Joint analysis of vaccination effectiveness and antiviral drug effectiveness for COVID-19: a causal inference approach.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to estimate the causal effects of oral antivirals and vaccinations in the prevention of all-cause mortality and progression to severe COVID-19 in an integrative setting with both antivirals and vaccinations considered as interventions. METHODS: We identified hospitalized adult patients (i.e. aged 18 or above) in Hong Kong with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between March 16, 2022, and December 31, 2022. An inverse probability-weighted (IPW) Andersen-Gill model with time-dependent predictors was used to address immortal time bias and produce causal estimates for the protection effects of oral antivirals and vaccinations against severe COVID-19. RESULTS: Given prescription is made within 5 days of confirmed infection, nirmatrelvir-ritonavir is more effective in providing protection against all-cause mortality and development into severe COVID-19 than molnupiravir. There was no significant difference between CoronaVac and Comirnaty in the effectiveness of reducing all-cause mortality and progression to severe COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: The use of oral antivirals and vaccinations causes lower risks of all-cause mortality and progression to severe COVID-19 for hospitalized SARS-CoV-2 patients.

Effectiveness of Vaccines and Antiviral Drugs in Preventing Severe and Fatal COVID-19, Hong Kong.

We compared the effectiveness and interactions of molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir and 2 vaccines, CoronaVac and Comirnaty, in a large population of inpatients with COVID-19 in Hong Kong. Both the oral antiviral drugs and vaccines were associated with lower risks for all-cause mortality and progression to serious/critical/fatal conditions (study outcomes). No significant interaction effects were observed between the antiviral drugs and vaccinations; their joint effects were additive. If antiviral drugs were prescribed within 5 days of confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis, usage was associated with lower risks for the target outcomes for patients >60, but not <60, years of age; no significant clinical benefit was found if prescribed beyond 5 days. Among patients >80 years of age, 3-4 doses of Comirnaty vaccine were associated with significantly lower risks for target outcomes. Policies should encourage COVID-19 vaccination, and oral antivirals should be made accessible to infected persons within 5 days of confirmed diagnosis.

Sample size calculation for multi-arm parallel design with restricted mean survival time.

With the recent advances in oncology treatment, restricted mean survival time (RMST) is increasingly being used to replace the routine approach based on hazard ratios in randomized controlled trials for time-to-event outcomes. While RMST has been widely applied in single-arm and two-arm designs, challenges still exist in comparing RMST in multi-arm trials with three or more groups. In particular, it is unclear in the literature how to compare more than one intervention simultaneously or perform multiple testing based on RMST, and sample size determination is a major obstacle to its penetration to practice. In this paper, we propose a novel method of designing multi-arm clinical trials with right-censored survival endpoint based on RMST that can be applied in both phase II/III settings using a global χ2 test as well as a modeling-based multiple comparison procedure. The framework provides a closed-form sample size formula built upon a multi-arm global test and a sample size determination procedure based on multiple-comparison in the phase II dose-finding study. The proposed method enjoys strong robustness and flexibility as it requires less a priori set-up than conventional work, and obtains a smaller sample size while achieving the target power. In the assessment of sample size, we also incorporate practical considerations, including the presence of non-proportional hazards and staggered patient entry. We evaluate the validity of our method through simulation studies under various scenarios. Finally, we demonstrate the accuracy and stability of our method by implementing it in the design of two real clinical trial examples.

A semiparametric joint model for cluster size and subunit-specific interval-censored outcomes.

Clustered data frequently arise in biomedical studies, where observations, or subunits, measured within a cluster are associated. The cluster size is said to be informative, if the outcome variable is associated with the number of subunits in a cluster. In most existing work, the informative cluster size issue is handled by marginal approaches based on within-cluster resampling, or cluster-weighted generalized estimating equations. Although these approaches yield consistent estimation of the marginal models, they do not allow estimation of within-cluster associations and are generally inefficient. In this paper, we propose a semiparametric joint model for clustered interval-censored event time data with informative cluster size. We use a random effect to account for the association among event times of the same cluster as well as the association between event times and the cluster size. For estimation, we propose a sieve maximum likelihood approach and devise a computationally-efficient expectation-maximization algorithm for implementation. The estimators are shown to be strongly consistent, with the Euclidean components being asymptotically normal and achieving semiparametric efficiency. Extensive simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the finite-sample performance, efficiency and robustness of the proposed method. We also illustrate our method via application to a motivating periodontal disease dataset.

