Physical Fitness and Risk of Mental Disorders in Children and Adolescents.

Importance: With the rising prevalence of mental disorders among children and adolescents, identifying modifiable associations is critical. Objective: To examine the association between physical fitness and mental disorder risks. Design, Setting, and Participants: This nationwide cohort study used data from the Taiwan National Student Fitness Tests and National Health Insurance Research Databases from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2019. Participants were divided into 2 cohorts targeting anxiety and depression (1 996 633 participants) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD; 1 920 596 participants). Participants were aged 10 to 11 years at study entry and followed up for at least 3 years, had a nearly equal gender distribution, and an average follow-up of 6 years. Data were analyzed from October 2022 to February 2024. Exposures: Assessments of physical fitness included cardiorespiratory fitness (CF), muscular endurance (ME), muscular power (MP), and flexibility, measured through an 800-m run time, bent-leg curl-ups, standing broad jump, and sit-and-reach test, respectively. Main Outcomes and Measures: Kaplan-Meier method calculated the cumulative incidence of anxiety, depression, and ADHD across fitness quartiles. Additionally, multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used that included all 4 fitness components and explored sex and income as modifiers. Results: The anxiety and depression cohort had 1 996 633 participants (1 035 411 participants were male [51.9%], and the median [IQR] age was 10.6 [10.3-11.0] years), while the ADHD cohort had 1 920 596 (975 568 participants were male [51.9%], and the median [IQR] age was 10.6 [10.3-11.0] years). Cumulative incidence of mental disorders was lower among participants in better-performing fitness quartiles, suggesting a dose-dependent association. Gender-specific analyses, controlling for confounders, revealed that improved CF, indicated by a 30-second decrease in run times, was associated with reduced risks of anxiety, depression, and ADHD in female participants, and lower risks of anxiety and ADHD in male participants (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] for ADHD risk for female participants, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.90-0.94; P < .001; for male participants, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.92-0.94; P < .001). Enhanced ME, marked by an increase of 5 curl-ups per minute, was associated with decreased risks of depression and ADHD in female participants, and lower anxiety and ADHD risks in male participants (aHR for ADHD risk for female participants, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.92-0.97; P < .001; for male participants, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.95-0.97; P < .001). Improved MP, reflected by a 20-cm increase in jump distance, was associated with reduced risks of anxiety and ADHD in female participants and reduced anxiety, depression, and ADHD in male participants (aHR for ADHD risk for female participants, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.91-1.00; P = .04; for male participants, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.94-0.99; P = .001). Conclusions and Relevance: This study highlights the potential protective role of cardiorespiratory fitness, muscular endurance, and muscular power in preventing the onset of mental disorders. It warrants further investigation of the effectiveness of physical fitness programs as a preventive measure for mental disorders among children and adolescents.

Physical Fitness and Inflammatory Bowel Disease Risk Among Children and Adolescents in Taiwan.

Importance: The incidence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is increasing in newly industrialized countries but disease etiologies remain unclear. Objective: To investigate the association between physical fitness and subsequent IBD risk among children and adolescents in Taiwan. Design, Setting, and Participants: This nationwide cohort study was conducted between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2018. Data sources included the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database, the National Student Fitness Tests Database, and the Air Quality Monitoring System Database. This study included students who were aged 10 years, completed physical fitness tests between grades 4 and 13, and had at least 1 year of follow-up. Data analysis was last performed on January 15, 2023. Exposures: Physical fitness tests included cardiorespiratory endurance (CE; number of minutes to complete an 800-m run), musculoskeletal endurance (ME; number of bent-leg curl-ups in 1 minute), musculoskeletal power (MP; standing broad jump distance), and flexibility fitness (FF; 2-leg sit-and-reach distance). Main Outcomes and Measures: Subsequent risk of IBD was compared among students based on physical fitness test results. Six-year cumulative incidences and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated after adjusting for competing mortality. Performance was reported in quantiles, ranging from 1 (best) to 4 (poorest). Results: There were 4 552 866 students who completed physical fitness tests between grades 4 and 13; among these students, 1 393 641 were aged 10 years and were included in the analysis. Six-year cumulative incidence of IBD risk was lowest among students in the best-performing quantile of CE (quantile 1, 0.74% [95% CI, 0.63%-0.86%]; P < .001), ME (0.77% [0.65%-0.90%]; P < .001), and MP (0.81% [0.68%-0.93%]; P = .005) compared with students in quantiles 2 through 4, respectively; however, no association was observed for quantiles of FF. After adjusting for competing HRs for mortality and other confounders, better CE was inversely associated with IBD risk (adjusted HR, 0.36 [95% CI, 0.17-0.75]; P = .007). Other measures of physical fitness were not independently associated with IBD risk. Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this study suggest that CE was inversely associated with IBD risk among children and adolescents, but ME, MP, and FF were not independently associated with IBD risk. Future studies that explore the mechanisms are needed.

