Missing Value Imputation of Wireless Sensor Data for Environmental Monitoring.

Over the past few years, the scale of sensor networks has greatly expanded. This generates extended spatiotemporal datasets, which form a crucial information resource in numerous fields, ranging from sports and healthcare to environmental science and surveillance. Unfortunately, these datasets often contain missing values due to systematic or inadvertent sensor misoperation. This incompleteness hampers the subsequent data analysis, yet addressing these missing observations forms a challenging problem. This is especially the case when both the temporal correlation of timestamps within a single sensor and the spatial correlation between sensors are important. Here, we apply and evaluate 12 imputation methods to complete the missing values in a dataset originating from large-scale environmental monitoring. As part of a large citizen science project, IoT-based microclimate sensors were deployed for six months in 4400 gardens across the region of Flanders, generating 15-min recordings of temperature and soil moisture. Methods based on spatial recovery as well as time-based imputation were evaluated, including Spline Interpolation, MissForest, MICE, MCMC, M-RNN, BRITS, and others. The performance of these imputation methods was evaluated for different proportions of missing data (ranging from 10% to 50%), as well as a realistic missing value scenario. Techniques leveraging the spatial features of the data tend to outperform the time-based methods, with matrix completion techniques providing the best performance. Our results therefore provide a tool to maximize the benefit from costly, large-scale environmental monitoring efforts.

Patterns of tropical forest understory temperatures.

Temperature is a fundamental driver of species distribution and ecosystem functioning. Yet, our knowledge of the microclimatic conditions experienced by organisms inside tropical forests remains limited. This is because ecological studies often rely on coarse-gridded temperature estimates representing the conditions at 2 m height in an open-air environment (i.e., macroclimate). In this study, we present a high-resolution pantropical estimate of near-ground (15 cm above the surface) temperatures inside forests. We quantify diurnal and seasonal variability, thus revealing both spatial and temporal microclimate patterns. We find that on average, understory near-ground temperatures are 1.6 °C cooler than the open-air temperatures. The diurnal temperature range is on average 1.7 °C lower inside the forests, in comparison to open-air conditions. More importantly, we demonstrate a substantial spatial variability in the microclimate characteristics of tropical forests. This variability is regulated by a combination of large-scale climate conditions, vegetation structure and topography, and hence could not be captured by existing macroclimate grids. Our results thus contribute to quantifying the actual thermal ranges experienced by organisms inside tropical forests and provide new insights into how these limits may be affected by climate change and ecosystem disturbances.

Microclimate reveals the true thermal niche of forest plant species.

Species distributions are conventionally modelled using coarse-grained macroclimate data measured in open areas, potentially leading to biased predictions since most terrestrial species reside in the shade of trees. For forest plant species across Europe, we compared conventional macroclimate-based species distribution models (SDMs) with models corrected for forest microclimate buffering. We show that microclimate-based SDMs at high spatial resolution outperformed models using macroclimate and microclimate data at coarser resolution. Additionally, macroclimate-based models introduced a systematic bias in modelled species response curves, which could result in erroneous range shift predictions. Critically important for conservation science, these models were unable to identify warm and cold refugia at the range edges of species distributions. Our study emphasizes the crucial role of microclimate data when SDMs are used to gain insights into biodiversity conservation in the face of climate change, particularly given the growing policy and management focus on the conservation of refugia worldwide.

Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome.

Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. Here, we investigate whether past abundance changes, current range sizes and projected range shifts derived from species distribution models are related to plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation. We combined 17,921 trait records with observed past and modelled future distributions from 62 tundra shrub species across three continents. We found that species with greater variation in seed mass and specific leaf area had larger projected range shifts, and projected winner species had greater seed mass values. However, trait values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected ranges, nor to past abundance change. Overall, our findings indicate that abundance change and range shifts will not lead to directional modifications in shrub trait composition, since winner and loser species share relatively similar trait spaces.

ForestClim-Bioclimatic variables for microclimate temperatures of European forests.

Microclimate research gained renewed interest over the last decade and its importance for many ecological processes is increasingly being recognized. Consequently, the call for high-resolution microclimatic temperature grids across broad spatial extents is becoming more pressing to improve ecological models. Here, we provide a new set of open-access bioclimatic variables for microclimate temperatures of European forests at 25 × 25 m2 resolution.

