Liver Transplantation vs Partial Hepatectomy for Stage T2 Multifocal Hepatocellular Carcinoma <3 cm Without Vascular Invasion: A Propensity Score-Matched Survival Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Multifocal hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) differs biologically and immunologically from single-nodule HCC. Asian and European guidelines consider liver transplantation (LT) and partial hepatectomy (PH) as effective for T2 multifocal HCC, with preference toward LT, but few US studies compare these treatments directly. This propensity score-based observational study uses an established national cancer outcomes registry to compare overall survival in patients undergoing PH and LT for multifocal HCC. STUDY DESIGN: Data from the 2020 National Cancer Database were obtained on patients who underwent LT or PH for multifocal stage 2 HCC within Milan criteria and without vascular invasion. Propensity score matching and Cox regression analysis was applied to evaluate overall survival in an observational cohort balanced by age, sex, treatment facility type, treatment year, prothrombin time, α-fetoprotein, comorbidity burden, liver fibrosis severity, and pretreatment creatinine and bilirubin levels. RESULTS: Of 21,248 T2 HCC patients identified, 6,744 had multifocal tumors with largest tumor diameter <3 cm without major vascular invasion, with 1,267 and 181 having undergone LT and PH, respectively. Propensity score-matched Cox regression analysis associated LT with a hazard ratio of 0.39 (95% CI 0.30 to 0.50) relative to PH. Landmark analyses to account for a longer interval to LT demonstrated survival benefits of similar magnitude. CONCLUSIONS: Although early-stage HCC can be effectively treated with either LT or PH, propensity score-matched analysis comparatively shows a survival benefit for LT in patients with multifocal HCC who are within the Milan criteria.

Biomarkers in Polycystic Kidney Disease: Are We There?

This article describes the use of prognostic, predictive, and response biomarkers that have been developed for autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease and their use in clinical care or drug development. We focus on biochemical markers that can be assayed in patients' blood and urine and their association with the outcome of decreased glomerular filtration rate. There have been several studies on prognostic biomarkers. The most promising ones have been markers of tubular injury, inflammation, metabolism, or the vasopressin-urinary concentration axis. So far, none have been shown to be superior to kidney volume-based biomarkers. Several biomarkers are additive to kidney volume and genotype in prognostic models, but there have been few direct comparisons between the biochemical markers to identify the best ones. Moreover, there is a lack of uniformity in the statistical tools used to assess and compare biomarkers. There have been few reports of predictive and response biomarkers, and none are suitable surrogate endpoints. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration's Biomarker Qualification Program provides a regulatory pathway to approve biomarkers for use across multiple drug-development programs.

Perceived Hospital Stress, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Activity, and Care Process Temporal Variance During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic threatened standard hospital operations. We sought to understand how this stress was perceived and manifested within individual hospitals and in relation to local viral activity. DESIGN: Prospective weekly hospital stress survey, November 2020-June 2022. SETTING: Society of Critical Care Medicine's Discovery Severe Acute Respiratory Infection-Preparedness multicenter cohort study. SUBJECTS: Thirteen hospitals across seven U.S. health systems. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We analyzed 839 hospital-weeks of data over 85 pandemic weeks and five viral surges. Perceived overall hospital, ICU, and emergency department (ED) stress due to severe acute respiratory infection patients during the pandemic were reported by a mean of 43% ( sd , 36%), 32% (30%), and 14% (22%) of hospitals per week, respectively, and perceived care deviations in a mean of 36% (33%). Overall hospital stress was highly correlated with ICU stress (ρ = 0.82; p < 0.0001) but only moderately correlated with ED stress (ρ = 0.52; p < 0.0001). A county increase in 10 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 cases per 100,000 residents was associated with an increase in the odds of overall hospital, ICU, and ED stress by 9% (95% CI, 5-12%), 7% (3-10%), and 4% (2-6%), respectively. During the Delta variant surge, overall hospital stress persisted for a median of 11.5 weeks (interquartile range, 9-14 wk) after local case peak. ICU stress had a similar pattern of resolution (median 11 wk [6-14 wk] after local case peak; p = 0.59) while the resolution of ED stress (median 6 wk [5-6 wk] after local case peak; p = 0.003) was earlier. There was a similar but attenuated pattern during the Omicron BA.1 subvariant surge. CONCLUSIONS: During the COVID-19 pandemic, perceived care deviations were common and potentially avoidable patient harm was rare. Perceived hospital stress persisted for weeks after surges peaked.