Human mobility increased with vaccine coverage and attenuated the protection of COVID-19 vaccination: A longitudinal study of 107 countries.

Background: The World Health Organization has raised concerns that vaccinated people may reduce physical and social distancing more than necessary. With imperfect vaccine protection and the lifting of mobility restrictions, understanding how human mobility responded to vaccination and its potential consequence is critical. We estimated vaccination-induced mobility (VM) and examined whether it attenuates the effect of COVID-19 vaccination on controlling case growth. Methods: We collected a longitudinal data set of 107 countries between 15 February 2020 and 6 February 2022 from Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Our World in Data, and World Development Indicators. We measured mobility in four categories of location: retail and recreational places, transit stations, grocery stores and pharmacies, and workplaces. We applied panel data models to address unobserved country characteristics and used Gelbach decomposition to evaluate the extent to which VM has offset vaccination effectiveness. Results: Across locations, a 10-percentage-point (pp) increase in vaccine coverage was associated with a 1.4-4.3 pp increase in mobility (P < 0.001). VM was greater in lower-income countries (up to 7.9 pps; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 5.3 to 10.5, P < 0.001) and in earlier stages of vaccine rollouts (up to 19.2 pps; 95% CI = 15.1 to 23.2%, P < 0.001). VM decreased the effectiveness of vaccines in controlling case growth by 33.4% in retail and recreation places (P < 0.001), 26.4% in transit stations (P < 0.001), and 15.4% in grocery stores and pharmacies (P = 0.002). Conclusions: VM provides support for the Peltzman effect; it attenuates but does not completely counter vaccine effectiveness. Our study findings suggest strategies for mitigating the unintended consequences of VM, including reducing short-term mobility responses after vaccination, prioritizing mobility in grocery-type places and workplaces, and accelerating rollouts at earlier stages of vaccination, especially in lower-income countries.

A comparative study of positive and negative electronic word-of-mouth on the SERVQUAL scale during the COVID-19 epidemic - taking a regional teaching hospital in Taiwan as an example.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, studies have shown that electronic WOM (eWOM) directly reflects consumers' post-purchase psychological perception and directly affects repurchase behavior. This information is valued by institutions in various fields. Within the scope of the evaluation of service characteristics, medical service is the least visible and most difficult service attribute to evaluate. Service organizations must have high trust attributes. Therefore, an eWOM review significantly influences people's decision-making process when choosing a healthcare provider. The purpose of this research is to combine eWOM reviews with the SERVQUAL scale in a comparative study of positive and negative eWOM reviews of a regional teaching hospital in Taiwan. METHODS: This research obtained data from publicly available eWOM reviews on Google Maps of a regional teaching hospital in Taiwan over the past 10 years (from June 24, 2011, to December 31, 2021) using website scraping technology. The semantic content analysis method was used in this study to classify eWOM reviews according to the revised PZB SERVQUAL scale. RESULTS: Statistical analysis was conducted. During the COVID-19 pandemic, positive reviews showed a downward trend. Among the five determinants of the SERVQUAL of PZB, positive eWOM reviews performed best in "assurance" with a positive review rate of 60.00%, followed by 42.11% for "reliability". For negative eWOM reviews, "assurance" performed the worst with a positive rate of 72.34%, followed by "responsiveness" at 28.37% and "reliability" at 26.95%. CONCLUSION: Since the onset of COVID-19 in 2020, negative eWOM has increased significantly and exceeded the amount of positive eWOM. Regardless of positive and negative reviews, what patients care most about is "assurance" of the professional attitude and skills of medical staff, which urgently needs to be strengthened. In addition, good "reliability" will help to develop positive eWOM. However, "responsiveness" as indicated by poor service waiting time can easily lead to the spread of negative eWOM. Hospital management should focus on these service-oriented qualities.

