Association of Geographic Distance and Hospital Characteristics With Use of Interhospital Transfer by Air: A Multicenter Retrospective Study.

OBJECTIVE: Interhospital transfer by air (IHTA) represents the majority of helicopter air ambulance transports in the United States, but the evaluation of what factors are associated with utilization has been limited. We aimed to assess the association of geographic distance and hospital characteristics (including patient volume) with the use of IHTA. METHODS: This was a multicenter, retrospective study of helicopter flight request data from 2018 provided by a convenience sample of 4 critical care transport medicine programs in 3 US census regions. Nonfederal referring hospitals located in the home state of the associated critical care transport medicine program and within 100 miles of the primary receiving facility in the region were included if complete data were available. We fit a Poisson principal component regression model incorporating geographic distance, the number of emergency department visits, the number of hospital discharges, case mix index, the number of intensive care unit beds, and the number of general beds and tested the association of the variables with helicopter emergency medical services utilization. RESULTS: A total of 106 referring hospitals were analyzed, 21 of which were hospitals identified as having a consistent request pattern. Using the hospitals with a consistent referral pattern, geographic distance had a significant positive association with flight request volume. Other variables, including emergency department visit volume, were not associated. Overall, the included variables offered poor explanatory power for the observed variation between referring facilities in the use of IHTA (r2 = 0.09). Predicted flights based on the principal component regression model for all referring hospitals suggested the majority of referring hospitals used multiple flight programs. CONCLUSION: Geographic distance is associated with the use of IHTA. Unexpectedly, most basic hospital characteristics are not associated with the use of IHTA, and the degree of variation between referring facilities that is explained by patient volume is limited. The evaluation of nonhospital factors, such as the density and availability of critical care or advanced life support ground emergency medical services resources, is needed.

Association of small adult ventilation bags with return of spontaneous circulation in out of hospital cardiac arrest.

INTRODUCTION: Little is known about the impact of tidal volumes delivered by emergency medical services (EMS) to adult patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). A large urban EMS system changed from standard adult ventilation bags to small adult bags. We hypothesized that the incidence of return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) at the end of EMS care would increase after this change. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis evaluating adults treated with advanced airway placement for nontraumatic OHCA between January 1, 2015 and December 31, 2021. We compared rates of ROSC, ventilation rate, and mean end tidal carbon dioxide (ETCO2) by minute before and after the smaller ventilation bag implementation using linear and logistic regression. RESULTS: Of the 1,994 patients included, 1,331 (67%) were treated with a small adult bag. ROSC at the end of EMS care was lower in the small bag cohort than the large bag cohort, 33% vs 40% (p = 0.003). After adjustment, small bag use was associated with lower odds of ROSC at the end of EMS care [OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.61 - 0.91]. Ventilation rates did not differ between cohorts. ETCO2 values were lower in the large bag cohort (33.2 ± 17.2 mmHg vs. 36.9 ± 19.2 mmHg, p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Use of a small adult bag during OHCA was associated with lower odds of ROSC at the end of EMS care. The effects on acid base status, hemodynamics, and delivered minute ventilation remain unclear and warrant additional study.

Air Medical Transport of a 12-Year-Old Girl With Cerebral Gas Embolism Due to Helium Inhalation.

This case report describes the initial care and transport considerations of a pediatric patient who suffered from cerebral gas embolism sustained after inhalation of helium from a pressurized tank. The patient demonstrated neurologic symptoms necessitating hyperbaric oxygen therapy and required fixed wing air transport across a mountain range from a rural community hospital to a tertiary center for the treatment. We review the pathophysiology of cerebral gas embolism and strategies for transporting patients with cerebral gas embolism and other trapped gas.

THE COMPENSATORY RESERVE INDEX FOR PREDICTING HEMORRHAGIC SHOCK IN PREHOSPITAL TRAUMA.