Impact of training on primary care physicians' management of depression and anxiety disorders in rural China.

BACKGROUND: Primary care physicians (PCPs) in rural township health centers are the most easily accessible doctors to the residents in rural China, which covers 35% of the population. High prevalence of depression was reported among rural left-behind elderly and children as many workers had migrated to urban cities. AIM: This study explored mental health care provision by PCPs in rural China and the association with their training background. METHODS: Rural township health centers in both developed and less developed counties of Zhejiang Province, China were chosen as the study sites. A total of 697 PCPs completed questionnaires between December 2019 and January 2020, and the number of valid questionnaires was 673, with a valid response rate of 79.3%. RESULTS: The rural PCPs reported a median range of seeing 1 to 5 mental health patients per week. Over two-thirds (68.2%) of the respondents had never received any training on treating common mental health disorders (depression and anxiety) while 20.3% received at most 2 days of training; 6.4% received 3 to 20 days of training; and 5.1% received over 20 days of training. PCPs with mental health training were significantly associated with better mental health care in terms of confidence and practice characteristics (e.g. having patients who brought up mental health issues, providing follow-up), while years of practice made a difference in practice but not confidence. CONCLUSIONS: Training is the key determinant of the practice of mental health care by the PCPs in rural China. Our findings have implications for national policy to target two-thirds of rural PCPs who received no mental health training.

Youths' attitudes toward open discussion of suicide, preferred contexts, and the impact of Internet use: An exploratory sequential mixed-methods study in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: Although the necessity and benefits of having the open and public discussion about suicide have been recognized, youths' opinions regarding such discussion remain unknown. AIMS: To explore youths' attitudes toward open suicide discussion, particularly concerning their preference of discussion contexts and impacts of Internet use. METHOD: This exploratory sequential mixed-methods study targeted Hong Kong youths aged 15 to 19. A total of six focus groups and 12 individual interviews were held (N = 40). Topics included adolescents' views of open suicide discussion, concerns, perceived benefits, and preferred contexts. The questionnaire survey (N = 1,676) was conducted subsequently to investigate the prevalence of youths' perspectives on public discussion of suicide and relationships with discussion contexts, use of social media platforms, and motivations of online expression. RESULTS: Qualitative findings revealed three types of attitudes toward open suicide discussion: reluctance, support, and indifference. Major barriers included cultural norms, topic sensitivity, privacy concerns, contagion effect, fear of embarrassment, and unpleasant experiences in school programs. Results of quantitative analyses showed that reluctance was the dominant attitude among adolescents, and taboo was the top concern. Variations in youths' attitudes were related to gender, school academic banding, and suicide-related experiences. Notably, adolescents who had been exposed to suicide messages in contexts of peer networks and online platforms were more likely to endorse open suicide discussion. In addition, an increased likelihood of engaging in public suicide discussion was associated with the use of Instagram, WhatsApp, and Snapchat, and the motive of 'expressing emotions and opinions' online. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicated a prevalent rejection among adolescents toward open suicide discussion, suggesting the issue of stigma, the need for tailored programs, the value of appropriate contexts, and the impact of Internet use. These findings may facilitate the development of school-based suicide prevention initiatives and the efficacy of online services for suicide-related communication.

The Use of Close Friends on Instagram, Help-Seeking Willingness, and Suicidality Among Hong Kong Youth: Exploratory Sequential Mixed Methods Study.

