Quantitative HBeAg is a strong predictor of HBeAg loss among patients receiving pegylated interferon.

BACKGROUND: HBeAg loss is an important endpoint for antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis B (CHB), however there are no reliable biomarkers to identify patients who will respond to the addition of pegylated interferon to nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) therapy. AIM: To evaluate the use of serum biomarkers to predict HBeAg loss. METHODS: HBeAg positive CHB participants on NAs who switched-to or added-on 48 weeks pegylated interferon alpha2b (clinicaltrial.gov NCT01928511) were evaluated at week 72 for HBeAg loss. The predictive ability of qHBeAg, qHBsAg, HBV RNA and clinical variables for HBeAg loss were investigated. RESULTS: HBeAg loss occurred in 15/55 (27.3%) participants who completed 48 weeks of pegylated interferon. There was a lower baseline qHBeAg (1.18 IU/mL [2.27] versus 10.04 IU/mL [24.87], P = 0.007) among participants who lost HBeAg. Baseline qHBeAg (OR = 0.15, 95% CI 0.03-0.66, P = 0.01) and detectable HBV DNA at baseline (OR = 25.00, 95% CI 1.67-374.70, P = 0.02) were independent predictors of HBeAg loss. In addition, on-treatment qHBeAg was also a strong predictor of HBeAg loss (OR = 0.39, 95% CI 0.18-0.81, P = 0.012). The models combining detectable baseline HBV DNA with baseline (C-statistic 0.82) and on-treatment (C-statistic 0.83) had good accuracy for predicting HBeAg loss. A rise in qHBeAg ≥ 10 IU/ml was a predictor of flare (ALT ≥ 120 U/ml) on univariable analysis but not after adjustment for treatment arm. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline and on-treatment qHBeAg is a useful biomarker that can identify participants on NA therapy who may benefit from adding or switching to pegylated interferon.

Expert consensus on the diagnosis and treatment of end-stage liver disease complicated by infections.

End-stage liver disease (ESLD) is a life-threatening clinical syndrome and when complicated with infection the mortality is markedly increased. In patients with ESLD, bacterial or fungal infection can induce or aggravate the occurrence or progression of liver decompensation. Consequently, infections are among the most common complications of disease deterioration. There is an overwhelming need for standardized protocols for early diagnosis and appropriate management for patients with ESLD complicated by infections. Asia Pacific region has the largest number of ESLD patients, due to hepatitis B and the growing population of alcohol and NAFLD. Concomitant infections not only add to organ failure and high mortality but also to financial and healthcare burdens. This consensus document assembled up-to-date knowledge and experience from colleagues across the Asia-Pacific region, providing data on the principles as well as evidence-based current working protocols and practices for the diagnosis and treatment of patients with ESLD complicated by infections.

Meta-analysis: Prevalence and impact of alcohol abstinence in alcohol-associated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Although alcohol abstinence may be an effective intervention for alcohol-associated cirrhosis, its association with prognosis has not been systematically assessed or quantified. AIMS: To determine the prevalence of alcohol abstinence, factors associated with alcohol abstinence and the impact of abstinence on morbidity and overall survival in people with alcohol-associated cirrhosis. METHODS: We searched Medline and Embase from inception to 15 April 2023 for prospective and retrospective cohort studies describing alcohol abstinence in people with known alcohol-associated cirrhosis. Meta-analysis of proportions for pooled estimates was performed. The method of inverse variance, employing a random-effects model, was used to pool the hazard ratio (HR) comparing outcomes of abstinent against non-abstinent individuals with alcohol-associated cirrhosis. RESULTS: We included 19 studies involving 18,833 people with alcohol-associated cirrhosis. The prevalence of alcohol abstinence was 53.8% (CI: 44.6%-62.7%). Over a mean follow-up duration of 48.6 months, individuals who continued to consume alcohol had significantly lower overall survival compared to those who were abstinent (HR: 0.611, 95% CI: 0.506-0.738). These findings remained consistent in sensitivity/subgroup analysis for the presence of decompensation, study design and studies that assessed abstinence throughout follow-up. Alcohol abstinence was associated with a significantly lower risk of hepatic decompensation (HR: 0.612, 95% CI: 0.473-0.792). CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol abstinence is associated with substantial improvement in overall survival in alcohol-associated cirrhosis. However, only half of the individuals with known alcohol-associated cirrhosis are abstinent.