The choice of Taiwanese college students to vaccinate against severe special infectious pneumonia COVID-19 based on the integrated theory of planning behavior.

Taiwan's coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine procurement was delayed until October 2021. With the vaccine's introduction in Taiwan, the public will have an opportunity to choose vaccination. Choosing to vaccinate involves considerations regarding the trade-off between the protective power of the vaccine and its side effects, which is a planned behavior. College students have considered high-risk objects for COVID-19 outbreaks given their lifestyle, and their efficient vaccination may help reduce mutual infection between college students and the general public. This study obtained 707 valid questionnaires from Taiwan college students (20 years old and above). We investigated several factors during our college students' survey regarding vaccination. Among this integrated TPB model, "Attitude," "Subjective Norm," "Perceived Behavioral Control," and "COVID-19 Information Asymmetry" had a positive impact on vaccination "Behavioral Intention." COVID-19 information asymmetry positively and significantly affected behavioral intention through perceived behavioral control, while perceived behavioral control had a mediating effect. To promote the behavioral intention of college students to choose COVID-19 vaccination, public and private departments for epidemic prevention must aim to overcome the self-efficacy barriers of perceived behavioral control and promote the primary group influence effect of subjective norm and the self-interest factor of attitude. Governments and NGOs should also ensure prompt and accurate transmission of epidemic and vaccine information and actively investigate and prohibit misleading details from unknown sources and no scientific basis. Such a policy will generate trust, effectively increasing the vaccination rate and reducing cluster infection.

The Association Between Dissemination and Characteristics of Pro-/Anti-COVID-19 Vaccine Messages on Twitter: Application of the Elaboration Likelihood Model.

Background: Messages on one's stance toward vaccination on microblogging sites may affect the reader's decision on whether to receive a vaccine. Understanding the dissemination of provaccine and antivaccine messages relating to COVID-19 on social media is crucial; however, studies on this topic have remained limited. Objective: This study applies the elaboration likelihood model (ELM) to explore the characteristics of vaccine stance messages that may appeal to Twitter users. First, we examined the associations between the characteristics of vaccine stance tweets and the likelihood and number of retweets. Second, we identified the relative importance of the central and peripheral routes in decision-making on sharing a message. Methods: English-language tweets from the United States that contained provaccine and antivaccine hashtags (N=150,338) were analyzed between April 26 and August 26, 2021. Logistic and generalized negative binomial regressions were conducted to predict retweet outcomes. The content-related central-route predictors were measured using the numbers of hashtags and mentions, emotional valence, emotional intensity, and concreteness. The content-unrelated peripheral-route predictors were measured using the numbers of likes and followers and whether the source was a verified user. Results: Content-related characteristics played a prominent role in shaping decisions regarding whether to retweet antivaccine messages. Particularly, positive valence (incidence rate ratio [IRR]=1.32, P=.03) and concreteness (odds ratio [OR]=1.17, P=.01) were associated with higher numbers and likelihood of retweets of antivaccine messages, respectively; emotional intensity (subjectivity) was associated with fewer retweets of antivaccine messages (OR=0.78, P=.03; IRR=0.80, P=.04). However, these factors had either no or only small effects on the sharing of provaccine tweets. Retweets of provaccine messages were primarily determined by content-unrelated characteristics, such as the numbers of likes (OR=2.55, IRR=2.24, P<.001) and followers (OR=1.31, IRR=1.28, P<.001). Conclusions: The dissemination of antivaccine messages is associated with both content-related and content-unrelated characteristics. By contrast, the dissemination of provaccine messages is primarily driven by content-unrelated characteristics. These findings signify the importance of leveraging the peripheral route to promote the dissemination of provaccine messages. Because antivaccine tweets with positive emotions, objective content, and concrete words are more likely to be disseminated, policymakers should pay attention to antivaccine messages with such characteristics.

