Glycated haemoglobin trajectories and one-year risk of potentially avoidable hospitalisations among adult patients with type 2 diabetes from specialist outpatient clinics of a tertiary hospital: A cohort study.

AIM: To evaluate the association between trajectories of glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and potentially avoidable hospitalisations (PAH). METHODS: We performed a cohort study in a tertiary hospital in Singapore among adult type 2 diabetes patients with ≥ 3 HbA1c tests over two years. Then, we followed up for one year after the last HbA1c reading to determine the PAH outcome. Glycaemic control was analysed by (1) HbA1c trajectories through group-based trajectory modelling, and (2) mean HbA1c. PAH was defined using the Agency of Healthcare Research and Quality criteria, categorising as overall, diabetes, acute, and chronic-composites. RESULTS: A total of 14,923 patients (mean age: 62.9 ± 12.8 years; 55.2% men) were included. Four HbA1c trajectories were observed; low-stable (n = 9854, 66.0%), moderate-stable (n = 3125, 20.9%), high-decrease (n = 1017, 6.8%) and high-persistent (n = 927, 6.2%). Compared to the low-stable trajectory, one-year risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI), respectively for moderate-stable, high-decrease and high-persistent trajectories were as follows: (1) overall PAH: 1.15 (1.00-1.31), 1.53 (1.31-1.80), 1.96 (1.58-2.43); (2) diabetes PAH: 1.30 (1.04-1.64), 1.98 (1.55-2.53), 2.24 (1.59-3.15); (3) acute PAH: 1.14 (0.90-1.44), 1.29 (0.95-1.77), 1.75 (1.17-2.62); and (4) chronic PAH: 1.21 (1.02-1.43), 1.62 (1.34-1.97), 2.14 (1.67-2.75). Mean HbA1c was significantly associated with overall and chronic-composites of PAH whilst evidence of a non-linear relationship with diabetes-composite of PAH was noted. CONCLUSION: Patients with high-decrease trajectory had a risk lower than those with persistently-high HbA1c, highlighting that a greater risk of hospitalisation conferred by poor glycaemic control is potentially reversible. Determining HbA1c trajectories could help to identify the high-risk individuals for targeted and intensive management to improve care and reduce hospitalisations.

DYNAMIC cohort study evaluating metabolic predictors of influenza vaccine immune response in older adults.

Immunosenescence (age-related immune dysfunction) and inflamm-aging contribute to suboptimal immune responses in older adults to standard-dose influenza vaccines, which may be exacerbated in those with metabolic co-morbidities. We sought to investigate metabolic factors/predictors of influenza vaccine immune response in an older adult (age ≥65 years) cohort in Singapore, where influenza typically circulates year-round. The primary outcome for the DYNAMIC prospective cohort study was haemagglutination-inhibition titer (HAI) response to each of the trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine strains at day 28 (D28) compared to baseline (D0), as assessed by seroconversion and D28/D0 log2 HAI fold rise. Baseline blood samples were tested for total Vitamin D (25-(OH) D) levels. We enrolled 234 participants in June-Dec 2017. Two hundred twenty completed all study visits. The median age was 71 [IQR 68-75] years, 67 (30.5%) had diabetes mellitus (DM), and the median BMI was 24.9 [IQR 22.2-27.8] kg/m2. Median baseline totals 25-(OH) D was 29 [IQR: 21-29] ng/ml. Age, DM, obesity, and baseline 25-(OH) D were not associated with HAI fold rise in multivariable analysis. More recent prior influenza vaccination and higher baseline HAI titers were associated with lower HAI fold rise for influenza A/HK/H3N2. Physical activity was associated with a higher HAI fold rise for influenza A/HK/H3N2 in a dose-response relationship (p-test for trend = 0.015). Older adults with well-controlled metabolic co-morbidities retain HAI response to the influenza vaccine, and physical activity had a beneficial effect on immune response, particularly for influenza A/HK/H3N2.

Functional improvement after inpatient rehabilitation in community hospitals following acute hospital care.

INTRODUCTION: There are limited studies exploring functional improvement in relation to characteristics of patients who, following acute hospital care, receive inpatient rehabilitation in community hospitals. We evaluated the association of acute hospital admission-related factors with functional improvement on community hospital discharge. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among patients who were transferred to community hospitals within 14-day post-discharge from acute hospital between 2016 and 2018. Modified Barthel Index (MBI) on a 100-point ordinal scale was used to assess functional status on admission to and discharge from the community hospital. We categorised MBI into 6 bands: 0-24, 25-49, 50-74, 75-90, 91-99 and 100. Multivariable logistic regression models were constructed to determine factors associated with categorical improvement in functional status, defined as an increase in at least one MBI band between admission and discharge. RESULTS: A total of 5,641 patients (median age 77 years, interquartile range 69-84; 44.2% men) were included for analysis. After adjusting for potential confounders, factors associated with functional improvement were younger age, a higher MBI on admission, and musculoskeletal diagnosis for the acute hospital admission episode. In contrast, a history of dementia or stroke; lower estimated glomerular filtration rate; abnormal serum albumin or anaemia measured during the acute hospital episode; and diagnoses of stroke, cardiac disease, malignancy, falls or pneumonia; and other chronic respiratory diseases were associated with lower odds of functional improvement. CONCLUSION: Clinicians may want to take into account the presence of these high-risk factors in their patients when planning rehabilitation programmes, in order to maximise the likelihood of functional improvement.