ABSTRACT: Background: The compensatory reserve index (CRI) is a noninvasive, continuous measure designed to detect intravascular volume loss. CRI is derived from the pulse oximetry waveform and reflects the proportion of physiologic reserve remaining before clinical hemodynamic decompensation. Methods: In this prospective, observational, prehospital cohort study, we measured CRI in injured patients transported by emergency medical services (EMS) to a single Level I trauma center. We determined whether the rolling average of CRI values over 60 s (CRI trend [CRI-T]) predicts in-hospital diagnosis of hemorrhagic shock, defined as blood product administration in the prehospital setting or within 4 h of hospital arrival. We hypothesized that lower CRI-T values would be associated with an increased likelihood of hemorrhagic shock and better predict hemorrhagic shock than prehospital vital signs. Results: Prehospital CRI was collected on 696 adult trauma patients, 21% of whom met our definition of hemorrhagic shock. The minimum CRI-T was 0.14 (interquartile range [IQR], 0.08-0.31) in those with hemorrhagic shock and 0.31 (IQR 0.15-0.50) in those without ( P = <0.0001). The positive likelihood ratio of a CRI-T value <0.2 predicting hemorrhagic shock was 1.85 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.55-2.22). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for the minimum CRI-T predicting hemorrhagic shock was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.60-0.70), which outperformed initial prehospital HR (0.56; 95% CI, 0.50-0.62) but underperformed EMS systolic blood pressure and shock index (0.74; 95% CI, 0.70-0.79 and 0.72; 95% CI, 0.67-0.77, respectively). Conclusions: Low prehospital CRI-T predicts blood product transfusion by EMS or within 4 hours of hospital arrival but is less prognostic than EMS blood pressure or shock index. The evaluated version of CRI may be useful in an austere setting at identifying injured patients that require the most significant medical resources. CRI may be improved with noise filtering to attenuate the effects of vibration and patient movement.

Video versus Direct Laryngoscopy for Tracheal Intubation of Critically Ill Adults.

BACKGROUND: Whether video laryngoscopy as compared with direct laryngoscopy increases the likelihood of successful tracheal intubation on the first attempt among critically ill adults is uncertain. METHODS: In a multicenter, randomized trial conducted at 17 emergency departments and intensive care units (ICUs), we randomly assigned critically ill adults undergoing tracheal intubation to the video-laryngoscope group or the direct-laryngoscope group. The primary outcome was successful intubation on the first attempt. The secondary outcome was the occurrence of severe complications during intubation; severe complications were defined as severe hypoxemia, severe hypotension, new or increased vasopressor use, cardiac arrest, or death. RESULTS: The trial was stopped for efficacy at the time of the single preplanned interim analysis. Among 1417 patients who were included in the final analysis (91.5% of whom underwent intubation that was performed by an emergency medicine resident or a critical care fellow), successful intubation on the first attempt occurred in 600 of the 705 patients (85.1%) in the video-laryngoscope group and in 504 of the 712 patients (70.8%) in the direct-laryngoscope group (absolute risk difference, 14.3 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], 9.9 to 18.7; P<0.001). A total of 151 patients (21.4%) in the video-laryngoscope group and 149 patients (20.9%) in the direct-laryngoscope group had a severe complication during intubation (absolute risk difference, 0.5 percentage points; 95% CI, -3.9 to 4.9). Safety outcomes, including esophageal intubation, injury to the teeth, and aspiration, were similar in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Among critically ill adults undergoing tracheal intubation in an emergency department or ICU, the use of a video laryngoscope resulted in a higher incidence of successful intubation on the first attempt than the use of a direct laryngoscope. (Funded by the U.S. Department of Defense; DEVICE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05239195.).

Wildfire facilitates upslope advance in a shade-intolerant but not a shade-tolerant conifer.

