Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting mechanical ventilation need among acutely intoxicated patients with impaired consciousness.

BACKGROUND: A considerable portion of acutely intoxicated patients is presented with impaired consciousness. Early identification of those patients who require advanced medical care, such as mechanical ventilation (MV), can improve their prognosis. METHODS: This study included 330 acutely intoxicated patients who were presented with impaired consciousness and admitted to Tanta University Poison Control Center, Egypt, in the period from January 2021 to December 2023. Patients were enrolled in derivation (257 patients) and validation (73 patients) cohorts. Patients' data were analyzed to develop and validate a predictive nomogram to determine the probability of MV need in acutely intoxicated patients. RESULTS: Significant predictors for MV need were mean arterial blood pressure (OR = 0.96, p = .014), PaO2 (OR = 0.96, p = .001), pH (OR = 0.00, p < . 001), and glucose/potassium ratio (OR = 1.59, p = .030). These four parameters were used to formulate a bedside nomogram. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis for the proposed nomogram shows that area under the curve (AUC) = 95.7%, accuracy = 93.4%, sensitivity = 88.9%, and specificity = 95.1%. The internal validation for the developed nomogram was assessed using a bootstrapping method and calibration curve. Regarding external validation, AUCs for the developed nomogram probability was 96.5%, and for predicted probability using the developed nomogram was 97.8%. CONCLUSION: The current study provides a validated nomogram that could be used as a reliable tool for the accurate prediction of MV need among acutely intoxicated patients with impaired consciousness. It could assist in the early identification of patients who will require MV, especially in low-income countries with limited resources.

Evaluation of the rate and pattern of suicide attempts and deaths by self-poisoning among Egyptians before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Background: Concerns about increased suicidal attempts, especially by self-poisoning as a consequence of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have been raised worldwide. Aim of the study: This study aimed to evaluate the rate and pattern of suicide attempts and deaths by self-poisoning among patients admitted to Tanta University Poisoning Control Center one year before and following COVID-19 pandemic declaration in Egypt. It was conducted on the medical records of 3,200 poisoned patients, from March 2019 to February 2021. Demographic, toxicological data and patients' outcomes were collected. Results: During the pandemic year, 63.8% of total admitted patients alleged suicidal self-poisoning. Adults significantly decreased from 59% to 52.3%, while adolescents significantly increased from 34.6% to 41.7%. Monthly numbers of admitted suicidal self-poisoned patients significantly decreased during the lockdown but significantly increased from 7% to 26.5%, during the peak of the second wave of the pandemic as well as suicidal deaths (increased from 1.9% to 21.2%). Suicidal self-poisoning in females increased late in the pandemic year and suicidal self-poisoning deaths were significantly reported from rural areas (P = 0.025). The delay time was significantly longer, length of hospital stay was significantly shorter, intensive care unit admission rates and suicidal deaths were significantly increased during the pandemic year (P < 0.001, 0.026, <0.001, <0.001, respectively). Phosphides were the most commonly used poison for committing suicide and suicidal deaths during this year. Conclusion: Psychological support should be directed to females and adolescents, especially from rural areas in Egypt to help reduce suicidal attempts and deaths by self-poisoning during any future pandemics and lockdowns.