In-silico functional analyses identify TMPRSS15-mediated intestinal absorption of lithium as a modulator of lithium response in bipolar disorder.

BACKGROUND: The therapeutic response to lithium in patients with bipolar disorder is highly variable and has a polygenic basis. Genome-wide association studies investigating lithium response have identified several relevant loci, though the precise mechanisms driving these associations are poorly understood. We aimed to prioritise the most likely effector gene and determine the mechanisms underlying an intergenic lithium response locus on chromosome 21 identified by the International Consortium of Lithium Genetics (ConLi+Gen). METHODS: We conducted in-silico functional analyses by integrating and synthesising information from several publicly available functional genetic datasets and databases including the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) project and HaploReg. RESULTS: The findings from this study highlighted TMPRSS15 as the most likely effector gene at the ConLi+Gen lithium response locus. TMPRSS15 encodes enterokinase, a gastrointestinal enzyme responsible for converting trypsinogen into trypsin and thus aiding digestion. Convergent findings from gene-based lookups in human and mouse databases as well as co-expression network analyses of small intestinal RNA-seq data (GTEx) implicated TMPRSS15 in the regulation of intestinal nutrient absorption, including ions like sodium and potassium, which may extend to lithium. LIMITATIONS: Although the findings from this study indicated that TMPRSS15 was the most likely effector gene at the ConLi+Gen lithium response locus, the evidence was circumstantial. Thus, the conclusions from this study need to be validated in appropriately designed wet-lab studies. CONCLUSIONS: The findings from this study are consistent with a model whereby TMPRSS15 impacts the efficacy of lithium treatment in patients with bipolar disorder by modulating intestinal lithium absorption.

Modification of coronary artery disease clinical risk factors by coronary artery disease polygenic risk score.

BACKGROUND: The extent to which the relationships between clinical risk factors and coronary artery disease (CAD) are altered by CAD polygenic risk score (PRS) is not well understood. Here, we determine whether the interactions between clinical risk factors and CAD PRS further explain risk for incident CAD. METHODS: Participants were of European ancestry from the UK Biobank without prevalent CAD. An externally trained genome-wide CAD PRS was generated and then applied. Clinical risk factors were ascertained at baseline. Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to examine the incident CAD effects of CAD PRS, risk factors, and their interactions. Next, the PRS and risk factors were stratified to investigate the attributable risk of clinical risk factors. FINDINGS: A total of 357,144 individuals of European ancestry without prevalent CAD were included. During a median of 11.1 years of follow-up (interquartile range 10.4-14.1 years), CAD PRS was associated with 1.35-fold (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.332-1.368) risk per SD for incident CAD. The prognostic relevance of the following risk factors was relatively diminished for those with high CAD PRS on a continuous scale: type 2 diabetes (hazard ratio [HR]interaction 0.91, 95% CIinteraction 0.88-0.94), increased body mass index (HRinteraction 0.97, 95% CIinteraction 0.96-0.98), and increased C-reactive protein (HRinteraction 0.98, 95% CIinteraction 0.96-0.99). However, a high CAD PRS yielded joint risk increases with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HRinteraction 1.05, 95% CIinteraction 1.04-1.06) and total cholesterol (HRinteraction 1.05, 95% CIinteraction 1.03-1.06). CONCLUSION: The CAD PRS is associated with incident CAD, and its application improves the prognostic relevance of several clinical risk factors. FUNDING: P.N. (R01HL127564, R01HL151152, and U01HG011719) is supported by the National Institutes of Health.

Integrative polygenic risk score improves the prediction accuracy of complex traits and diseases.

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are an emerging tool to predict the clinical phenotypes and outcomes of individuals. We propose PRSmix, a framework that leverages the PRS corpus of a target trait to improve prediction accuracy, and PRSmix+, which incorporates genetically correlated traits to better capture the human genetic architecture for 47 and 32 diseases/traits in European and South Asian ancestries, respectively. PRSmix demonstrated a mean prediction accuracy improvement of 1.20-fold (95% confidence interval [CI], [1.10; 1.3]; p = 9.17 × 10-5) and 1.19-fold (95% CI, [1.11; 1.27]; p = 1.92 × 10-6), and PRSmix+ improved the prediction accuracy by 1.72-fold (95% CI, [1.40; 2.04]; p = 7.58 × 10-6) and 1.42-fold (95% CI, [1.25; 1.59]; p = 8.01 × 10-7) in European and South Asian ancestries, respectively. Compared to the previously cross-trait-combination methods with scores from pre-defined correlated traits, we demonstrated that our method improved prediction accuracy for coronary artery disease up to 3.27-fold (95% CI, [2.1; 4.44]; p value after false discovery rate (FDR) correction = 2.6 × 10-4). Our method provides a comprehensive framework to benchmark and leverage the combined power of PRS for maximal performance in a desired target population.