Wildfires may facilitate climate tracking of forest species moving upslope or north in latitude. For subalpine tree species, for which higher elevation habitat is limited, accelerated replacement by lower elevation montane tree species following fire may hasten extinction risk. We used a dataset of postfire tree regeneration spanning a broad geographic range to ask whether the fire facilitated upslope movement of montane tree species at the montane-to-subalpine ecotone. We sampled tree seedling occurrence in 248 plots across a fire severity gradient (unburned to >90% basal area mortality) and spanning ~500 km of latitude in Mediterranean-type subalpine forest in California, USA. We used logistic regression to quantify differences in postfire regeneration between resident subalpine species and the seedling-only range (interpreted as climate-induced range extension) of montane species. We tested our assumption of increasing climatic suitability for montane species in subalpine forest using the predicted difference in habitat suitability at study plots between 1990 and 2030. We found that postfire regeneration of resident subalpine species was uncorrelated or weakly positively correlated with fire severity. Regeneration of montane species, however, was roughly four times greater in unburned relative to burned subalpine forest. Although our overall results contrast with theoretical predictions of disturbance-facilitated range shifts, we found opposing postfire regeneration responses for montane species with distinct regeneration niches. Recruitment of shade-tolerant red fir declined with fire severity and recruitment of shade-intolerant Jeffrey pine increased with fire severity. Predicted climatic suitability increased by 5% for red fir and 34% for Jeffrey pine. Differing postfire responses in newly climatically available habitats indicate that wildfire disturbance may only facilitate range extensions for species whose preferred regeneration conditions align with increased light and/or other postfire landscape characteristics.

The energy-water limitation threshold explains divergent drought responses in tree growth, needle length, and stable isotope ratios.

Predicted increases in extreme droughts will likely cause major shifts in carbon sequestration and forest composition. Although growth declines during drought are widely documented, an increasing number of studies have reported both positive and negative responses to the same drought. These divergent growth patterns may reflect thresholds (i.e., nonlinear responses) promoted by changes in the dominant climatic constraints on tree growth. Here we tested whether stemwood growth exhibited linear or nonlinear responses to temperature and precipitation and whether stemwood growth thresholds co-occurred with multiple thresholds in source and sink processes that limit tree growth. We extracted 772 tree cores, 1398 needle length records, and 1075 stable isotope samples from 27 sites across whitebark pine's (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) climatic niche in the Sierra Nevada. Our results indicated that a temperature threshold in stemwood growth occurred at 8.4°C (7.12-9.51°C; estimated using fall-spring maximum temperature). This threshold was significantly correlated with thresholds in foliar growth, as well as carbon (δ13 C) and nitrogen (δ15 N) stable isotope ratios, that emerged during drought. These co-occurring thresholds reflected the transition between energy- and water-limited tree growth (i.e., the E-W limitation threshold). This transition likely mediated carbon and nutrient cycling, as well as important differences in growth-defense trade-offs and drought adaptations. Furthermore, whitebark pine growing in energy-limited regions may continue to experience elevated growth in response to climate change. The positive effect of warming, however, may be offset by growth declines in water-limited regions, threatening the long-term sustainability of the recently listed whitebark pine species in the Sierra Nevada.

DirEct versus VIdeo LaryngosCopE (DEVICE): protocol and statistical analysis plan for a randomised clinical trial in critically ill adults undergoing emergency tracheal intubation.

INTRODUCTION: Among critically ill patients undergoing orotracheal intubation in the emergency department (ED) or intensive care unit (ICU), failure to visualise the vocal cords and intubate the trachea on the first attempt is associated with an increased risk of complications. Two types of laryngoscopes are commonly available: direct laryngoscopes and video laryngoscopes. For critically ill adults undergoing emergency tracheal intubation, it remains uncertain whether the use of a video laryngoscope increases the incidence of successful intubation on the first attempt compared with the use of a direct laryngoscope. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The DirEct versus VIdeo LaryngosCopE (DEVICE) trial is a prospective, multicentre, non-blinded, randomised trial being conducted in 7 EDs and 10 ICUs in the USA. The trial plans to enrol up to 2000 critically ill adults undergoing orotracheal intubation with a laryngoscope. Eligible patients are randomised 1:1 to the use of a video laryngoscope or a direct laryngoscope for the first intubation attempt. The primary outcome is successful intubation on the first attempt. The secondary outcome is the incidence of severe complications between induction and 2 min after intubation, defined as the occurrence of one or more of the following: severe hypoxaemia (lowest oxygen saturation <80%); severe hypotension (systolic blood pressure <65 mm Hg or new or increased vasopressor administration); cardiac arrest or death. Enrolment began on 19 March 2022 and is expected to be completed in 2023. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The trial protocol was approved with waiver of informed consent by the single institutional review board at Vanderbilt University Medical Center and the Human Research Protection Office of the Department of Defense. The results will be presented at scientific conferences and submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT05239195).