Early-Life Antibiotic Exposure Associated With Varicella Occurrence and Breakthrough Infections: Evidence From Nationwide Pre-Vaccination and Post-Vaccination Cohorts.

Background: Antibiotic-driven dysbiosis may impair immune function and reduce vaccine-induced antibody titers. Objectives: This study aims to investigate the impacts of early-life antibiotic exposure on subsequent varicella and breakthrough infections. Methods: This is a nationwide matched cohort study. From Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database, we initially enrolled 187,921 children born from 1997 to 2010. Since 2003, the Taiwan government has implemented a one-dose universal varicella vaccination program for children aged 1 year. We identified 82,716 children born during the period 1997 to 2003 (pre-vaccination era) and 48,254 children born from July 1, 2004, to 2009 (vaccination era). In the pre-vaccination era, 4,246 children exposed to antibiotics for at least 7 days within the first 2 years of life (Unvaccinated A-cohort) were compared with reference children not exposed to antibiotics (Unvaccinated R-cohort), with 1:1 matching for gender, propensity score, and non-antibiotic microbiota-altering medications. Using the same process, 9,531 children in the Vaccinated A-cohort and Vaccinated R-cohort were enrolled from the vaccination era and compared. The primary outcome was varicella. In each era, demographic characteristics were compared, and cumulative incidences of varicella were calculated. Cox proportional hazards model was used to examine associations. Results: In the pre-vaccination era, the 5-year cumulative incidence of varicella in the Unvaccinated A-cohort (23.45%, 95% CI 22.20% to 24.70%) was significantly higher than in the Unvaccinated R-cohort (16.72%, 95% CI 15.62% to 17.82%) (p<.001). In the vaccination era, a significantly higher 5-year cumulative incidence of varicella was observed in the Vaccinated A-cohort (1.63%, 95% 1.32% to 1.93%) than in the Vaccinated R-cohort (1.19%, 95% CI 0.90% to 0.45%) (p=0.006). On multivariate analyses, early-life antibiotic exposure was an independent risk factor for varicella occurrence in the pre-vaccination (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.92, 95% CI 1.74 to 2.12) and vaccination eras (aHR 1.66, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.23). The use of penicillins, cephalosporins, macrolides, or sulfonamides in infancy was all positively associated with childhood varicella regardless of vaccine administration. Conclusions: Antibiotic exposure in early life is associated with varicella occurrence and breakthrough infections.

Research priorities to reduce the impact of COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused disruptions to the functioning of societies and their health systems. Prior to the pandemic, health systems in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) were particularly stretched and vulnerable. The International Society of Global Health (ISoGH) sought to systematically identify priorities for health research that would have the potential to reduce the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in LMICs. Methods: The Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method was used to identify COVID-19-related research priorities. All ISoGH members were invited to participate. Seventy-nine experts in clinical, translational, and population research contributed 192 research questions for consideration. Fifty-two experts then scored those questions based on five pre-defined criteria that were selected for this exercise: 1) feasibility and answerability; 2) potential for burden reduction; 3) potential for a paradigm shift; 4) potential for translation and implementation; and 5) impact on equity. Results: Among the top 10 research priorities, research questions related to vaccination were prominent: health care system access barriers to equitable uptake of COVID-19 vaccination (ranked 1st), determinants of vaccine hesitancy (4th), development and evaluation of effective interventions to decrease vaccine hesitancy (5th), and vaccination impacts on vulnerable population/s (6th). Health care delivery questions also ranked highly, including: effective strategies to manage COVID-19 globally and in LMICs (2nd) and integrating health care for COVID-19 with other essential health services in LMICs (3rd). Additionally, the assessment of COVID-19 patients' needs in rural areas of LMICs was ranked 7th, and studying the leading socioeconomic determinants and consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in LMICs using multi-faceted approaches was ranked 8th. The remaining questions in the top 10 were: clarifying paediatric case-fatality rates (CFR) in LMICs and identifying effective strategies for community engagement against COVID-19 in different LMIC contexts. Interpretation: Health policy and systems research to inform COVID-19 vaccine uptake and equitable access to care are urgently needed, especially for rural, vulnerable, and/or marginalised populations. This research should occur in parallel with studies that will identify approaches to minimise vaccine hesitancy and effectively integrate care for COVID-19 with other essential health services in LMICs. ISoGH calls on the funders of health research in LMICs to consider the urgency and priority of this research during the COVID-19 pandemic and support studies that could make a positive difference for the populations of LMICs.