Identifying the early predictors of non-response to steroids in patients with flare of autoimmune hepatitis causing acute-on-chronic liver failure.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Early identification of non-response to steroids is critical in patients with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) causing acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). We assessed if this non-response can be accurately identified within first few days of treatment. METHODS: Patients with AIH-ACLF without baseline infection/hepatic encephalopathy were identified from APASL ACLF research consortium (AARC) database. Diagnosis of AIH-ACLF was based mainly on histology. Those treated with steroids were assessed for non-response (defined as death or liver transplant at 90 days for present study). Laboratory parameters, AARC, and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores were assessed at baseline and day 3 to identify early non-response. Utility of dynamic SURFASA score [- 6.80 + 1.92*(D0-INR) + 1.94*(∆%3-INR) + 1.64*(∆%3-bilirubin)] was also evaluated. The performance of early predictors was compared with changes in MELD score at 2 weeks. RESULTS: Fifty-five out of one hundred and sixty-five patients (age-38.2 ± 15.0 years, 67.2% females) with AIH-ACLF [median MELD 24 (IQR: 22-27); median AARC score 7 (6-9)] given oral prednisolone 40 (20-40) mg per day were analyzed. The 90 day transplant-free survival in this cohort was 45.7% with worse outcomes in those with incident infections (56% vs 28.0%, p = 0.03). The AUROC of pre-therapy AARC score [0.842 (95% CI 0.754-0.93)], MELD [0.837 (95% CI 0.733-0.94)] score and SURFASA score [0.795 (95% CI 0.678-0.911)] were as accurate as ∆MELD at 2 weeks [0.770 (95% CI 0.687-0.845), p = 0.526] and better than ∆MELD at 3 days [0.541 (95% CI 0.395, 0.687), p < 0.001] to predict non-response. Combination of AARC score > 6, MELD score > 24 with SURFASA score ≥ - 1.2, could identify non-responders at day 3 (concomitant- 75% vs either - 42%, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Baseline AARC score, MELD score, and the dynamic SURFASA score on day 3 can accurately identify early non-response to steroids in AIH-ACLF.

Metabolic dysfunction associated fatty liver disease: The new nomenclature and its impact.

BACKGROUND: In 2020, an international expert panel proposed a new definition of fatty liver: Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD). The MAFLD added the criteria for defining metabolic dysfunctions, which are high-risk factors for liver-related and cardiovascular events. Contrary to the non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) definition, it allows the coexistence of MAFLD and significant alcohol use in the same patient. AIM: To review the existing data that evaluate the clinical profile and long-term outcome difference between the patients identified as MAFLD and NAFLD. METHODS: Databases MEDLINE via PubMed and EMBASE were searched and relevant publications up to June 28, 2022 were assessed. Studies were included if they involved human participants diagnosed with MAFLD. RESULTS: A total of 2324 records were reviewed, of which 1575 duplicate citations were removed. Of the 2324 records screened, 207 articles were excluded, and 542 articles were assessed for their eligibility, for which 511 were excluded. The remaining 31 articles were selected for review. MAFLD diagnostic criteria were able to identify more individuals with fatty liver. Studies have shown that patients included using the MAFLD criteria were associated with higher risks of hepatic fibrosis when compared to NAFLD. All-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease-related, and cancer-related mortality were shown to be higher in MAFLD patients. MAFLD patients also had higher baseline metabolic derangement, and risks of developing obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular events. Of the 3 subtypes, diabetes mellitus has the strongest association with negative outcomes, followed by metabolic dysfunction and elevated body mass index. Within the subtypes of MAFLD, patients with more metabolic conditions at the time of diagnosis had worse hepatic and liver injury compared to those with a single metabolic condition. CONCLUSION: MAFLD is a new definition of fatty liver disease that is gaining increasing acceptance. It is based on empirical clinical practice on positive inclusion of metabolic risk factors and recent evidence suggests that it helps to identify patients with higher risk for liver-related as well as cardiovascular events.