BACKGROUND: Social networking sites (SNSs) have gained popularity in recent years for help seeking and self-distress expression among adolescents. Although online suicidal expression is believed to have major benefits, various concerns have also been raised, particularly around privacy issues. Understanding youths' help-seeking behavior on SNSs is critical for effective suicide prevention; however, most research neglects the impacts of the private SNS context. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to examine youths' private SNS use via the new Instagram feature, Close Friends, and its association with both online and offline help-seeking willingness as well as youths' suicidality. METHODS: This study employed an exploratory sequential mixed methods approach with a combination of explorative qualitative interviews and a systematic quantitative survey, targeting youth aged 15-19 years in Hong Kong. The motivations for utilizing Close Friends and concerns regarding online expression were addressed in the focus group and individual interviews (n=40). A cross-sectional survey (n=1676) was conducted subsequently with eligible secondary school students to examine the prevalence of Close Friends usage, their online and offline help-seeking willingness, and suicide-related experiences. RESULTS: A total of 3 primary motives for using Close Friends were identified during interviews, including (1) interaction and help seeking, (2) release of negative emotions, and (3) ventilation and self-expression. Most participants also highlighted the privacy concerns associated with public online communication and the importance of contacting close friends for emotional support. Survey results showed that use of Close Friends was quite prevalent among adolescents (1163/1646, 70.66%), with around 46% (754/1646, 45.81%) of respondents being frequent users. Differences by gender and school academic banding were also revealed. Regarding help-seeking intentions, youths were generally positive about seeking help from peers and friends offline (1010/1266, 79.78%) yet negative about seeking assistance from online friends or professionals with whom they had not yet developed a real-world connection (173/1266, 13.67%). Most notably, frequencies of Close Friends usage were differentially associated with online and offline help-seeking willingness and youths' suicidality. Compared with nonusers, those who had ever used the feature were more likely to seek offline support (adjusted odds ratios [AORs] 1.82-2.36), whereas heavy use of Close Friends was associated with increased odds of online help-seeking willingness (AOR 1.76, 95% CI 1.06-2.93) and a higher risk of suicidality (AOR 1.53, 95% CI 1.01-2.31). CONCLUSIONS: The popularity of Close Friends reflects the increasing need for private online expression among youth. This study demonstrates the importance of Close Friends for self-expression and private conversation and inadequacy of peer support for suicidal adolescents. Further research is needed to identify the causal relationship between Close Friends usage and help-seeking willingness to guide the advancement of suicide prevention strategies. Researchers and social media platforms may cooperate to co-design a risk monitoring system tailored to the private SNS context, assisting professionals in identifying youth at risk of suicide.

Medical interns' views on the strategies for reducing antibiotic misuse in the hospitals-what guidelines do they follow?

Objectives: Although the topic of antibiotic misuse is taught in medical schools, interns (fresh medical graduates) still encounter barriers to appropriate antibiotic prescription when they practice in hospitals under supervision. The impact of teaching in medical school, antibiotics stewardship program (ASP), and prescription guidelines was uncertain. This study explored the medical interns' views on antibiotic use and resistance, and their perceived enablers to appropriate antibiotic prescription. Methods: Two focus groups were conducted among medical interns with rotation experiences in different public hospitals of Hong Kong. The identified themes about attitudes to antibiotic resistance and enablers to appropriate antibiotic prescription were further examined by a questionnaire survey with 77 respondents. Results: The interns had lower preferences for tackling antibiotic resistance as they feared of delayed prescriptions. Guidelines provided by international evidence-based clinical resources and the interns' working hospitals were stronger enablers to appropriate antibiotic use than education materials from schools and the government. Qualitative findings revealed that the interns were aware of the existing ASP but doubted its effectiveness as it failed to get the prescribers' attention. They followed guidelines in their wards but perceived guidelines from local health authorities user-unfriendly. Knowledge from medical school was not very applicable. Varying prescribing practices between hospitals and the densely placed hospital beds made it difficult to prevent the spread of antimicrobial resistance. Conclusions: Minimizing delayed prescription is of a higher priority than tackling antibiotic resistance in medical interns' perspective. Interventions should target guidelines in hospitals and simplify the interface of local guidelines.

Motivations for Online Expression, Willingness of Online Help-Seeking, and the Risk of Suicide Among Hong Kong Youths: A Mixed-Methods Study.

Despite widespread interest in social media use, little is known about the heterogeneity of underlying motivations for online engagement among at-risk adolescents. This study adopted a mixed-methods approach to evaluate the motives of online expression among Hong Kong youths aged 15-19, as well as their relationships to online help-seeking willingness and suicide risks. In total, 6 focus groups and 12 individual interviews were conducted (N = 40) to elicit information regarding online expression purposes and to construct questionnaire items. The cross-sectional survey (N = 1,676) was undertaken subsequently to determine the prevalence of motives, and their correlations with online help-seeking willingness and suicide risks. Qualitative interviews revealed two key themes: major motivations for online expression, and features of online expression and help-seeking among suicidal youths. Quantitative analyses demonstrated the prevalence of each online expression purpose, with most reporting on "emotional expression" and "life sharing and documentation," but variations identified by gender, school academic banding, and suicide-related experience. Notably, an ordinal logistic regression model revealed that motives of "emotional expression" and "image building" were associated with increased suicide risks, while the purpose of "life sharing" was associated with decreased suicide risks. Those who expressed online for "self-expression" and "friend making" showed a stronger willingness for online help-seeking. These findings provide a more holistic overview of the purposes of online expression, which suggested the likelihood of mental health issues and the need for support. Such insight may facilitate the development of more effective suicide prevention strategies and online intervention services.