COVID-19 case doubling time associated with non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination: A global experience.

BACKGROUND: Evidence has revealed that nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were effective in attenuating the spread of COVID-19. However, policymakers have encountered difficulty in identifying the most effective policies under different circumstances. This study investigated the relative effectiveness of different NPIs and vaccination in prolonging COVID-19 case doubling time (DT). METHODS: The study sample consisted of observations from 137 countries during 1 January 2020 to 13 June 2021. DT was calculated on a daily basis per country. Data were retrieved from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, World Development Indicators, and Worldwide Governance Indicators. To capture policy intervention dynamics, we combined a random-effect growth-curve model with nonstandard interrupted time series analysis. We also evaluated the association of policy measures with DT for different outbreak stages and levels of government effectiveness. RESULTS: Vaccine rollouts, workplace closures, and school closures were relatively effective. For each day that these measures were implemented, the DT increased by 1.96% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.63 to 3.29; P = 0.004), 1.41% (95% CI = 0.88 to 1.95%; P < 0.001) and 1.38% (95% CI = 0.95 to 1.81%; P < 0.001), respectively. Workplace and school closures were positively associated with DT at all stages; however, the associations weakened in later stages, where vaccine rollouts appeared to be most effective in prolonging DT (95% CI = 1.51% to 3.04%; P < 0.05). For countries with a high level of government effectiveness, most of the containment measures evaluated were effective; vaccine rollouts had the greatest effect size. For countries with medium or low levels of government effectiveness, only the closure of workplaces was consistently associated with prolonged DT. CONCLUSIONS: The effectiveness of vaccine rollouts outweighed that of NPIs, especially in the later outbreak stages. However, vaccination was not associated with prolonged case DT in countries with lower levels of government effectiveness, probably due to low vaccine coverage. Among the NPIs examined, workplace closures were highly effective across all outbreak stages and levels of government effectiveness. Our findings suggest that mass vaccination is critical to reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission, especially in countries where NPIs are less effective.

Incentives for physician teams: Effectiveness of performance feedback and payment distribution methods.

Best practices in team-based incentive design remain underexplored. This study examines under group-based pay-for-performance, how managers incentivize physicians for teamwork through internal feedback and payment distribution methods. In collaboration with Taiwan Association of Family Medicine, authors conducted a national survey of physician groups, with a response rate of 48.3%. Multilevel linear regression was applied to 134 groups, collectively consisting of 1,245 physicians in Taiwan. The outcome variables were two manager-rated scores for group performance on achieving (a) comprehensive, coordinated, continuous care, and (b) patient health improvement. The results indicate that providing each physician feedback on peer performance is superior to not providing it; when providing peer information within a group, concealing identities is superior to revealing them. These findings imply that application of the principle of social comparison can be effective; however, caution should be taken when disclosure of identifiable peer performance may intensify peer competition and undermine care coordination in team-based models. Further, groups that distribute payments equally among physicians perform better than groups that distributed payment proportionally to physicians' patient shares. The findings are germane to small teams, where physicians do not have full control over care processes and outcomes, and need to work cooperatively to maximize group-based payment.

COVID-19 vaccinations are associated with reduced fatality rates: Evidence from cross-country quasi-experiments.

