Geographical variation in hepatitis C-related severe liver disease and patient risk factors: a multicentre cross-sectional study.

Despite promising steps towards the elimination of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the UK, several indicators provide a cause for concern for future disease burden. We aimed to improve understanding of geographical variation in HCV-related severe liver disease and historic risk factor prevalence among clinic attendees in England and Scotland. We used metadata from 3829 HCV-positive patients consecutively enrolled into HCV Research UK from 48 hospital centres in England and Scotland during 2012-2014. Employing mixed-effects statistical modelling, several independent risk factors were identified: age 46-59 y (ORadj 3.06) and ≥60 y (ORadj 5.64) relative to <46 y, male relative to female sex (ORadj 1.58), high BMI (ORadj 1.73) and obesity (ORadj 2.81) relative to normal BMI, diabetes relative to no diabetes (ORadj 2.75), infection with HCV genotype (GT)-3 relative to GT-1 (ORadj 1.75), route of infection through blood products relative to injecting drug use (ORadj 1.40), and lower odds were associated with black ethnicity (ORadj 0.31) relative to white ethnicity. A small proportion of unexplained variation was attributed to differences between hospital centres and local health authorities. Our study provides a baseline measure of historic risk factor prevalence and potential geographical variation in healthcare provision, to support ongoing monitoring of HCV-related disease burden and the design of risk prevention measures.

The evolutionary dynamics and epidemiological history of hepatitis C virus genotype 6, including unique strains from the Li community of Hainan Island, China.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a highly diverse pathogen that frequently establishes a chronic long-term infection, but the origins and drivers of HCV diversity in the human population remain unclear. Previously unidentified strains of HCV genotype 6 (gt6) were recently discovered in chronically infected individuals of the Li ethnic group living in Baisha County, Hainan Island, China. The Li community, who were early settlers on Hainan Island, has a distinct host genetic background and cultural identity compared to other ethnic groups on the island and mainland China. In this report, we generated 33 whole virus genome sequences to conduct a comprehensive molecular epidemiological analysis of these novel gt6 strains in the context of gt6 isolates present in Southeast Asia. With the exception of one gt6a isolate, the Li gt6 sequences formed three novel clades from two lineages which constituted 3 newly assigned gt6 subtypes and 30 unassigned strains. Using Bayesian inference methods, we dated the most recent common ancestor for all available gt6 whole virus genome sequences to approximately 2767 bce (95 per cent highest posterior density (HPD) intervals, 3670-1397 bce), which is far earlier than previous estimates. The substitution rate was 1.20 × 10-4 substitutions/site/year (s/s/y), and this rate varied across the genome regions, from 1.02 × 10-5 s/s/y in the 5'untranslated region (UTR) region to 3.07 × 10-4 s/s/y in E2. Thus, our study on an isolated ethnic minority group within a small geographical area of Hainan Island has substantially increased the known diversity of HCV gt6, already acknowledged as the most diverse HCV genotype. The extant HCV gt6 sequences from this study were probably transmitted to the Li through at least three independent events dating perhaps from around 4,000 years ago. This analysis describes deeper insight into basic aspects of HCV gt6 molecular evolution including the extensive diversity of gt6 sequences in the isolated Li ethnic group.

The role of surgery in weaning patients from home parenteral support - A cohort study.

AIM: Some patients with intestinal failure requiring home parenteral support (HPS) may be weaned. This study considered all abdominal surgery in a cohort of HPS patients over a 25-year period. Our aim was to identify how many patients can be weaned from HPS and by what means, and to identify what makes weaning more likely. METHOD: A prospectively collected database of HPS patients to December 2018 was analysed for outcomes of care. RESULTS: At 5 years 56% of 205 patients remained on HPS. Fifty eight patients (28%), who had 68 operations, stopped HPS after surgery. Patients stopping HPS had a longer median final small bowel length (155 cm, range 45-350 cm) and were more likely to have colon in circuit (84%) than patients who had reconstructive surgery but did not stop HPS (median small bowel length 50 cm, range 15-135 cm; 50% colon in circuit). The median period between HPS discharge and reconstructive surgery was 238 days. There were no deaths, but 18 Clavien-Dindo grade 3-4 complications occurred within 30 days. Ninety per cent of patients who stopped HPS survived for 5 years from the start of HPS in comparison with 53% of those who remained on HPS. CONCLUSIONS: No previous study has examined surgery in an entire cohort of HPS patients. More than a quarter of HPS patients can be weaned after reconstructive surgery. The length of bowel available for recruitment at surgery is the main determinant of the ability to stop HPS. The possibility of reconstruction should be considered, since patients who stop HPS appear to have a survival advantage.

Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck, WMAP, and BICEP/Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season.

We present results from an analysis of all data taken by the BICEP2, Keck Array, and BICEP3 CMB polarization experiments up to and including the 2018 observing season. We add additional Keck Array observations at 220 GHz and BICEP3 observations at 95 GHz to the previous 95/150/220 GHz dataset. The Q/U maps now reach depths of 2.8, 2.8, and 8.8 µK_{CMB} arcmin at 95, 150, and 220 GHz, respectively, over an effective area of ≈600 square degrees at 95 GHz and ≈400 square degrees at 150 and 220 GHz. The 220 GHz maps now achieve a signal-to-noise ratio on polarized dust emission exceeding that of Planck at 353 GHz. We take auto- and cross-spectra between these maps and publicly available WMAP and Planck maps at frequencies from 23 to 353 GHz and evaluate the joint likelihood of the spectra versus a multicomponent model of lensed ΛCDM+r+dust+synchrotron+noise. The foreground model has seven parameters, and no longer requires a prior on the frequency spectral index of the dust emission taken from measurements on other regions of the sky. This model is an adequate description of the data at the current noise levels. The likelihood analysis yields the constraint r_{0.05}<0.036 at 95% confidence. Running maximum likelihood search on simulations we obtain unbiased results and find that σ(r)=0.009. These are the strongest constraints to date on primordial gravitational waves.

Changes in adult home parenteral nutrition practice over 25 years.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Home Parenteral Nutrition (HPN) is the established treatment of intestinal failure. This study considers the changes in practice in a single UK centre over the past twenty-five years. METHODS: Data was culled from a database used for clinical care and maintained prospectively. RESULTS: Two hundred and five patients were included from 1993 to 2018. Patient numbers increased from 22 during 1999-2003 to 158 during 2014-2018. The median age at discharge increased from 52 years during 1999-2003 to 59 years during 2014-2018. Thirty percent of patients discharged during 1999-2003 had Crohn's disease, reducing to 14% during 2014-2018. Fifteen percent of patients discharged during 1999-2003 had small bowel fistula or obstruction in comparison to 44% during 2014-2018. Only 18 patients were treated with palliative intent, the majority in recent years. An increasing number of patients required help with HPN care over the years. Survival in non-palliative patients was 85% at 1 year, 67% at 3 years, 53% at 5 years and 42% at 10 years. The majority of deaths were due to underlying disease and only 5 of 55 deaths were attributed to HPN alone. HPN dependence in non-palliative patients was 73% at 1 year, 59% at 3 years, 56% at 5 years and 43% at 10 years. Fifty eight patients stopped HPN after reconstructive surgery. Patients experienced 5.1 admissions/1000 HPN days (64.7 admission days/1000 HPN days). Admission rate did not change over the years though the percentage due to catheter problems fell from 52% to 40% while the percentage due to underlying disease or unrelated cause rose. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in numbers, age and dependency of HPN patients requires increasing resource and consideration of new models of service. Many patients with short bowel syndrome now survive to old age and the care needs of the HPN patient who has become elderly can be complex. A significant proportion of patients are being referred for HPN as a bridge to reconstructive surgery after surgical complication and this requires close involvement of gastrointestinal surgeons in HPN teams. The need for hospital admissions remains a burden for HPN patients and there is scope for changes in service provision to try to reduce hospital days.

COVID-19 infection in patients with intestinal failure: UK experience.