Utility of new image-derived biomarkers for autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease prognosis using automated instance cyst segmentation.

New image-derived biomarkers for patients affected by autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease are needed to improve current clinical management. The measurement of total kidney volume (TKV) provides critical information for clinicians to drive care decisions. However, patients with similar TKV may present with very different phenotypes, often requiring subjective decisions based on other factors (e.g., appearance of healthy kidney parenchyma, a few cysts contributing significantly to overall TKV, etc.). In this study, we describe a new technique to individually segment cysts and quantify biometric parameters including cyst volume, cyst number, parenchyma volume, and cyst parenchyma surface area. Using data from the Consortium for Radiologic Imaging Studies of Polycystic Kidney Disease (CRISP) study the utility of these new parameters was explored, both quantitatively as well as visually. Total cyst number and cyst parenchyma surface area showed superior prediction of the slope of estimated glomerular filtration rate decline, kidney failure and chronic kidney disease stages 3A, 3B, and 4, compared to TKV. In addition, presentations such as a few large cysts contributing significantly to overall kidney volume were shown to be much better stratified in terms of outcome predictions. Thus, these new image biomarkers, which can be obtained automatically, will have great utility in future studies and clinical care for patients affected by autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease.

Poor Outcomes of Patients With NAFLD and Moderate Renal Dysfunction or Short-Term Dialysis Receiving a Liver Transplant Alone.

The outcomes of patients with moderate renal impairment and the impact of liver disease etiology on renal function recovery after liver transplant alone (LTA) are largely unknown. We explored whether NAFLD patients with pre-LTA moderate renal dysfunction (GFR 25-45 ml/min/1.73 m2) may be more susceptible to develop post-LTA severe renal dysfunction (GFR<15 ml/min/1.73 m2) than ALD patients, as well as other overall outcomes. Using the UNOS/OPTN database, we selected patients undergoing liver transplant for NAFLD or ALD (2006-2016), 15,103 of whom received LTA. NAFLD patients with moderate renal dysfunction were more likely to develop subsequent GFR<15 ml/min/1.73 m2 than ALD patients (11.1% vs. 7.38%, p < 0.001). Patients on short-term dialysis pre-LTA (≤12 weeks) were more likely to develop severe renal dysfunction (31.7% vs. 18.1%), especially in NAFLD patients, and were more likely to receive a further kidney transplant (15.3% vs. 3.7%) and had lower survival (48.6% vs. 50.4%) after LTA (p < 0.001 for all). NAFLD was an independent risk factor for post-LTA severe renal dysfunction (HR = 1.2, p = 0.02). NAFLD patients with moderate renal dysfunction and those receiving short-term dialysis prior to LTA are at a higher risk of developing subsequent severe renal dysfunction. Underlying etiology of liver disease may play a role in predicting development and progression of renal failure in patients receiving LTA.

Utility of Biomarkers for Sepsis-Associated Acute Kidney Injury Staging.