Functional Niche Partitioning Occurs over Body Size but Not Nutrient Reserves nor Melanism in a Polar Carabid Beetle along an Altitudinal Gradient.

Phenotypic plasticity can favor the emergence of different morphotypes specialized in specific ranges of environmental conditions. The existence of intraspecific partitioning confers resilience at the species scale and can ultimately determine species survival in a context of global changes. Amblystogenium pacificum is a carabid beetle endemic to the sub-Antarctic Crozet Islands, and it has two distinctive morphotypes based on body coloration. For this study, A. pacificum specimens of functional niches were sampled along an altitudinal gradient (as a proxy for temperature), and some morphological and biochemical traits were measured. We used an FAMD multivariate analysis and linear mixed-effects models to test whether these traits were related to morphotype, altitude, and sexual dimorphism. We then calculated and compared the functional niches at different altitudes and tested for niche partitioning through a hypervolume approach. We found a positive hump-shaped correlation between altitude and body size as well as higher protein and sugar reserves in females than in males. Our functional hypervolume results suggest that the main driver of niche partitioning along the altitudinal gradient is body size rather than morphotype or sex, even though darker morphotypes tended to be more functionally constrained at higher altitudes and females showed limited trait variations at the highest altitude.

Rapid upwards spread of non-native plants in mountains across continents.

High-elevation ecosystems are among the few ecosystems worldwide that are not yet heavily invaded by non-native plants. This is expected to change as species expand their range limits upwards to fill their climatic niches and respond to ongoing anthropogenic disturbances. Yet, whether and how quickly these changes are happening has only been assessed in a few isolated cases. Starting in 2007, we conducted repeated surveys of non-native plant distributions along mountain roads in 11 regions from 5 continents. We show that over a 5- to 10-year period, the number of non-native species increased on average by approximately 16% per decade across regions. The direction and magnitude of upper range limit shifts depended on elevation across all regions. Supported by a null-model approach accounting for range changes expected by chance alone, we found greater than expected upward shifts at lower/mid elevations in at least seven regions. After accounting for elevation dependence, significant average upward shifts were detected in a further three regions (revealing evidence for upward shifts in 10 of 11 regions). Together, our results show that mountain environments are becoming increasingly exposed to biological invasions, emphasizing the need to monitor and prevent potential biosecurity issues emerging in high-elevation ecosystems.

Think globally, measure locally: The MIREN standardized protocol for monitoring plant species distributions along elevation gradients.

Climate change and other global change drivers threaten plant diversity in mountains worldwide. A widely documented response to such environmental modifications is for plant species to change their elevational ranges. Range shifts are often idiosyncratic and difficult to generalize, partly due to variation in sampling methods. There is thus a need for a standardized monitoring strategy that can be applied across mountain regions to assess distribution changes and community turnover of native and non-native plant species over space and time. Here, we present a conceptually intuitive and standardized protocol developed by the Mountain Invasion Research Network (MIREN) to systematically quantify global patterns of native and non-native species distributions along elevation gradients and shifts arising from interactive effects of climate change and human disturbance. Usually repeated every five years, surveys consist of 20 sample sites located at equal elevation increments along three replicate roads per sampling region. At each site, three plots extend from the side of a mountain road into surrounding natural vegetation. The protocol has been successfully used in 18 regions worldwide from 2007 to present. Analyses of one point in time already generated some salient results, and revealed region-specific elevational patterns of native plant species richness, but a globally consistent elevational decline in non-native species richness. Non-native plants were also more abundant directly adjacent to road edges, suggesting that disturbed roadsides serve as a vector for invasions into mountains. From the upcoming analyses of time series, even more exciting results can be expected, especially about range shifts. Implementing the protocol in more mountain regions globally would help to generate a more complete picture of how global change alters species distributions. This would inform conservation policy in mountain ecosystems, where some conservation policies remain poorly implemented.

Global maps of soil temperature.

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km2 resolution for 0-5 and 5-15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km2 pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (-0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications.

ForestTemp - Sub-canopy microclimate temperatures of European forests.

