Cross-Cultural Validity of Sexual Recidivism Risk Assessments Using Static-99R, STABLE-2007, and the VRS-SO.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The overrepresentation of certain racial/ethnic groups in criminal legal systems raises concerns about the cross-cultural application of risk assessment tools. We provide a framework for conceptualizing and measuring racial bias/fairness and review research for three tools assessing risk of sexual recidivism: Static-99R, STABLE-2007, and VRS-SO. RECENT FINDINGS: Most cross-cultural research examines Static-99R and generally supports its use with Black, White, Hispanic, and Asian men. Preliminary research also supports STABLE-2007 with Asian men. Findings are most concerning for Indigenous men, where Static-99R and STABLE-2007 significantly predict sexual recidivism, but with significantly and meaningfully lower accuracy compared to White men. For the VRS-SO and the combined Static-99R/STABLE-2007 risk levels, predictive accuracy was not significantly lower for Indigenous men, for which we discuss several possible explanations. We offer considerations for risk scale selection with Indigenous men and highlight recent guidance produced for cross-cultural risk assessment.

Dynamic Risk Scales Degrade Over Time: Evidence for Reassessments.

Risk tools containing dynamic (potentially changeable) factors are routinely used to evaluate the recidivism risk of justice-involved individuals. Although frequent reassessments are recommended, there is little research on how the predictive accuracy of dynamic risk assessments changes over time. This study examined the extent to which predictive accuracy decreases over time for the ACUTE-2007 and the STABLE-2007 sexual recidivism risk tools. We used two independent samples of men on community supervision (NStudy 1 = 795; NStudy 2 = 4,221). For all outcomes (sexual, violent, and any recidivism [including technical violations]), reassessments improved predictive accuracy, with the largest effects found for the most recent assessment (i.e., those closest in time prior to the recidivism event). Based on these results, we recommend that ACUTE-2007 assessments occur at least every 30 days and that the STABLE-2007 assessments occur every 6 months or after significant life changes (e.g., successful completion of treatment).

Predictive accuracy of Static-99R across different racial/ethnic groups: A meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The overrepresentation of numerous racial/ethnic groups in the criminal legal system warrants examination of the cross-cultural applicability of risk assessment tools. Static-99R is a tool used in diverse countries to assess sexual recidivism risk. We conducted a meta-analysis on the predictive accuracy of Static-99R across different racial/ethnic groups. HYPOTHESES: No hypotheses were made regarding discrimination, given that past research could support hypotheses of differential or equivalent accuracy. We hypothesized that Indigenous individuals would score higher on Static-99R than non-Indigenous or White individuals. METHOD: Our search identified 18 eligible documents (from 17 distinct studies) with 41 nonoverlapping effect sizes. These 17 studies examined the predictive accuracy of Static-99R with racially/ethnically diverse men charged with or convicted of sexually motivated offenses. We report analyses using both fixed-effect and random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Indigenous and Black individuals scored significantly higher on Static-99R than their non-Indigenous or White counterparts, with small effect sizes. For discrimination, area under the curve (AUC) values were generally moderate-to-large and statistically significant for all groups in both fixed-effect and random-effects analyses. Within-study subgroup analyses indicated significantly lower accuracy for Indigenous and Hispanic individuals compared with White/non-Indigenous samples (though for Hispanic individuals, this finding was significant only in the fixed-effect analyses). No statistically significant differences in accuracy were found between White and Black individuals. Static-99R significantly predicted recidivism with large effect sizes across two samples of Asian individuals. Two studies supported calibration across Black, White, and Hispanic individuals. Two studies examining calibration of Static-99R for Indigenous individuals had mixed findings. CONCLUSIONS: Given a small number of studies and limitations with both the fixed- and random-effects analyses, readers should interpret findings regarding Hispanic individuals with caution. The analyses clearly found significant but lower accuracy for Static-99R with Indigenous individuals. Potential reasons for this differential accuracy are discussed, along with limitations of the meta-analysis and suggestions for research and practice. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Predictive Validity of Static-99R Among 8,207 Men Convicted of Sexual Crimes in South Korea: A Prospective Field Study.

The accuracy of risk assessment tools for Asian populations has received relatively little research attention. This study evaluated one of the most widely used static risk assessment tools - Static-99R - for assessing the likelihood of recidivism among men convicted of a sexual crime in South Korea. Overall, this South Korean sample (N = 8207) appeared to have a higher risk (more paraphilic interests, more sexual/general criminality) than the Static-99R normative samples (who were mostly White individuals from Western countries). Despite the differences, Static-99R was able to discriminate recidivists from nonrecidivists in South Korea, with AUC values similar to that observed in the normative samples (e.g., 0.72 for sexual recidivism). In terms of calibration, the observed sexual recidivism rates of the current sample were higher than the international routine/complete normative samples but lower than the high-risk/high-need normative samples (E/O = 0.75 and 1.26, respectively). Consequently, evaluators in South Korea can have reasonable confidence in the ability of Static-99R to rank individuals according to their relative likelihood of sexual recidivism.