Importance: The 23rd Acute Disease Quality Initiative (ADQI-23) consensus conference proposed a framework to integrate biomarkers into the staging of acute kidney injury (AKI). It is unknown whether tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases 2 (TIMP-2) and insulinlike growth factor binding protein 7 (IGFBP7) could be used for staging. Objective: To test whether higher levels of urinary [TIMP-2] × [IGFBP7] are associated with lower survival among patients with the same functional stage of AKI. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study was performed using data from the Protocolized Care for Early Septic Shock (ProCESS) trial, which enrolled critically ill patients with septic shock who presented at academic and community emergency departments and intensive care units in the US from March 2008 to May 2013. Patients with end-stage kidney disease, a reference serum creatinine level of 4 mg/dL or greater (to convert to µmol/L, multiply by 76.25), or missing data on serum creatinine levels or urinary levels of [TIMP-2] × [IGFBP7] were excluded. Data were analyzed from October 2020 to October 2021. Exposures: The presence of AKI, assessed using Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes criteria within 24 hours after enrollment and the highest AKI stage as well as urinary [TIMP-2] × [IGFBP7] level at 6 hours after enrollment. A previously reported high-specificity cutoff level for [TIMP-2] × [IGFBP7] of 2.0 (ng/mL)2/1000 was used to categorize patients (including those without functional criteria of AKI) according to the new staging system proposed by the ADQI-23 as biomarker negative (urinary [TIMP-2] × [IGFBP7] level ≤2.0 [ng/mL]2/1000) or biomarker positive ([TIMP-2] × [IGFBP7] >2.0 [ng/mL]2/1000). Main Outcomes and Measures: Survival (assessed using Kaplan-Meier plots and the log-rank test) and mortality (assessed using relative risk [RR] 30 days after enrollment). Results: The analysis included 999 patients with a median age of 61 years (IQR, 50-73 years); 554 (55.5%) were male. Biomarker-positive patients had lower survival and higher mortality at 30 days in the groups with AKI stage 1 (RR, 2.20; 95% CI, 1.02-4.72), stage 2 (RR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.04-2.27), and stage 3 (RR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.00-2.60). The associations were specific to patients with AKI. No difference in 30-day survival was found between biomarker-positive and biomarker-negative patients in the absence of functional criteria for AKI (RR, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.45-3.01). Conclusions and Relevance: The findings suggest that assessment of the cell-cycle arrest biomarkers TIMP-2 and IGFBP7 may augment AKI staging for patients with functional criteria for AKI.

Volume Progression and Imaging Classification of Polycystic Liver in Early Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The progression of polycystic liver disease is not well understood. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the associations of polycystic liver progression with other disease progression variables and classify liver progression on the basis of patient's age, height-adjusted liver cystic volume, and height-adjusted liver volume. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: Prospective longitudinal magnetic resonance images from 670 patients with early autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease for up to 14 years of follow-up were evaluated to measure height-adjusted liver cystic volume and height-adjusted liver volume. Among them, 245 patients with liver cyst volume >50 ml at baseline were included in the longitudinal analysis. Linear mixed models on log-transformed height-adjusted liver cystic volume and height-adjusted liver volume were fitted to approximate mean annual rate of change for each outcome. The association of sex, body mass index, genotype, baseline height-adjusted total kidney volume, and Mayo imaging class was assessed. We calculated height-adjusted liver cystic volume ranges for each specific age and divided them into five classes on the basis of annual percentage increase in height-adjusted liver cystic volume. RESULTS: The mean annual growth rate of height-adjusted liver cystic volume was 12% (95% confidence interval, 11.1% to 13.1%; P<0.001), whereas that for height-adjusted liver volume was 2% (95% confidence interval, 1.9% to 2.6%; P<0.001). Women had higher baseline height-adjusted liver cystic volume than men, but men had higher height-adjusted liver cystic volume growth rate than women by 2% (95% confidence interval, 0.4% to 4.5%; P=0.02). Whereas the height-adjusted liver cystic volume growth rate decreased in women after menopause, no decrease was observed in men at any age. Body mass index, genotype, and baseline height-adjusted total kidney volume were not associated with the growth rate of height-adjusted liver cystic volume or height-adjusted liver volume. According to the height-adjusted liver cystic volume growth rate, patients were classified into five classes (number of women, men in each class): A (24, six); B (44, 13); C (43, 48); D (28, 17); and E (13, nine). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with height-adjusted liver volume, the use of height-adjusted liver cystic volume showed greater separations in volumetric progression of polycystic liver disease. Similar to the Mayo imaging classification for the kidney, the progression of polycystic liver disease may be categorized on the basis of patient's age and height-adjusted liver cystic volume.