BACKGROUND: Scientists have demonstrated the efficacy of vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in randomized controlled trials. However, the extent to which reductions in COVID-19 case fatality ratio (CFR) are attributable to mass vaccination in the real world remains unclear. This study evaluated the association of COVID-19 vaccine coverage with CFR on a global scale. METHODS: The sample was a longitudinal data set of 90 countries over 25 weeks, from the first week of November 2020 to the third week of April 2021. CFR was measured in deaths per 100 COVID-19 confirmed cases; vaccine coverage was defined as the number of people who received at least one vaccine dose per 10 people in the total population. Data were retrieved from open-access databases, including Our World in Data and the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. A country-level random effects model was used; a comprehensive set of variables for country characteristics and nonpharmaceutical interventions were included. RESULTS: A 10% increase in vaccine coverage was associated with a 7.6% reduction in the CFR (95% confidence interval (CI = -12.6 to -2.7%, P = 0.002). This association was stronger in countries with more effective governments (-8.3%; 95% CI = -13.6 to -3.1%, P = 0.002) and higher transport infrastructure quality (-8.1%; 95% CI = -13.3 to -2.9%, P = 0.002). Moreover, the vaccine coverage was associated with a reduced CFR in a dose-dependent manner. When vaccine coverage achieved 0.8 to 1.6, 1.6 to 3.2 and ≥3.2 per 10 people, the CFR reduced by 12.7% (95 CI = -21.8 to -3.6%, P = 0.006), 21.2% (95 CI = -33.9 to -8.5%, P = 0.001) and 31.3% (95 CI = -51.5 to -11.0%, P = 0.002), respectively as compared with no vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide supporting evidence that vaccination is critical to preventing deaths among infected people. Vaccination programmes have yielded significant health benefits in certain countries. However, globally, a large gap remains between observed and achievable fatality reductions. Continuous improvement in vaccine coverage will be critical to transforming efficacious vaccines into desired health outcomes.

Do patients bypass primary care for common health problems under a free-access system? Experience of Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: A common challenge for free-access systems is that people may bypass primary care and seek secondary care through self-referral. Taiwan's government has undertaken various initiatives to mitigate bypass; however, little is known about whether the bypass trend has decreased over time. This study examined the extent to which patients bypass primary care for treatment of common diseases and factors associated with bypass under Taiwan's free-access system. METHODS: This repeated cross-sectional study analyzed data from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. A random sample of 1 million enrollees was drawn repeatedly from the insured population during 2000-2017. To capture visits beyond the community level, the bypass rate was defined as the proportion of self-referred visits to the top two levels of providers, namely academic medical centers and regional hospitals, among all visits to all providers. Subgroup analyses were conducted for visits with a single diagnosis. Logistic regressions were used to investigate factors associated with bypass. RESULTS: The standardized bypass rate for all diseases analyzed exhibited a decreasing trend. In 2017, it was low for common cold (0.7-1.3%), moderate for hypertension (14.0-29.5%), but still high for diabetes (32.0-47.0%). Moreover, the likelihood of bypass was higher for male, patients with higher salaries or comorbidities, and in areas with more physicians practicing in large hospitals or less physicians working in primary care facilities. CONCLUSIONS: Although the bypass trend has decreased over time, continuing efforts may be required to reduce bypass associated with chronic diseases. Both patient sociodemographic and market characteristics were associated with the likelihood of bypass. These results may help policymakers to develop strategies to mitigate bypass.

Covid-19 mortality is negatively associated with test number and government effectiveness.