BACKGROUND: The direct effect of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on patients with intestinal failure (IF) has not been described. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide study of UK IF centers to evaluate the infection rates, presentations, and outcomes in patients with types 2 and 3 IF. RESULTS: A total of 45 patients with IF contracted COVID-19 between March and August 2020; this included 26 of 2191 (1.2%) home parenteral nutrition (HPN)-dependent adults and 19 of 298 (6.4%) adults hospitalized with type 2 IF. The proportion of patients receiving nursing care for HPN administration was higher in those with community-acquired COVID-19 (66.7%) than the proportion in the entire HPN cohort (26.1%; P < .01). Two HPN-dependent and 1 hospitalized patient with type 2 IF died as a direct consequence of the virus (6.7% of 45 patients with types 2 or 3 infected). CONCLUSION: This is the first study to describe the outcomes of COVID-19 in a large cohort of patients requiring long-term PN. Methods to reduce hospital and community nosocomial spread would likely be beneficial.

Genomic epidemiology reveals multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 from mainland Europe into Scotland.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first diagnosed in Scotland on 1 March 2020. During the first month of the outbreak, 2,641 cases of COVID-19 led to 1,832 hospital admissions, 207 intensive care admissions and 126 deaths. We aimed to identify the source and number of introductions of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) into Scotland using a combined phylogenetic and epidemiological approach. Sequencing of 1,314 SARS-CoV-2 viral genomes from available patient samples enabled us to estimate that SARS-CoV-2 was introduced to Scotland on at least 283 occasions during February and March 2020. Epidemiological analysis confirmed that early introductions of SARS-CoV-2 originated from mainland Europe (the majority from Italy and Spain). We identified subsequent early outbreaks in the community, within healthcare facilities and at an international conference. Community transmission occurred after 2 March, 3 weeks before control measures were introduced. Earlier travel restrictions or quarantine measures, both locally and internationally, would have reduced the number of COVID-19 cases in Scotland. The risk of multiple reintroduction events in future waves of infection remains high in the absence of population immunity.

HCV genotype 6 prevalence, spontaneous clearance and diversity among elderly members of the Li ethnic minority in Baisha County, China.

The epidemiology of hepatitis C virus varies widely across geographical regions and ethnic groups. Our previous study showed that 6 strains isolated from Baisha County, Hainan Island, China, were all new genotype 6 (gt6) subtypes which differed significantly from subtypes of other regions. In the current study, we conducted a comprehensive epidemiological survey of HCV in the Li ethnic group, native to Baisha County. Anti-HCV antibodies were detected by 2 independent ELISAs in all participants, and positive results confirmed by the recombinant immunoblot assay (RIBA) and HCV RNA viral loads were measured. Univariate chi-square test and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors for HCV infection and spontaneous clearance rates. Indeterminate RIBA results were excluded or included in analyses; consequently, findings were expressed as a range. Direct sequencing of partial regions within NS5B and E1 was employed for genotyping. Among 1682 participants, 117 to 153 were anti-HCV positive (7.0%-9.1%), with 42.7%-52.6% confirmed to have cleared infection. Anti-HCV positivity was associated with older age (≥60 years) (OR = 0.02, 95% CI 0.01-0.05, P < 0.01) and surgery (OR = 2.75, 95% CI 1.36-5.57, P < 0.01), with no significant difference found between the HCV infection group and the HCV spontaneous clearance group. The gt6 subtype distribution characteristics of Baisha County were unique, complex and diverse. The sequences did not cluster with known gt6 subtypes but formed 4 Baisha community-specific groups. HCV infection in members of the Li minority ethnic group is characterized by high prevalence rates in the elderly, high spontaneous clearance rates and broad gt6 diversity.

Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves Using Planck, WMAP, and New BICEP2/Keck Observations through the 2015 Season.