Transarterial Radioembolization for Hepatocellular Carcinoma with Major Vascular Invasion: A Nationwide Propensity Score-Matched Analysis with Target Trial Emulation.

PURPOSE: To examine National Cancer Database (NCDB) data to comparatively evaluate overall survival (OS) between patients undergoing transarterial radioembolization (TARE) and those undergoing systemic therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma with major vascular invasion (HCC-MVI). METHODS: One thousand five hundred fourteen patients with HCC-MVI undergoing first-line TARE or systemic therapy were identified from the NCDB. OS was compared using propensity score-matched Cox regression and landmark analysis. Efficacy was also compared within a target trial framework. RESULTS: TARE usage doubled between 2010 and 2015. Intervals before treatment were longer for TARE than for systemic therapy (mean [median], 66.5 [60] days vs 46.8 (35) days, respectively, P < .0001). In propensity-score-matched and landmark-time-adjusted analyses, TARE was found to be associated with a hazard ratio of 0.74 (95 % CI, 0.60-0.91; P = .005) and median OS of 7.1 months (95 % CI, 5.0-10.5) versus 4.9 months (95 % CI, 3.9-6.5) for systemically treated patients. In an emulated target trial involving 236 patients with unilobular HCC-MVI, a low number of comorbidities, creatinine levels <2.0 mg/dL, bilirubin levels <2.0 mg/dL, and international normalized ratio <1.7, TARE was found to be associated with a hazard ratio of 0.57 (95 % CI, 0.39-0.83; P = .004) and a median OS of 12.9 months (95 % CI, 7.6-19.2) versus 6.5 months (95 % CI, 3.6-11.1) for the systemic therapy arm. CONCLUSIONS: In propensity-score-matched analyses involving pragmatic and target trial HCC-MVI cohorts, TARE was found to be associated with significant survival benefits compared with systemic therapy. Although not a substitute for prospective trials, these findings suggest that the increasing use of TARE for HCC-MVI is accompanied by improved OS. Further trials of TARE in patients with HCC-MVI are needed, especially to compare with newer systemic therapies.

Prognostic Value of Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 in Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease.

INTRODUCTION: Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is characterized by progressive cyst growth and a loss of functioning renal mass, but a decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and onset of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) occur late in the disease course. There is therefore a great need for early prognostic biomarkers in this disorder. METHODS: We measured baseline serum fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) levels in 192 patients with ADPKD from the Consortium for Radiologic Imaging Studies of PKD (CRISP) cohort that were followed for a median of 13 years and tested the association between FGF23 levels and change over time in height-adjusted total kidney volume (htTKV), GFR, and time to the composite endpoints of ESRD, death, and doubling of serum creatinine. RESULTS: Patients in the highest quartile for baseline FGF23 level had a higher rate of increase in htTKV (0.95% per year, P = 0.0016), and faster rate of decline in GFR (difference of -1.03 ml/min/1.73 m2 per year, P = 0.005) compared with the lowest quartile, after adjusting for other covariates, including htTKV and genotype. The highest quartile of FGF23 was also associated with a substantial increase in risk for the composite endpoint of ESRD, death, or doubling of serum creatinine (hazard ratio [HR] of 2.45 in the fully adjusted model, P = 0.03). CONCLUSION: FGF23 is a prognostic biomarker for disease progression and clinically important outcomes in ADPKD, and has additive value to established imaging and genetic biomarkers.

Rapid-Cycle Community Assessment of Health-Related Social Needs of Children and Families During Coronavirus Disease 2019.