Cross-ancestry genetic architecture and prediction for cholesterol traits.

While cholesterol is essential, a high level of cholesterol is associated with the risk of cardiovascular diseases. Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have proven successful in identifying genetic variants that are linked to cholesterol levels, predominantly in white European populations. However, the extent to which genetic effects on cholesterol vary across different ancestries remains largely unexplored. Here, we estimate cross-ancestry genetic correlation to address questions on how genetic effects are shared across ancestries. We find significant genetic heterogeneity between ancestries for cholesterol traits. Furthermore, we demonstrate that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with concordant effects across ancestries for cholesterol are more frequently found in regulatory regions compared to other genomic regions. Indeed, the positive genetic covariance between ancestries is mostly driven by the effects of the concordant SNPs, whereas the genetic heterogeneity is attributed to the discordant SNPs. We also show that the predictive ability of the concordant SNPs is significantly higher than the discordant SNPs in the cross-ancestry polygenic prediction. The list of concordant SNPs for cholesterol is available in GWAS Catalog. These findings have relevance for the understanding of shared genetic architecture across ancestries, contributing to the development of clinical strategies for polygenic prediction of cholesterol in cross-ancestral settings.

Phenome-wide association study of ovarian cancer identifies common comorbidities and reveals shared genetics with complex diseases and biomarkers.

BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer (OC) is commonly diagnosed among older women who have comorbidities. This hypothesis-free phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) aimed to identify comorbidities associated with OC, as well as traits that share a genetic architecture with OC. METHODS: We used data from 181,203 white British female UK Biobank participants and analysed OC and OC subtype-specific genetic risk scores (OC-GRS) for an association with 889 diseases and 43 other traits. We conducted PheWAS and colocalization analyses for individual variants to identify evidence for shared genetic architecture. RESULTS: The OC-GRS was associated with 10 diseases, and the clear cell OC-GRS was associated with five diseases at the FDR threshold (p = 5.6 × 10-4 ). Mendelian randomizaiton analysis (MR) provided robust evidence for the association of OC with higher risk of "secondary malignant neoplasm of digestive systems" (OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.33, 2.02), "ascites" (1.48, 95% CI 1.17, 1.86), "chronic airway obstruction" (1.17, 95% CI 1.07, 1.29), and "abnormal findings on examination of the lung" (1.51, 95% CI 1.22, 1.87). Analyses of lung spirometry measures provided further support for compromised respiratory function. PheWAS on individual OC variants identified five genetic variants associated with other diseases, and seven variants associated with biomarkers (all, p ≤ 4.5 × 10-8 ). Colocalization analysis identified rs4449583 (from TERT locus) as the shared causal variant for OC and seborrheic keratosis. CONCLUSIONS: OC is associated with digestive and respiratory comorbidities. Several variants affecting OC risk were associated with other diseases and biomarkers, with this study identifying a novel genetic locus shared between OC and skin conditions.

A Metabolome-Wide Mendelian Randomization Study Identifies Dysregulated Arachidonic Acid Synthesis as a Potential Causal Risk Factor for Bipolar Disorder.

BACKGROUND: Bipolar disorder (BPD) is a debilitating mood disorder with an unclear etiology. A better understanding of the underlying pathophysiological mechanisms will help to identify novel targets for improved treatment options and prevention strategies. In this metabolome-wide Mendelian randomization study, we screened for metabolites that may have a causal role in BPD. METHODS: We tested a total of 913 circulating metabolite exposures assessed in 14,296 Europeans using a mass spectrometry-based platform. For the BPD outcome, we used summary data from the largest and most recent genome-wide association study reported to date, including 41,917 BPD cases. RESULTS: We identified 33 metabolites associated with BPD (padjusted < 5.48 × 10-5). Most of them were lipids, including arachidonic acid (ß = -0.154, SE = 0.023, p = 3.30 × 10-11), a polyunsaturated omega-6 fatty acid, along with several complex lipids containing either an arachidonic or a linoleic fatty acid side chain. These associations did not extend to other closely related psychiatric disorders like schizophrenia or depression, although they may be involved in the regulation of lithium response. These lipid associations were driven by genetic variants within the FADS1/2/3 gene cluster, which is a robust BPD risk locus encoding a family of fatty acid desaturase enzymes that are responsible for catalyzing the conversion of linoleic acid into arachidonic acid. Statistical colocalization analyses indicated that 27 of the 33 metabolites shared the same genetic etiology with BPD at the FADS1/2/3 cluster, demonstrating that our findings are not confounded by linkage disequilibrium. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our findings support the notion that arachidonic acid and other polyunsaturated fatty acids may represent potential targets for BPD.