Future anti-HDV treatment strategies, including those aimed at HBV functional cure.

HDV is a defective virus that uses the HBV surface antigen to enter hepatocytes. It is associated with an accelerated course of liver fibrosis progression and an increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma. Negative HDV RNA 24 weeks after the end of therapy has been proposed as an endpoint but late relapses make this endpoint suboptimal, hence HBsAg loss appears to be more appropriate. Current HBV antiviral agents have poor activity against HDV hence the search for improved therapy. Drugs only active against HDV, such as lonafarnib, have shown efficacy in combination with nucleoside analogues and peginterferon, but do not lead to HBsAg loss. HBsAg loss sustained 24 weeks after the end of therapy with negative HBV DNA is termed functional cure. Agents that are being investigated for functional cure include those that inhibit replication such as entry inhibitors, polymerase inhibitors and capsid assembly modulators but seldom lead to functional cure. Agents that reduce HBV antigen load such as RNA interference and inhibitors of HBsAg secretion are promising. Immunomodulators on their own seldom achieve functional cure, hence these agents in combination to assess the optimal combination are being investigated. Consequently, agents leading to functional cure of HBV are ideal for both HBV and HDV.

APASL-ACLF Research Consortium-Artificial Intelligence (AARC-AI) model precisely predicts outcomes in acute-on-chronic liver failure patients.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We hypothesized that artificial intelligence (AI) models are more precise than standard models for predicting outcomes in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). METHODS: We recruited ACLF patients between 2009 and 2020 from APASL-ACLF Research Consortium (AARC). Their clinical data, investigations and organ involvement were serially noted for 90-days and utilized for AI modelling. Data were split randomly into train and validation sets. Multiple AI models, MELD and AARC-Model, were created/optimized on train set. Outcome prediction abilities were evaluated on validation sets through area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and class precision. RESULTS: Among 2481 ACLF patients, 1501 in train set and 980 in validation set, the extreme gradient boost-cross-validated model (XGB-CV) demonstrated the highest AUC in train (0.999), validation (0.907) and overall sets (0.976) for predicting 30-day outcomes. The AUC and accuracy of the XGB-CV model (%Δ) were 7.0% and 6.9% higher than the standard day-7 AARC model (p < .001) and 12.8% and 10.6% higher than the day 7 MELD for 30-day predictions in validation set (p < .001). The XGB model had the highest AUC for 7- and 90-day predictions as well (p < .001). Day-7 creatinine, international normalized ratio (INR), circulatory failure, leucocyte count and day-4 sepsis were top features determining the 30-day outcomes. A simple decision tree incorporating creatinine, INR and circulatory failure was able to classify patients into high (~90%), intermediate (~60%) and low risk (~20%) of mortality. A web-based AARC-AI model was developed and validated twice with optimal performance for 30-day predictions. CONCLUSIONS: The performance of the AARC-AI model exceeds the standard models for outcome predictions in ACLF. An AI-based decision tree can reliably undertake severity-based stratification of patients for timely interventions.