Ecological research heavily relies on coarse-gridded climate data based on standardized temperature measurements recorded at 2 m height in open landscapes. However, many organisms experience environmental conditions that differ substantially from those captured by these macroclimatic (i.e. free air) temperature grids. In forests, the tree canopy functions as a thermal insulator and buffers sub-canopy microclimatic conditions, thereby affecting biological and ecological processes. To improve the assessment of climatic conditions and climate-change-related impacts on forest-floor biodiversity and functioning, high-resolution temperature grids reflecting forest microclimates are thus urgently needed. Combining more than 1200 time series of in situ near-surface forest temperature with topographical, biological and macroclimatic variables in a machine learning model, we predicted the mean monthly offset between sub-canopy temperature at 15 cm above the surface and free-air temperature over the period 2000-2020 at a spatial resolution of 25 m across Europe. This offset was used to evaluate the difference between microclimate and macroclimate across space and seasons and finally enabled us to calculate mean annual and monthly temperatures for European forest understories. We found that sub-canopy air temperatures differ substantially from free-air temperatures, being on average 2.1°C (standard deviation ± 1.6°C) lower in summer and 2.0°C higher (±0.7°C) in winter across Europe. Additionally, our high-resolution maps expose considerable microclimatic variation within landscapes, not captured by the gridded macroclimatic products. The provided forest sub-canopy temperature maps will enable future research to model below-canopy biological processes and patterns, as well as species distributions more accurately.

Shielded environments reduce stress in alien Asteraceae species during hot and dry summers along urban-to-rural gradients.

Urban environments often host a greater abundance and diversity of alien plant species than rural areas. This is frequently linked to higher disturbance and propagule pressure, but could also be related to the additional establishment of species from warmer native ranges in cities, facilitated by the latter's higher air temperatures and drier soils. A hitherto unresolved question is how stressful the urban environments become during climate extremes such as heatwaves and droughts. Do such episodes still favor alien plant species, or set them back? We used in situ measured phenotypic leaf and development trait responses of the six most widespread alien Asteraceae species from various native climates along Belgian urban-to-rural gradients, measured during two unusually warm and dry summers. Urbanization was characterized by three factors: the percentage of artificially sealed surfaces (urbanity, measured at three spatial scales from in situ to satellite-based), the vegetation cover and the sky view factor (SVF, fraction of the hemisphere not blocked by buildings or vegetation). Across species, either from colder or warmer native climates, we found a predominant protective effect of shielded environments that block solar radiation (low SVF) along the entire urban-to-rural gradient. Such environments induced lower leaf anthocyanins and flavonols indices, indicating heat stress mitigation. Shielded environments also increased specific leaf area (SLA), a typical shade response. We found that vegetated areas had a secondary importance, increasing the chlorophyll content and decreasing the flavonols index, but these effects were not consistent across species. Finally, urbanity at the organism spatial scale decreased plant height, while broader-scale urbanity had no significant influence. Our results suggest that sealed surfaces constrain alien Asteraceae during unusually warm and dry summers, while shielded environments protect them, possibly canceling out the lack of light. These findings shed new light on alien plant species success along urban-to-rural gradients in a changing climate.

Forest microclimates and climate change: Importance, drivers and future research agenda.

Forest microclimates contrast strongly with the climate outside forests. To fully understand and better predict how forests' biodiversity and functions relate to climate and climate change, microclimates need to be integrated into ecological research. Despite the potentially broad impact of microclimates on the response of forest ecosystems to global change, our understanding of how microclimates within and below tree canopies modulate biotic responses to global change at the species, community and ecosystem level is still limited. Here, we review how spatial and temporal variation in forest microclimates result from an interplay of forest features, local water balance, topography and landscape composition. We first stress and exemplify the importance of considering forest microclimates to understand variation in biodiversity and ecosystem functions across forest landscapes. Next, we explain how macroclimate warming (of the free atmosphere) can affect microclimates, and vice versa, via interactions with land-use changes across different biomes. Finally, we perform a priority ranking of future research avenues at the interface of microclimate ecology and global change biology, with a specific focus on three key themes: (1) disentangling the abiotic and biotic drivers and feedbacks of forest microclimates; (2) global and regional mapping and predictions of forest microclimates; and (3) the impacts of microclimate on forest biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in the face of climate change. The availability of microclimatic data will significantly increase in the coming decades, characterizing climate variability at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales relevant to biological processes in forests. This will revolutionize our understanding of the dynamics, drivers and implications of forest microclimates on biodiversity and ecological functions, and the impacts of global changes. In order to support the sustainable use of forests and to secure their biodiversity and ecosystem services for future generations, microclimates cannot be ignored.