Mitigating type 1 error inflation and power loss in GxE PRS: Genotype-environment interaction in polygenic risk score models.

The use of polygenic risk score (PRS) models has transformed the field of genetics by enabling the prediction of complex traits and diseases based on an individual's genetic profile. However, the impact of genotype-environment interaction (GxE) on the performance and applicability of PRS models remains a crucial aspect to be explored. Currently, existing genotype-environment interaction polygenic risk score (GxE PRS) models are often inappropriately used, which can result in inflated type 1 error rates and compromised results. In this study, we propose novel GxE PRS models that jointly incorporate additive and interaction genetic effects although also including an additional quadratic term for nongenetic covariates, enhancing their robustness against model misspecification. Through extensive simulations, we demonstrate that our proposed models outperform existing models in terms of controlling type 1 error rates and enhancing statistical power. Furthermore, we apply the proposed models to real data, and report significant GxE effects. Specifically, we highlight the impact of our models on both quantitative and binary traits. For quantitative traits, we uncover the GxE modulation of genetic effects on body mass index by alcohol intake frequency. In the case of binary traits, we identify the GxE modulation of genetic effects on hypertension by waist-to-hip ratio. These findings underscore the importance of employing a robust model that effectively controls type 1 error rates, thus preventing the occurrence of spurious GxE signals. To facilitate the implementation of our approach, we have developed an innovative R software package called GxEprs, specifically designed to detect and estimate GxE effects. Overall, our study highlights the importance of accurate GxE modeling and its implications for genetic risk prediction, although providing a practical tool to support further research in this area.

Unraveling phenotypic variance in metabolic syndrome through multi-omics.

Complex multi-omics effects drive the clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors, underscoring the imperative to comprehend how individual and combined omics shape phenotypic variation. Our study partitions phenotypic variance in metabolic syndrome (MetS), blood glucose (GLU), triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and blood pressure through genome, transcriptome, metabolome, and exposome (i.e., lifestyle exposome) analyses. Our analysis included a cohort of 62,822 unrelated individuals with white British ancestry, sourced from the UK biobank. We employed linear mixed models to partition phenotypic variance using the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) method, implemented in MTG2 (v2.22). We initiated the analysis by individually modeling omics, followed by subsequent integration of pairwise omics in a joint model that also accounted for the covariance and interaction between omics layers. Finally, we estimated the correlations of various omics effects between the phenotypes using bivariate REML. Significant proportions of the MetS variance were attributed to distinct data sources: genome (9.47%), transcriptome (4.24%), metabolome (14.34%), and exposome (3.77%). The phenotypic variances explained by the genome, transcriptome, metabolome, and exposome ranged from 3.28% for GLU to 25.35% for HDL-C, 0% for GLU to 19.34% for HDL-C, 4.29% for systolic blood pressure (SBP) to 35.75% for TG, and 0.89% for GLU to 10.17% for HDL-C, respectively. Significant correlations were found between genomic and transcriptomic effects for TG and HDL-C. Furthermore, significant interaction effects between omics data were detected for both MetS and its components. Interestingly, significant correlation of omics effect between the phenotypes was found. This study underscores omics' roles, interaction effects, and random-effects covariance in unveiling phenotypic variation in multi-omics domains.

Phenotypic variance partitioning by transcriptomic gene expression levels and environmental variables for anthropometric traits using GTEx data.