Echocardiographic assessment of cardiovascular function and clinical outcomes in liver transplant recipients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Cardiovascular disease contributes to a high rate of morbidity and mortality after liver transplantation (LT). However, the progression of cardiac function and cardiac remodeling in LT recipients remains poorly understood. This study sought to evaluate the progression of cardiac function and structure in LT recipients and identify independent predictors of prognosis using echocardiography. METHODS: From 2009 to 2019, 178 adult LT recipients at a tertiary academic transplant center were retrospectively studied. Transthoracic echocardiograms 1-year pre- and post-LT were assessed. Primary outcomes were progression of systolic and diastolic function. Secondary outcomes included left ventricular remodeling, all-cause mortality, and heart failure readmission post-LT. Subgroup analyzes were performed for etiology of native liver disease. A multivariable model was constructed to examine independent predictors of outcomes. RESULTS: Systolic function significantly worsened, with reduction in stroke volume (45-37 ml/m2 , p < .001), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (65%-62%, p < .001) and cardiac index (3.00-2.60 L/min/m2 , p < .001). Conversely, there were significant improvements in diastolic indices, including tricuspid regurgitation Vmax (228-215 cm/s, p = .017), left atrial volume index (LAVI) (32-26 ml/m2 , p < .001) and right ventricular systolic pressure (RVSP) (31-28 mmHg, p = .001). Additionally, patients had increased relative wall thickness (RWT) (p < .001) and decreased left ventricular end-diastolic dimension/body surface area (p < .001) post-LT. The independent predictors for all-cause mortality and heart failure were increased pre-LT mitral annular early diastolic velocity (HR 1.11, CI 1.02-1.22, p = .018), LAVI (HR 1.06, CI 1.02-1.11, p = .007) and decreased LVEF (HR .89, CI .82-.97, p = .006). The effect of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis on cardiovascular outcomes post-LT was largely comparable to that of Hepatitis B. CONCLUSION: This study showed reduced systolic and improved diastolic function in LT recipients and highlighted the utility of pre-LT echocardiogram in the prognostication and risk stratification of LT candidates.

Acute variceal bleeding portends poor outcomes in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure: a propensity score matched study from the APASL ACLF Research Consortium (AARC).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Limited data exist regarding outcomes of acute variceal bleeding (AVB) in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), especially in those with hepatic failure. We evaluated the outcomes of AVB in patients with ACLF in a multinational cohort of APASL ACLF Research Consortium (AARC). METHODS: Prospectively maintained data from AARC database on patients with ACLF who developed AVB (ACLF-AVB) was analysed. This data included demographic profile, severity of liver disease, and rebleeding and mortality in 6 weeks. These outcomes were compared with a propensity score matched (PSM) cohort of ACLF matched for severity of liver disease (MELD, AARC score) without AVB (ACLF without AVB). RESULTS: Of the 4434 ACLF patients, the outcomes in ACLF-AVB (n = 72) [mean age-46 ± 10.4 years, 93% males, 66% with alcoholic liver disease, 65% with alcoholic hepatitis, AARC score: 10.1 ± 2.2, MELD score: 34 (IQR: 27-40)] were compared with a PSM cohort selected in a ratio of 1:2 (n = 143) [mean age-44.9 ± 12.5 years, 82.5% males, 48% alcoholic liver disease, 55.7% alcoholic hepatitis, AARC score: 9.4 ± 1.5, MELD score: 32 (IQR: 24-40)] of ACLF-without AVB. Despite PSM, ACLF patients with AVB had a higher baseline HVPG than without AVB (25.00 [IQR: 23.00-28.00] vs. 17.00 [15.00-21.75] mmHg; p = 0.045). The 6-week mortality in ACLF patients with or without AVB was 70.8% and 53.8%, respectively (p = 0.025). The 6-week rebleeding rate was 23% in ACLF-AVB. Presence of ascites [hazard ratio (HR) 2.2 (95% CI 1.03-9.8), p = 0.026], AVB [HR 1.9 (95% CI 1.2-2.5, p = 0.03)], and MELD score [HR 1.7 (95% CI 1.1-2.1), p = 0.001] independently predicted mortality in the overall ACLF cohort. CONCLUSION: Development of AVB confers poor outcomes in patients with ACLF with a high 6-week mortality. Elevated HVPG at baseline represents a potential risk factor for future AVB in ACLF.

