Risk factors and timing of relapse after allogeneic transplantation in pediatric ALL: for whom and when should interventions be tested?

We previously showed that minimal residual disease (MRD) detection pre-hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) and acute GvHD (aGvHD) independently predicted risk of relapse in pediatric ALL. In this study we further define risk by assessing timing of relapse and the effects of leukemia risk category and post-HCT MRD. By multivariate analysis, pre-HCT MRD <0.1% and aGvHD by day +55 were associated with decreased relapse and improved event-free survival (EFS). Intermediate leukemia risk status predicted decreased relapse, and improved EFS and overall survival (OS). Patients with pre-HCT MRD ⩾0.1% who did not develop aGvHD compared with those with MRD <0.1% who did develop aGvHD had much worse survival (2 years EFS 18% vs 71%; P=0.001, 2 years OS 46 vs 74%; P=0.04). Patients with pre-HCT MRD <0.1% who did not experience aGvHD had higher rates of relapse than those who did develop aGvHD (40% vs 13%; P= 0.008). Post-HCT MRD led to a substantial increase in relapse risk (HR=4.5, P<0.01). Patients at high risk of relapse can be defined after transplant using leukemia risk category, presence of MRD pre or post HCT, and occurrence of aGvHD. An optimal window to initiate intervention to prevent relapse occurs between day +55 and +200 after HCT.

SunSmart: evaluation of a pilot school-based sun protection intervention in Hispanic early adolescents.

The incidence of melanoma is rising among Hispanic populations in the United States. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of a pilot sun safety educational intervention conducted from 2006 to 2012 on Hispanic early adolescents in a high ultraviolet environment. Nineteen schools with high Hispanic enrollment were recruited from urban neighborhoods in Los Angeles. The analytic sample was restricted to students identifying as Hispanic or Latino (n = 777). A mixed effects linear model was used to test mean changes from pre- to posttest on students' sun protection knowledge, attitudes and behaviors. Significant improvements were observed across several cognitive outcomes related to sun protection, including knowledge of and attitudes toward sun protection and self-efficacy to wear sunscreen. However, changes in sun protective behaviors were not achieved. Although some improvements were observed, future studies should identify the factors that motivate sun protection in this population and develop tailored prevention strategies, as improving the sun safe behaviors of Hispanic youths may aid in reducing the risk of melanoma in adulthood in this population.

[Effect of rocking motion on labor pain before epidural catheter insertion in the sitting position]. / Effet du mouvement de balancement sur la douleur du travail avant la mise en place du cathéter péridural en position assise.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of rocking motion on labour pain and before epidural catheter insertion. STUDY DESIGN: Clinical prospective observational study. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Pain scores (numerical scale: 0-10) were recorded in 50 laboring women in three consecutive positions: lying down, sitting and then rocking back and forth while seated. The overall satisfaction (0-10) and any comment related to the rocking procedure were also recorded. RESULTS: One woman refused to rock during the procedure and five alternated moving and still periods. Pain scores were similar in the lying (8.1 +/- 1.8) and sitting position (8.0 +/- 1.8), whereas they significantly decreased while rocking (6.6 +/- 1.7; p < 0.001 versus both lying and sitting still positions). Satisfaction associated with rocking chair motion was high (8.9 +/- 1.4). DISCUSSION: Within the limits of an observational and preliminary study, we observed that rocking motion during the procedure was associated with a significant decrease in labour pain and that patient satisfaction was high. Several hypotheses are proposed to explain these effects, i.e. patient's involvement in an action that focuses attention, loss of parturient's landmarks and stimulation of the vestibular system which might lead to a change in the cognitive perception of the body.

Risk for contralateral breast cancer among carriers of the CHEK2*1100delC mutation in the WECARE Study.