Phenotypic variation in human is the results of genetic variation and environmental influences. Understanding the contribution of genetic and environmental components to phenotypic variation is of great interest. The variance explained by genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) typically represents a small proportion of the phenotypic variance for complex traits, which may be because the genome is only a part of the whole biological process to shape the phenotypes. In this study, we propose to partition the phenotypic variance of three anthropometric traits, using gene expression levels and environmental variables from GTEx data. We use the gene expression of four tissues that are deemed relevant for the anthropometric traits (two adipose tissues, skeletal muscle tissue and blood tissue). Additionally, we estimate the transcriptome-environment correlation that partly underlies the phenotypes of the anthropometric traits. We found that genetic factors play a significant role in determining body mass index (BMI), with the proportion of phenotypic variance explained by gene expression levels of visceral adipose tissue being 0.68 (SE = 0.06). However, we also observed that environmental factors such as age, sex, ancestry, smoking status, and drinking alcohol status have a small but significant impact (0.005, SE = 0.001). Interestingly, we found a significant negative correlation between the transcriptomic and environmental effects on BMI (transcriptome-environment correlation = -0.54, SE = 0.14), suggesting an antagonistic relationship. This implies that individuals with lower genetic profiles may be more susceptible to the effects of environmental factors on BMI, while those with higher genetic profiles may be less susceptible. We also show that the estimated transcriptomic variance varies across tissues, e.g., the gene expression levels of whole blood tissue and environmental variables explain a lower proportion of BMI phenotypic variance (0.16, SE = 0.05 and 0.04, SE = 0.004 respectively). We observed a significant positive correlation between transcriptomic and environmental effects (1.21, SE = 0.23) for this tissue. In conclusion, phenotypic variance partitioning can be done using gene expression and environmental data even with a small sample size (n = 838 from GTEx data), which can provide insights into how the transcriptomic and environmental effects contribute to the phenotypes of the anthropometric traits.

Host genetic determinants of COVID-19 susceptibility and severity: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with susceptibility and severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, identified SNPs are inconsistent across studies, and there is no compelling consensus that COVID-19 status is determined by genetic factors. Here, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the effect of genetic factors on COVID-19. A random-effect meta-analysis was performed to estimate pooled odds ratios (ORs) of SNP effects, and SNP-based heritability (SNP-h2 ) of COVID-19. The analyses were performed using meta-R package, and Stata version 17. The meta-analysis included a total of 96,817 COVID-19 cases and 6,414,916 negative controls. The meta-analysis showed that a cluster of highly correlated 9 SNPs (R2  > 0.9) at 3p21.31 gene locus covering LZTFL1 and SLC6A20 genes was significantly associated with COVID-19 severity, with a pooled OR of 1.8 [1.5-2.0]. Meanwhile, another 3 SNPs (rs2531743-G, rs2271616-T, and rs73062389-A) within the locus was associated with COVID-19 susceptibility, with pooled estimates of 0.95 [0.93-0.96], 1.23 [1.19-1.27] and 1.15 [1.13-1.17], respectively. Interestingly, SNPs associated with susceptibility and SNPs associated with severity in this locus are in linkage equilibrium (R2  < 0.026). The SNP-h2 on the liability scale for severity and susceptibility was estimated at 7.6% (Se = 3.2%) and 4.6% (Se = 1.5%), respectively. Genetic factors contribute to COVID-19 susceptibility and severity. In the 3p21.31 locus, SNPs that are associated with susceptibility are not in linkage disequilibrium (LD) with SNPs that are associated with severity, indicating within-locus heterogeneity.

An effective hyper-parameter can increase the prediction accuracy in a single-step genetic evaluation.

The H-matrix best linear unbiased prediction (HBLUP) method has been widely used in livestock breeding programs. It can integrate all information, including pedigree, genotypes, and phenotypes on both genotyped and non-genotyped individuals into one single evaluation that can provide reliable predictions of breeding values. The existing HBLUP method requires hyper-parameters that should be adequately optimised as otherwise the genomic prediction accuracy may decrease. In this study, we assess the performance of HBLUP using various hyper-parameters such as blending, tuning, and scale factor in simulated and real data on Hanwoo cattle. In both simulated and cattle data, we show that blending is not necessary, indicating that the prediction accuracy decreases when using a blending hyper-parameter <1. The tuning process (adjusting genomic relationships accounting for base allele frequencies) improves prediction accuracy in the simulated data, confirming previous studies, although the improvement is not statistically significant in the Hanwoo cattle data. We also demonstrate that a scale factor, α, which determines the relationship between allele frequency and per-allele effect size, can improve the HBLUP accuracy in both simulated and real data. Our findings suggest that an optimal scale factor should be considered to increase prediction accuracy, in addition to blending and tuning processes, when using HBLUP.