Endoscopic Bariatric and Metabolic Therapies and Their Effects on Metabolic Syndrome and Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease - A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background: Endoscopic bariatric and metabolic therapies (EBMTs) are procedures that utilize instruments that require flexible endoscopy or placement of devices for inducing weight loss. We perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate four modalities - intragastric balloon (IGB), endoscopic sleeve gastroplasty (ESG), duodeno-jejunal bypass liner (DJBL), and duodenal mucosa resurfacing (DMR), for their efficacy and safety on weight loss, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, and metabolic syndrome. Methods: Databases MEDLINE via PubMed, and EMBASE are searched and relevant publications up to January 26, 2022 are assessed. Studies are included if they involved human participants diagnosed with obesity and obesity-related comorbid conditions who are treated with any of the 4 EBMTs. IGB and DJBL were chosen as the interventions for the meta-analysis with weight loss (percentage total body weight loss or body mass index) and glycemic control (fasting plasma glucose or HbA1c) as the two main outcomes analyzed. Results: Six hundred and forty-eight records are reviewed, of which 15 studies are found to be duplicates. Of the 633 records screened, 442 studies are excluded. One hundred and ninety-one articles are assessed for eligibility, for which 171 are excluded. A total of 21 publications are included. Twelve studies are on IGB, two studies on ESG, five studies on DJBL, and two studies on DMR. In these studies with appropriate control, IGB, ESG, and DJBL showed promising benefits on weight loss reduction compared to standard medical therapy (SMT), while DMR appeared to have the least weight reduction benefit. However, the impact on glycemic control featured more prominently in DMR as compared to the rest of the modalities. Different EBMTs have different adverse effect profiles, although device-related adverse events are featured more prominently in DJBL. In the IGB group, there was a significant reduction in 6-month %TBWL [weighted mean difference (WMD) 5.45 (3.88, 7.05)] and FPG WMD -4.89 mg/dL (-7.74, -2.04) compared to the SMT group. There was no significant reduction in BMI between the DJBL and SMT group WMD -2.73 (-5.52, 0.07) kg/m2. Conclusion: EBMTs have demonstrated a significant impact on weight loss and metabolic comorbidities, and reasonable safety profiles in the studies reviewed. Some data is available to demonstrate reduction of hepatic steatosis, but there is no high-quality data supporting benefits on hepatic lobular inflammation or fibrosis.

Switching to or Add-on Peginterferon in Patients on Nucleos(t)ide Analogues for Chronic Hepatitis B: The SWAP RCT.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The optimal therapeutic strategy in nucleoside analogue (NA) experienced chronic hepatitis B (CHB) using peginterferon is still unclear; hence we explored a switch to or add-on peginterferon strategy versus continued NA. METHODS: We conducted a randomized controlled trial of CHB patients on NA >12 months with HBV DNA(-) randomized to switch or add-on peginterferon-alpha2b (1.5 µg/kg/weekly) for 48 weeks versus continuing NA (controls) (allocation 2:2:1; Clinicaltrial.gov: NCT01928511) in tertiary Singapore hospitals. The primary composite endpoint at week 72 was hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) loss or quantitative HBsAg (qHBsAg) >1 log IU/mL reduction, and secondary endpoints were HBsAg loss, HBsAg seroconversion, qHBsAg <200 IU/mL, qHBsAg <100 IU/mL, HBV DNA(-), viral relapse, and safety. Analysis was by intention-to-treat (ITT). RESULTS: A total of 253 patients (controls 51, switch 103, add-on 99) were randomized. The primary ITT endpoint was achieved in 3.9% of controls, 33.3% of switch, and 26.7% of add-on (P < .0001, switch/add-on versus controls). HBsAg loss occurred in 0% of controls, 7.8% of switch, and 10.1% of add-on (ITT, P < .001, switch/add-on versus controls). HBeAg(+) patients on peginterferon had higher HBeAg loss than controls but poor HBsAg responses, whereas HBeAg(-) patients on peginterferon achieved better HBsAg responses than controls. Reduction in qHBsAg in HBeAg(+) was 0.14 log IU/mL versus 0.51 log IU/mL in HBeAg(-) (P < .0001) in peginterferon-treated patients. Clinical relapse was higher in switch (13.6% overall, 27% in HBeAg(+)) versus 1% add-on and 0% controls. Adverse events were typically interferon-related symptoms, with one death (myocardial infarction unrelated to therapy). CONCLUSIONS: ITT analysis showed that either peginterferon strategies were superior to NA for the primary endpoint and HBsAg loss, but add-on peginterferon is preferred to switch due to improved safety and similar efficacy. ClincialTrials.gov number: NCT01928511.