OBJECTIVE: To identify unmet health and social resource needs during a county-wide coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) stay-at-home order and phased re-opening in Western Pennsylvania. METHODS: With public health, social service, and community partners connected through an ongoing academic-community collaborative, we developed and fielded a weekly repeated cross-sectional electronic survey assessing usage of and unmet need for health and social service resources. Using 10 weeks of surveys (April 3-June 11, 2020) by Allegheny County residents, we examined variation in responses by week and by sociodemographic characteristics using chi-square tests. We shared written reports weekly and discussed emerging trends with community partners. RESULTS: Participants ranged from 229 to 1001 per week. Unmet need for at least 1 health or health-related social need resource varied by week, ranging from 55% (95% confidence interval [CI] 50%-59%) of participants in week 2 to 43% (95% CI 37%-49%) of participants in week 9 (P = .006). Increased use of at least 1 resource ranged from 53% (95% CI 47%-58%) of participants in week 3 to 36% (95% CI 31%-42%) in week 9 (P < .001). Unmet need for food and financial assistance peaked early during the stay-at-home order, while unmet need for mental health care rose later. Unmet need for food assistance varied significantly by race and ethnicity and by household prepandemic income. CONCLUSIONS: Over half of families with children reported unmet health or social service needs during the first month of a county-wide COVID-19 stay-at-home order. Unmet needs varied with race, ethnicity, and income and with duration of the stay-at-home order.

Expanded Imaging Classification of Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease.

BACKGROUND: The Mayo Clinic imaging classification of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) uses height-adjusted total kidney volume (htTKV) and age to identify patients at highest risk for disease progression. However, this classification applies only to patients with typical diffuse cystic disease (class 1). Because htTKV poorly predicts eGFR decline for the 5%-10% of patients with atypical morphology (class 2), imaging-based risk modeling remains unresolved. METHODS: Of 558 adults with ADPKD in the HALT-A study, we identified 25 patients of class 2A with prominent exophytic cysts (class 2Ae) and 43 patients of class 1 with prominent exophytic cysts; we recalculated their htTKVs to exclude exophytic cysts. Using original and recalculated htTKVs in association with imaging classification in logistic and mixed linear models, we compared predictions for developing CKD stage 3 and for eGFR trajectory. RESULTS: Using recalculated htTKVs increased specificity for developing CKD stage 3 in all participants from 82.6% to 84.2% after adjustment for baseline age, eGFR, BMI, sex, and race. The predicted proportion of class 2Ae patients developing CKD stage 3 using a cutoff of 0.5 for predicting case status was better calibrated to the observed value of 13.0% with recalculated htTKVs (45.5%) versus original htTKVs (63.6%). Using recalculated htTKVs reduced the mean paired difference between predicted and observed eGFR from 17.6 (using original htTKVs) to 4.0 ml/min per 1.73 m2 for class 2Ae, and from -1.7 (using original htTKVs) to 0.1 ml/min per 1.73 m2 for class 1. CONCLUSIONS: Use of a recalculated htTKV measure that excludes prominent exophytic cysts facilitates inclusion of class 2 patients and reclassification of class 1 patients in the Mayo classification model.

Frailty as Tested by Gait Speed Is a Risk Factor for Liver Transplant Respiratory Complications.

OBJECTIVES: Frailty and sarcopenia are known risk factors for adverse liver transplant outcomes and mortality. We hypothesized that frailty or sarcopenia could identify the risk for common serious transplant-related adverse respiratory events. METHODS: For 107 patients (74 men, 33 women) transplanted over 1 year, we measured frailty with gait speed, chair stands, and Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS) and sarcopenia with Skeletal Muscle Index on computed tomography at L3. We recorded the stress-tested cardiac double product as an index of cardiac work capacity. Outcomes included days of intubation, aspiration, clinical pneumonia, reintubation/tracheostomy, days to discharge, and survival. We modeled the outcomes using unadjusted regression and multivariable analyses controlled for (i) age, sex, and either Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Na (MELDNa) or Child-Turcotte-Pugh scores, (ii) hepatocellular carcinoma status, and (iii) chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and smoking history. Subgroup analysis was performed for living donor liver transplant and deceased donor liver transplant recipients. RESULTS: Gait speed was negatively associated with aspiration and pulmonary infection, both in unadjusted and MELDNa-adjusted models (adjusted odds ratio for aspiration 0.10 [95% confidence interval [CI] 0.02-0.67] and adjusted odds ratio for pulmonary infection 0.12 [95% CI 0.02-0.75]). Unadjusted and MELDNa-adjusted models for gait speed (coefficient -1.47, 95% CI -2.39 to -0.56) and KPS (coefficient -3.17, 95% CI -5.02 to -1.32) were significantly associated with shorter intubation times. No test was associated with length of stay or need for either reintubation or tracheostomy. DISCUSSION: Slow gait speed, an index of general frailty, indicates significant risk for post-transplant respiratory complications. Intervention to arrest or reverse frailty merits exploration as a potentially modifiable risk factor for improving transplant respiratory outcomes.