Increase in end-tidal carbon dioxide after defibrillation predicts sustained return of spontaneous circulation during out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

INTRODUCTION: Guidelines recommend monitoring end-tidal carbon dioxide (ETCO2) during out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), though its prognostic value is poorly understood. This study investigated the relationship between ETCO2 and return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) after defibrillation in intubated non-traumatic OHCA patients. METHODS: This retrospective, observational cohort analysis included adult OHCA patients who received a defibrillation shock during treatment by an urban EMS agency from 2015 to 2021. Peak ETCO2 values were determined for the 90-second periods before and after the first defibrillation in an intubated patient (shock of interest [SOI]). Values were analyzed for association between the change in ETCO2 from pre- to post-shock and the presence of ROSC on the subsequent pulse check. RESULTS: Of 518 eligible patients, mean age was 61, 72% were male, 50% had a bystander-witnessed arrest, and 62% had at least one episode of ROSC. The most common arrest etiology was medical (92%). Among all patients, peak ETCO2 during resuscitation prior to SOI was 36.8 mmHg (18.6). ETCO2 increased in patients who achieved ROSC immediately after SOI (from 38.3 to 47.6 mmHg; +9.3 CI: 6.5, 12.1); patients with sustained ROSC experienced the greatest increase in ETCO2 after SOI (from 37.8 to 48.2 mmHg; +10.4 CI: 7.2, 13.6), while ETCO2 in patients who did not achieve ROSC after SOI rose (from 36.4 to 37.8 mmHg; +1.4 CI: -0.1, 2.8). CONCLUSIONS: ETCO2 rises after defibrillation in most patients during cardiac arrest. Patients with sustained ROSC experience larger rises, though the majority experience rises of less than 10 mmHg.

The association between arterial-end-tidal carbon dioxide difference and outcomes after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

AIM: We sought to determine if the difference between PaCO2 and ETCO2 is associated with hospital mortality and neurologic outcome following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of adult patients who achieved return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) after OHCA over 3 years. The primary exposure was the PaCO2-ETCO2 difference on hospital arrival. The primary outcome was survival to hospital discharge. The secondary outcome was favorable neurologic status at discharge. We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to determine discrimination threshold and multivariate logistic regression to examine the association between the PaCO2-ETCO2 difference and outcome. RESULTS: Of 698 OHCA patients transported to the hospitals, 381 had sustained ROSC and qualifying ETCO2 and PaCO2 values. Of these, 160 (42%) survived to hospital discharge. Mean ETCO2 was 39 mmHg among survivors and 43 mmHg among non-survivors. Mean PaCO2-ETCO2 was 6.8 mmHg and 9.0 mmHg (p < 0.05) for survivors and non-survivors. After adjustment for Utstein characteristics, a higher PaCO2-ETCO2 difference on hospital arrival was not associated with hospital mortality (OR 0.99, 95% CI: 0.97-1.0) or neurological outcome. Area under the ROC curve or PaCO2-ETCO2 difference was 0.56 (95% CI 0.51-0.62) compared with 0.58 (95% CI 0.52-0.64) for ETCO2. CONCLUSION: Neither PaCO2-ETCO2 nor ETCO2 were strong predictors of survival or neurologic status at hospital discharge. While they may be useful to guide ventilation and resuscitation, these measures should not be used for prognostication after OHCA.