Broad-Spectrum Antiviral Peptides and Polymers.

As the human cost of the pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is still being witnessed worldwide, the development of broad-spectrum antiviral agents against emerging and re-emerging viruses is seen as a necessity to hamper the spread of infections. Various targets during the viral life-cycle can be considered to inhibit viral infection, from viral attachment to viral fusion or replication. Macromolecules represent a particularly attractive class of therapeutics due to their multivalency and versatility. Although several antiviral macromolecules hold great promise in clinical applications, the emergence of resistance after prolonged exposure urges the need for improved solutions. In the present article, the recent advancement in the discovery of antiviral peptides and polymers with diverse structural features and antiviral mechanisms is reviewed. Future perspectives, such as, the development of virucidal peptides/polymers and their coatings against SARS-CoV-2 infection, standardization of antiviral testing protocols, and use of artificial intelligence or machine learning as a tool to accelerate the discovery of antiviral macromolecules, are discussed.

'First week' is the crucial period for deciding living donor liver transplantation in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a rapidly progressive illness with high short-term mortality. Timely liver transplant (LT) may improve survival. We evaluated various indices for assessment of the severity of liver failure and their application for eligibility and timing of living donor LT (LDLT). METHODS: Altogether 1021 patients were analyzed for the severity and organ failure at admission to determine transplant eligibility and 28 day survival with or without transplant. RESULTS: The ACLF cohort [mean age 44 ± 12.2 years, males 81%) was of sick patients; 55% willing for LT at admission, though 63% of them were ineligible due to sepsis or organ failure. On day 4, recovery in sepsis and/or organ failure led to an improvement in transplant eligibility from 37% at baseline to 63.7%. Delay in LT up to 7 days led to a higher incidence of multiorgan failure (p < 0.01) contributing to 23% of the first week and 55% of all-cause 28-day mortality. In a matched cohort analysis, the actuarial survival with LT (n = 41) and conditional survival in the absence of transplant (n = 191) were comparable, when the condition, i.e., transplant was adjusted. The comparison curve showed differentiation in survival beyond 7 days (p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: ACLF is a rapidly progressive disease and risk stratification within the first week of hospitalization is needed. 'Emergent LT' should be defined in the first week in the ACLF patients; the transplant window for improving survival in a live donor setting.

A Multiethnic Asian Perspective of Presumed Consent for Organ Donation: A Population-Based Perception Study.