Cross-dressed dendritic cells sustain effector T cell responses in islet and kidney allografts.

Activation of host T cells that mediate allograft rejection is a 2-step process. The first occurs in secondary lymphoid organs where T cells encounter alloantigens presented by host DCs and differentiate to effectors. Antigen presentation at these sites occurs principally via transfer of intact, donor MHC-peptide complexes from graft cells to host DCs (cross-dressing) or by uptake and processing of donor antigens into allopeptides bound to self-MHC molecules (indirect presentation). The second step takes place in the graft, where effector T cells reengage with host DCs before causing rejection. How host DCs present alloantigens to T cells in the graft is not known. Using mouse islet and kidney transplantation models, imaging cytometry, and 2-photon intravital microscopy, we demonstrate extensive cross-dressing of intragraft host DCs with donor MHC-peptide complexes that occurred early after transplantation, whereas host DCs presenting donor antigen via the indirect pathway were rare. Cross-dressed DCs stably engaged TCR-transgenic effector CD8+ T cells that recognized donor antigen and were sufficient for sustaining acute rejection. In the chronic kidney rejection model, cross-dressing declined over time but was still conspicuous 8 weeks after transplantation. We conclude that cross-dressing of host DCs with donor MHC molecules is a major antigen presentation pathway driving effector T cell responses within allografts.

Soluble Urokinase Plasminogen Activator Receptor and Decline in Kidney Function in Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease.

BACKGROUND: Levels of soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR), an inflammation marker, are strongly predictive of incident kidney disease. Patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) experience progressive decline in renal function, but rates of decline and outcomes vary greatly. Whether suPAR levels are predictive of declining kidney function in patients with ADPKD is unknown. METHODS: We assessed suPAR levels in 649 patients with ADPKD who underwent scheduled follow-up for at least 3 years, with repeated measurements of height-adjusted total kidney volume and creatinine-derived eGFR. We used linear mixed models for repeated measures and Cox proportional hazards to characterize associations between baseline suPAR levels and follow-up eGFR or incident ESRD. RESULTS: The median suPAR level was 2.47 ng/ml and median height-adjusted total kidney volume was 778, whereas mean eGFR was 84 ml/min per 1.73 m2. suPAR levels were associated with height-adjusted total kidney volume (ß=0.02; 95% confidence interval, 0.01 to 0.03), independent of age, sex, race, hypertension, and eGFR. Patients in the lowest suPAR tertile (<2.18 ng/ml) had a 6.8% decline in eGFR at 3 years and 22% developed CKD stage 3, whereas those in the highest tertile (suPAR>2.83 ng/ml) had a 19.4% decline in eGFR at 3 years and 68% developed CKD stage 3. suPAR levels >2.82 ng/ml had a 3.38-fold increase in the risk of incident ESRD. CONCLUSIONS: suPAR levels were associated with progressive decline in renal function and incident ESRD in patients with ADPKD, and may aid early identification of patients at high risk of disease progression.

