Comparison of Bayesian and frequentist monitoring boundaries motivated by the Multiplatform Randomized Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic highlighted the need to conduct efficient randomized clinical trials with interim monitoring guidelines for efficacy and futility. Several randomized coronavirus disease 2019 trials, including the Multiplatform Randomized Clinical Trial (mpRCT), used Bayesian guidelines with the belief that they would lead to quicker efficacy or futility decisions than traditional "frequentist" guidelines, such as spending functions and conditional power. We explore this belief using an intuitive interpretation of Bayesian methods as translating prior opinion about the treatment effect into imaginary prior data. These imaginary observations are then combined with actual observations from the trial to make conclusions. Using this approach, we show that the Bayesian efficacy boundary used in mpRCT is actually quite similar to the frequentist Pocock boundary. METHODS: The mpRCT's efficacy monitoring guideline considered stopping if, given the observed data, there was greater than 99% probability that the treatment was effective (odds ratio greater than 1). The mpRCT's futility monitoring guideline considered stopping if, given the observed data, there was greater than 95% probability that the treatment was less than 20% effective (odds ratio less than 1.2). The mpRCT used a normal prior distribution that can be thought of as supplementing the actual patients' data with imaginary patients' data. We explore the effects of varying probability thresholds and the prior-to-actual patient ratio in the mpRCT and compare the resulting Bayesian efficacy monitoring guidelines to the well-known frequentist Pocock and O'Brien-Fleming efficacy guidelines. We also contrast Bayesian futility guidelines with a more traditional 20% conditional power futility guideline. RESULTS: A Bayesian efficacy and futility monitoring boundary using a neutral, weakly informative prior distribution and a fixed probability threshold at all interim analyses is more aggressive than the commonly used O'Brien-Fleming efficacy boundary coupled with a 20% conditional power threshold for futility. The trade-off is that more aggressive boundaries tend to stop trials earlier, but incur a loss of power. Interestingly, the Bayesian efficacy boundary with 99% probability threshold is very similar to the classic Pocock efficacy boundary. CONCLUSIONS: In a pandemic where quickly weeding out ineffective treatments and identifying effective treatments is paramount, aggressive monitoring may be preferred to conservative approaches, such as the O'Brien-Fleming boundary. This can be accomplished with either Bayesian or frequentist methods.

Preexisting Diabetes Mellitus and All-Cause Mortality in Adult Patients With Sepsis: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: We assessed the association of preexisting diabetes mellitus with all-cause mortality and organ support receipt in adult patients with sepsis. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: Ontario, Canada (2008-2019). POPULATION: Adult patients (18 yr old or older) with a first sepsis-related hospitalization episode. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The main exposure of interest was preexisting diabetes (either type 1 or 2). The primary outcome was all-cause mortality by 90 days; secondary outcomes included receipt of invasive mechanical ventilation and new renal replacement therapy. We report adjusted (for baseline characteristics using standardization) risk ratios (RRs) alongside 95% CIs. A main secondary analysis evaluated the potential mediation by prior metformin use of the association between preexisting diabetes and all-cause mortality following sepsis. Overall, 503,455 adults with a first sepsis-related hospitalization episode were included; 36% had preexisting diabetes. Mean age was 73 years, and 54% of the cohort were females. Preexisting diabetes was associated with a lower adjusted risk of all-cause mortality at 90 days (RR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.80-0.82). Preexisting diabetes was associated with an increased risk of new renal replacement therapy (RR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.46-1.60) but not invasive mechanical ventilation (RR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.00-1.05). Overall, 21% (95% CI, 19-28) of the association between preexisting diabetes and reduced risk of all-cause mortality was mediated by prior metformin use. CONCLUSIONS: Preexisting diabetes is associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality and higher risk of new renal replacement therapy among adult patients with sepsis. Future studies should evaluate the underlying mechanisms of these associations.

