Multiplex dependence analysis of China's interprovincial virtual water based on an ecological network.

The interprovincial circulation of goods and services has formed virtual water flows between regions, which can redistribute water resources. Based on previous virtual water trade research, this study further explored the multiple dependencies of virtual water, i.e., direct, indirect, and complete dependence. This study examined the direct, indirect, and complete dependence of virtual water between provinces in China by constructing multilayer dependence networks and identified the key regions and paths of virtual water trade network. The results showed direct dependence was the densest and had the largest overall dependence degree, but indirect dependence was the most stable and orderly. Second, the dominant provinces were Guangxi, Hunan, Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Anhui, referred to as "core‒five‒region," and the flow relevant to them accounted for approximately 30% of the virtual water. The seven provinces of Shanxi, Zhejiang, Shandong, Hubei, Guangdong, Shaanxi, and Gansu depend both directly and indirectly on the "core‒five‒region." Shanxi and Zhejiang have close direct and indirect dependence, with more than one of the "core‒five‒region." Guangdong was the province with the most direct and indirect input of virtual water from the "core‒five‒region." The study provides a scientific basis for multiregional identification for the collaborative management of water resources in China from the perspective of dependence.

Evaluating the Structural Robustness of Large-Scale Emerging Industry with Blurring Boundaries.

The present large-scale emerging industry evolves into a form of an open system with blurring boundaries. However, when complex structures with numerous nodes and connections encounter an open system with blurring boundaries, it becomes much more challenging to effectively depict the structure of an emerging industry, which is the precondition for robustness evaluation. Therefore, this study proposes a novel framework based on a data-driven percolation process and complex network theory to depict the network skeleton and thus evaluate the structural robustness of large-scale emerging industries. The empirical data we used are actual firm-level transaction data in the Chinese new energy vehicle industry in 2019, 2020, and 2021. We applied our method to explore the transformation of structural robustness in the Chinese new energy vehicle industry in pre-COVID (2019), under-COVID (2020), and post-COVID (2021) eras. We unveil that the Chinese new energy vehicle industry became more robust against random attacks in the post-COVID era than in pre-COVID.

Assessing China's potential for reducing primary copper demand and associated environmental impacts in the context of energy transition and "Zero waste" policies.

To conserve resources and enhance the environmental performance, China has launched the "Zero waste" concept, focused on reutilization of solid waste and recovery of materials, including copper. Although several studies have assessed the copper demand and recycling, there is a lack of understanding on how different waste management options would potentially reduce primary copper demand and associated environmental impacts in China in the context of energy transition. This study addresses this gap in view of a transition to low-carbon energy system and the optimization of copper waste management combining MFA and LCA approaches. Six types of waste streams (C&DW, ELV, WEEE, IEW, MSW, ICW) are investigated in relation to various "Zero waste" strategies including reduction, reuse (repair, remanufacturing or refurbishment), recycling and transition from informal to formal waste management. Under present Chinese policies, reuse and recycling of copper containing products will lead to a somewhat lower dependency on primary copper in 2100 (11187Gg), as well as lower total GHG emissions (64869 Gg CO2-eq.) and cumulative energy demand (1.18x10^12 MJ). Maximizing such "Zero waste" options may lead to a further reduction, resulting in 65% potential reduction of primary copper demand, around 55% potential reduction of total GHG emissions and total cumulative energy demand in 2100. Several policy actions are proposed to provide insights into future waste management in China as well as some of the challenges involved.

The optimal industrial carbon tax for China under carbon intensity constraints: a dynamic input-output optimization model.