Prolonged Use of an Extraglottic Airway During Air Medical Transport From a Remote Alaskan Island.

Extraglottic devices (EGDs) are important tools for airway management in the prehospital and transport medicine environment. EGDs may be used as either a primary airway or rescue device depending on the provider skill level or patient circumstances. Although EGDs do not provide a definitive airway, they can facilitate oxygenation and ventilation in select patients. This is particularly important in the remote or austere environment when difficult airways are infrequently encountered. This case report details the prolonged use of an EGD during air medical transport from a rural Alaskan medical clinic to a large academic tertiary receiving facility, with the total time until definitive airway placement of approximately 9 hours. We review the prehospital coordination and evaluation, in-flight management, and successful transfer of care of the patient to the receiving tertiary center for definitive intervention.

Investigating the Airway Opening Index during cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

INTRODUCTION: Chest compressions during CPR induce oscillations in capnography (ETCO2) waveforms. Studies suggest ETCO2 oscillation characteristics are associated with intrathoracic airflow dependent on airway patency. Oscillations can be quantified by the Airway Opening Index (AOI). We sought to evaluate multiple methods of computing AOI and their association with return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of 307 out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) cases in Seattle, WA during 2019. ETCO2 and chest impedance waveforms were annotated for the presence of intubation and CPR. We developed four methods for computing AOI based on peak ETCO2 and the oscillations in ETCO2 during chest compressions (ΔETCO2). We examined the feasibility of automating ΔETCO2 and AOI calculation and evaluated differences in AOI across the methods using nonparametric testing (α = 0.05). RESULTS: Median [interquartile range] AOI across all cases using Methods 1-4 was 28.0 % [17.9-45.5 %], 20.6 % [13.0-36.6 %], 18.3 % [11.4-30.4 %], and 22.4 % [12.8-38.5 %], respectively (p < 0.001). Cases with ROSC had a higher median AOI than those without ROSC across all methods, though not statistically significant. Cases with ROSC had a significantly higher median [interquartile range] ΔETCO2 of 7.3 mmHg [4.5-13.6 mmHg] compared to those without ROSC (4.8 mmHg [2.6-9.1 mmHg], p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: We calculated AOI using four proposed methods resulting in significantly different AOI. Additionally, AOI and ΔETCO2 were larger in cases achieving ROSC. Further investigation is required to characterize AOI's ability to predict OHCA outcomes, and whether this information can improve resuscitation care.

Novel Technologies and Techniques for Prehospital Airway Management: An NAEMSP Position Statement and Resource Document.

Novel technologies and techniques can influence airway management execution as well as procedural and clinical outcomes. While conventional wisdom underscores the need for rigorous scientific data as a foundation before implementation, high-quality supporting evidence is frequently not available for the prehospital setting. Therefore, implementation decisions are often based upon preliminary or evolving data, or pragmatic information from clinical use. When considering novel technologies and techniques. NAEMSP recommends:Prior to implementing a novel technology or technique, a thorough assessment using the best available scientific data should be conducted on the technical details of the novel approach, as well as the potential effects on operations and outcomes.The decision and degree of effort to adopt, implement, and monitor a novel technology or technique in the prehospital setting will vary by the quality of the best available scientific and clinical information:• Routine use - Technologies and techniques with ample observational but limited or no interventional clinical trial data, or with strong supporting in-hospital data. These techniques may be reasonably adopted in the prehospital setting. This includes video laryngoscopy and bougie-assisted intubation. • Limited use - Technologies and techniques with ample pragmatic clinical use information but limited supporting scientific data. These techniques may be considered in the prehospital setting. This includes suction-assisted laryngoscopy and airway decontamination and cognitive aids. • Rare use - Technologies and techniques with minimal clinical use information. Use of these techniques should be limited in the prehospital setting until evidence exists from more stable clinical environments. This includes intubation boxes.The use of novel technologies and techniques must be accompanied by systematic collection and assessment of data for the purposes of quality improvement, including linkages to patient clinical outcomes.EMS leaders should clearly identify the pathways needed to generate high-quality supporting scientific evidence for novel technologies and techniques.