An Examination of the Latent Constructs in Risk Tools for Individuals Who Sexually Offend: Applying Multidimensional Item Response Theory to the Static-2002R.

Multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) was used to study the construct validity of the Static-2002R, an actuarial scale for the assessment of reoffending among adult men who sexually offended. Using a sample of 2,569 individuals with a history of sexual crime, exploratory factor analysis (EFA) extracted three factors: Persistence/Paraphilia, General Criminality, and Youthful Stranger Aggression. MIRT confirmed the factor structure identified in the EFA model and provided item-level data on discrimination and difficulty. All Static-2002R items showed moderate to very high discrimination and covered a wide range of risk levels (i.e., difficulty). MIRT analyses attested to the construct validity of the scale, as no items were identified as problematic and the resulting factor structure was consistent with that of earlier studies. Considering the stability of results pertaining to the factor structure of the Static-2002R and the advantages of dimensional scoring, we recommend the integration of dimensional scores in the scale.

Long Term Recidivism Rates Among Individuals at High Risk to Sexually Reoffend.

Preventive detention provisions in the US and Canada assume we can identify, in advance, individuals at high risk for sexual recidivism. To test this assumption, 377 adult males with a history of sexual offending were followed for 20 years using Canadian national criminal history records and Internet searches. Using previously collected information, a high risk/high need (HRHN) subgroup was identified based on an unusually high levels of criminogenic needs (n = 190, average age of 38 years; 83% White, 13% Indigenous, 4% other). A well above average subgroup of 99 individuals was then identified based on high Static-99R (6+) and Static-2002R (7+) scores. In the HRHN group, 40% reoffended sexually. STATIC HRHN norms overestimated sexual recidivism at 5 years (Static-99R, E/O = 1.44; Static-2002R, E/O = 1.72) but were well calibrated for longer follow-up periods (20 years: Static-99R, E/0 = 1.00; Static-2002R, E/O = 1.16). The overall sexual recidivism rate for the well above average subgroup was 52.1% after 20 years, and 74.3% for any violent recidivism. The highest risk individuals (top 1%) had rates in the 60%-70% range. We conclude that some individuals present a high risk for sexual recidivism, and can be identified using currently available methods.

Updated 5-year and new 10-year sexual recidivism rate norms for Static-99R with routine/complete samples.

Objective: The purpose of this study was to develop new 10-year recidivism rate norms as well as to update 5-year norms for the Static-99R risk tool for routine/complete samples. We also present the extrapolated sexual recidivism rates from these new 10-year norms for follow-up periods of 11 to 20 years. Hypotheses: We hypothesized that absolute-recidivism base rates (B02; i.e., the intercept centered on the median score of 2) would vary; however, the relative predictive accuracy (i.e., discrimination; B1) would be stable across samples. In addition, compared with the estimated sexual recidivism rates with a fixed 5-year follow-up time, the estimated rates with a fixed 10-year follow-up time would be expected to be consistently higher across the Static-99R scores. Method: The current study included 12 independent samples (N = 7,224 for the 5-year recidivism rate norms; N = 1,599 [k = 6] for the 10-year norms) classified as routine/complete samples, that is, relatively random samples from a correctional system. Logistic regression parameters (B02 and B1) across the studies were aggregated using fixed-effect meta-analyses. Results: There was statistically significant variability in the base rates (B02), whereas the between-sample variability in the relative-risk parameters (B1) was no more than would be expected by chance. As expected, the 10-year base rates were approximately 1.5 times higher than the 5-year base rates (7.20% vs. 4.58%), and the extrapolated 20-year sexual recidivism rates were approximately double the observed 5-year sexual recidivism rates. Conclusions: The current study provides empirical evidence to estimate 5- and 10-year sexual recidivism rates based on Static-99R total scores. Evaluators who are especially concerned about long-term sexual recidivism risk (e.g., civil commitment) can report the expected sexual recidivism risk based on the new 10-year norms and the extrapolated sexual recidivism rates for follow-up periods of 11 to 20 years. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Paraphilia and Antisociality: Motivations for Sexual Offending May Differ for American Whites and Blacks.

