The role of heterogeneity in the persistence and prevalence of Sin Nombre virus in deer mice.

Many diseases persist at a relatively low prevalence, seemingly close to extinction. For a chronic disease in a homogeneous population, reducing the transmission rate by a fraction proportional to the prevalence would be sufficient to eradicate the disease. This study examines how higher prevalence of the Sin Nombre virus in male deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) might contribute to disease persistence. Analyzing data from over 2,000 individual mice captured in 19 sites over 4 years, we found prevalences of 18.5% in males and 8.8% in females. By examining recaptures, we determined that males are more likely to contract the infection because of higher susceptibility or higher encounter rates. Comparing across 86 sampling periods, we found a higher proportion of males when population densities were low. A capture-recapture analysis indicates that males live longer than females. A mathematical model based on the measured parameters and population size trajectories suggests that the combined heterogeneity in encounters, susceptibility, and mortality may buffer the disease from extinction by concentrating disease in the subgroup most likely to transmit the disease. This buffering effect is not significantly stronger in a fluctuating population, indicating that these forms of heterogeneity might not be the key for disease persistence through host population bottlenecks.

Central and peripheral temperature changes in sheep following ovariectomy.

OBJECTIVES: To determine if ovariectomized ewes undergo periodic body temperature rises (hot flashes) similar to women at menopause. METHODS: Eighteen mature ewes were assigned to ovariectomy (OVX), ovariectomy+17 beta-estradiol implant (OVXE) or Sham. Electronic temperature loggers placed subcutaneously over the carotid artery and within the abdomen (core) and subcutaneously in the thigh and axilla (peripheral) were programmed to record body temperatures every 2.5 min for 59 days. Circadian rhythm changes were avoided by dividing readings into 1 h intervals. Hot flashes were defined as a 0.2 or 0.4 degrees C increase over the minimum temperature recorded for a 1 h interval for each sheep. RESULTS: Logger placement did not reflect core and peripheral temperatures. The carotid and abdominal sites were most useful. The percentage of readings considered HF at the carotid site was 63% OVX, 54% OVXE and 37% Sham (P<0.001), and at the abdominal site were 32% OVX, 15% OVE and 17% Sham (P<0.001). When only the first 7 days after ovariectomy were analyzed, the percentage of readings considered to be HF at the carotid site was 75% OVX, 63% OVXE, and 49% Sham (P<0.001), and at the abdominal site was 35% OVX, 15% OVXE and 17% Sham (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Ovariectomy in the ewe does illicit changes in body temperature compared with control ewes, which may be interpreted as HF. However, shifts in the circadian rhythm were not apparent. Estradiol treatment led to milder and less frequent HF. Periodic HF in species other than rats have heretofore not been reported.