Growth Pattern of Kidney Cyst Number and Volume in Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the growth pattern of kidney cyst number and cyst volume in association with kidney size, demographics, and genotypes in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: Kidney cyst number and cyst volume were measured from serial magnetic resonance images, giving a maximum follow-up of 14.23 years, from 241 patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (15-46 years old at baseline). The growth pattern was analyzed, in association with sex, age, height-adjusted total kidney volume, and genotype, using linear mixed models of repeated measurements and tests of interactions with age (as a time-dependent covariate) to assess rates of change over time. Models were also fit using Irazabal class. Genotypic groups were characterized as either (1) PKD1 truncating, PKD1 nontruncating, and PKD2 plus patients with no mutation detected; or (2) in combination with PKD1 mutation strength groups. RESULTS: Imaging and genetic data were collected (at least one visit) for 236 participants. The mean height-adjusted total cyst number increased exponentially over time from a baseline value of 762 to 1715 at the last clinic visit, while the mean height-adjusted total cyst volume increased exponentially from 305 to 770 ml. Height-adjusted total kidney volume, height-adjusted total cyst number, and height-adjusted total cyst volume were all highly correlated over time. Female participants and participants with larger height-adjusted total kidney volume at baseline showed smaller rates of change in the log of height-adjusted total cyst number and cyst volume. PKD1 was associated with significant increases in both cyst number and volume at a given age, but genotype did not significantly affect the rate of growth. CONCLUSIONS: Both height-adjusted total cyst number and height-adjusted total cyst volume increased exponentially and more than doubled over 14.23 years of follow-up. Compared with PKD2 plus no mutation detected, PKD1 was associated with a greater cyst number and volume at a given age, but no significant difference in the rate of growth.

Long-term trajectory of kidney function in autosomal-dominant polycystic kidney disease.

Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is characterized by cyst and kidney growth, which is hypothesized to cause loss of functioning renal mass and eventually end-stage kidney disease. However, the time course of decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is poorly defined. The Consortium for Radiologic Imaging Studies of Polycystic Kidney Disease study is a 14-year observational cohort study of 241 adults with ADPKD. As an estimate of the rate of kidney growth, participants were stratified into 5 subclasses based on baseline age and magnetic resonance imaging measurements of total kidney volume (TKV) according to the method of Irazabal. GFR trajectories spanning over four decades of life were reconstructed and fitted using mixed polynomial models, which were validated using data from the HALT-PKD study. GFR trajectories were nonlinear, with a period of relative stability in most participants, followed by accelerating decline. The shape and slope of these trajectories were strongly associated with baseline Irazabal class. Patients with PKD1 mutations had a steeper GFR decline than patients with PKD2 mutations or with no detected mutation, largely mediated by the effect of genotype on Irazabal class. Thus, GFR decline in ADPKD is nonlinear, and its trajectory throughout adulthood can be predicted from a single measurement of kidney volume. These models can be used for clinical prognostication, clinical trial design, and patient selection for clinical interventions. Our findings support a causal link between growth in kidney volume and GFR decline, adding support for the use of TKV as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials.

The triple variable index combines information generated over time from common monitoring variables to identify patients expressing distinct patterns of intraoperative physiology.

BACKGROUND: Mean arterial pressure (MAP), bispectral index (BIS), and minimum alveolar concentration (MAC) represent valuable, yet dynamic intraoperative monitoring variables. They provide information related to poor outcomes when considered together, however their collective behavior across time has not been characterized. METHODS: We have developed the Triple Variable Index (TVI), a composite variable representing the sum of z-scores from MAP, BIS, and MAC values that occur together during surgery. We generated a TVI expression profile, defined as the sequential TVI values expressed across time, for each surgery where concurrent MAP, BIS, and MAC monitoring occurred in an adult patient (≥18 years) at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center between January and July 2014 (n = 5296). Patterns of TVI expression were identified using k-means clustering and compared across numerous patient, procedure, and outcome characteristics. TVI and the triple low state were compared as prediction models for 30-day postoperative mortality. RESULTS: The median frequency MAP, BIS, and MAC were recorded was one measurement every 3, 5, and 5 min. Three expression patterns were identified: elevated, mixed, and depressed. The elevated pattern displayed the highest average MAP, BIS, and MAC values (86.5 mmHg, 45.3, and 0.98, respectively), while the depressed pattern displayed the lowest values (76.6 mmHg, 38.0, 0.66). Patterns (elevated, mixed, depressed) were distinct across the following characteristics: average patient age (52, 53, 54 years), American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status 4 (6.7, 16.1, 27.3%) and 5 (0.1, 0.6, 1.6%) categories, cardiac (2.2, 6.5, 16.1%) and emergent (5.8, 10.5, 12.8%) surgery, cardiopulmonary bypass use (0.3, 2.6, 9.8%), intraoperative medication administration including etomidate (3.0, 7.3, 12.6%), hydromorphone (47.6, 26.3, 25.2%), ketamine (11.2, 4.6, 3.0%), dexmedetomidine (18.4, 16.6, 13.6%), phenylephrine (74.0, 74.8, 83.0), epinephrine (2.0, 6.0, 18.0%), norepinephrine (2.4, 7.5, 21.2%), vasopressin (3.4, 7.6, 21.0%), succinylcholine (74.0, 69.0, 61.9%), intraoperative hypotension (28.8, 33.0, 52.3%) and the triple low state (9.4, 30.3, 80.0%) exposure, and 30-day postoperative mortality (0.8, 2.7, 5.6%). TVI was a better predictor of patients that died or survived in the 30 days following surgery compared to cumulative triple low state exposure (AUC 0.68 versus 0.62, p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Surgeries that share similar patterns of TVI expression display distinct patient, procedure, and outcome characteristics.