We present results from an analysis of all data taken by the bicep2/Keck CMB polarization experiments up to and including the 2015 observing season. This includes the first Keck Array observations at 220 GHz and additional observations at 95 and 150 GHz. The Q and U maps reach depths of 5.2, 2.9, and 26 µK_{CMB} arcmin at 95, 150, and 220 GHz, respectively, over an effective area of ≈400 square degrees. The 220 GHz maps achieve a signal to noise on polarized dust emission approximately equal to that of Planck at 353 GHz. We take auto and cross spectra between these maps and publicly available WMAP and Planck maps at frequencies from 23 to 353 GHz. We evaluate the joint likelihood of the spectra versus a multicomponent model of lensed-ΛCDM+r+dust+synchrotron+noise. The foreground model has seven parameters, and we impose priors on some of these using external information from Planck and WMAP derived from larger regions of sky. The model is shown to be an adequate description of the data at the current noise levels. The likelihood analysis yields the constraint r_{0.05}<0.07 at 95% confidence, which tightens to r_{0.05}<0.06 in conjunction with Planck temperature measurements and other data. The lensing signal is detected at 8.8σ significance. Running a maximum likelihood search on simulations we obtain unbiased results and find that σ(r)=0.020. These are the strongest constraints to date on primordial gravitational waves.

Prevalence of mixed genotype hepatitis C virus infections in the UK as determined by genotype-specific PCR and deep sequencing.

The incidence of mixed genotype hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections in the UK is largely unknown. As the efficacy of direct-acting antivirals is variable across different genotypes, treatment regimens are tailored to the infecting genotype, which may pose issues for the treatment of underlying genotypes within undiagnosed mixed genotype HCV infections. There is therefore a need to accurately diagnose mixed genotype infections prior to treatment. PCR-based diagnostic tools were developed to screen for the occurrence of mixed genotype infections caused by the most common UK genotypes, 1a and 3, in a cohort of 506 individuals diagnosed with either of these genotypes. The overall prevalence rate of mixed infection was 3.8%; however, this rate was unevenly distributed, with 6.7% of individuals diagnosed with genotype 3 harbouring genotype 1a strains and only 0.8% of samples from genotype 1a patients harbouring genotype 3 (P < .05). Mixed infection samples consisted of a major and a minor genotype, with the latter constituting less than 21% of the total viral load and, in 67% of cases, less than 1% of the viral load. Analysis of a subset of the cohort by Illumina PCR next-generation sequencing resulted in a much greater incidence rate than obtained by PCR. This may have occurred due to the nonquantitative nature of the technique and despite the designation of false-positive thresholds based on negative controls.

Analysis of lesion localisation at colonoscopy: outcomes from a multi-centre U.K. study.

BACKGROUND: Colonoscopy is currently the gold standard for detection of colorectal lesions, but may be limited in anatomically localising lesions. This audit aimed to determine the accuracy of colonoscopy lesion localisation, any subsequent changes in surgical management and any potentially influencing factors. METHODS: Patients undergoing colonoscopy prior to elective curative surgery for colorectal lesion/s were included from 8 registered U.K. sites (2012-2014). Three sets of data were recorded: patient factors (age, sex, BMI, screener vs. symptomatic, previous abdominal surgery); colonoscopy factors (caecal intubation, scope guide used, colonoscopist accreditation) and imaging modality. Lesion localisation was standardised with intra-operative location taken as the gold standard. Changes to surgical management were recorded. RESULTS: 364 cases were included; majority of lesions were colonic, solitary, malignant and in symptomatic referrals. 82% patients had their lesion/s correctly located at colonoscopy. Pre-operative CT visualised lesion/s in only 73% of cases with a reduction in screening patients (64 vs. 77%; p = 0.008). 5.2% incorrectly located cases at colonoscopy underwent altered surgical management, including conversion to open. Univariate analysis found colonoscopy accreditation, scope guide use, incomplete colonoscopy and previous abdominal surgery significantly influenced lesion localisation. On multi-variate analysis, caecal intubation and scope guide use remained significant (HR 0.35, 0.20-0.60 95% CI and 0.47; 0.25-0.88, respectively). CONCLUSION: Lesion localisation at colonoscopy is incorrect in 18% of cases leading to potentially significant surgical management alterations. As part of accreditation, colonoscopists need lesion localisation training and awareness of when inaccuracies can occur.