The protein encoded by the CHEK2 gene is involved in cellular repair of DNA damage. The truncating mutation, CHEK2*1100delC, seems to increase the risk for breast cancer. We investigated whether the CHEK2*1100delC mutation carrier status increases the risk for asynchronous contralateral breast cancer (CBC) and whether it interacts with radiation therapy (RT) or chemotherapy in regard to CBC risk. The germline mutation frequency was assessed in 708 women with CBC and 1395 women with unilateral breast cancer (UBC) in the Women's Environment, Cancer and Radiation Epidemiology (WECARE) Study whose first primary breast cancer was diagnosed before age 55 years and during 1985--1999. Seven women with CBC (1.0%) and 10 women with UBC (0.7%) were CHEK2*1100delC variant carriers (rate ratio (RR)=1.8, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.6-5.4 for CBC vs UBC). Carriers who received RT for their first breast cancer, compared with non-carriers not treated with RT, had an RR of developing CBC of 2.6 (95% CI=0.8-8.7). We found no significant associations between the CHEK2*1100delC mutation and CBC overall or among those treated with RT. However, the sampling variability was such that modest increases in risk could not be excluded. Nonetheless, because this is a rare mutation, it is unlikely to explain a major fraction of CBC in the population.

Endometrial carcinoma risk among women diagnosed with endometrial hyperplasia: the 34-year experience in a large health plan.

Classifying endometrial hyperplasia (EH) according to the severity of glandular crowding (simple hyperplasia (SH) vs complex hyperplasia (CH)) and nuclear atypia (simple atypical hyperplasia (SAH) vs complex atypical hyperplasia (CAH)) should predict subsequent endometrial carcinoma risk, but data on progression are lacking. Our nested case-control study of EH progression included 138 cases, who were diagnosed with EH and then with carcinoma (1970-2003) at least 1 year (median, 6.5 years) later, and 241 controls, who were individually matched on age, date, and follow-up duration and counter-matched on EH classification. After centralised pathology panel and medical record review, we generated rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for treatment and repeat biopsies. With disordered proliferative endometrium (DPEM) as the referent, AH significantly increased carcinoma risk (RR=14, 95% CI, 5-38). Risk was highest 1-5 years after AH (RR=48, 95% CI, 8-294), but remained elevated 5 or more years after AH (RR=3.5, 95% CI, 1.0-9.6). Progression risks for SH (RR=2.0, 95% CI, 0.9-4.5) and CH (RR=2.8, 95% CI, 1.0-7.9) were substantially lower and only slightly higher than the progression risk for DPEM. The higher progression risks for AH could foster management guidelines based on markedly different progression risks for atypical vs non-atypical EH.

Stratified case sampling and the use of family controls.

We compare the asymptotic relative efficiency (ARE) of different study designs for estimating gene and gene-environment interaction effects using matched case-control data. In the sampling schemes considered, cases are selected differentially based on their family history of disease. Controls are selected either from unrelated subjects or from among the case's unaffected siblings and cousins. Parameters are estimated using weighted conditional logistic regression, where the likelihood contributions for each subject are weighted by the fraction of cases sampled sharing the same family history. Results showed that compared to random sampling, over-sampling cases with a positive family history increased the efficiency for estimating the main effect of a gene for sib-control designs (103-254% ARE) and decreased efficiency for cousin-control and population-control designs (68-94% ARE and 67-84% ARE, respectively). Population controls and random sampling of cases were most efficient for a recessive gene or a dominant gene with an relative risk less than 9. For estimating gene-environment interactions, over-sampling positive-family-history cases again led to increased efficiency using sib controls (111-180% ARE) and decreased efficiency using population controls (68-87% ARE). Using case-cousin pairs, the results differed based on the genetic model and the size of the interaction effect; biased sampling was only slightly more efficient than random sampling for large interaction effects under a dominant gene model (relative risk ratio = 8, 106% ARE). Overall, the most efficient study design for studying gene-environment interaction was the case-sib-control design with over-sampling of positive-family-history-cases.

Counter-matching in studies of gene-environment interaction: efficiency and feasibility.

