected. Overall, local spread (indirect transmission between farms within a 2 km radius through fomites) was the most common route of transmission, being responsible for 98.6% of secondary cases. The risk of ASF occurrence for each domestic pig farm was estimated from the spread model results and integrated in two regression models together with available data for brado and wild boar populations. There was a significant association between the density of all three populations (domestic pigs, brado, and wild boar) and ASF occurrence in Sardinia. The most significant risk factors were the high densities of brado (OR = 2.2) and wild boar (OR = 2.1). The results of both analyses demonstrated that ASF epidemiology and infection dynamics in Sardinia create a complex and multifactorial disease situation, where all susceptible populations play an important role. To stop ASF transmission in Sardinia, three main factors (improving biosecurity on domestic pig farms, eliminating brado practices and better management of wild boars) need to be addressed.

Why is African swine fever still present in Sardinia?

African swine fever (ASF) is an infectious disease of swine that has been present in Sardinia since 1978. Soon after introduction of the disease, several control and eradication programmes were established with limited success. Some researchers attributed the persistence of the disease in central and eastern areas to certain socio-economic factors, the existence of some local and traditional farming practices (i.e., unregistered free-ranging pigs known as brado animals) and the high density of wild boar in the region. In the past, scarcity of swine data in Sardinia complicated the evaluation and study of ASF on the island. More complete, accurate and reliable information on pig farms has become available as a result of the most recent eradication programmes. Here, we perform statistical modelling based on these data and the known distribution of domestic pig and wild boar to identify the main risk factors that have caused ASF persistence in Sardinia. Our results categorized, identified and quantified nine significant risk factors, six of which have not been previously described. The most significant factors were the number of medium-sized farms, the presence of brado animals and the combination of estimated wild boar density and mean altitude above sea level. Based on these factors, we identified regions in eastern and central Sardinia to be at greatest risk of ASF persistence; these regions are also where the disease has traditionally been endemic. Based on these risk factors, we propose specific control measures aimed at mitigating such risks and eradicating ASF from the island.

International regulations and standards for avian influenza, including the vaccine standards of the World Organisation for Animal Health.

For avian influenza the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) has laid down international standards on notification, trade, diagnosis, surveillance and the production and use of vaccine. These standards are science- and risk-based to ensure safe trade in poultry and poultry products without unjustified barriers. The European Union, with its 27 Member States, has in place harmonised legislation in line with OIE standards. Early detection, rapid diagnosis, notification and high quality Veterinary Services are crucial for ensuring a rapid response to avian influenza outbreaks and for swiftly reducing the risk of virus spread via trade. Depending on the situation, vaccination may also be a very important tool for disease control. The use of high quality vaccines and postvaccination monitoring are essential for the successful implementation of vaccination. Compliance with international standards is of paramount importance for protecting animal and human health in the global crisis of the highly pathogenic avian influenza of the H5N1 subtype.

Legislation for the control of avian influenza in the European union.

In the light of experience gained with avian influenza (AI) outbreaks in Europe and elsewhere in the world, the European Union (EU) legislation has recently been updated. The strategy to control the introduction and spread of AI relies on rapid disease detection, killing of infected birds, movement restrictions for live birds and their products, cleaning and disinfection and vaccination. Measures are not only to be implemented in case of outbreaks of highly pathogenic AI (HPAI), but are now also directed against occurrence of low pathogenic AI of H5 and H7 (LPAI) subtypes in poultry, albeit in a modified manner proportionate to the risk posed by these pathotypes. Enhanced surveillance in poultry holdings and wild birds, as well as preventive vaccination, has also been introduced. EU Measures are flexible and largely based on risk assessment of the local epidemiological situation. The occurrence of HPAI H5N1 of the Asian lineage in the EU and its unprecedented spread by wild migratory birds necessitated the adoption of additional control measures. Although HPAI H5N1 has affected wild birds and poultry holdings in several EU Member States, EU legislation and its implementation in Member States has so far successfully limited the impact of the disease on animal and human health.

Experiences in control of avian influenza in Europe, the Russian Federation and the Middle East.

An unprecedented global epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 has and continues to present enormous challenges to the international community for control in the animal reservoir. Enhanced biosecurity, good surveillance, both passive and active, supplemented by strong veterinary services, can reduce the risk for incursion and subsequent spread in free countries. Surveillance of mortality and laboratory testing among wild birds are useful early indicators of incursion of the virus into areas in which domestic poultry are not infected. Conventional control methods used widely in Europe and the Middle Eastern region involve stamping-out, zoning, quarantine, movement restrictions, enhanced surveillance and disinfection. Use of preventive vaccination is increasing in the region. In the Russian Federation, all backyard poultry considered to be at high risk for infection have been vaccinated since 2006. Several countries in the Middle East permit the use of vaccine, although rarely as part of a formal statutory programme. In the European Union, conventional approaches for control have proved effective, but both emergency and preventive vaccination could be used. Application of such programmes would have to be preceded by an evaluation of the risks for introduction and spread and might be restricted.