Ratio estimators of intervention effects on event rates in cluster randomized trials.

We consider five asymptotically unbiased estimators of intervention effects on event rates in non-matched and matched-pair cluster randomized trials, including ratio of mean counts r1 , ratio of mean cluster-level event rates r2 , ratio of event rates r3 , double ratio of counts r4 , and double ratio of event rates r5 . In the absence of an indirect effect, they all estimate the direct effect of the intervention. Otherwise, r1 , r2, and r3 estimate the total effect, which comprises the direct and indirect effects, whereas r4 and r5 estimate the direct effect only. We derive the conditions under which each estimator is more precise or powerful than its alternatives. To control bias in studies with a small number of clusters, we propose a set of approximately unbiased estimators. We evaluate their properties by simulation and apply the methods to a trial of seasonal malaria chemoprevention. The approximately unbiased estimators are practically unbiased and their confidence intervals usually have coverage probability close to the nominal level; the asymptotically unbiased estimators perform well when the number of clusters is approximately 32 or more per trial arm. Despite its simplicity, r1 performs comparably with r2 and r3 in trials with a large but realistic number of clusters. When the variability of baseline event rate is large and there is no indirect effect, r4 and r5 tend to offer higher power than r1 , r2, and r3 . We discuss the implications of these findings to the planning and analysis of cluster randomized trials.

Demographic and Epidemiological Contributions to Recent Trends in Cancer Incidence in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: Hong Kong has an ageing Chinese population with high life expectancy and a rising number of cancer cases. While population ageing could lead to higher incidence, we aim to quantify the demographic and epidemiological contributions to this trend by disentangling the effect of these factors. METHODS: We analysed secular trends of cancer incidences of all cancer sites combined, including the five top cancers in men and women in Hong Kong in 1983-2017, by disentangling effects of demographics (ageing population and population growth) and cancer risk/rate change using the RiskDiff methodology. RESULTS: Overall, age-standardised incidences of all cancers combined in women and in men declined over the study period (-5.3% for women, -30.2% for men), but total incident cancer case counts increased dramatically (156.5% for women, 96% for men). This increase was primarily due to ageing and increasing population (95% age, 66.1% growth for women, and 119.4% age, 25.4% growth for men), while disease risk for all cancers combined has a decreasing trend (-4.5% for women and -48.8% for men). For the site-specific risk changes among the most five common cancer types, there were increases in risks of prostate and colorectal cancers in men, and breast, endometrial, and thyroid cancers in women. CONCLUSION: Demographic changes and ageing in our Chinese population resulted in a marked increase in the number of cancer diagnoses in Hong Kong in past decades. The surge in incident case counts overall is expected to stress the healthcare system in terms of the increased demand of healthcare professionals. Cancer surveillance should be enhanced in view of the growing demand from older patients and the cancer types with fast-increasing incidence rates in our population.