Modes of Death in Patients with Cardiogenic Shock in the Cardiac Intensive Care Unit: A Report from the Critical Care Cardiology Trials Network.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data on how patients with cardiogenic shock (CS) die. METHODS: The Critical Care Cardiology Trials Network is a research network of cardiac intensive care units coordinated by the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) Study Group (Boston, MA). Using standardized definitions, site investigators classified direct modes of in-hospital death for CS admissions (October 2021 to September 2022). Mutually exclusive categories included 4 modes of cardiovascular death and 4 modes of noncardiovascular death. Subgroups defined by CS type, preceding cardiac arrest (CA), use of temporary mechanical circulatory support (tMCS), and transition to comfort measures were evaluated. RESULTS: Among 1068 CS cases, 337 (31.6%) died during the index hospitalization. Overall, the mode of death was cardiovascular in 82.2%. Persistent CS was the dominant specific mode of death (66.5%), followed by arrhythmia (12.8%), anoxic brain injury (6.2%), and respiratory failure (4.5%). Patients with preceding CA were more likely to die from anoxic brain injury (17.1% vs 0.9%; P < .001) or arrhythmia (21.6% vs 8.4%; P < .001). Patients managed with tMCS were more likely to die from persistent shock (P < .01), both cardiogenic (73.5% vs 62.0%) and noncardiogenic (6.1% vs 2.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Most deaths in CS are related to direct cardiovascular causes, particularly persistent CS. However, there is important heterogeneity across subgroups defined by preceding CA and the use of tMCS.

Prognostic performance of the IABP-SHOCK II Risk Score among cardiogenic shock subtypes in the critical care cardiology trials network registry.

BACKGROUND: Risk stratification has potential to guide triage and decision-making in cardiogenic shock (CS). We assessed the prognostic performance of the IABP-SHOCK II score, derived in Europe for acute myocardial infarct-related CS (AMI-CS), in a contemporary North American cohort, including different CS phenotypes. METHODS: The critical care cardiology trials network (CCCTN) coordinated by the TIMI study group is a multicenter network of cardiac intensive care units (CICU). Participating centers annually contribute ≥2 months of consecutive medical CICU admissions. The IABP-SHOCK II risk score includes age > 73 years, prior stroke, admission glucose > 191 mg/dl, creatinine > 1.5 mg/dl, lactate > 5 mmol/l, and post-PCI TIMI flow grade < 3. We assessed the risk score across various CS etiologies. RESULTS: Of 17,852 medical CICU admissions 5,340 patients across 35 sites were admitted with CS. In patients with AMI-CS (n = 912), the IABP-SHOCK II score predicted a >3-fold gradient in in-hospital mortality (low risk = 26.5%, intermediate risk = 52.2%, high risk = 77.5%, P < .0001; c-statistic = 0.67; Hosmer-Lemeshow P = .79). The score showed a similar gradient of in-hospital mortality in patients with non-AMI-related CS (n = 2,517, P < .0001) and mixed shock (n = 923, P < .001), as well as in left ventricular (<0.0001), right ventricular (P = .0163) or biventricular (<0.0001) CS. The correlation between the IABP-SHOCK II score and SOFA was moderate (r2 = 0.17) and the IABP-SHOCK II score revealed a significant risk gradient within each SCAI stage. CONCLUSIONS: In an unselected international multicenter registry of patients admitted with CS, the IABP- SHOCK II score only moderately predicted in-hospital mortality in a broad population of CS regardless of etiology or irrespective of right, left, or bi-ventricular involvement.

Clinical phenotypes of cardiogenic shock survivors: insights into late host responses and long-term outcomes.

AIMS: An elevated risk of adverse events persists for years in cardiogenic shock (CS) survivors with high mortality rate and physical/mental disability. This study aims to link clinical CS-survivor phenotypes with distinct late host-response patterns at intensive care unit (ICU) discharge and long-term outcomes using model-based clustering. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the original prospective, observational, international French and European Outcome Registry in Intensive Care Units (FROG-ICU) study, ICU patients with CS on admission were identified (N = 228). Among them, 173 were discharged alive from the ICU and included in the current study. Latent class analysis was applied to identify distinct CS-survivor phenotypes at ICU discharge using 15 readily available clinical and laboratory variables. The primary endpoint was 1 year of mortality after ICU discharge. Secondary endpoints were readmission and physical/mental disability [short form-36 questionnaire (SF-36) score] within 1 year after ICU discharge. Two distinct phenotypes at ICU discharge were identified (A and B). Patients in Phenotype B (38%) were more anaemic and had higher circulating levels of lactate, sustained kidney injury, and persistent elevation in plasma markers of inflammation, myocardial fibrosis, and endothelial dysfunction compared with Phenotype A. They had also a higher rate of non-ischaemic origin of CS and right ventricular dysfunction on admission. CS survivors in Phenotype B had higher 1 year of mortality compared with Phenotype A (P = 0.045, Kaplan-Meier analysis). When adjusted for traditional risk factors (i.e. age, severity of illness, and duration of ICU stay), Phenotype B was independently associated with 1 year of mortality [adjusted hazard ratio = 2.83 (95% confidence interval 1.21-6.60); P = 0.016]. There was a significantly lower physical quality of life in Phenotype B patients at 3 months (i.e. SF-36 physical component score). CONCLUSIONS: A phenotype with sustained inflammation, myocardial fibrosis, and endothelial dysfunction at ICU discharge was identified from readily available data and was independently associated with poor long-term outcomes in CS survivors.