Effect of Use of a Bougie vs Endotracheal Tube With Stylet on Successful Intubation on the First Attempt Among Critically Ill Patients Undergoing Tracheal Intubation: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: For critically ill adults undergoing emergency tracheal intubation, failure to intubate the trachea on the first attempt occurs in up to 20% of cases and is associated with severe hypoxemia and cardiac arrest. Whether using a tracheal tube introducer ("bougie") increases the likelihood of successful intubation compared with using an endotracheal tube with stylet remains uncertain. Objective: To determine the effect of use of a bougie vs an endotracheal tube with stylet on successful intubation on the first attempt. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Bougie or Stylet in Patients Undergoing Intubation Emergently (BOUGIE) trial was a multicenter, randomized clinical trial among 1102 critically ill adults undergoing tracheal intubation in 7 emergency departments and 8 intensive care units in the US between April 29, 2019, and February 14, 2021; the date of final follow-up was March 14, 2021. Interventions: Patients were randomly assigned to use of a bougie (n = 556) or use of an endotracheal tube with stylet (n = 546). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was successful intubation on the first attempt. The secondary outcome was the incidence of severe hypoxemia, defined as a peripheral oxygen saturation less than 80%. Results: Among 1106 patients randomized, 1102 (99.6%) completed the trial and were included in the primary analysis (median age, 58 years; 41.0% women). Successful intubation on the first attempt occurred in 447 patients (80.4%) in the bougie group and 453 patients (83.0%) in the stylet group (absolute risk difference, -2.6 percentage points [95% CI, -7.3 to 2.2]; P = .27). A total of 58 patients (11.0%) in the bougie group experienced severe hypoxemia, compared with 46 patients (8.8%) in the stylet group (absolute risk difference, 2.2 percentage points [95% CI, -1.6 to 6.0]). Esophageal intubation occurred in 4 patients (0.7%) in the bougie group and 5 patients (0.9%) in the stylet group, pneumothorax was present after intubation in 14 patients (2.5%) in the bougie group and 15 patients (2.7%) in the stylet group, and injury to oral, glottic, or thoracic structures occurred in 0 patients in the bougie group and 3 patients (0.5%) in the stylet group. Conclusions and Relevance: Among critically ill adults undergoing tracheal intubation, use of a bougie did not significantly increase the incidence of successful intubation on the first attempt compared with use of an endotracheal tube with stylet. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03928925

Met is required for oligodendrocyte progenitor cell migration in Danio rerio.

During vertebrate central nervous system development, most oligodendrocyte progenitor cells (OPCs) are specified in the ventral spinal cord and must migrate throughout the neural tube until they become evenly distributed, occupying non-overlapping domains. While this process of developmental OPC migration is well characterized, the nature of the molecular mediators that govern it remain largely unknown. Here, using zebrafish as a model, we demonstrate that Met signaling is required for initial developmental migration of OPCs, and, using cell-specific knock-down of Met signaling, show that Met acts cell-autonomously in OPCs. Taken together, these findings demonstrate in vivo, the role of Met signaling in OPC migration and provide new insight into how OPC migration is regulated during development.

Hemostatic Resuscitation of Pediatric Trauma Patients During Air Medical Transport: A Retrospective Matched Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to examine an academic air ambulance service's experience with prehospital transfusion of plasma and red blood cells in pediatric trauma for evidence of efficacy on the treatment of shock and coagulopathy. METHODS: All trauma patients < 18 years old transfused during transport by the University of Washington Airlift Northwest (Airlift) air medical transport service to Harborview Medical Center, Seattle, WA, were identified. Controls were matched 1:1 from pediatric trauma patients transported by Airlift before transfusion support became available. Demographics, injury scores, emergency department admission and interval laboratory values, blood product use, and hospital outcome measures were registered. RESULTS: Seventeen cases met the inclusion criteria and were matched by age and Injury Severity Score to 17 control patients (mean age = 10.5 vs. 10.9 years; New Injury Severity Score, 37 vs. 40.7). No significant differences in vital signs, shock index, or mortality were observed. Cases received less in-flight crystalloid (4.3 mL/kg vs. 16.9 mL/kg, P = .004), had higher admission fibrinogen levels (238 vs. 148mg/dL, P = .007), and shorter time to normalization of the international normalized ratio (6.4 vs. 19.1 hours, P = .04). CONCLUSIONS: In this small series, hemostatic resuscitation during air medical transport was associated with less crystalloid administration and better support of coagulation indices.