Primary care physicians' views on the factors for enhancing patients' trust in rural areas of Zhejiang province, China: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine primary care physicians' (PCPs) perception of patients' trust and associated factors for enhancing perceived trust in rural China. DESIGN: A cross-sectional questionnaire study. SETTING: All township health centres (primary care facilities in rural areas of China) in both developed and less developed counties of Zhejiang province, China, were chosen as the study sites. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 849 questionnaires were distributed from December 2019 to January 2020, and 673 PCPs working in township health centres completed the questionnaires. The response rate was 79.3%. OUTCOME MEASURES: PCPs' perceived patients' trust in them, PCPs' practices to meet patients' expectations and PCPs' perceived conflicting patient and employer interests were measured by a self-designed and verified questionnaire. Confirmatory factor analysis was applied to verify the measurement model of PCPs' practices. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to explore the association between clinical practice characteristics, discordant patient and employer interests and perceived patient trust after controlling for social-demographic characteristics. RESULTS: Among all participants, 572 (85.0%) PCPs often/always perceived patients' trust in their clinical competence, and over two-thirds of PCPs reported ever perceived patient worries about overprescriptions. After adjustment for social-demographic characteristics, regression model results indicated that, among PCPs' clinical practices characteristics, emotional support (OR=1.23, 95% CI=1.06 to 1.42) and accurate diagnosis and treatment (OR=1.35, 95% CI=1.17 to 1.55) were positively associated with PCPs' perceived patients' trust in their clinical competence. A strong association was found between accurate diagnosis and treatment (OR=1.20, 95% CI=1.08 to 1.34, p<0.001; OR=1.22, 95% CI=1.10 to 1.35, p<0.001), conflicting patient and employer interests (OR=1.35, 95% CI=1.12 to 1.63, p<0.01; OR=1.29, 95% CI=1.07 to 1.54, p<0.01) and PCPs' perceived patient worries about unnecessary medicine or tests, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: PCPs' emotional support to patients as well as their abilities to make accurate diagnosis and provide appropriate treatment is positively associated with PCPs' self-reported patients' trust. It is recommended that reforms to realign patient and employer's interests be investigated.

Marginal analysis of current status data with informative cluster size using a class of semiparametric transformation cure models.

This research is motivated by a periodontal disease dataset that possesses certain special features. The dataset consists of clustered current status time-to-event observations with large and varying cluster sizes, where the cluster size is associated with the disease outcome. Also, heavy censoring is present in the data even with long follow-up time, suggesting the presence of a cured subpopulation. In this paper, we propose a computationally efficient marginal approach, namely the cluster-weighted generalized estimating equation approach, to analyze the data based on a class of semiparametric transformation cure models. The parametric and nonparametric components of the model are estimated using a Bernstein-polynomial based sieve maximum pseudo-likelihood approach. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are studied. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimators in scenarios with different degree of informative clustering and within-cluster dependence. The proposed method is applied to the motivating periodontal disease data for illustration.

Improving Public Toilet Environment and Hygiene Practices in an Asian City: Voices From Hong Kong Residents.

Toilet hygiene is an important preventive measure for infectious diseases, including severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and COVID-19. This study explored public's opinions on improving toilet environment and hygiene practices in Hong Kong. A mixed-method approach was applied. We conducted 4 focus groups plus 3 individual interviews among the Hong Kong Chinese, followed by a questionnaire survey with 300 respondents recruited from various districts. Difference in response distributions between groups with different demographics was tested by Pearson χ2 test. Instead of advocating for advanced toilet facilities, respondents were mostly concerned about basic hygiene issues. Malfunctioning facilities resulting from poor toilet management, such as clogged toilets, stained facilities, and problematic flushing systems, were most cited as barriers to toilet hygiene practices. Three quarters of the survey respondents expressed concerns over worn and poorly maintained toilets, shortage of janitors, and cleansing supplies. However, respondents who were older (P < .001), less educated (P < .001), and had lower income (P = .001) were significantly more likely to find hygiene conditions in public toilets satisfactory. The findings reflected the substandard of the current provisions as a developed city in Asia. Enhanced efforts by the government to maintain basic toilet supplies and facilities is the key to improving public compliance to toilet hygiene practices.

Management of Domestic Violence by Primary Care Physicians in Hong Kong: Association With Barriers, Attitudes, Training, and Practice Background.

While primary care physicians (PCPs) have opportunities to recognize patients who encounter domestic violence (DV) by intimate partners, warning symptoms such as unexplained physical injury, bruising, anxiety, and depression are often missed during clinic visits. This study investigated the barriers of Hong Kong PCPs toward managing DV, including recognition, management, and referrals of these patients. Four focus group interviews were conducted to explore the in-depth opinions of PCPs on managing DV in Hong Kong. The themes identified were investigated in a questionnaire survey with data from 504 PCPs working in public and private sectors. Factor analysis of the survey data suggested four major barrier factors: (a) worries about the potential harms of intervening in patients' domestic affairs and DV issues, (b) lack of guidelines and support services, (c) limited skills and time in managing DV, and (d) patients' reluctance in disclosing DV issues. PCPs with more years of practice had more worries about intervening in domestic issues (Factor 1), while the younger PCPs tended to perceive limited skills and time in managing DV cases as barriers (Factor 3). PCPs working in the public setting were more likely to ask patients about DV (M = 5.4 vs. 2.9), suspected DV (M = 3.8 vs. 2.3), and managed DV (M = 1.7 vs. 1.0) in the past 5 years compared with the private PCPs. Some PCPs in the focus groups expressed the view that DV cases should be handled by social workers instead of doctors. Survey respondents who held such views about doctors' limited role in DV management also scored higher in all of the barrier factors. The findings suggest that there are boundaries between domestic and medical realms, especially in a Chinese context. Resolving PCPs' worries by training, provision of DV management guidelines, and referral pathway to social workers may be good starting points to bridge the gaps.