Improved Constraints on Cosmology and Foregrounds from BICEP2 and Keck Array Cosmic Microwave Background Data with Inclusion of 95 GHz Band.

We present results from an analysis of all data taken by the BICEP2 and Keck Array cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization experiments up to and including the 2014 observing season. This includes the first Keck Array observations at 95 GHz. The maps reach a depth of 50 nK deg in Stokes Q and U in the 150 GHz band and 127 nK deg in the 95 GHz band. We take auto- and cross-spectra between these maps and publicly available maps from WMAP and Planck at frequencies from 23 to 353 GHz. An excess over lensed ΛCDM is detected at modest significance in the 95×150 BB spectrum, and is consistent with the dust contribution expected from our previous work. No significant evidence for synchrotron emission is found in spectra such as 23×95, or for correlation between the dust and synchrotron sky patterns in spectra such as 23×353. We take the likelihood of all the spectra for a multicomponent model including lensed ΛCDM, dust, synchrotron, and a possible contribution from inflationary gravitational waves (as parametrized by the tensor-to-scalar ratio r) using priors on the frequency spectral behaviors of dust and synchrotron emission from previous analyses of WMAP and Planck data in other regions of the sky. This analysis yields an upper limit r_{0.05}<0.09 at 95% confidence, which is robust to variations explored in analysis and priors. Combining these B-mode results with the (more model-dependent) constraints from Planck analysis of CMB temperature plus baryon acoustic oscillations and other data yields a combined limit r_{0.05}<0.07 at 95% confidence. These are the strongest constraints to date on inflationary gravitational waves.

Spatiotemporal Reconstruction of the Introduction of Hepatitis C Virus into Scotland and Its Subsequent Regional Transmission.

UNLABELLED: A more comprehensive understanding of hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission dynamics could facilitate public health initiatives to reduce the prevalence of HCV in people who inject drugs. We aimed to determine how HCV sequences entered and spread throughout Scotland and to identify transmission hot spots. A Scottish data set with embedded demographic data was created by sequencing the NS5B of 125 genotype 1a (Gt1a) samples and 166 Gt3a samples and analyzed alongside sequences from public databases. Applying Bayesian inference methods, we reconstructed the global origin and local spatiotemporal dissemination of HCV in Scotland. Scottish sequences mainly formed discrete clusters interspersed between sequences from the rest of the world; the most recent common ancestors of these clusters dated to 1942 to 1952 (Gt1a) and 1926 to 1942 (Gt3a), coincident with global diversification and distribution. Extant Scottish sequences originated in Edinburgh (Gt1a) and Glasgow (Gt3a) in the 1970s, but both genotypes spread from Glasgow to other regions. The dominant Gt1a strain differed between Edinburgh (cluster 2 [C2]), Glasgow (C3), and Aberdeen (C4), whereas significant Gt3a strain specificity occurred only in Aberdeen. Specific clusters initially formed separate transmission zones in Glasgow that subsequently overlapped, occasioning city-wide cocirculation. Transmission hot spots were detected with 45% of samples from patients residing in just 9 of Glasgow's 57 postcode districts. HCV was introduced into Scotland in the 1940s, concomitant with its worldwide dispersal likely arising from global-scale historical events. Cluster-specific transmission hubs were identified in Glasgow, the key Scottish city implicated in HCV dissemination. This fine-scale spatiotemporal reconstruction improves understanding of HCV transmission dynamics in Scotland. IMPORTANCE: HCV is a major health burden and the leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma. Public health needle exchange and "treatment as prevention" strategies targeting HCV are designed to reduce prevalence of the virus in people who inject drugs (PWID), potentially mitigating the future burden of HCV-associated liver disease. Understanding HCV transmission dynamics could increase the effectiveness of such public health initiatives by identifying and targeting regions playing a central role in virus dispersal. In this study, we examined HCV transmission in Scotland by analyzing the genetic relatedness of strains from PWID alongside data inferring the year individuals became infected and residential information at a geographically finer-scale resolution than in previous studies. Clusters of Scotland-specific strains were identified with regional specificity, and mapping the spread of HCV allowed the identification of key areas central to HCV transmission in Scotland. This research provides a basis for identifying HCV transmission hot spots.