Ketone production and excretion even during mild hyperglycemia and the impact of sodium-glucose co-transporter inhibition in type 1 diabetes.

AIMS: We aimed to determine if ketone production and excretion are increased even at mild fasting hyperglycemia in type 1 diabetes (T1D) and if these are modified by ketoacidosis risk factors, including sodium-glucose co-transporter inhibition (SGLTi) and female sex. METHODS: In secondary analysis of an 8-week single-arm open-label trial of empagliflozin (NCT01392560) we evaluated ketone concentrations during extended fasting and clamped euglycemia (4-6 mmol/L) and mild hyperglycemia (9-11 mmol/L) prior to and after treatment. Plasma and urine beta-hydroxybutyrate (BHB) concentrations and fractional excretion were analyzed by metabolomic analysis. RESULTS: Forty participants (50 % female), aged 24 ± 5 years, HbA1c 8.0 ± 0.9 % (64 ± 0.08 mmol/mol) with T1D duration of 17.5 ± 7 years, were studied. Increased BHB production even during mild hyperglycemia (median urine 6.3[3.5-13.6] vs. 3.5[2.2-7.0] µmol/mmol creatinine during euglycemia, p < 0.001) was compensated by increased fractional excretion (0.9 % [0.3-1.6] vs. 0.4 % [0.2-0.9], p < 0.001). SGLTi increased production and attenuated the increased BHB fractional excretion (decreased to 0.3 % during mild hyperglycemia, p < 0.001), resulting in higher plasma concentrations (increased to 0.21 [0.05-0.40] mmol/L, p < 0.001), particularly in females (interaction p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Even mild hyperglycemia is associated with greater ketone production, compensated by urinary excretion, in T1D. However, SGLTi exaggerates production and partially reduces compensatory excretion, particularly in women.

Symptoms and Impaired Quality of Life After COVID-19 Hospitalization: Effect of Therapeutic Heparin in Non-ICU Patients in the Accelerating COVID-19 Therapeutic Interventions and Vaccines 4 Acute Trial: Effect on 3-Month Symptoms and Quality of Life.

BACKGROUND: Therapeutic-dose heparin decreased days requiring organ support in noncritically ill patients hospitalized for COVID-19, but its impact on persistent symptoms or quality of life (QOL) is unclear. RESEARCH QUESTION: In the Accelerating COVID-19 Therapeutic Interventions and Vaccines 4 ACUTE (ACTIV-4a) trial, was randomization of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 illness to therapeutic-dose vs prophylactic heparin associated with fewer symptoms and better QOL at 90 days? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This was an open-label randomized controlled trial at 34 hospitals in the United States and Spain. A total of 727 noncritically ill patients hospitalized for COVID-19 from September 2020 to June 2021 were randomized to therapeutic-dose vs prophylactic heparin. Only patients with 90-day data on symptoms and QOL were analyzed. We ascertained symptoms and QOL by the EQ-5D-5L at 90-day follow-up in a preplanned analysis for the ACTIV-4a trial. Individual domains assessed by the EQ-5D-5L included mobility, self-care, usual activities, pain/discomfort, and anxiety/depression. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed. RESULTS: Among 571 patients, 288 (50.4%) reported at least one symptom. Among 410 patients, 148 (36.1%) reported moderate to severe impairment in one or more domains of the EQ-5D-5L. The presence of 90-day symptoms was associated with moderate-severe impairment in the EQ-5D-5L domains of mobility (adjusted OR [aOR], 2.37; 95% CI, 1.22-4.59), usual activities (aOR, 3.66; 95% CI, 1.75-7.65), pain (aOR, 2.43; 95% CI, 1.43-4.12), and anxiety (aOR, 4.32; 95% CI, 2.06-9.02), compared with patients reporting no symptoms There were no differences in symptoms or in the overall EQ-5D-5L index score between treatment groups. Therapeutic-dose heparin was associated with less moderate-severe impairment in all physical functioning domains (mobility, self-care, usual activities) but was independently significant only in the self-care domain (aOR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.11-0.96). INTERPRETATION: In a randomized controlled trial of hospitalized noncritically ill patients with COVID-19, therapeutic-dose heparin was associated with less severe impairment in the self-care domain of EQ-5D-5L. However, this type of impairment was uncommon, affecting 23 individuals. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT04505774; URL: www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov.