Integrative polygenic risk score improves the prediction accuracy of complex traits and diseases.

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) are an emerging tool to predict the clinical phenotypes and outcomes of individuals. Validation and transferability of existing PRS across independent datasets and diverse ancestries are limited, which hinders the practical utility and exacerbates health disparities. We propose PRSmix, a framework that evaluates and leverages the PRS corpus of a target trait to improve prediction accuracy, and PRSmix+, which incorporates genetically correlated traits to better capture the human genetic architecture. We applied PRSmix to 47 and 32 diseases/traits in European and South Asian ancestries, respectively. PRSmix demonstrated a mean prediction accuracy improvement of 1.20-fold (95% CI: [1.10; 1.3]; P-value = 9.17 × 10-5) and 1.19-fold (95% CI: [1.11; 1.27]; P-value = 1.92 × 10-6), and PRSmix+ improved the prediction accuracy by 1.72-fold (95% CI: [1.40; 2.04]; P-value = 7.58 × 10-6) and 1.42-fold (95% CI: [1.25; 1.59]; P-value = 8.01 × 10-7) in European and South Asian ancestries, respectively. Compared to the previously established cross-trait-combination method with scores from pre-defined correlated traits, we demonstrated that our method can improve prediction accuracy for coronary artery disease up to 3.27-fold (95% CI: [2.1; 4.44]; P-value after FDR correction = 2.6 × 10-4). Our method provides a comprehensive framework to benchmark and leverage the combined power of PRS for maximal performance in a desired target population.

A method for an unbiased estimate of cross-ancestry genetic correlation using individual-level data.

Cross-ancestry genetic correlation is an important parameter to understand the genetic relationship between two ancestry groups. However, existing methods cannot properly account for ancestry-specific genetic architecture, which is diverse across ancestries, producing biased estimates of cross-ancestry genetic correlation. Here, we present a method to construct a genomic relationship matrix (GRM) that can correctly account for the relationship between ancestry-specific allele frequencies and ancestry-specific allelic effects. Through comprehensive simulations, we show that the proposed method outperforms existing methods in the estimations of SNP-based heritability and cross-ancestry genetic correlation. The proposed method is further applied to anthropometric and other complex traits from the UK Biobank data across ancestry groups. For obesity, the estimated genetic correlation between African and European ancestry cohorts is significantly different from unity, suggesting that obesity is genetically heterogenous between these two ancestries.

Significance tests for R2 of out-of-sample prediction using polygenic scores.

The coefficient of determination (R2) is a well-established measure to indicate the predictive ability of polygenic scores (PGSs). However, the sampling variance of R2 is rarely considered so that 95% confidence intervals (CI) are not usually reported. Moreover, when comparisons are made between PGSs based on different discovery samples, the sampling covariance of R2 is required to test the difference between them. Here, we show how to estimate the variance and covariance of R2 values to assess the 95% CI and p value of the R2 difference. We apply this approach to real data calculating PGSs in 28,880 European participants derived from UK Biobank (UKBB) and Biobank Japan (BBJ) GWAS summary statistics for cholesterol and BMI. We quantify the significantly higher predictive ability of UKBB PGSs compared to BBJ PGSs (p value 7.6e-31 for cholesterol and 1.4e-50 for BMI). A joint model of UKBB and BBJ PGSs significantly improves the predictive ability, compared to a model of UKBB PGS only (p value 3.5e-05 for cholesterol and 1.3e-28 for BMI). We also show that the predictive ability of regulatory SNPs is significantly enriched over non-regulatory SNPs for cholesterol (p value 8.9e-26 for UKBB and 3.8e-17 for BBJ). We suggest that the proposed approach (available in R package r2redux) should be used to test the statistical significance of difference between pairs of PGSs, which may help to draw a correct conclusion about the comparative predictive ability of PGSs.

Integrative analysis of genomic and exposomic influences on youth mental health.

