Emergent trade-offs among plasticity strategies in mixotrophs.

Marine mixotrophs combine phagotrophy and phototrophy to acquire the resources they need for growth. Metabolic plasticity, the ability for individuals to dynamically alter their relative investment between different metabolic processes, allows mixotrophs to efficiently exploit variable environmental conditions. Different mixotrophs may vary in how quickly they respond to environmental stimuli, with slow-responding mixotrophs exhibiting a significant lag between a change in the environment and the resulting change metabolic strategy. In this study, we develop a model of mixotroph metabolic strategy and explore how the rate of the plastic response affects the seasonality, competitive fitness, and biogeochemical role of mixotroph populations. Fast-responding mixotrophs are characterized by more efficient resource use and higher average growth rates than slow-responding mixotrophs because any lag in the plastic response following a change in environmental conditions creates a mismatch between the mixotroph's metabolic requirements and their resource acquisition. However, this mismatch also results in increased storage of unused resources that support growth under future nutrient-limited conditions. As a result of this trade-off, mixotroph biomass and productivity are maximized at intermediate plastic response rates. Furthermore, the trade-off represents a mechanism for coexistence between fast-responding and slow-responding mixotrophs. In mixed communities, fast-responding mixotrophs are numerically dominant, but slow-responding mixotrophs persist at low abundance due to the provisioning effect that emerges as a result of their less efficient resource acquisition strategy. In addition to increased competitive ability, fast-responding mixotrophs are, on average, more autotrophic than slow-responding mixotrophs. Notably, these trade-offs associated with mixotroph response rate arise without including an explicit physiological cost associated with plasticity, a conclusion that may provide insight into evolutionary constraints of metabolic plasticity in mixotrophic organisms. When an explicit cost is added to the model, it alters the competitive relationships between fast- and slow-responding mixotrophs. Faster plastic response rates are favored by lower physiological costs as well as higher amplitude seasonal cycles.

Projected 21st-century changes in marine heterotrophic bacteria under climate change.

Marine heterotrophic Bacteria (or referred to as bacteria) play an important role in the ocean carbon cycle by utilizing, respiring, and remineralizing organic matter exported from the surface to deep ocean. Here, we investigate the responses of bacteria to climate change using a three-dimensional coupled ocean biogeochemical model with explicit bacterial dynamics as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. First, we assess the credibility of the century-scale projections (2015-2099) of bacterial carbon stock and rates in the upper 100 m layer using skill scores and compilations of the measurements for the contemporary period (1988-2011). Second, we demonstrate that across different climate scenarios, the simulated bacterial biomass trends (2076-2099) are sensitive to the regional trends in temperature and organic carbon stocks. Bacterial carbon biomass declines by 5-10% globally, while it increases by 3-5% in the Southern Ocean where semi-labile dissolved organic carbon (DOC) stocks are relatively low and particle-attached bacteria dominate. While a full analysis of drivers underpinning the simulated changes in all bacterial stock and rates is not possible due to data constraints, we investigate the mechanisms of the changes in DOC uptake rates of free-living bacteria using the first-order Taylor decomposition. The results demonstrate that the increase in semi-labile DOC stocks drives the increase in DOC uptake rates in the Southern Ocean, while the increase in temperature drives the increase in DOC uptake rates in the northern high and low latitudes. Our study provides a systematic analysis of bacteria at global scale and a critical step toward a better understanding of how bacteria affect the functioning of the biological carbon pump and partitioning of organic carbon pools between surface and deep layers.

Influence of Particle Size and Fragmentation on Large-Scale Microplastic Transport in the Mediterranean Sea.

Microplastic particles move three-dimensionally through the ocean, but modeling studies often do not consider size-dependent vertical transport processes. In addition, microplastic fragmentation in ocean environments remains poorly understood, despite fragments making up the majority of microplastic pollution in terms of the number of particles and despite its potential role in mass removal. Here, we first investigate the role of particle size and density on the large-scale transport of microplastics in the Mediterranean Sea and next analyze how fragmentation may affect transport and mass loss of plastics. For progressively smaller particle sizes, microplastics are shown to be less likely to be beached and more likely to reach open water. Smaller particles also generally get mixed deeper, resulting in lower near-surface concentrations of small particles despite their higher total abundance. Microplastic fragmentation is shown to be dominated by beach-based fragmentation, with ocean-based fragmentation processes likely having negligible influence. However, fragmentation remains a slow process acting on decadal time scales and as such likely does not have a major influence on the large-scale distribution of microplastics and mass loss over periods less than 3 years.

The quest for the missing plastics: Large uncertainties in river plastic export into the sea.