Extending the 'host response' paradigm from sepsis to cardiogenic shock: evidence, limitations and opportunities.

Recent clinical and research efforts in cardiogenic shock (CS) have largely focussed on the restoration of the low cardiac output state that is the conditio sine qua non of the clinical syndrome. This approach has failed to translate into improved outcomes, and mortality has remained static at 30-50%. There is an unmet need to better delineate the pathobiology of CS to understand the observed heterogeneity of presentation and treatment effect and to identify novel therapeutic targets. Despite data in other critical illness syndromes, specifically sepsis, the role of dysregulated inflammation and immunity is hitherto poorly described in CS. High-dimensional molecular profiling, particularly through leukocyte transcriptomics, may afford opportunity to better characterise subgroups of patients with shared mechanisms of immune dysregulation. In this state-of-the-art review, we outline the rationale for considering molecular subtypes of CS. We describe how high-dimensional molecular technologies can be used to identify these subtypes, and whether they share biological features with sepsis and other critical illness states. Finally, we propose how the identification of molecular subtypes of patients may enrich future clinical trial design and identification of novel therapies for CS.

Pharmacologic and Genetic Downregulation of Proprotein Convertase Subtilisin/Kexin Type 9 and Survival From Sepsis.

OBJECTIVES: Treatments that prevent sepsis complications are needed. Circulating lipid and protein assemblies-lipoproteins play critical roles in clearing pathogens from the bloodstream. We investigated whether early inhibition of proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) may accelerate bloodstream clearance of immunogenic bacterial lipids and improve sepsis outcomes. DESIGN: Genetic and clinical epidemiology, and experimental models. SETTING: Human genetics cohorts, secondary analysis of a phase 3 randomized clinical trial enrolling patients with cardiovascular disease (Evaluation of Cardiovascular Outcomes After an Acute Coronary Syndrome During Treatment With Alirocumab [ODYSSEY OUTCOMES]; NCT01663402), and experimental murine models of sepsis. PATIENTS OR SUBJECTS: Nine human cohorts with sepsis (total n = 12,514) were assessed for an association between sepsis mortality and PCSK9 loss-of-function (LOF) variants. Incident or fatal sepsis rates were evaluated among 18,884 participants in a post hoc analysis of ODYSSEY OUTCOMES. C57BI/6J mice were used in Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia sepsis models, and in lipopolysaccharide-induced animal models. INTERVENTIONS: Observational human cohort studies used genetic PCSK9 LOF variants as instrumental variables. ODYSSEY OUTCOMES participants were randomized to alirocumab or placebo. Mice were administered alirocumab, a PCSK9 inhibitor, at 5 mg/kg or 25 mg/kg subcutaneously, or isotype-matched control, 48 hours prior to the induction of bacterial sepsis. Mice did not receive other treatments for sepsis. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Across human cohort studies, the effect estimate for 28-day mortality after sepsis diagnosis associated with genetic PCSK9 LOF was odds ratio = 0.86 (95% CI, 0.67-1.10; p = 0.24). A significant association was present in antibiotic-treated patients. In ODYSSEY OUTCOMES, sepsis frequency and mortality were infrequent and did not significantly differ by group, although both were numerically lower with alirocumab vs. placebo (relative risk of death from sepsis for alirocumab vs. placebo, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.32-1.20; p = 0.15). Mice treated with alirocumab had lower endotoxin levels and improved survival. CONCLUSIONS: PCSK9 inhibition may improve clinical outcomes in sepsis in preventive, pretreatment settings.

Standardized Definitions for Cardiogenic Shock Research and Mechanical Circulatory Support Devices: Scientific Expert Panel From the Shock Academic Research Consortium (SHARC).