The interest in studying gene-environment interaction is increasing for complex diseases. However, most methods of detecting gene-environment interactions may not be appropriate for the study of interactions involving rare genes (G:) or uncommon environmental exposures (E:), because of poor statistical power. To increase this power, the authors propose the counter-matching design. This design increases the number of subjects with the rare factor without increasing the number of measurements that must be performed. In this paper, the efficiency and feasibility (required sample sizes) of counter-matching designs are evaluated and discussed. Counter-matching on both G: and E: appears to be the most efficient design for detecting gene-environment interaction. The sensitivity and specificity of the surrogate measures, the frequencies of G: and E:, and, to a lesser extent, the value of the interaction effect are the most important parameters for determining efficiency. Feasibility is also more dependent on the exposure frequencies and the interaction effect than on the main effects of G: and E: Although the efficiency of counter-matching is greatest when the risk factors are very rare, the study of such rare factors is not realistic unless one is interested in very strong interaction effects. Nevertheless, counter-matching appears to be more appropriate than most traditional epidemiologic methods for the study of interactions involving rare factors.

Factors that explain the power line configuration wiring code-childhood leukemia association: what would they look like?

We explore the question of how to characterize a factor that would explain the patterns of wire code-childhood leukemia association observed in three major United States case-control studies. In positive studies, such a factor needs to be more prevalent in "high" wire codes than "low" whereas in negative studies, the factor should not be correlated to wire code. These concepts are quantified and we use these results to characterize potential factors that might explain the wire code-childhood leukemia association. We then re-evaluate findings from a survey of correlates of wire code in Connecticut with respect to potential for explaining the wire code-leukemia association. Under the presumption that the Connecticut correlations apply to the populations in which a wire code-leukemia association has been observed, only age and type of home are correlated enough to be potential explanatory factors. In particular, it appears very unlikely that traffic density can explain a significant portion of the wire code association. We suggest that correlation studies can be useful for identifying potential explanatory factors, but they must be done in regions where a wire code-childhood leukemia association has been observed.

Conditional logistic analysis of case-control studies with complex sampling.

Methods for the analysis of unmatched case-control data based on a finite population sampling model are developed. Under this model, and the prospective logistic model for disease probabilities, a likelihood for case-control data that accommodates very general sampling of controls is derived. This likelihood has the form of a weighted conditional logistic likelihood. The flexibility of the methods is illustrated by providing a number of control sampling designs and a general scheme for their analyses. These include frequency matching, counter-matching, case-base, randomized recruitment, and quota sampling. A study of risk factors for childhood asthma illustrates an application of the counter-matching design. Some asymptotic efficiency results are presented and computational methods discussed. Further, it is shown that a 'marginal' likelihood provides a link to unconditional logistic methods. The methods are examined in a simulation study that compares frequency and counter-matching using conditional and unconditional logistic analyses and indicate that the conditional logistic likelihood has superior efficiency. Extensions that accommodate sampling of cases and multistage designs are presented. Finally, we compare the analysis methods presented here to other approaches, compare counter-matching and two-stage designs, and suggest areas for further research.To whom correspondence should be addressed.