SoilTemp: A global database of near-surface temperature.

Current analyses and predictions of spatially explicit patterns and processes in ecology most often rely on climate data interpolated from standardized weather stations. This interpolated climate data represents long-term average thermal conditions at coarse spatial resolutions only. Hence, many climate-forcing factors that operate at fine spatiotemporal resolutions are overlooked. This is particularly important in relation to effects of observation height (e.g. vegetation, snow and soil characteristics) and in habitats varying in their exposure to radiation, moisture and wind (e.g. topography, radiative forcing or cold-air pooling). Since organisms living close to the ground relate more strongly to these microclimatic conditions than to free-air temperatures, microclimatic ground and near-surface data are needed to provide realistic forecasts of the fate of such organisms under anthropogenic climate change, as well as of the functioning of the ecosystems they live in. To fill this critical gap, we highlight a call for temperature time series submissions to SoilTemp, a geospatial database initiative compiling soil and near-surface temperature data from all over the world. Currently, this database contains time series from 7,538 temperature sensors from 51 countries across all key biomes. The database will pave the way toward an improved global understanding of microclimate and bridge the gap between the available climate data and the climate at fine spatiotemporal resolutions relevant to most organisms and ecosystem processes.

A framework to bridge scales in distribution modeling of soil microbiota.

Creating accurate habitat suitability and distribution models (HSDMs) for soil microbiota is far more challenging than for aboveground organism groups. In this perspective paper, we propose a conceptual framework that addresses several of the critical issues holding back further applications. Most importantly, we tackle the mismatch between the broadscale, long-term averages of environmental variables traditionally used, and the environment as experienced by soil microbiota themselves. We suggest using nested sampling designs across environmental gradients and objectively integrating spatially hierarchic heterogeneity as covariates in HSDMs. Second, to incorporate the crucial role of taxa co-occurrence as driver of soil microbial distributions, we promote the use of joint species distribution models, a class of models that jointly analyze multiple species' distributions, quantifying both species-specific environmental responses (i.e. the environmental niche) and covariance among species (i.e. biotic interactions). Our approach allows incorporating the environmental niche and its associated distribution across multiple spatial scales. The proposed framework facilitates the inclusion of the true relationships between soil organisms and their abiotic and biotic environments in distribution models, which is crucial to improve predictions of soil microbial redistributions as a result of global change.

Microclimatic conditions anywhere at any time!

Maclean (Glob. Change. Biol 10.1111/gcb.14876, 2019) presents the methods for providing fine-grained, hourly estimates of current and future microclimate over decadal timescales. In this commentary, we argue that this paper is the start of a paradigm shift, in which microclimate data will be available anywhere and at any time. Things will get even better for the future of spatial ecology if we combine the mechanistic models from Maclean with a global geo-database of in situ microclimatic measurements. This article is a commentary on Maclean, 26, 1003-1011.

Habitat properties and plant traits interact as drivers of non-native plant species' seed production at the local scale.

To answer the long-standing question if we can predict plant invader success based on characteristics of the environment (invasibility) or the invasive species (invasiveness), or the combination of both, there is a need for detailed observational studies in which habitat properties, non-native plant traits, and the resulting invader success are locally measured. In this study, we assess the interaction of gradients in the environmental and trait space on non-native species fitness, expressed as seed production, for a set of 10 invasive and noninvasive non-native species along a wide range of invaded sites in Flanders. In our multidimensional approach, most of the single environmental gradients (temperature, light availability, native plant species diversity, and soil fertility) and sets of non-native plant traits (plant size, photosynthesis, and foliar chemical attributes) related positively with invader seed production. Yet correlation with seed production was much stronger when several environmental gradients were assessed in interaction, and even more so when we combined plant traits and habitat properties. The latter increased explanatory power of the models on average by 25% for invasive and by 7% for noninvasive species. Additionally, we report a 70-fold higher seed production in invasive than in noninvasive species and fundamentally different correlations of seed production with plant traits and habitat properties in noninvasive versus invasive species. We conclude that locally measured traits and properties deserve much more attention than they currently get in invasion literature and thus encourage further studies combining this level of detail with the generality of a multiregion and multispecies approach across different stages of invasion.

