Impact of Extreme Weather Disasters on China's Barley Industry under the Background of Trade Friction-Based on the Partial Equilibrium Model.

The world has entered a compound risk era with multiple crises, and the adverse impact of trade friction and extreme weather disasters on China's barley import has become increasingly prominent. In this context, this study uses superimposed epoch analysis and partial equilibrium model to evaluate the impact of extreme weather disasters in China's major barley-exporting countries on China's barley industry in the course of China-Australia trade friction. The results show that: (1) extreme weather disaster caused barley production in France and Canada to decrease by 7.95% and 18.36% respectively; (2) when the two external shocks occur at the same time, China's barley import volume tends to decline compared with the basic scenario, the import price rises sharply, there are certain trade-diverting effects in barley import, and China's imports from countries not affected by extreme weather disasters will increase to a certain extent; (3) China's barley production remains at a low rate of growth and is vulnerable to external shocks, facing certain import risks. This study provides important policy implications for preventing import risks and ensuring the sufficient supply of domestic barley.

Projections of the economic burden of care for individuals with dementia in mainland China from 2010 to 2050.

BACKGROUND: China has stepped into an era of aging society, where the impending considerable economic burden attributed to high prevalence of dementia in the elderly appears to be one of the most important health and social issues to deal with for the country. However, population-based quantification and projections for the economic burden of dementia in China are lacking for further health action and policy making. OBJECTIVE: To estimate and predict the costs of managing dementia in the elderly population aged 60 and above from 2010 to 2050 in China. METHODS: Data were collected from a six-province study (n = 7072) and other multiple sources for calculation of the economic burden of dementia. With the convincing data from published studies, we quantified and projected the costs attributed to dementia in China from 2010 to 2050. RESULTS: The national cost of dementia in 2010 was estimated to be US$22.8 billion by the opportunity cost method and US$26.4 billion by the proxy method. In 2050, the costs would increase to US$372.3 billion by the opportunity cost method and US$430.6 billion by the proxy method, consuming 0.53% and 0.61% of China's total GDP, respectively. A series of sensitivity analyses showed that the changes in the proportions of informal caregiving led to the most robust changes in the total burden of care for dementia in China. CONCLUSION: Dementia represents an enormous burden on China's population health and economy. Due to the changes in policies and population structure, policymakers should give priority to dementia care.

Transmission center and driving factors of hand, foot, and mouth disease in China: A combined analysis.

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has become a major public health issue in China. The disease incidence varies substantially over time and across space. To understand the heterogeneity of HFMD transmission, we compare the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFMD in Qinghai and Shanghai by conducting combined analysis of epidemiological, wavelet time series, and mathematical methods to county-level data from 2009 to 2016. We observe hierarchical epidemic waves in Qinghai, emanating from Huangzhong and in Shanghai from Fengxian. Besides population, we also find that the traveling waves are significantly associated with socio-economic and geographical factors. The population mobility also varies between the two regions: long-distance movement in Qinghai and between-neighbor commuting in Shanghai. Our findings provide important evidence for characterizing the heterogeneity of HFMD transmission and for the design and implementation of interventions, such as deploying optimal vaccine and changing local driving factors in the transmission center, to prevent or limit disease spread in these areas.