Control and eradication of O.I.E. list A diseases--the approach of the European Union to the use of vaccines.

In the last decade the European Union has experienced serious outbreaks of certain O.I.E. list A diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease, classical swine fever and avian influenza. These diseases have been controlled and eradicated by means of culling and destroying a very large number of animals, which has been very expensive and has raised ethical questions. In accordance with existing rules, emergency vaccination has also been applied under certain circumstances, but its use has often been hampered by the impossibility of distinguishing vaccinated but healthy animals from the infected ones and by its negative impact on the trade of the vaccinated animals and their products. Marker vaccines and suitable accompanying discriminatory tests may overcome these problems and be used as additional eradication tools, where appropriate. Provisions on the use of these tools have already been introduced in the legislation of the European Union.

Incidence and control of CSF in wild boar in Europe.

The possibility that Classical swine fever (CSF) persists in a wild boar population has been shown in some areas of France, Germany and Italy in recent years. Availability of susceptible animals and frequency of infectious contacts are major variables influencing disease evolution. In the European Union (EU) measures to control CSF in the wild boar are enforced in the framework of Council Directive 80/217/EEC, including eradication plans that must be enforced taking account of the local epidemiological situation. Oral vaccination experiments are being carried out in Germany, which have not led to final conclusions concerning the efficacy of vaccination in eradicating disease.

Temporal and spatial patterns of African swine fever in Sardinia.

Temporal patterns and spatial distribution of African swine fever (ASF) were studied through the analysis of routinely collected data in the ASF-endemic area of the Province of Nuoro, Sardinia. During 1993-1996, ASF outbreaks were reported from 45 out of the 82 municipalities of the study area. Overall farm-level incidence rate (IR) was 1.3 outbreaks per 100 farms-year. ASF peaked in 1995 (IR = 1.8) and declined in 1996 (IR = 0.82). Significant (P < 0.05) spring peaks of ASF outbreaks and affected municipalities were detected using statistical methods for circular distributions. Spatial clustering of ASF-affected municipalities, as evaluated by join-count statistics, was significant in 1993 (Zjc = -3.0, P < 0.01) and 1994 (Zjc = -3.2, P < 0.01) but not in 1995 (Zjc = -0.6, P = 0.55) and 1996 (Zjc = -1.2, P = 0.23). Extensive pig farming and ASF were spatially co-distributed (kappa = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.33-0.70).

Effect of husbandry methods on seropositivity to African swine fever virus in Sardinian swine herds.

Multiple logistic regression was used on serological data collected in the context of the Sardinian African swine fever (ASF) eradication program from pig farms in the province of Nuoro, Sardinia. The monthly percentage of ASFV-positive herds decreased significantly from October 1994 through March 1996 (P < 0.001). The farm-level risk of seropositivity to African swine fever virus (ASFV) was higher in free-range farms than in partial-confinement farms (odds ratios (OR) varied between 4.9 in October 1994, and 5.7 in March 1996, P < 0.001). The risk of infection for total-confinement farms was one-fifth of the risk for partial-confinement farms in October 1994 (OR = 0.2, P < 0.001), whereas in March 1996, the estimated OR was 0.57 and not significant (upper confidence limit = 1.1). The maintenance of ASFV in Sardinia was primarily associated with free-range pig farms. The natural logarithm of the number of pigs tested per visit in a farm was positively associated with the risk of herd seropositivity (OR = 2.6, P < 0.001).

Epidemiology of classical swine fever in Sardinia: a serological survey of wild boar and comparison with African swine fever.

A serological survey was carried out to establish the distribution of classical swine fever among wild boar in Sardinia, where that disease and African swine fever have been endemic in free-ranging domestic pigs and wild boar living in the mountainous areas of the province of Nuoro for several years. Blood samples were collected from 4752 wild boar shot during the period December 1988 to January 1992. An overall prevalence of 11 per cent was observed and the almost constant rate of about 9.8 per cent detected in the past three years indicates that the infection is well established. Wild boar seropositive to classical swine fever were found not only in the areas of the province of Nuoro where they share their habitat with free-ranging domestic pigs but also in other areas of the island where contacts between wild and domestic pigs are unlikely to occur. Therefore, transmission from wild boar to wild boar seems to play an important role in the spread and persistence of classical swine fever virus. In contrast, African swine fever virus is probably unable to persist in the wild boar population in the absence of the risk factor represented by their cohabitation with domestic free-ranging pigs infected with African swine fever.

An MMPI evaluation of male sexual dysfunction.

The present study concerned the evaluation of personality traits associated with sexual dysfunctions. The MMPI was used as a psychodiagnostic tool in male subjects (N = 37) with erectile disorder or premature ejaculation. The results tend to support some clinical observations based upon the cognitive-behavioral approach and some neurophysiological data.