Nonlinear shifts in infectious rust disease due to climate change.

Range shifts of infectious plant disease are expected under climate change. As plant diseases move, emergent abiotic-biotic interactions are predicted to modify their distributions, leading to unexpected changes in disease risk. Evidence of these complex range shifts due to climate change, however, remains largely speculative. Here, we combine a long-term study of the infectious tree disease, white pine blister rust, with a six-year field assessment of drought-disease interactions in the southern Sierra Nevada. We find that climate change between 1996 and 2016 moved the climate optimum of the disease into higher elevations. The nonlinear climate change-disease relationship contributed to an estimated 5.5 (4.4-6.6) percentage points (p.p.) decline in disease prevalence in arid regions and an estimated 6.8 (5.8-7.9) p.p. increase in colder regions. Though climate change likely expanded the suitable area for blister rust by 777.9 (1.0-1392.9) km2 into previously inhospitable regions, the combination of host-pathogen and drought-disease interactions contributed to a substantial decrease (32.79%) in mean disease prevalence between surveys. Specifically, declining alternate host abundance suppressed infection probabilities at high elevations, even as climatic conditions became more suitable. Further, drought-disease interactions varied in strength and direction across an aridity gradient-likely decreasing infection risk at low elevations while simultaneously increasing infection risk at high elevations. These results highlight the critical role of aridity in modifying host-pathogen-drought interactions. Variation in aridity across topographic gradients can strongly mediate plant disease range shifts in response to climate change.

Prehospital end-tidal carbon dioxide predicts hemorrhagic shock upon emergency department arrival.

BACKGROUND: In addition to reflecting gas exchange within the lungs, end-tidal carbon dioxide (ETCO2) also reflects cardiac output based on CO2 delivery to the pulmonary parenchyma. We hypothesized that low prehospital ETCO2 values would be predictive of hemorrhagic shock in intubated trauma patients. METHODS: A retrospective observational study of adult trauma patients intubated in the prehospital setting and transported to a single Level I trauma center from 2016 to 2019. Continuous prehospital ETCO2 data were linked with patient care registries. We developed a novel analytic approach that allows for reflection of prehospital ETCO2 over the entire prehospital course of care. The primary outcome was hemorrhagic shock on emergency department (ED) presentation, defined as either initial ED systolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or less or initial Shock Index (SI) > 0.9, and transfusion of at least one unit of blood product during their ED stay. Prehospital ETCO2 less than 25 mm Hg was evaluated for predictive value of hemorrhagic shock. RESULTS: Three hundred and seven patients (82% men, 34% penetrating injury, 42% in hemorrhagic shock on ED arrival, 27% mortality) were included in the study. Patients in hemorrhagic shock had lower median ETCO2 values (26.5 mm Hg vs. 32.5 mm Hg; p < 0.001) than those not in hemorrhagic shock. Patients with prehospital ETCO2 less than 25 mm Hg were 3.0 times (adjusted odds ratio = 3.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-7.9) more likely to be in hemorrhagic shock upon ED arrival than patients with ETCO2 ≥ 25 mm Hg. CONCLUSION: Intubated patients with hemorrhagic shock upon ED arrival had significantly lower prehospital ETCO2 values. Incorporating ETCO2 assessment into prehospital care for trauma patients could support decisions regarding prehospital blood transfusion, and triage to higher-level trauma centers, and trauma team activation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic, level III.