Antibiotic prescriptions by medical interns in Hong Kong: influence of the hospital settings and prescription culture.

BACKGROUND: Inappropriate antibiotic prescribing practices predispose to resistance emergence. Despite the inclusion of the topic in medical school curricula worldwide, it is uncertain whether newly graduated medical interns have confidence in proper antibiotic prescription. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to explore the antibiotic prescribing behaviours of the medical interns in Hong Kong and their barriers to appropriate antibiotic prescription. METHODS: Two focus groups were conducted among medical interns with training experiences in different public hospitals. Their prescribing behaviours and barriers were further examined with a questionnaire survey just before completion of internship. RESULTS: Focus group interviews identified a variety of hospital workplace cultures, including inappropriate empirical prescriptions and dosages, interns' passive roles in prescribing antibiotics and varied guidelines between different departments. Defensive medicine and lack of clinical experience were other barriers encountered. The interns believed that the incorrect practice learnt would perpetuate in their minds and affect their future practice. The top barriers reported by the survey respondents were adaptation to prescription culture of different hospitals (93.5%), lack of experience in antibiotic prescription (88.3%), inadequate knowledge in the choice of antibiotics (85.7%) and compliance with the seniors' instructions (80.6%). However, some focus group participants perceived weaker barriers in paediatric departments which provided close monitoring of antibiotic use. CONCLUSIONS: Inadequate knowledge and low confidence in antibiotic prescription led to the passive role of medical interns in antibiotic prescription, predisposing to future inappropriate practice. Inconsistent guidelines and prescription cultures between different hospitals and departments might further exacerbate their barriers.

Patients' Coping Behaviors to Unavailability of Essential Medicines in Primary Care in Developed Urban China.

BACKGROUND: China rolled out the national essential medicines policy (NEMP) in primary care in 2009 and led to some unintended consequences including unavailability of essential medicines. This study examined patients' coping behaviors to these unintended consequences of NEMP as well as the potential impact on primary care system development in Hangzhou, a developed city of China. METHODS: We conducted qualitative interviews and surveys with service users, primary care physicians (PCPs), and specialists in tertiary hospitals. Qualitative findings informed the design of the survey questionnaires. Main outcomes included patients' coping behaviors after the NEMP implementation, as well as providers' perceptions of NEMP's impact on primary care development. Thematic analysis of the qualitative data and descriptive analysis of the survey data were conducted. RESULTS: Unintended effects of NEMP included frequent unavailability of certain essential drugs, leading to patient flow from primary care to hospital outpatient clinics for drug refills, difficulties in the provision of continuing care in primary care, as well as compromised patient trust in PCPs. In total, 1248 service users completed the questionnaires. A total of 132 (10.6%) were aged 60 years or above. Among 153 (57.7%) of the 265 who had some chronic condition(s) and needed long-term medication treatment, 60.1% went to hospitals for refills. Four-hundred sixty PCPs and 651 specialists were recruited. Among 404 PCPs who were aware of the NEMP policy implementation in their facility, 169 (41.8%) reported that there was often a shortage of drugs at their facilities and 44 (10.9%) reported always. Moreover, 68.6% of these PCPs thought that the NEMP could not meet their patients' needs. Further, 44.2% (220/498) of specialists who were aware of the NEMP policy in primary care reported that they often heard patients complaining about the policy. In total, 53.1% of PCPs and 42.4% of specialists disagreed that NEMP helped direct patient flow to community-based care. CONCLUSION: NEMP's unintended effects undermined patients' utilization of primary care in a developed city in China and led to unnecessary hospital visits. Countermeasures are needed to mitigate the negative impacts of NEMP on the primary care system.