Classic myeloproliferative neoplasms in Singapore: A population-based study on incidence, trends, and survival from 1968 to 2017.

BACKGROUND: Current descriptive epidemiological information on classic myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) is incomplete. Published data among Asian population are particularly sparse. METHODS: We conducted a large population-based study to determine the incidence rates and survival patterns of MPN reported to the Singapore Cancer Registry during the period 1968-2017. Age-standardised incidence rates(ASR), overall survival, 5-/10-year relative survival ratio (RSR) were estimated. Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate quinquennial percent change (QPC) in incidence. RESULTS: We identified 2557 individuals diagnosed with MPN including 1031 chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML), 424 polycythaemia vera (PV), 389 essential thrombocythaemia (ET), 134 primary myelofibrosis (PMF) and 579 MPN unclassifiable (MPN-U). The overall respective ASRs per 100,000 for CML, PV, ET, PMF and MPN-U were 1.24, 1.15, 1.07, 0.43, and 0.80 in 2013-2017. Males had higher ASR than females in all MPNs. A gradual rise in incidence trends of CML was observed between 1968 and 2017 (QPC 2.1%, 95% CI -0.9, 5.3). The overall incidence trends of non-CML MPNs including PV (QPC 62.9%, 95% CI 19.3, 122.6), ET (QPC 54.2%, 95% CI 23.5, 92.3) and PMF (QPC 103.5%, 95% CI 19.1, 247.6) increased sharply during 1993-2017. Survival was lower in MPNs compared with expected survival in general population: 5-year RSRs were 0.82 (95% CI 0.78, 0.86), 0.96 (95% CI 0.91, 1.01), 0.96 (95% CI 0.92, 1.01), 0.53 (95% CI 0.43, 0.65), and 0.74 (95% CI 0.68, 0.80) for CML, PV, ET, PMF and MPN-U respectively. CONCLUSION: CML incidence has increased marginally, whereas non-CML MPNs incidences have sharply increased. MPN patients have a lower relative survival compared to the general population, and patients with PV and ET have the most favourable relative survival. Median survival for CML patients has increased dramatically over the last 50 years.

Risk prediction models to guide antibiotic prescribing: a study on adult patients with uncomplicated upper respiratory tract infections in an emergency department.

BACKGROUND: Appropriate antibiotic prescribing is key to combating antimicrobial resistance. Upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) are common reasons for emergency department (ED) visits and antibiotic use. Differentiating between bacterial and viral infections is not straightforward. We aim to provide an evidence-based clinical decision support tool for antibiotic prescribing using prediction models developed from local data. METHODS: Seven hundred-fifteen patients with uncomplicated URTI were recruited and analysed from Singapore's busiest ED, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, from June 2016 to November 2018. Confirmatory tests were performed using the multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test for respiratory viruses and point-of-care test for C-reactive protein. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were extracted from the hospital electronic medical records. Seventy percent of the data was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for validation. Decision trees, LASSO and logistic regression models were built to predict when antibiotics were not needed. RESULTS: The median age of the cohort was 36 years old, with 61.2% being male. Temperature and pulse rate were significant factors in all 3 models. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) on the validation set for the models were similar. (LASSO: 0.70 [95% CI: 0.62-0.77], logistic regression: 0.72 [95% CI: 0.65-0.79], decision tree: 0.67 [95% CI: 0.59-0.74]). Combining the results from all models, 58.3% of study participants would not need antibiotics. CONCLUSION: The models can be easily deployed as a decision support tool to guide antibiotic prescribing in busy EDs.

Human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 positive rates in invasive lobular breast carcinoma: The Singapore experience.