To reduce carbon emissions, the Chinese government is considering introducing a differentiated industrial carbon tax on enterprises outside the carbon trading market in the future. An efficient carbon tax must consider not only how carbon taxes impact the current economy but also how the size of the tax should be adjusted across time due to external changes. To calculate the optimal industrial carbon tax for China which is subject to certain constraints, this paper investigates the economic and environmental effects of four possible industrial carbon tax rate models under carbon intensity constraints from 2021 to 2030 by a dynamic input-output optimization model. The results show that the dynamic tax rate model leads to larger fluctuations in GDP growth than the other tax models, with a low initial tax rate in the beginning and a high tax rate exceeding ¥180/t in 2030. Second, a large quantity of capital stock is distributed across the energy-intensive industries, which leads the existing capital investment structure to be path-dependent. This offsets the performance of carbon taxes. Third, indirect energy-intensive industries such as construction and transport are insensitive to the industrial carbon tax. Finally, comparing the impacts of the four tax rate models, the optimal industrial carbon tax for China is found to be a fixed differentiated tax rate, in which energy-intensive sectors are taxed ¥75/t and low-carbon sectors are taxed ¥50/t.

Heterogeneity of influential factors across the entire air quality spectrum in Chinese cities: A spatial quantile regression analysis.

Most of the previous researches estimate influencing factors impact on air quality average without considering the heterogeneity of influential factors on different levels of air quality. In order to detect the different effects of influencing factors on air quality index (AQI) between lower-AQI and higher-AQI cities, this study applies a spatial quantile regression model (SQRM) to investigate heterogeneity of influential factors on AQI, while accounting for spatial autocorrelation of AQI. The results show that heterogeneity effects of windspeed, terrain slope, urbanization sprawl and spatial autocorrelation on AQI are large across the entire AQI spectrum, while heterogeneity effects of precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, terrain fluctuation and urbanization intensity on AQI are not obvious. The spatial positive autocorrelation of AQI in higher-AQI cities is greater than that in lower-AQI cities. Compared with higher-AQI cities, the negative impact of terrain slope on AQI is lager in lower-AQI cities. One unit increase in wind speed contributes AQI to decrease 9.31 to 5.64 then to 5.39 for lower, medium and higher-AQI cities. One unit increase in urbanization sprawl would lead AQI increase 25.6 to 15.6 then to 10.5 for lower, medium and higher-AQI cities. The heterogeneity analysis of meteorological, topographic and socioeconomic factors effects on air quality are of guiding significance for realizing the differentiation of policy measures for air pollution prevention and control.

What Induces the Energy-Water Nexus in China's Supply Chains?

Given energy and water scarcity, it is necessary to develop an in-depth understanding of the energy-water nexus in China for its sustainable development. Previous studies have focused on nexus accounting, synergy conservation, and system optimization, but its induction mechanism along the supply chains has not been uncovered. This paper proposes a top-down structural path analysis (SPA) and combines it with an environmental input-output model (EIOM) to identify the critical final demand, consumption sectors, and supply chain paths inducing the energy-water nexus. The results show that the largest final demand of water for energy production (WFE) is capital formation, while the largest final demand of energy for water supply (EFW) is urban consumption. The distribution of WFE at different production layers shows an inverted U shape. Most WFE is indirectly consumed by other sectors, such as construction, through three-step supply chain paths. In contrast, the distribution of EFW shows a L shape, and most EFW is directly consumed by the final demand. In addition, some critical supply chain paths inducing more WFE and EFW are identified. Finally, some policies targeting the energy-water nexus management are proposed, which are conducive to resource conservation and the sustainable supply of energy and water.

Structural analysis of indirect carbon emissions embodied in intermediate input between Chinese sectors: a complex network approach.

The indirect carbon emission embodied in the intermediate input is also an important indicator of assessing a producer's carbon emissions. Structural analysis of indirect carbon emissions is helpful to understand the responsibilities between producers and pay efforts to key areas. The aim of this study is to analyze indirect carbon emissions embodied in intermediate input between sectors and explore the distribution structure of indirect carbon emissions flow network (namely, ICEFN). Based on the modified input-output model and complex network theory, this study constructed four directed and weighted ICEFNs with 28 sectors from 1997 to 2012. The results show that indirect carbon emissions between sectors are significantly higher than direct carbon emissions, accounting for nearly 70% of the total carbon emissions of China. Second, we analyzed the embodied carbon emission intensity (namely, ECI) of each sector. Although the ECI has been decreasing over time, the decrease has increasingly diminished, which indicates that the additional carbon emission reductions are more difficult. Third, we identified the key sectors which play different roles in the ICEFNs. Meanwhile, we studied the key paths which show more closed relationships between some sectors in ICEFNs. Finally, based on the above analysis, we made policy recommendations.