Nonrandomized comparison of surgery with and without adjuvant pelvic irradiation for patients with pT3N0 adenocarcinoma of the prostate.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the outcome of radical prostatectomy alone and compare it with that of surgery followed by planned adjuvant radiotherapy in patients with pT3N0 prostate cancer (CaP). A total of 402 patients with CaP were treated with prostatectomy, including 311 (77%) who received a planned course of adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) (surgery [S] + RT) to the prostatic fossa (median dose: 48 Gy) and 91 (23%) who had surgery alone. Patients in the former group had worse risk factors than those in the latter group, such as a higher clinical and pathologic stage (p = 0.001), higher Gleason score (p = 0.09), and higher preoperative prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level (p = 0.0001). PSA failure was defined as more than 0.05 ng/ml. Median follow-up was 59 months. The 5- and 10-year overall survival for the 311 S+RT patients was 91% and 81%, respectively, and it was similar for those 91 in the surgery-alone group, p = 0.59. The 5- and 10-year probability of freedom from PSA and/or clinical failure for the former group was 70% and 53%, respectively, whereas it was 66% and 46%, respectively, for the latter group, p = 0.72. Any recurrence developed in a total of 96 (31%) patients in the S+RT group as compared with 23 (25%) in the surgery-alone group. Local recurrence was noted in 10 (3.2%) S+RT and in 6 (6.6%) surgery-alone patients (N.S.). The time to clinical or chemical recurrence was also similar for both treatment groups (median time: 3.0 versus 3.8 years). Patients with pT3b tumors had relatively poor 5- and 10-year disease-free survival (53% and 32%, respectively, for S+RT and 38% and 0%, respectively, for surgery alone, p = 0.82). In multivariate analyses, pathologic stage and Gleason score were independent predictors of recurrence, each with p < 0.001 after controlling for the other. The worst prognostic category included patients with pT3bN0, Gleason score 7-10 disease who had 5.0 times the risk of recurrence as compared with pT3aN0, Gleason score 2-6 patients. No significant difference in disease-free survival by the treatment group was seen in Cox regression analysis controlling for pathologic stage (p = 0.59), Gleason score (p = 0.99), and PSA (p = 0.28). S+RT patients were predicted to have disease recurrence at 83% the rate of surgery-alone patients, p = 0.42. Preoperative PSA (>25 ng/ml) was predictive of recurrence (2.0 x risk) in univariate analysis, but it was not a significant predictor in multivariate analysis. It appears that moderate-dose, localized fields postoperative irradiation reduced the incidence of local recurrence in patients who were at a higher risk of recurrence as compared with those treated with surgery alone. New treatment strategies need to be developed to manage pT3bN0, Gleason score 7-10 patients whose 10-year disease-free survival was poor.

Using splines to analyse latency in the Colorado Plateau uranium miners cohort.

BACKGROUND: Different approaches have been proposed to investigate latency in epidemiologic studies where detailed exposure histories are available. METHODS: We demonstrate the application of a flexible, yet parsimonious, spline function model to investigate latency patterns for radon progeny exposure and lung cancer in the Colorado Plateau uranium miners cohort. The model extends a previously proposed bilinear model. RESULTS: The excess relative risk (ERR) reached a maximum of 0.6 per 100 working level months, for exposures received 14 years previously. The ERR then declined, and was estimated to approach zero for exposures received 35 years and more in the past. The point-wise 95% confidence intervals supported ERRs > 0 for the period 9-32 years before the event. The estimated latency curve was homogeneous across categories of attained age, duration of exposure, rate of exposure, and smoking. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed spline model is a flexible tool for latency analyses, and extends previously used methods.

Skin characteristics and risk of superficial spreading and nodular melanoma (United States).

OBJECTIVE: To assess the risk for melanoma associated with moles and pigmentary characteristics. METHODS: Representative melanoma cases (773) among non-Hispanic white residents under age 65 occurring between 1 June 1978 and I December 1983 in Los Angeles County were compared to controls (752) matched to cases by age, sex, race and neighborhood of residence. Factors considered include hair, eye, and skin color; numbers of freckles and moles; and propensity to burn and tan obtained during an in-person interview. RESULTS: Five hundred and fifty-one cases were classified as superficial spreading melanoma (SSM) and 110 as nodular melanoma (NM). For SSM, the important risk determinants were hair and skin color, freckling, and mole prevalence. Light skin and more freckles were found to be more highly associated with SSM for younger compared to older subjects, whereas the associations between SSM and both hair color and moles remained independent of age. NM showed patterns of risk similar to SSM with the exception of skin color. NM showed no evidence of increasing risk with lighter skin, as compared to the strong association seen for SSM. CONCLUSION: Hair and skin color, freckling and, especially, numbers and size of moles are important determinants of melanoma risk.