Plastic pollution in the natural environment is causing increasing concern at both the local and global scale. Understanding the dispersion of plastic through the environment is of key importance for the effective implementation of preventive measures and cleanup strategies. Over the past few years, various models have been developed to estimate the transport of plastics in rivers, using limited plastic observations in river systems. However, there is a large discrepancy between the amount of plastic being modelled to leave the river systems, and the amount of plastic that has been found in the seas and oceans. Here, we investigate one of the possible causes of this mismatch by performing an extensive uncertainty analysis of the riverine plastic export estimates. We examine the uncertainty from the homogenisation of observations, model parameter uncertainty, and underlying assumptions in models. To this end, we use the to-date most complete time-series of macroplastic observations (macroplastics have been found to contain most of the plastic mass transported by rivers), coming from three European rivers. The results show that model structure and parameter uncertainty causes up to four orders of magnitude, while the homogenisation of plastic observations introduces an additional three orders of magnitude uncertainty in the estimates. Additionally, most global models assume that variations in the plastic flux are primarily driven by river discharge. However, we show that correlations between river discharge (and other environmental drivers) and the plastic flux are never above 0.5, and strongly vary between catchments. Overall, we conclude that the yearly plastic load in rivers remains poorly constrained.

Incorporating terrain specific beaching within a lagrangian transport plastics model for Lake Erie.

Mass estimates of plastic pollution in the Great Lakes based on surface samples differ by orders of magnitude from what is predicted by production and input rates. It has been theorized that a potential location of this missing plastic is on beaches and in nearshore water. We incorporate a terrain dependent beaching model to an existing hydrodynamic model for Lake Erie which includes three dimensional advection, turbulent mixing, density driven sinking, and deposition into the sediment. When examining parameter choices, in all simulations the majority of plastic in the lake is beached, potentially identifying a reservoir holding a large percentage of the lake's plastic which in previous studies has not been taken into account. The absolute amount of beached plastic is dependent on the parameter choices. We also find beached plastic does not accumulate homogeneously through the lake, with eastern regions of the lake, especially those downstream of population centers, most likely to be impacted. This effort constitutes a step towards identifying sinks of missing plastic in large bodies of water.

Global Modeled Sinking Characteristics of Biofouled Microplastic.

Microplastic debris ending up at the sea surface has become a known major environmental issue. However, how microplastic particles move and when they sink in the ocean remains largely unknown. Here, we model microplastic subject to biofouling (algal growth on a substrate) to estimate sinking timescales and the time to reach the depth where particles stop sinking. We combine NEMO-MEDUSA 2.0 output, that represents hydrodynamic and biological properties of seawater, with a particle-tracking framework. Different sizes and densities of particles (for different types of plastic) are simulated, showing that the global distribution of sinking timescales is largely size-dependent as opposed to density-dependent. The smallest particles we simulate (0.1 µm) start sinking almost immediately around the globe and their trajectories take the longest time to reach their first sinking depth (relative to larger particles). In oligotrophic subtropical gyres with low algal concentrations, particles between 1 and 0.01 mm do not sink within the simulation time of 90 days. This suggests that in addition to the comparatively well-known physical processes, biological processes might also contribute to the accumulation of floating plastic (of 1-0.01 mm) in subtropical gyres. Particles of 1 µm in the gyres start sinking largely due to vertical advection, whereas in the equatorial Pacific they are more dependent on biofouling. The qualitative impacts of seasonality on sinking timescales are small, however, localized sooner sinking due to spring algal blooms is seen. This study maps processes that affect the sinking of virtual microplastic globally, which could ultimately impact the ocean plastic budget.

High-impact marine heatwaves attributable to human-induced global warming.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs)-periods of extremely high ocean temperatures in specific regions-have occurred in all of Earth's ocean basins over the past two decades, with severe negative impacts on marine organisms and ecosystems. However, for most individual MHWs, it is unclear to what extent they have been altered by human-induced climate change. We show that the occurrence probabilities of the duration, intensity, and cumulative intensity of most documented, large, and impactful MHWs have increased more than 20-fold as a result of anthropogenic climate change. MHWs that occurred only once every hundreds to thousands of years in the preindustrial climate are projected to become decadal to centennial events under 1.5°C warming conditions and annual to decadal events under 3°C warming conditions. Thus, ambitious climate targets are indispensable to reduce the risks of substantial MHW impacts.

Light-dependent grazing can drive formation and deepening of deep chlorophyll maxima.

Deep Chlorophyll Maxima (DCMs) are subsurface peaks in chlorophyll-a concentration that may coincide with peaks in phytoplankton abundance and primary productivity. Work on the mechanisms underlying DCM formation has historically focused on phytoplankton physiology (e.g., photoacclimation) and behavior (e.g., taxis). While these mechanisms can drive DCM formation, they do not account for top-down controls such as predation by grazers. Here, we propose a new mechanism for DCM formation: Light-dependent grazing by microzooplankton reduces phytoplankton biomass near the surface but allows accumulation at depth. Using mathematical models informed by grazing studies, we demonstrate that light-dependent grazing is sufficient to drive DCM formation. Further, when acting in concert with other mechanisms, light-dependent grazing deepens the DCM, improving the fit of a global model with observational data. Our findings thus reveal another mechanism by which microzooplankton may regulate primary production, and impact our understanding of biogeochemical cycling at and above the DCM.

Emerging risks from marine heat waves.

Recent marine heat waves have caused devastating impacts on marine ecosystems. Substantial progress in understanding past and future changes in marine heat waves and their risks for marine ecosystems is needed to predict how marine systems, and the goods and services they provide, will evolve in the future.