The Shock Academic Research Consortium is a multi-stakeholder group, including representatives from the US Food and Drug Administration and other government agencies, industry, and payers, convened to develop pragmatic consensus definitions useful for the evaluation of clinical trials enrolling patients with cardiogenic shock, including trials evaluating mechanical circulatory support devices. Several in-person and virtual meetings were convened between 2020 and 2022 to discuss the need for developing the standardized definitions required for evaluation of mechanical circulatory support devices in clinical trials for cardiogenic shock patients. The expert panel identified key concepts and topics by performing literature reviews, including previous clinical trials, while recognizing current challenges and the need to advance evidence-based practice and statistical analysis to support future clinical trials. For each category, a lead (primary) author was assigned to perform a literature search and draft a proposed definition, which was presented to the subgroup. These definitions were further modified after feedback from the expert panel meetings until a consensus was reached. This manuscript summarizes the expert panel recommendations focused on outcome definitions, including efficacy and safety.

Simvastatin in Critically Ill Patients with Covid-19.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of simvastatin in critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is unclear. METHODS: In an ongoing international, multifactorial, adaptive platform, randomized, controlled trial, we evaluated simvastatin (80 mg daily) as compared with no statin (control) in critically ill patients with Covid-19 who were not receiving statins at baseline. The primary outcome was respiratory and cardiovascular organ support-free days, assessed on an ordinal scale combining in-hospital death (assigned a value of -1) and days free of organ support through day 21 in survivors; the analyis used a Bayesian hierarchical ordinal model. The adaptive design included prespecified statistical stopping criteria for superiority (>99% posterior probability that the odds ratio was >1) and futility (>95% posterior probability that the odds ratio was <1.2). RESULTS: Enrollment began on October 28, 2020. On January 8, 2023, enrollment was closed on the basis of a low anticipated likelihood that prespecified stopping criteria would be met as Covid-19 cases decreased. The final analysis included 2684 critically ill patients. The median number of organ support-free days was 11 (interquartile range, -1 to 17) in the simvastatin group and 7 (interquartile range, -1 to 16) in the control group; the posterior median adjusted odds ratio was 1.15 (95% credible interval, 0.98 to 1.34) for simvastatin as compared with control, yielding a 95.9% posterior probability of superiority. At 90 days, the hazard ratio for survival was 1.12 (95% credible interval, 0.95 to 1.32), yielding a 91.9% posterior probability of superiority of simvastatin. The results of secondary analyses were consistent with those of the primary analysis. Serious adverse events, such as elevated levels of liver enzymes and creatine kinase, were reported more frequently with simvastatin than with control. CONCLUSIONS: Although recruitment was stopped because cases had decreased, among critically ill patients with Covid-19, simvastatin did not meet the prespecified criteria for superiority to control. (REMAP-CAP ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02735707.).

Effects of inflammation on thrombosis and outcomes in COVID-19: secondary analysis of the ATTACC/ACTIV-4a trial.

Background: Patients hospitalized for COVID-19 are at high risk of thrombotic complications and organ failure, and often exhibit severe inflammation, which may contribute to hypercoagulability. Objectives: To determine whether patients hospitalized for COVID-19 experience differing frequencies of thrombotic and organ failure complications and derive variable benefits from therapeutic-dose heparin dependent on the extent of systemic inflammation and whether observed benefit from therapeutic-dose anticoagulation varies depending on the degree of systemic inflammation. Methods: We analyzed data from 1346 patients hospitalized for COVID-19 enrolled in the ATTACC and ACTIV-4a platforms who were randomized to therapeutic-dose heparin or usual care for whom levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) were reported at baseline. Results: Increased CRP was associated with worse patient outcomes, including a >98% posterior probability of increased organ support requirement, hospital length of stay, risk of 28-day mortality, and incidence of major thrombotic events or death (patients with CRP 40-100 mg/L or ≥100 mg/L compared to patients with CRP <40 mg/L). Patients with CRP 40 to 100 mg/L experienced the greatest degree of benefit from treatment with therapeutic doses of unfractionated or low molecular weight heparin compared with usual-care prophylactic doses. This was most significant for an increase in organ support-free days (odds ratio: 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-2.40; 97.9% posterior probability of beneficial effect), with trends toward benefit for other evaluated outcomes. Conclusion: Moderately ill patients hospitalized for COVID-19 with CRP between 40 mg/L and 100 mg/L derived the greatest benefit from treatment with therapeutic-dose heparin.

Distinct host-response signatures in circulatory shock: a narrative review.