Measurement of the cosmic microwave background polarization lensing power spectrum with the POLARBEAR experiment.

Gravitational lensing due to the large-scale distribution of matter in the cosmos distorts the primordial cosmic microwave background (CMB) and thereby induces new, small-scale B-mode polarization. This signal carries detailed information about the distribution of all the gravitating matter between the observer and CMB last scattering surface. We report the first direct evidence for polarization lensing based on purely CMB information, from using the four-point correlations of even- and odd-parity E- and B-mode polarization mapped over ∼30 square degrees of the sky measured by the POLARBEAR experiment. These data were analyzed using a blind analysis framework and checked for spurious systematic contamination using null tests and simulations. Evidence for the signal of polarization lensing and lensing B modes is found at 4.2σ (stat+sys) significance. The amplitude of matter fluctuations is measured with a precision of 27%, and is found to be consistent with the Lambda cold dark matter cosmological model. This measurement demonstrates a new technique, capable of mapping all gravitating matter in the Universe, sensitive to the sum of neutrino masses, and essential for cleaning the lensing B-mode signal in searches for primordial gravitational waves.

Detection of B-mode polarization at degree angular scales by BICEP2.

We report results from the BICEP2 experiment, a cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarimeter specifically designed to search for the signal of inflationary gravitational waves in the B-mode power spectrum around ℓ∼80. The telescope comprised a 26 cm aperture all-cold refracting optical system equipped with a focal plane of 512 antenna coupled transition edge sensor 150 GHz bolometers each with temperature sensitivity of ≈300 µK(CMB)√s. BICEP2 observed from the South Pole for three seasons from 2010 to 2012. A low-foreground region of sky with an effective area of 380 square deg was observed to a depth of 87 nK deg in Stokes Q and U. In this paper we describe the observations, data reduction, maps, simulations, and results. We find an excess of B-mode power over the base lensed-ΛCDM expectation in the range 30 < ℓ < 150, inconsistent with the null hypothesis at a significance of >5σ. Through jackknife tests and simulations based on detailed calibration measurements we show that systematic contamination is much smaller than the observed excess. Cross correlating against WMAP 23 GHz maps we find that Galactic synchrotron makes a negligible contribution to the observed signal. We also examine a number of available models of polarized dust emission and find that at their default parameter values they predict power ∼(5-10)× smaller than the observed excess signal (with no significant cross-correlation with our maps). However, these models are not sufficiently constrained by external public data to exclude the possibility of dust emission bright enough to explain the entire excess signal. Cross correlating BICEP2 against 100 GHz maps from the BICEP1 experiment, the excess signal is confirmed with 3σ significance and its spectral index is found to be consistent with that of the CMB, disfavoring dust at 1.7σ. The observed B-mode power spectrum is well fit by a lensed-ΛCDM+tensor theoretical model with tensor-to-scalar ratio r = 0.20_(-0.05)(+0.07), with r = 0 disfavored at 7.0σ. Accounting for the contribution of foreground, dust will shift this value downward by an amount which will be better constrained with upcoming data sets.

Evidence for gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background polarization from cross-correlation with the cosmic infrared background.

We reconstruct the gravitational lensing convergence signal from cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization data taken by the Polarbear experiment and cross-correlate it with cosmic infrared background maps from the Herschel satellite. From the cross spectra, we obtain evidence for gravitational lensing of the CMB polarization at a statistical significance of 4.0σ and indication of the presence of a lensing B-mode signal at a significance of 2.3σ. We demonstrate that our results are not biased by instrumental and astrophysical systematic errors by performing null tests, checks with simulated and real data, and analytical calculations. This measurement of polarization lensing, made via the robust cross-correlation channel, not only reinforces POLARBEAR auto-correlation measurements, but also represents one of the early steps towards establishing CMB polarization lensing as a powerful new probe of cosmology and astrophysics.