RESUMO
Importance: Mortality prediction among critically ill patients in resource limited settings is difficult. Identifying the best mortality prediction tool is important for counseling patients and families, benchmarking quality improvement efforts, and defining severity of illness for clinical research studies. Objective: Compare predictive capacity of the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), Universal Vital Assessment (UVA), Tropical Intensive Care Score (TropICS), Rwanda Mortality Probability Model (R-MPM), and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) for hospital mortality among adults admitted to a medical-surgical intensive care unit (ICU) in rural Kenya. We performed a pre-planned subgroup analysis among ICU patients with suspected infection. Design setting and participants: Prospective single-center cohort study at a tertiary care, academic hospital in Kenya. All adults 18 years and older admitted to the ICU January 2018-June 2019 were included. Main outcomes and measures: The primary outcome was association of clinical prediction tool score with hospital mortality, as defined by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Demographic, physiologic, laboratory, therapeutic, and mortality data were collected. 338 patients were included, none were excluded. Median age was 42 years (IQR 33-62) and 61% (n = 207) were male. Fifty-nine percent (n = 199) required mechanical ventilation and 35% (n = 118) received vasopressors upon ICU admission. Overall hospital mortality was 31% (n = 104). 323 patients had all component variables recorded for R-MPM, 261 for MEWS, and 253 for UVA. The AUROC was highest for MEWS (0.76), followed by R-MPM (0.75), qSOFA (0.70), and UVA (0.69) (p < 0.001). Predictive capacity was similar among patients with suspected infection. Conclusion and relevance: All tools had acceptable predictive capacity for hospital mortality, with variable observed availability of the component data. R-MPM and MEWS had high rates of variable availability as well as good AUROC, suggesting these tools may prove useful in low resource ICUs.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Kenya's neonatal mortality rate remains unacceptably high, at 22 deaths per 1000 live births, with a third of those attributable to prematurity. Respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) is the single most important cause of morbidity and mortality in the premature neonate. Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) is a proven modality of therapy but is rarely used in low-resource settings. We report on the introduction of bubble CPAP (BCPAP), a low-cost method of delivering CPAP appropriate to our setting, by comparing survival-to-discharge before and after the technology was introduced. METHODS: The inpatient hospital records of all preterm infants (<37 weeks) diagnosed with RDS in the AIC Kijabe Hospital Nursery during two 18-month periods before and after the introduction of BCPAP (46 infants enrolled from 1 November 2007 to 30 April 2009 vs. 72 infants enrolled from 1 November 2009 to 30 April 2011) were reviewed. Differences in survival-to-discharge rates between the two time periods were analyzed. RESULTS: The survival-to-discharge rate was higher in Period 2 (after the introduction of BCPAP) than in Period 1 (pre-BCPAP) (85% vs. 61%, p = 0.007). Similarly, there were lower referral rates of preterm infants with RDS in Period 2 than Period 1 (4% vs. 17%, p = 0.037). CONCLUSION: BCPAP has contributed significantly to favorable outcomes for preterm infants with RDS at AIC Kijabe Hospital. The use of this simple technology should be considered and studied for expansion to all hospitals in Kenya that care for preterm infants.