BACKGROUND: Understanding complex influences on mental health problems in young people is needed to inform early prevention strategies. Both genetic and environmental factors are known to influence youth mental health, but a more comprehensive picture of their interplay, including wide-ranging environmental exposures - that is, the exposome - is needed. We perform an integrative analysis of genomic and exposomic data in relation to internalizing and externalizing symptoms in a cohort of 4,314 unrelated youth from the Adolescent Brain and Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study. METHODS: Using novel GREML-based approaches, we model the variance in internalizing and externalizing symptoms explained by additive and interactive influences from the genome (G) and modeled exposome (E) consisting of up to 133 variables at the family, peer, school, neighborhood, life event, and broader environmental levels, including genome-by-exposome (G × E) and exposome-by-exposome (E × E) effects. RESULTS: A best-fitting integrative model with G, E, and G × E components explained 35% and 63% of variance in youth internalizing and externalizing symptoms, respectively. Youth in the top quintile of model-predicted risk accounted for the majority of individuals with clinically elevated symptoms at follow-up (60% for internalizing; 72% for externalizing). Of note, different domains of environmental exposures were most impactful for internalizing (life events) and externalizing (contextual including family, school, and peer-level factors) symptoms. In addition, variance explained by G × E contributions was substantially larger for externalizing (33%) than internalizing (13%) symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Advanced statistical genetic methods in a longitudinal cohort of youth can be leveraged to address fundamental questions about the role of 'nature and nurture' in developmental psychopathology.

Lifestyle Modifies the Diabetes-Related Metabolic Risk, Conditional on Individual Genetic Differences.

Metabolic syndrome is a group of heritable metabolic traits that are highly associated with type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Classical interventions to T2DM include individual self-management of environmental risk factors, such as improving diet quality, increasing physical activity, and reducing smoking and alcohol consumption, which decreases the risk of developing metabolic syndrome. However, it is poorly understood how the phenotypes of diabetes-related metabolic traits change with respect to lifestyle modifications at the individual level. In the analysis, we used 12 diabetes-related metabolic traits and eight lifestyle covariates from the UK Biobank comprising 288,837 white British participants genotyped for 1,133,273 genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms. We found 16 GxE interactions. Modulation of genetic effects by physical activity was seen for four traits (glucose, HbA1c, C-reactive protein, systolic blood pressure) and by alcohol and smoking for three (BMI, glucose, waist-hip ratio and BMI and diastolic and systolic blood pressure, respectively). We also found a number of significant phenotypic modulations by the lifestyle covariates, which were not attributed to the genetic effects in the model. Overall, modulation in the metabolic risk in response to the level of lifestyle covariates was clearly observed, and its direction and magnitude were varied depending on individual differences. We also showed that the metabolic risk inferred by our model was notably higher in T2DM prospective cases than controls. Our findings highlight the importance of individual genetic differences in the prevention and management of diabetes and suggest that the one-size-fits-all approach may not benefit all.

An opportunity for primary prevention research in psychotic disorders.

An opportunity has opened for research into primary prevention of psychotic disorders, based on progress in endophenotypes, genetics, and genomics. Primary prevention requires reliable prediction of susceptibility before any symptoms are present. We studied a battery of measures where published data supports abnormalities of these measurements prior to appearance of initial psychosis symptoms. These neurobiological and behavioral measurements included cognition, eye movement tracking, Event Related Potentials, and polygenic risk scores. They generated an acceptably precise separation of healthy controls from outpatients with a psychotic disorder. METHODS: The Bipolar and Schizophrenia Network on Intermediate Phenotypes (B-SNIP) measured this battery in an ancestry-diverse series of consecutively recruited adult outpatients with a psychotic disorder and healthy controls. Participants include all genders, 16 to 50 years of age, 261 with psychotic disorders (Schizophrenia (SZ) 109, Bipolar with psychosis (BPP) 92, Schizoaffective disorder (SAD) 60), 110 healthy controls. Logistic Regression, and an extension of the Linear Mixed Model to include analysis of pairwise interactions between measures (Environmental kernel Relationship Matrices (ERM)) with multiple iterations, were performed to predict case-control status. Each regression analysis was validated with four-fold cross-validation. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Sensitivity, specificity, and Area Under the Curve of Receiver Operating Characteristic of 85%, 62%, and 86%, respectively, were obtained for both analytic methods. These prediction metrics demonstrate a promising diagnostic distinction based on premorbid risk variables. There were also statistically significant pairwise interactions between measures in the ERM model. The strong prediction metrics of both types of analytic model provide proof-of-principle for biologically-based laboratory tests as a first step toward primary prevention studies. Prospective studies of adolescents at elevated risk, vs. healthy adolescent controls, would be a next step toward development of primary prevention strategies.

An integrative analysis of genomic and exposomic data for complex traits and phenotypic prediction.