Relationship between caffeine intake and autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease progression: a retrospective analysis using the CRISP cohort.

BACKGROUND: Caffeine has been proposed, based on in vitro cultured cell studies, to accelerate progression of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) by increasing kidney size. Since ADPKD patients are advised to minimize caffeine intake, we investigated the effect of caffeine on disease progression in the Consortium for Radiologic Imaging Studies of Polycystic Kidney Disease (CRISP), a prospective, observational cohort study. METHODS: Our study included 239 patients (mean age = 32.3 ± 8.9 ys; 188 caffeine consumers) with a median follow-up time of 12.5 years. Caffeine intake reported at baseline was dichotomized (any vs. none). Linear mixed models, unadjusted and adjusted for age, race, sex, BMI, smoking, hypertension, genetics and time, were used to model height-adjusted total kidney volume (htTKV) and iothalamate clearance (mGFR). Cox proportional hazards models and Kaplan-Meier plots examined the effect of caffeine on time to ESRD or death. RESULTS: Caffeine-by-time was statistically significant when modeling ln(htTKV) in unadjusted and adjusted models (p <  0.01) indicating that caffeine consumers had slightly faster kidney growth (by 0.6% per year), but htTKV remained smaller from baseline throughout the study. Caffeine consumption was not associated with a difference in mGFR, or in the time to ESRD or death (p > 0.05). Moreover the results were similar when outcomes were modeled as a function of caffeine dose. CONCLUSION: We conclude that caffeine does not have a significant detrimental effect on disease progression in ADPKD.

Baseline total kidney volume and the rate of kidney growth are associated with chronic kidney disease progression in Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease.

Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is characterized by progressive enlargement of kidney cysts leading to chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Identification of an early biomarker that can predict progression of CKD is urgently needed. In an earlier Consortium for Radiologic Imaging Studies of Polycystic Kidney Disease (CRISP) study (a prospective, multicenter, observational analysis of 241 patients with ADPKD initiated in 2000), baseline height-adjusted total kidney volume (htTKV) was shown to be associated with development of CKD stage 3 after eight years of follow-up. Here we conducted an extended study and found that in a multivariable logistic regression model, baseline htTKV was shown to be a strong, independent predictor for the development of CKD after a median follow-up of 13 years. The odds ratio of reaching each CKD stage per 100 mL/m increment in htTKV was 1.38 (95% confidence interval 1.19-1.60) for stage 3, 1.42 (1.23-1.64) for stage 4, and 1.35 (1.18-1.55) for stage 5 or ESRD. Baseline htTKV was also associated with relative decreases in the glomerular filtration rate of 30%, and 57% or more. Moreover, the rate of change in htTKV was negatively correlated with the slope of the glomerular filtration rate. While ADPKD genotype was also associated with CKD outcomes, it was not an independent prognostic factor after adjusting for htTKV. Thus, baseline total kidney volume and the rate of kidney growth are strongly associated with the development of advanced stages of CKD. These findings support the use of total kidney volume as a prognostic and potentially monitoring biomarker in ADPKD.