Background: Organ shortage is still a world-wide problem, resulting in long waiting lists for kidney, liver, and heart transplant candidates across many transplant centers globally. This has resulted in the move toward presumed consent to increase deceased organ donation rates. However, there remains a paucity of literature on public attitude and barriers regarding the opt-out system, with existing studies limited to Western nations. Therefore, this study aimed to understand public sentiment and different barriers toward organ donation from the perspective of Singapore, a highly diverse and multiethnic Asian society. Methods: A cross-sectional community semi-structured interview was conducted in a public housing estate in Singapore. Pilot test was undertaken before participants were interviewed face-to-face by trained personnel. All statistical evaluations were conducted using Stata. The χ2-test compared subgroups based on patient characteristics while multivariable logistic regression identified predictors of willingness to donate/ assent. Effect estimates were quantified using odds ratio (OR). Findings: Out of 799 individuals, 85% were agreeable to organ donation after death and 81% were willing to assent to donations of family members' organs, which declined by 16% (p < 0.001) after a clinical scenario was presented. Demographic factors including ethnicity, education, marital, and employment status affected willingness to donate and assent. Knowledge correlated significantly with willingness to donate and assent. In particular, knowledge regarding brain death irreversibility had the strongest correlation (AOR 2.15; 95% CI 1.60-2.89). Conclusions: Organ donation rates remain low albeit presumed consent legislation, due to patient-level barriers, including but not limited to knowledge gaps, cultural values, religious backgrounds, and emotional impact at relatives' death. To effectively boost donor rates, it is crucial for policy makers to invest in public education and improve transplant provisions and family protocols.

Impact of COVID-19 on Liver Transplantation in Hong Kong and Singapore: A Modelling Study.

BACKGROUND: Liver transplantation (LT) activities during the COVID-19 pandemic have been curtailed in many countries. The impact of various policies restricting LT on outcomes of potential LT candidates is unclear. METHODS: We studied all patients on the nationwide LT waitlists in Hong Kong and Singapore between January 2016 and May 2020. We used continuous time Markov chains to model the effects of different scenarios and varying durations of disruption on LT candidates. FINDINGS: With complete cessation of LT, the projected 1-year overall survival (OS) decreased by 3•6%, 10•51% and 19•21% for a 1-, 3- and 6-month disruption respectively versus no limitation to LT, while 2-year OS decreased by 4•1%, 12•55%, and 23•43% respectively. When only urgent (acute-on-chronic liver failure [ACLF] or acute liver failure) LT was allowed, the projected 1-year OS decreased by a similar proportion: 3•1%, 8•41% and 15•20% respectively. When deceased donor LT (DDLT) and urgent living donor LT (LDLT) were allowed, 1-year projected OS decreased by 1•2%, 5•1% and 8•85% for a 1-, 3- and 6-month disruption respectively. OS was similar when only DDLT was allowed. Complete cessation of LT activities for 3-months resulted in an increased projected incidence of ACLF and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) dropout at 1-year by 49•1% and 107•96% respectively. When only urgent LT was allowed, HCC dropout and ACLF incidence were comparable to the rates seen in the scenario of complete LT cessation. INTERPRETATION: A short and wide-ranging disruption to LT results in better outcomes compared with a longer duration of partial restrictions. FUNDING: None to disclose.

An Epidemiological Meta-Analysis on the Worldwide Prevalence, Resistance, and Outcomes of Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis in Cirrhosis.

Background and Aims: Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a common and potentially fatal complication of liver cirrhosis. This study aims to analyze the prevalence of SBP among liver cirrhotic patients according to geographical location and income level, and risk factors and outcomes of SBP. Methods: A systematic search for articles describing prevalence, risk factors and outcomes of SBP was conducted. A single-arm meta-analysis was performed using generalized linear mix model (GLMM) with Clopper-Pearson intervals. Results: Ninety-Nine articles, comprising a total of 5,861,142 individuals with cirrhosis were included. Pooled prevalence of SBP was found to be 17.12% globally (CI: 13.63-21.30%), highest in Africa (68.20%; CI: 12.17-97.08%), and lowest in North America (10.81%; CI: 5.32-20.73%). Prevalence of community-acquired SBP was 6.05% (CI: 4.32-8.40%), and 11.11% (CI: 5.84-20.11%,) for healthcare-associated SBP. Antibiotic-resistant microorganisms were found in 11.77% (CI: 7.63-17.73%) of SBP patients. Of which, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus was most common (6.23%; CI: 3.83-9.97%), followed by extended-spectrum beta-lactamase producing organisms (6.19%; CI: 3.32-11.26%), and lastly vancomycin-resistant enterococci (1.91%; CI: 0.41-8.46%). Subgroup analysis comparing prevalence, antibiotic resistance, and outcomes between income groups was conducted to explore a link between socioeconomic status and SBP, which revealed decreased risk of SBP and negative outcomes in high-income countries. Conclusion: SBP remains a frequent complication of liver cirrhosis worldwide. The drawn link between income level and SBP in liver cirrhosis may enable further insight on actions necessary to tackle the disease on a global scale.