Circulatory shock is defined syndromically as hypotension associated with tissue hypoperfusion and often subcategorized according to hemodynamic profile (e.g., distributive, cardiogenic, hypovolemic) and etiology (e.g., infection, myocardial infarction, trauma, among others). These shock subgroups are generally considered homogeneous entities in research and clinical practice. This current definition fails to consider the complex pathophysiology of shock and the influence of patient heterogeneity. Recent translational evidence highlights previously under-appreciated heterogeneity regarding the underlying pathways with distinct host-response patterns in circulatory shock syndromes. This heterogeneity may confound the interpretation of trial results as a given treatment may preferentially impact distinct subgroups. Re-analyzing results of major 'neutral' treatment trials from the perspective of biological mechanisms (i.e., host-response signatures) may reveal treatment effects in subgroups of patients that share treatable traits (i.e., specific biological signatures that portend a predictable response to a given treatment). In this review, we discuss the emerging literature suggesting the existence of distinct biomarker-based host-response patterns of circulatory shock syndrome independent of etiology or hemodynamic profile. We further review responses to newly prescribed treatments in the intensive care unit designed to personalize treatments (biomarker-driven or endotype-driven patient selection in support of future clinical trials).

Prevalent diabetes and long-term cardiovascular outcomes in adult sepsis survivors: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis survivors are at elevated risk for cardiovascular disease during long-term follow-up. Whether diabetes influences cardiovascular risk after sepsis survival remains unknown. We sought to describe the association of diabetes with long-term cardiovascular outcomes in adult sepsis survivors. METHODS: Population-based cohort study in the province of Ontario, Canada (2008-2017). Adult survivors of a first sepsis-associated hospitalization, without pre-existing cardiovascular disease, were included. Main exposure was pre-existing diabetes (any type). The primary outcome was the composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, and cardiovascular death. Patients were followed up to 5 years from discharge date until outcome occurrence or end of study period (March 2018). We used propensity score matching (i.e., 1:1 to patients with sepsis but no pre-existing diabetes) to adjust for measured confounding at baseline. Cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models with robust standard errors were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) alongside 95% confidence intervals (CI). A main secondary analysis evaluated the modification of the association between sepsis and cardiovascular disease by pre-existing diabetes. RESULTS: 78,638 patients with pre-existing diabetes who had a sepsis-associated hospitalization were matched to patients hospitalized for sepsis but without diabetes. Mean age of patients was 71 years, and 55% were female. Median duration from diabetes diagnosis was 9.8 years; mean HbA1c was 7.1%. Adult sepsis survivors with pre-existing diabetes experienced a higher hazard of major cardiovascular disease (HR 1.25; 95% CI 1.22-1.29)-including myocardial infarction (HR 1.40; 95% CI 1.34-1.47) and stroke (HR 1.24; 95% CI 1.18-1.29)-during long-term follow-up compared to sepsis survivors without diabetes. Pre-existing diabetes modified the association between sepsis and cardiovascular disease (risk difference: 2.3%; 95% CI 2.0-2.6 and risk difference: 1.8%; 95% CI 1.6-2.0 for the effect of sepsis-compared to no sepsis-among patients with and without diabetes, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Sepsis survivors with pre-existing diabetes experience a higher long-term hazard of major cardiovascular events when compared to sepsis survivors without diabetes. Compared to patients without sepsis, the absolute risk increase of cardiovascular events after sepsis is higher in patients with diabetes (i.e., diabetes intensified the higher cardiovascular risk induced by sepsis).

Fontan Heart: Insight Into the Physiological Role of the Right Heart.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac output (CO) is almost normal in children born without a functional right ventricle (RV), and a Fontan repair, so why is RV dysfunction such a clinical problem? We tested the hypotheses that increased pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) is the dominant factor and volume expansion by any means is of limited benefit. METHODS: We removed the RV from a previously used MATLAB model and altered vascular volume, venous compliance (Cv), PVR, and measures of left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic function. CO and regional vascular pressures were the primary outcome measures. RESULTS: RV removal decreased CO by 25%, and raised mean systemic filling pressure (MSFP). A 10 mL/kg increase in stressed volume only moderately increased CO with or without the RV. Decreasing systemic Cv increased CO but also markedly increased pulmonary venous pressure. With no RV, increasing PVR had the greatest effect on CO. Increasing LV function had little benefit. CONCLUSIONS: Model data indicate that increasing PVR dominates the decrease in CO in Fontan physiology. Increasing stressed volume by any means only moderately increased CO and increasing LV function had little effect. Decreasing systemic Cv unexpectedly markedly increased pulmonary venous pressures even with the RV intact.