A decomposition analysis to examine the change in the number of recipients in the comprehensive social security assistance (CSSA) system.

Social security is an important social and public policy measure to help address poverty in any contemporary society. The Comprehensive Social Security Assistance (CSSA) system in Hong Kong provides a safety net for those aged children and adults below 65 years old who cannot support themselves financially. It is designed to bring their income up to a prescribed level to meet their basic needs. The rapid increase in social welfare expenditure in the last decade has become a concern to the Hong Kong SAR Government. The overall social welfare expenditure has accounted for nearly 15.6% of government expenditure in 2018, with the total amount increasing from $58 billion to $90 billion (an increase of 72.4%) for the period 2014-2018. However, the amount spent on CSSA only increased from $20.7 billion to $22.3 billion with an increase of 7.7% only for the same period. The much slower magnitude of increase is related to the reduction in the number of CSSA recipients, which decreased from 237,501 to 185,528 over the period. A decomposition method was used to assess the changes in the number of people in the CSSA system. It showed that the rate of arriving into the system has been decreasing due to a robust economy with a very low unemployment rate; whereas moving out of the system has also been decreasing in the past 5 years. This phenomenon can be partly attributed to the widening of the income gap in the community in the period. Despite the increase in population size, as long as employment conditions remain strong and the momentum of leaving the system can be maintained, the number of CSSA recipients will continue to decrease. However, the results also suggested that a certain proportion of CSSA recipients will not be able to move out of the system and have been trapped. Some innovative methods to help them out of CSSA are discussed. In view of the poor economic outlook arising from the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important for the Government to have effective measures to keep people in their jobs. If the unemployment rate will does not substantially increase and then increase of in CSSA recipients can be contained.

Modeling Internal Movement of Children Born in Hong Kong to Nonlocal Mothers.

In Hong Kong, approximately 300,000 children were born to Mainland China couples in the period 1991-2012. According to Basic Law, the mini constitution of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) government, these parents do not have residence rights, but their children do. As a result, most of these children have returned to Mainland China with their parents. An important consideration for policymakers is how many of these children (who are now adults in some cases) will return to Hong Kong for good, and when, as this will have a significant impact on social service provision, especially in the education sector, where it will be necessary to ensure there is capacity to meet the additional demand. Prior survey results conducted by the government suggested that more than 50% of these children would return to Hong Kong before age six. It is important to be able to provide a timely projection of the demand into the future. Here, we make use of the immigration records on the actual movement of these children and propose a Markov chain model to estimate their return rates in the future. Our results show that only about 25% of these children would return rather than 50% estimated by the survey. We also find that parents with better educational attainment levels are associated with lower return rates of their children. Timely and relevant social and public policies are needed to prepare for their return to minimize disruption to the local population and promote social harmony for the whole community.

Factors that facilitate recognition and management of domestic violence by primary care physicians in a Chinese context - a mixed methods study in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: Domestic violence is common in the community. Many of its victims present to primary care physicians (PCPs) but are not being recognized and managed. The barriers, with specific reference to a Chinese cultural context, were investigated earlier. This paper explored the factors which facilitated the process of recognizing and managing suspected cases of domestic violence by PCPs in Hong Kong. METHODS: Four focus group interviews were conducted to explore in-depth the experiences of PCPs in recognition, management and referral of domestic violence cases from which facilitators were identified. The relevant themes were then investigated in a questionnaire survey with 504 PCPs working in public and private sectors. RESULTS: The focus group participants emphasized mood symptoms as useful indicators for probable abuse and continuity of care was important to unmask issues of domestic violence. The top facilitators perceived by the respondents of the survey included: a trusting doctor-patient relationship (99.8%), good communication skills (99.0%), patients' unexplained bruises (96.3%), medical history (94.6%), and mood symptoms (94.4%). Further, the survey found that PCPs with longer years of practice, a medical degree obtained from Western countries, and postgraduate training in family counselling or psychological medicine perceived more facilitators in managing domestic violence. CONCLUSIONS: Without a local screening policy and training protocol to manage domestic violence, PCPs regarded their skills in mental healthcare and good relationships with patients as the key facilitators. While training in mental health care helps PCPs manage domestic violence, a specific protocol emphasizing medical-social collaboration is anticipated to facilitate them to take a more proactive and effective stance from screening to management.