Comparative accuracy of prognostic models for short-term mortality in acute-on-chronic liver failure patients: CAP-ACLF.

BACKGROUND: Multiple predictive models of mortality exist for acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients that often create confusion during decision-making. We studied the natural history and evaluated the performance of prognostic models in ACLF patients. METHODS: Prospectively collected data of ACLF patients from APASL-ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) was analyzed for 30-day outcomes. The models evaluated at days 0, 4, and 7 of presentation for 30-day mortality were: AARC (model and score), CLIF-C (ACLF score, and OF score), NACSELD-ACLF (model and binary), SOFA, APACHE-II, MELD, MELD-Lactate, and CTP. Evaluation parameters were discrimination (c-indices), calibration [accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and positive/negative predictive values (PPV/NPV)], Akaike/Bayesian Information Criteria (AIC/BIC), Nagelkerke-R2, relative prediction errors, and odds ratios. RESULTS: Thirty-day survival of the cohort (n = 2864) was 64.9% and was lowest for final-AARC-grade-III (32.8%) ACLF. Performance parameters of all models were best at day 7 than at day 4 or day 0 (p < 0.05 for C-indices of all models except NACSELD-ACLF). On comparison, day-7 AARC model had the numerically highest c-index 0.872, best accuracy 84.0%, PPV 87.8%, R2 0.609 and lower prediction errors by 10-50%. Day-7 NACSELD-ACLF-binary was the simple model (minimum AIC/BIC 12/17) with the highest odds (8.859) and sensitivity (100%) but with a lower PPV (70%) for mortality. Patients with day-7 AARC score > 12 had the lowest 30-day survival (5.7%). CONCLUSIONS: APASL-ACLF is often a progressive disease, and models assessed up to day 7 of presentation reliably predict 30-day mortality. Day-7 AARC model is a statistically robust tool for classifying risk of death and accurately predicting 30-day outcomes with relatively lower prediction errors. Day-7 AARC score > 12 may be used as a futility criterion in APASL-ACLF patients.

Liver-Derived Cell Transfection Model Efficacy for HBV Genotype B Replication/Transcription Is Determined by Complex Host Transcription Factor Network.

BACKGROUND: Interaction between host transcription factors (TFs) and the viral genome is fundamental for hepatitis B virus (HBV) gene expression regulation. Additionally, the distinct interaction of the TFs' network with the HBV genome determines the regulatory effect outcome. Hence, different HBV genotypes and their variants may display different viral replication/transcription regulation. Due to the lack of an efficient infection model suitable for all HBV genotypes, the hepatoma cell transfection model is primarily used in studies involving non-D HBV genotypes and variants. METHODS: We explored the transcriptome profile of host TFs with a regulatory effect on HBV in eight liver-derived cell lines in comparison with primary human hepatocytes (PHH). We further analyzed the suitability of these models in supporting HBV genotype B replication/transcription. RESULTS: Among studied models, HC-04, as a result of the close similarity of TFs transcriptome profile to PHH and the interaction of specific TFs including HNF4α and PPARα, showed the highest efficiency in regard to viral replication and antigen production. The absence of TFs expression in L02 transfection model resulted in its inefficiency in HBV replication/transcription. CONCLUSION: These observations help to better design studies on regulatory mechanisms involving non-D HBV genotypes and variants' gene expression and the development of more efficient therapeutical approaches.