Testing linkage disequilibrium in sibships.

We describe the use of multivariate regression for testing allelic association in the presence of linkage, using marker genotype data from sibships. The test is valid, provided that the correct mean structure is modeled but does not require the correlation structure within families to be specified. The test can be implemented using standard statistical software such as the SAS programming language. In a simulation study, we evaluated this new test in comparison with one from a standard, matched-case-control analysis. First, we noted that the genetic effect needed to be quite extreme before residual familial correlation due to linkage led to false inference using the standard, matched-pair analysis. Second, we showed that under examples of extreme residual familial correlation, the new test had the correct test size. Third, we found that the test was more powerful than the sibship disequilibrium test of Horvath and Laird. Finally, we concluded that although the standard analysis may lead to correct inference for practical purposes, the new test is valid, even under extreme residual familial correlation and with no cost in power at the causal locus.

Exposure stratified case-cohort designs.

A variant of the case-cohort design is proposed for the situation in which a correlate of the exposure (or prognostic factor) of interest is available for all cohort members, and exposure information is to be collected for a case-cohort sample. The cohort is stratified according to the correlate, and the subcohort is selected by stratified random sampling. A number of possible methods for the analysis of such exposure stratified case-cohort samples are presented, some of their statistical properties developed, and approximate relative efficiency and optimal allocation to the strata discussed. The methods are compared to each other, and to randomly sampled case-cohort studies, in a limited computer simulation study. We found that all of the proposed analysis methods performed well and were more efficient than a randomly sampled case-cohort study.

Application of the missing-indicator method in matched case-control studies with incomplete data.

A common practice in matched case-control studies with incomplete data is to perform two analyses in parallel: a matched analysis of the complete pairs and an unmatched analysis of all subjects carried out after breaking the matching in the complete pairs. The missing-indicator method, which has the advantage of making use of the data in the incomplete pairs while still preserving the matching in the complete pairs, is recommended as an alternative method of analysis. It is shown here that its estimate of the odds ratio is a compromise between the odds ratios estimated by a matched analysis of the complete pairs and an unmatched analysis of the incomplete pairs. The method is illustrated using data from a matched case-control study of the risk of childhood leukemia from exposure to residential electric and magnetic fields.

Statistical methods for epidemiologic studies of the health effects of air pollution.

We describe two statistical designs that can provide efficient estimates of the health effects of exposure to air pollutants in epidemiologic studies. We also evaluate the effects of measurement error in exposure assessment on the accuracy of estimated health effects. The bidirectional case-crossover design is a variant of a method proposed by Maclure (1991). Our version of the method takes advantage of the fact that in epidemiologic studies involving environmental exposure, accurate information about past exposure is more readily available, and that levels of exposure are generally unaffected by the response of the subject. It differs from other case-crossover methods in that control information is assessed both before and after failure, thus avoiding confounding due to time trends in exposure. The multilevel analytic design provides a method of combining estimates of health effects made on the individual level with those made at the group level. It has great potential value in situations where variations in exposure within groups may not be great enough to provide adequate power to detect health effects, as is often the case in air pollution studies where exposure levels are similar within a geographic community. Measurement errors in exposure assessment can have substantial impact on the accuracy of estimated health effects. When the microenvironmental approach is used to estimate exposure, a standard error of 30% in estimating indoor/outdoor ratios can increase the standard error of a relative risk estimate by 50%, and introduce bias as well. Similar results hold when exposure is estimated with personal samplers. When the microenvironmental approach is used, errors in estimating indoor/outdoor ratios have more influence on the accuracy of risk estimation than do errors in estimating the time spent in microenvironments.

Comparison of outcomes of radical prostatectomy with and without adjuvant pelvic irradiation in patients with pathologic stage C (T3N0) adenocarcinoma of the prostate.