Analysis of influential factors on air quality from global and local perspectives in China.

Regional haze pollution has frequently occurred in China over the past several years, and this haze has hindered the development of the economy and harmed the health of people in China. Currently, several studies have analyzed the impact of different influencing factors on haze. However, few studies have comprehensively analyzed the influential factors of haze from different perspectives. In this paper, we utilized global and local regression models to explore the main influential factors on air quality index (AQI) in China from global and local perspectives. The results are as follows: (1) the AQIs of Chinese cities have significant positive spatial correlation, and higher values of AQI were typically found in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Shanxi and Shaanxi Province; (2) from a global perspective, as there is one unit of increase in the average AQI of one city's neighbors, the city's AQI will increase by 0.827 unit. An increase in the industrial structures and the number of civilian vehicles will also lead to an increase in the AQI, but the impact of precipitation is reversed; and (3) from a local perspective, there are spatial differences in the effects of different factors on the AQI. In northern China, an appropriate temperature reduction and an appropriate increase in atmospheric pressure is helpful for reducing haze pollution; however, opposing conditions are found in southern China. Compared with China's coastal cities, the increase in precipitation is more effective at reducing the AQI in inland cities. Compared with other cities, reducing the industrial structure and the number of civilian vehicles was more effective for haze management in Beijing, Tianjin, Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, and Shaanxi provinces. These results of this paper are helpful for government departments to formulate regionally differentiated governance policies regarding haze.

Analysis of the transmission characteristics of China's carbon market transaction price volatility from the perspective of a complex network.

Research on the price fluctuation transmission of the carbon trading pilot market is of great significance for the establishment of China's unified carbon market and its development in the future. In this paper, the carbon market transaction prices of Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Shenzhen, and Guangdong were selected from December 29, 2013 to March 26, 2016, as sample data. Based on the view of the complex network theory, we construct a price fluctuation transmission network model of five pilot carbon markets in China, with the purposes of analyzing the topological features of this network, including point intensity, weighted clustering coefficient, betweenness centrality, and community structure, and elucidating the characteristics and transmission mechanism of price fluctuation in China's five pilot cities. The results of point intensity and weighted clustering coefficient show that the carbon prices in the five markets remained unchanged and transmitted smoothly in general, and price fragmentation is serious; however, at some point, the price fluctuates with mass phenomena. The result of betweenness centrality reflects that a small number of price fluctuations can control the whole market carbon price transmission and price fluctuation evolves in an alternate manner. The study provides direction for the scientific management of the carbon price. Policy makers should take a positive role in promoting market activity, preventing the risks that may arise from mass trade and scientifically forecasting the volatility of trading prices, which will provide experience for the establishment of a unified carbon market in China.

Reconstructing complex network for characterizing the time-varying causality evolution behavior of multivariate time series.

In order to explore the characteristics of the evolution behavior of the time-varying relationships between multivariate time series, this paper proposes an algorithm to transfer this evolution process to a complex network. We take the causality patterns as nodes and the succeeding sequence relations between patterns as edges. We used four time series as sample data. The results of the analysis reveal some statistical evidences that the causalities between time series is in a dynamic process. It implicates that stationary long-term causalities are not suitable for some special situations. Some short-term causalities that our model recognized can be referenced to the dynamic adjustment of the decisions. The results also show that weighted degree of the nodes obeys power law distribution. This implies that a few types of causality patterns play a major role in the process of the transition and that international crude oil market is statistically significantly not random. The clustering effect appears in the transition process and different clusters have different transition characteristics which provide probability information for predicting the evolution of the causality. The approach presents a potential to analyze multivariate time series and provides important information for investors and decision makers.