Disturbance is the key to plant invasions in cold environments.

Until now, nonnative plant species were rarely found at high elevations and latitudes. However, partly because of climate warming, biological invasions are now on the rise in these extremely cold environments. These plant invasions make it timely to undertake a thorough experimental assessment of what has previously been holding them back. This knowledge is key to developing efficient management of the increasing risks of cold-climate invasions. Here, we integrate human interventions (i.e., disturbance, nutrient addition, and propagule input) and climatic factors (i.e., temperature) into one seed-addition experiment across two continents: the subantarctic Andes and subarctic Scandinavian mountains (Scandes), to disentangle their roles in limiting or favoring plant invasions. Disturbance was found as the main determinant of plant invader success (i.e., establishment, growth, and flowering) along the entire cold-climate gradient, explaining 40-60% of the total variance in our models, with no indication of any facilitative effect from the native vegetation. Higher nutrient levels additionally stimulated biomass production and flowering. Establishment and flowering displayed a hump-shaped response with increasing elevation, suggesting that competition is the main limit on invader success at low elevations, as opposed to low-growing-season temperatures at high elevations. Our experiment showed, however, that nonnative plants can establish, grow, and flower well above their current elevational limits in high-latitude mountains. We thus argue that cold-climate ecosystems are likely to see rapid increases in plant invasions in the near future as a result of a synergistic interaction between increasing human-mediated disturbances and climate warming.

Trade-off between competition and facilitation defines gap colonization in mountains.

Recent experimental observations show that gap colonization in small-stature (e.g. grassland and dwarf shrubs) vegetation strongly depends on the abiotic conditions within them. At the same time, within-gap variation in biotic interactions such as competition and facilitation, caused by distance to the gap edge, would affect colonizer performance, but a theoretical framework to explore such patterns is missing. Here, we model how competition, facilitation and environmental conditions together determine the small-scale patterns of gap colonization along a cold gradient in mountains, by simulating colonizer survival in gaps of various sizes. Our model adds another dimension to the known effects of biotic interactions along a stress gradient by focussing on the trade-off between competition and facilitation in the within-gap environment. We show that this trade-off defines a peak in colonizer survival at a specific distance from the gap edge, which progressively shifts closer to the edge as the environment gets colder, ultimately leaving a large fraction of gaps unsuitable for colonization in facilitation-dominated systems. This is reinforced when vegetation size and temperature amelioration are manipulated simultaneously with temperature in order to simulate an elevational gradient more realistically. Interestingly, all other conditions being equal, the magnitude of the realized survival peak was always lower in large than in small gaps, making large gaps harder to colonize. The model is relevant to predict effects of non-native plant invasions and climate warming on colonization processes in mountains.

Alien roadside species more easily invade alpine than lowland plant communities in a subarctic mountain ecosystem.

Effects of roads on plant communities are not well known in cold-climate mountain ecosystems, where road building and development are expected to increase in future decades. Knowledge of the sensitivity of mountain plant communities to disturbance by roads is however important for future conservation purposes. We investigate the effects of roads on species richness and composition, including the plant strategies that are most affected, along three elevational gradients in a subarctic mountain ecosystem. We also examine whether mountain roads promote the introduction and invasion of alien plant species from the lowlands to the alpine zone. Observations of plant community composition were made together with abiotic, biotic and anthropogenic factors in 60 T-shaped transects. Alpine plant communities reacted differently to road disturbances than their lowland counterparts. On high elevations, the roadside species composition was more similar to that of the local natural communities. Less competitive and ruderal species were present at high compared with lower elevation roadsides. While the effects of roads thus seem to be mitigated in the alpine environment for plant species in general, mountain plant communities are more invasible than lowland communities. More precisely, relatively more alien species present in the roadside were found to invade into the surrounding natural community at high compared to low elevations. We conclude that effects of roads and introduction of alien species in lowlands cannot simply be extrapolated to the alpine and subarctic environment.