Patients with localized adenocarcinoma of the prostate gland (CaP) are frequently (approximately 50%) found at radical prostatectomy to have extracapsular disease or positive surgical margins. The management of these patients is a subject of controversy because some question the impact of this manifestation of CaP on patient survival or disease-free survival. Between 1976 and 1991, 241 patients with pathologic stage C (T3N0) were treated in this medical center. Of these 241 patients, 201 (83%) received a planned postoperative pelvic irradiation consisting of 48 Gy given to the prostatic fossa, whereas 40 (17%) patients were treated with radical prostatectomy alone. The two study urologists selected these patients not to receive postoperative irradiation based on intraoperative findings and important prognostic factors. Comparison of treatment outcomes in these two treatment groups is a subject of this report. The 201 patients treated with surgery-radiotherapy (S+RT) combination had a higher pathologic stage, greater incidence of seminal vesicle involvement, p = 0.002, and higher mean and median preoperative prostate-specific antigen level, p < 0.0001, than the 40 surgery (S) alone patients. There was no significant difference in the incidence of higher Gleason's score by the treatment group, p = 0.14. In univariate analysis, there was no significant difference in survival, disease-free survival, and time to failure between the two treatment groups. In multivariate analysis after controlling for pathologic stage and Gleason's score, the 201 adjuvant radiotherapy patients were predicted to have recurrence at 68% (95% confidence interval 39%-118%) the rate of the 40 surgery-alone patients. Local recurrence with or without metastatic disease was found in 10% of surgery-alone patients as compared to 5% in those also receiving postoperative irradiation. Treatment tolerance was very good with minor radiotherapy complications only. There was no significant difference in the incidence of incontinence between the two treatment arms. In summary: (a) The use of moderate-dose postoperative radiotherapy was of low toxicity and it did not increase the incidence of incontinence. (b) Local recurrence was 5% in S+RT and 10% in S-alone patients. (c) In multivariate analysis, S+RT patients had 68% rate of recurrence of S-alone patients. (d) Adjuvant RT probably reduces the risk of recurrence in patients with poor prognostic factors. (e) These data need to be interpreted with caution because of the nonrandomized nature of the study.

Correcting for exposure measurement error in a reanalysis of lung cancer mortality for the Colorado Plateau Uranium Miners cohort.

The exposure estimates used to date for the analysis of lung cancer mortality in the Colorado Plateau Uranium Miners cohort were developed from radon progeny measurements taken in mines beginning in 1951. Since uranium miners were often exposed over long periods of time and since mines were not continuously monitored, much extrapolation and/or interpolation of measured dose-rates was needed in order to develop estimates of exposure for each of the miners in the cohort. We have recently re-examined the interpolation scheme used to create the histories in the light of the fit of a statistical model for the radon progeny measurements taken in mines within the Plateau, and we have computed revised exposure estimates for the large majority of miners in the cohort. This report describes the use of these new model-based revised exposure estimates in the analysis of lung cancer mortality, using follow-up data current through 1990. Specific issues addressed here are (1) the strength of the association between exposure and risk of lung cancer mortality; (2) effects of attained age and time since exposure upon risk of lung cancer mortality; and (3) exposure-rate effects upon risk. Results using the revised exposure estimates are compared to those obtained fitting the same models using the original Public Health Service (PHS) exposure estimates. We found evidence that the new exposure histories provide a better fit to the lung cancer mortality data than do the histories based upon the original PHS dose-rate estimates. In general, the new results show a stronger overall relationship (larger slope estimate) between lung cancer mortality and exposure per unit exposure compared to those obtained with the original estimates, while displaying similar age at exposure and time since exposure effects. In the reanalysis the impact of low dose-rate exposure is found to be relatively unchanged before and after exposure error correction, while the estimate of the effect of high dose-rate exposure is considerably increased. Even after applying our measurement error corrections, evidence of inverse dose-rate effects is found, since the estimate of the impact of high dose-rate exposure is still below that of the low dose-rates. The magnitude and statistical significance, however, of the dose-rate effect estimates are diminished when fit using the revised exposure estimates.