Sentiment Diffusion of Public Opinions about Hot Events: Based on Complex Network.

To study the sentiment diffusion of online public opinions about hot events, we collected people's posts through web data mining techniques. We calculated the sentiment value of each post based on a sentiment dictionary. Next, we divided those posts into five different orientations of sentiments: strongly positive (P), weakly positive (p), neutral (o), weakly negative (n), and strongly negative (N). These sentiments are combined into modes through coarse graining. We constructed sentiment mode complex network of online public opinions (SMCOP) with modes as nodes and the conversion relation in chronological order between different types of modes as edges. We calculated the strength, k-plex clique, clustering coefficient and betweenness centrality of the SMCOP. The results show that the strength distribution obeys power law. Most posts' sentiments are weakly positive and neutral, whereas few are strongly negative. There are weakly positive subgroups and neutral subgroups with ppppp and ooooo as the core mode, respectively. Few modes have larger betweenness centrality values and most modes convert to each other with these higher betweenness centrality modes as mediums. Therefore, the relevant person or institutes can take measures to lead people's sentiments regarding online hot events according to the sentiment diffusion mechanism.

Words analysis of online Chinese news headlines about trending events: a complex network perspective.

Because the volume of information available online is growing at breakneck speed, keeping up with meaning and information communicated by the media and netizens is a new challenge both for scholars and for companies who must address public relations crises. Most current theories and tools are directed at identifying one website or one piece of online news and do not attempt to develop a rapid understanding of all websites and all news covering one topic. This paper represents an effort to integrate statistics, word segmentation, complex networks and visualization to analyze headlines' keywords and words relationships in online Chinese news using two samples: the 2011 Bohai Bay oil spill and the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill. We gathered all the news headlines concerning the two trending events in the search results from Baidu, the most popular Chinese search engine. We used Simple Chinese Word Segmentation to segment all the headlines into words and then took words as nodes and considered adjacent relations as edges to construct word networks both using the whole sample and at the monthly level. Finally, we develop an integrated mechanism to analyze the features of words' networks based on news headlines that can account for all the keywords in the news about a particular event and therefore track the evolution of news deeply and rapidly.

Characteristics of the transmission of autoregressive sub-patterns in financial time series.

There are many types of autoregressive patterns in financial time series, and they form a transmission process. Here, we define autoregressive patterns quantitatively through an econometrical regression model. We present a computational algorithm that sets the autoregressive patterns as nodes and transmissions between patterns as edges, and then converts the transmission process of autoregressive patterns in a time series into a network. We utilised daily Shanghai (securities) composite index time series to study the transmission characteristics of autoregressive patterns. We found statistically significant evidence that the financial market is not random and that there are similar characteristics between parts and whole time series. A few types of autoregressive sub-patterns and transmission patterns drive the oscillations of the financial market. A clustering effect on fluctuations appears in the transmission process, and certain non-major autoregressive sub-patterns have high media capabilities in the financial time series. Different stock indexes exhibit similar characteristics in the transmission of fluctuation information. This work not only proposes a distinctive perspective for analysing financial time series but also provides important information for investors.

Transmission of linear regression patterns between time series: from relationship in time series to complex networks.

The linear regression parameters between two time series can be different under different lengths of observation period. If we study the whole period by the sliding window of a short period, the change of the linear regression parameters is a process of dynamic transmission over time. We tackle fundamental research that presents a simple and efficient computational scheme: a linear regression patterns transmission algorithm, which transforms linear regression patterns into directed and weighted networks. The linear regression patterns (nodes) are defined by the combination of intervals of the linear regression parameters and the results of the significance testing under different sizes of the sliding window. The transmissions between adjacent patterns are defined as edges, and the weights of the edges are the frequency of the transmissions. The major patterns, the distance, and the medium in the process of the transmission can be captured. The statistical results of weighted out-degree and betweenness centrality are mapped on timelines, which shows the features of the distribution of the results. Many measurements in different areas that involve two related time series variables could take advantage of this algorithm to characterize the dynamic relationships between the time series from a new perspective.