There has been little research on the sexual offending behavior of different racial groups. This study compares the characteristics and risk factors for American, non-Hispanic Whites (n =797) and Blacks (n = 788) who had been convicted of a sexual crime in New Jersey. The results indicated that Whites appeared more paraphilic whereas Blacks displayed higher antisociality. Despite the differences, however, the Static-99R, sexual recidivism risk tool, predicted equally well for both racial groups: Whites (area under the curve [AUC] = .76) and Blacks (AUC = .78). The findings suggest that there may be opportunities to improve treatment for the individuals at risk for sexual offending by tailoring interventions to the distinctive risk-relevant characteristics of Whites and Blacks.

Utility of the Static-99 and Static-99R With Latino Sex Offenders.

The predictive validity of the Static-99 measures with ethnic minorities in the United States has only recently been assessed with mixed results. We assessed the predictive validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R with a sample of Latino sex offenders ( N = 483) as well as with two subsamples (U.S.-born, including Puerto Rico, and non-U.S.-born). The overall sexual recidivism rate was very low (1.9%). Both the Static-99 measures were able to predict sexual recidivism for offenders born in the United States and Puerto Rico, but neither was effective in doing so for other Latino immigrants. Calibration analyses ( N = 303) of the Static-99R were consistent with the literature and provided support for the potential use of the measure with Latinos born in the United States and Puerto Rico. These findings and their implications are discussed as they pertain to the assessment of Latino sex offenders.

Recidivism risk factors are correlated with a history of psychiatric hospitalization among sex offenders.

Sexual offenders are more likely to have a history of psychiatric hospitalization compared with the general population. This finding suggests that a history of psychiatric hospitalization is a plausible risk factor for the initiation of sexual crimes. It is less clear, however, whether psychiatric hospitalization is associated with risk factors for criminal recidivism. Consequently, the current study examined the correlates of psychiatric hospitalization and its relevance for risk assessment in a sample of sexual offenders on community supervision (N = 947). In this sample, a history of psychiatric hospitalization significantly increased the rate of sexual recidivism (hazard ratio = 1.95). After controlling for well-established risk factors, however, the association was no longer statistically significant. Consequently, this study supported an indirect effect of a history of psychiatric hospitalization, such that the association between psychiatric symptoms and recidivism was mediated by criminogenic needs (e.g., poor general self-regulation, loneliness, and social rejection). Replication studies are needed to confirm this association, and to further understand the link between mental illness and recidivism for sexual offenders. (PsycINFO Database Record

Expression of rice SUB1A and SUB1C transcription factors in Arabidopsis uncovers flowering inhibition as a submergence tolerance mechanism.

Submergence of plant organs perturbs homeostasis by limiting diffusion of oxygen, carbon dioxide and ethylene. In rice (Oryza sativa L.), the haplotype at the multigenic SUBMERGENCE1 (SUB1) locus determines whether plants survive prolonged submergence. SUB1 encodes two or three transcription factors of the group VII ethylene response factor family: SUB1A, SUB1B and SUB1C. The presence of SUB1A-1 and its strong submergence-triggered ethylene-mediated induction confers submergence tolerance through a quiescence survival strategy that inhibits gibberellin (GA)-induced carbohydrate consumption and elongation growth. SUB1C is invariably present and acts downstream of the enhancement of GA responsiveness during submergence. In this study, heterologous ectopic expression of rice SUB1A and SUB1C in Arabidopsis thaliana was used to explore conserved mechanisms of action associated with these genes using developmental, physiological and molecular metrics. As in rice transgenic plants that ectopically express SUB1A-1, Arabidopsis transgenic plants that constitutively express SUB1A displayed GA insensitivity and abscisic acid hypersensitivity. Ectopic SUB1C expression had more limited effects on development, stress responses and the transcriptome. Observation of a delayed flowering phenotype in lines over-expressing SUB1A led to the finding that inhibition of floral initiation is a component of the quiescence survival strategy in rice. Together, these analyses demonstrate conserved as well as specific roles for group VII ethylene response factors in integration of abiotic responses with development.

Momilactone B, an allelochemical of rice hulls, induces apoptosis on human lymphoma cells (Jurkat) in a micromolar concentration.

Although momilactone B has been studied as an allelochemical of rice (Oryza sativa L.), to date we have no report showing the effect of momilactone B on mammalian cells. This study was undertaken to examine whether this allelochemical has anticancer activity on cancer cells. We show here that momilactone B at micromolar doses has antitumor efficacy by inducing apoptosis in several blood cancer cells including human leukemic T cells. In addition, our study elucidated that anticancer activity of momilactone B on human leukemic T cells resulted from the induction of apoptosis via caspase and mitochondria. From these results, momilactone B can be considered as a novel therapeutic strategy for human leukemic T cells from its direct apoptosis-inducing activity.