Value of initial chest radiographs for predicting clinical outcomes in patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome.

PURPOSE: To determine whether the initial chest radiograph is helpful in predicting the clinical outcome of patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). METHODS: Of 343 patients who met the World Health Organization's case definition of probable SARS and who had been admitted to a regional hospital in Hong Kong, 201 patients had laboratory evidence of SARS coronavirus infection. The initial frontal chest radiographs of these 201 patients were assessed in a blinded fashion by 3 radiologists; individual findings were accepted if at least 2 of the radiologists concurred. Independent predictors of an adverse outcome, defined as the need for assisted ventilation, death, or both, were identified by multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Bilateral disease and involvement of more than two zones on the initial chest radiograph were associated with a higher risk of liver impairment and poor clinical outcome. Forty-two patients (21%) developed an adverse outcome. Multivariate analysis showed that lung involvement of more than two zones (odds ratio [OR] = 7.0; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.7 to 17.9), older age (OR for each decade of life = 1.5; 95% CI: 1.1 to 2.0), and shortness of breath on admission (OR = 2.8; 95% CI: 1.1 to 7.4) were independent predictors of an adverse outcome. CONCLUSION: Frontal chest radiographs on presentation may have prognostic value in patients with SARS.

Outcomes and prognostic factors in 267 patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) has become a global public health emergency. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with SARS in Hong Kong and to identify predictors of mortality. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Quarantine hospital for patients with SARS in Hong Kong. PATIENTS: 267 consecutive patients hospitalized from 26 February to 31 March 2003 for probable or confirmed SARS. MEASUREMENTS: Clinical, laboratory, and radiographic measures; 3-month mortality rate. RESULTS: According to our case definition, there were 227 cases of confirmed SARS and 40 cases of probable SARS. Common presenting symptoms were fever (99% of patients), chills (74%), malaise (63%), and myalgia (50%). Laboratory findings included lymphopenia (73%), thrombocytopenia (50%), hyponatremia (60%), and elevated levels of lactate dehydrogenase (47%) and C-reactive protein (75%). During hospitalization, incidence of diarrhea (53%), anemia (53%), and acute renal failure (6%) increased. Sixty-nine patients (26%) required intensive care because of respiratory failure. The 3-month mortality rate was 12% (95% CI, 8% to 16%). Factors contributing to mortality were respiratory failure, acute renal failure, and nosocomial sepsis. On multivariate Cox regression, age older than 60 years (relative risk, 5.10 [CI, 2.30 to 11.31]; P < 0.001) and lactate dehydrogenase level greater than 3.8 micro kat/L at presentation (relative risk, 2.20 [CI, 1.03 to 4.71]; P = 0.04) were independent predictors of mortality. CONCLUSION: Because of the longer follow-up period in our cohort, the mortality rate in these patients is higher than rates reported in previous studies. Advanced age and high lactate dehydrogenase level at presentation predict mortality. *For members of the Princess Margaret Hospital SARS Study Group, see the Appendix.

Coronavirus-positive nasopharyngeal aspirate as predictor for severe acute respiratory syndrome mortality.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) has caused a major epidemic worldwide. A novel coronavirus is deemed to be the causative agent. Early diagnosis can be made with reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) of nasopharyngeal aspirate samples. We compared symptoms of 156 SARS-positive and 62 SARS-negative patients in Hong Kong; SARS was confirmed by RT-PCR. The RT-PCR-positive patients had significantly more shortness of breath, a lower lymphocyte count, and a lower lactate dehydrogenase level; they were also more likely to have bilateral and multifocal chest radiograph involvement, to be admitted to intensive care, to need mechanical ventilation, and to have higher mortality rates. By multivariate analysis, positive RT-PCR on nasopharyngeal aspirate samples was an independent predictor of death within 30 days.