BACKGROUND: Invasive lobular carcinomas (ILC) form 5%-10% of breast cancer and rarely show overexpression of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2). AIM: To describe the prevalence and prognostic factors of HER2 positive (HER2+) ILC in an Asian population. METHODS: A retrospective review of patients with ILC seen between January 1985 and March 2018 at various SingHealth medical institutions was conducted. Demographic and clinical data were collected from medical records. We examined clinicopathological characteristics and survival in relation to HER2 status. RESULTS: A total of 864 patients were included. Prevalence of HER2 positivity was 10.1% (87 patients). Compared with HER2 negative (HER2-) ILC, HER2+ ILC was associated with a higher proportion of estrogen receptor negative (24.4% vs 5.9%, P < 0.001), progesterone receptor negative (PR-) (40.2% vs 24%, P = 0.002) and grade 3 tumours (Grade 3, 29.0% vs 10.2%, P < 0.001). Overall survival rate was poorer in patients with HER2+ compared to HER2- ILC (56.7% vs 72.9% alive at 10 years; hazard ratio 1.87, 95% confidence interval: 1.21-2.90, P = 0.004). Based on multivariate analysis, negative prognostic factors for overall survival included HER2 positivity, PR negativity, older age, Indian ethnicity and higher tumour stage. CONCLUSION: Prevalence of HER2+ ILC was 10.1%. HER2+ ILC was more likely to have poorer prognostic features such as estrogen receptor negative, PR- and higher tumour grade, and have a poorer survival.

Duration-dependent margins for prostate radiotherapy-a practical motion mitigation strategy.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The magnitude of intra-fractional prostate displacement (change from initial position over time) is associated with the duration of the patient lying on the radiotherapy treatment couch. This study reports a minute-by-minute association and calculates the impact of this displacement on duration-dependent margins using real-time intra-fractional position data monitored by four-dimensional transperineal ultrasound (4D TPUS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 55 patients were recruited prospectively. Intra-fractional position of the prostate was monitored in real-time using a 4D TPUS Clarity® system. A total of 1745 monitoring sessions were analysed. Van Herk's margin recipe (2.5∑ + 1.64((σ2 + σp2)1/2 - σp)) was used to estimate the duration-dependant margins for every minute, up to the 15th minute. Linear regression analysis was then performed on the overall margins against time and direction. RESULTS: The mean intra-fractional position was 0.76 mm Inferior (Inf), 0 mm Lateral (Lat) and 0.94 mm Posterior (Post) at the 15th minute. A minimum margin expansion of 2.42 mm (Superior/Inf), 1.02 mm (Left/Right) and 2.65 mm (Anterior/Post) was required for an 8­minute treatment compared to 4.29 mm (Sup/Inf), 1.84 mm (Lt/Rt) and 4.63 mm (Ant/Post) for a 15-minute treatment. The required margin expansion increased linearly (R2 = 0.99) in all directions (p < 0.01). However, while there was no statistically significant difference (p = 0.10) in the required margin expansion in the Sup/Inf and Ant/Post directions respective of the time duration, the margins were much bigger compared to those in the Lt/Rt direction (p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: We report our experience in deriving the minimum duration-dependant margin to generate the required planning target volume for prostate radiotherapy. The required margin increases linearly in all directions within the 15-min duration; thus, the margin will depend on the duration of the technique chosen (IMRT/VMAT/3DCRT/proton).

Validation of a Risk Score Incorporating Tumor Characteristics into the American Joint Committee on Cancer Anatomic Stage for Breast Cancer.

PURPOSE: The American Joint Committee on Cancer 8th edition (AJCC8) prognostic stage (PS) was implemented January 1, 2018, but it is complex due to multiple permutations. A North American group proposed a simpler system using the anatomic stage with a risk score system (RSS) of 1 point each for grade 3 tumor and human epithelial growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) and estrogen receptor (ER) negativity. Here we aimed to evaluate this risk score system with our database of Asian breast cancer patients and compare it against the AJCC8 PS. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with breast cancer stage I-IV in 2006-2012 were identified in the SingHealth Joint Breast Cancer Registry. Five-year breast cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) were calculated for each anatomic stage according to the risk score and compared with the AJCC8 PS. RESULTS: A total of 6,656 patients were analyzed. The median follow-up was 61 (interquartile range, 37-90) months. There was a high receipt of endocrine therapy (84.6% of ER+ patients), chemotherapy (84.3% of node-positive patients), and trastuzumab (86.0% of HER2+ patients). Within each anatomic stage, there were significant differences in survival in all sub-stages except IIIB. On multivariate analysis, the hazard ratio for negative ER was 1.74 (1.48-2.06), for negative HER2 was 1.49 (1.26-1.74), and for grade 3 was 1.84 (1.55-2.19). On multivariate analysis controlled for age, ethnicity, and receipt of chemotherapy, the RSS (Akaike information criterion [AIC] = 10,649.45; Harrell's Concordance Index [C] = 0.85) was not inferior to the AJCC8 PS (AIC = 10,726.65; C = 0.84) for CSS, nor was the RSS (AIC = 14,714.4; C = 0.82) inferior to the AJCC8 PS (AIC = 14,784.69; C = 0.81) for OS. CONCLUSION: The RSS is comparable to the AJCC8 PS for a patient population receiving chemotherapy as well as endocrine- and HER2-targeted therapy and further stratifies stage IV patients.