Complementary to the genome, the concept of exposome has been proposed to capture the totality of human environmental exposures. While there has been some recent progress on the construction of the exposome, few tools exist that can integrate the genome and exposome for complex trait analyses. Here we propose a linear mixed model approach to bridge this gap, which jointly models the random effects of the two omics layers on phenotypes of complex traits. We illustrate our approach using traits from the UK Biobank (e.g., BMI and height for N ~ 35,000) with a small fraction of the exposome that comprises 28 lifestyle factors. The joint model of the genome and exposome explains substantially more phenotypic variance and significantly improves phenotypic prediction accuracy, compared to the model based on the genome alone. The additional phenotypic variance captured by the exposome includes its additive effects as well as non-additive effects such as genome-exposome (gxe) and exposome-exposome (exe) interactions. For example, 19% of variation in BMI is explained by additive effects of the genome, while additional 7.2% by additive effects of the exposome, 1.9% by exe interactions and 4.5% by gxe interactions. Correspondingly, the prediction accuracy for BMI, computed using Pearson's correlation between the observed and predicted phenotypes, improves from 0.15 (based on the genome alone) to 0.35 (based on the genome and exposome). We also show, using established theories, that integrating genomic and exposomic data can be an effective way of attaining a clinically meaningful level of prediction accuracy for disease traits. In conclusion, the genomic and exposomic effects can contribute to phenotypic variation via their latent relationships, i.e. genome-exposome correlation, and gxe and exe interactions, and modelling these effects has a potential to improve phenotypic prediction accuracy and thus holds a great promise for future clinical practice.

Adiposity and cancer: a Mendelian randomization analysis in the UK biobank.

BACKGROUND: Observational and Mendelian randomization (MR) studies link obesity and cancer, but it remains unclear whether these depend upon related metabolic abnormalities. METHODS: We used information from 321,472 participants in the UK biobank, including 30,561 cases of obesity-related cancer. We constructed three genetic instruments reflecting higher adiposity together with either "unfavourable" (82 SNPs), "favourable" (24 SNPs) or "neutral" metabolic profile (25 SNPs). We looked at associations with 14 types of cancer, previously suggested to be associated with obesity. RESULTS: All genetic instruments had a strong association with BMI (p < 1 × 10-300 for all). The instrument reflecting unfavourable adiposity was also associated with higher CRP, HbA1c and adverse lipid profile, while instrument reflecting metabolically favourable adiposity was associated with lower HbA1c and a favourable lipid profile. In MR-inverse-variance weighted analysis unfavourable adiposity was associated with an increased risk of non-hormonal cancers (OR = 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.08, 1.38), but a lower risk of hormonal cancers (OR = 0.80, 95%CI: 0.72, 0.89). From individual cancers, MR analyses suggested causal increases in the risk of multiple myeloma (OR = 1.36, 95%CI: 1.09, 1.70) and endometrial cancer (OR = 1.77, 95%CI: 1.16, 2.68) by greater genetically instrumented unfavourable adiposity but lower risks of breast and prostate cancer (OR = 0.72, 95%CI: 0.61, 0.83 and OR = 0.81, 95%CI: 0.68, 0.97, respectively). Favourable or neutral adiposity were not associated with the odds of any individual cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Higher adiposity associated with a higher risk of non-hormonal cancer but a lower risk of some hormone related cancers. Presence of metabolic abnormalities might aggravate the adverse effects of higher adiposity on cancer. Further studies are warranted to investigate whether interventions on adverse metabolic health may help to alleviate obesity-related cancer risk.

Contextualizing genetic risk score for disease screening and rare variant discovery.

Studies of the genetic basis of complex traits have demonstrated a substantial role for common, small-effect variant polygenic burden (PB) as well as large-effect variants (LEV, primarily rare). We identify sufficient conditions in which GWAS-derived PB may be used for well-powered rare pathogenic variant discovery or as a sample prioritization tool for whole-genome or exome sequencing. Through extensive simulations of genetic architectures and generative models of disease liability with parameters informed by empirical data, we quantify the power to detect, among cases, a lower PB in LEV carriers than in non-carriers. Furthermore, we uncover clinically useful conditions wherein the risk derived from the PB is comparable to the LEV-derived risk. The resulting summary-statistics-based methodology (with publicly available software, PB-LEV-SCAN) makes predictions on PB-based LEV screening for 36 complex traits, which we confirm in several disease datasets with available LEV information in the UK Biobank, with important implications on clinical decision-making.