A question central to the Covid-19 pandemic is why the Covid-19 mortality rate varies so greatly across countries. This study aims to investigate factors associated with cross-country variation in Covid-19 mortality. Covid-19 mortality rate was calculated as number of deaths per 100 Covid-19 cases. To identify factors associated with Covid-19 mortality rate, linear regressions were applied to a cross-sectional dataset comprising 169 countries. We retrieved data from the Worldometer website, the Worldwide Governance Indicators, World Development Indicators, and Logistics Performance Indicators databases. Covid-19 mortality rate was negatively associated with Covid-19 test number per 100 people (RR = 0.92, P = 0.001), government effectiveness score (RR = 0.96, P = 0.017), and number of hospital beds (RR = 0.85, P < 0.001). Covid-19 mortality rate was positively associated with proportion of population aged 65 or older (RR = 1.12, P < 0.001) and transport infrastructure quality score (RR = 1.08, P = 0.002). Furthermore, the negative association between Covid-19 mortality and test number was stronger among low-income countries and countries with lower government effectiveness scores, younger populations and fewer hospital beds. Predicted mortality rates were highly associated with observed mortality rates (r = 0.77; P < 0.001). Increasing Covid-19 testing, improving government effectiveness and increasing hospital beds may have the potential to attenuate Covid-19 mortality.

Impact of integrated healthcare: Taiwan's Family Doctor Plan.

Integration of health services has been pursued worldwide. Diversity in integration approaches and in the contexts in which integrated programmes operate, however, hinders comparative analysis of care integration in both high-income countries (HICs) and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study evaluates an HIC programme implemented in a delivery system resembling those of LMICs, especially its weak primary care system. The programme, Taiwan's Family Doctor Plan (FDP), targets high-cost and chronic patients, incorporating key elements of integrated care, viz., case management, multidisciplinary teams and care pathways. This study estimates the effects of shifting from usual to integrated care and locates contextual factors that may distort programme implementation. To estimate programme effects, difference-in-differences analysis is applied to a balanced panel comprising >160 000 patients over 2009-13. Because physician participation is voluntary, a propensity score matching method is used to match providers. The research findings reveal that introduction of the FDP has not reoriented the model of care from fragmented towards integrated health services. It reduces continuity of care and has no effect on co-ordination of care. Regarding quality of care, the FDP is shown to have no effect on avoidable admissions and increases drug injections and emergency department visits. Several contextual factors may serve as barriers that impede elements of FDP from generating desirable outcomes. These include absence of registration and gatekeeping systems; limited capacities of clinics; and preponderance of fee-for-service remuneration. These findings suggest that HIC design elements may not be directly transferrable to settings with weak primary care systems, as is typical of LMIC healthcare. Changes at the system level, such as establishing regular sources of care, may be necessary before elements of integrated care are introduced to a weaker primary care system.

Emergency department overcrowding: Quality improvement in a Taiwan Medical Center.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Overcrowding of hospital emergency departments (ED) is a worldwide health problem. The Taiwan Joint Commission on Hospital Accreditation has stressed the importance of finding solutions to overcrowding, including, reducing the number of patients with >48 h stay in the ED. Moreover, the Ministry of Health and Welfare aims at transferring non-critical patients to district or regional hospitals. We report the results of our Quality Improvement Project (QIP) on ED overcrowding, especially focusing on reducing length of stay (LOS) in ED. METHODS: For QIP, the following 3 action plans were initiated: 1) Changing the choice architecture of patients' willingness to transfer from opt-in to opt-out; 2) increasing the turnover rate of beds and daily monitoring of the number of free beds for boarding ED patients; 3) reevaluation of patients with a LOS of >32 h after the morning shift. RESULTS: Transfer rates increased minimally after implementation of this project, but the sample size was too small to achieve statistical significance. No significant increase was observed in the number of free medical beds, but discharge rates after 12 pm decreased significantly (p < 0.001). The proportion of over 48 h LOSs decreased from 4.9% to 3.7% before and after QIP implementation, respectively (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Patients with LOS of >32 h were reevaluated first. After QIP, the proportion of LOSs of >48 h dropped significantly. Changing the choice architecture may require further systemic effort and a longer observation duration. Higher-level administrators will need to formulate a more comprehensive bed management plan to speed up the turnover rate of free inpatient beds.

The cyclicality of government health expenditure and its effects on population health.

Scholars have raised concerns that cutbacks on government health expenditure (GHE) during recessions may jeopardise population health. The present research investigates the extent to which population health outcomes are affected by responses of GHE to business cycles, i.e., cyclicality of GHE. We estimate GHE cyclicality by regressing detrended GHE on detrended gross domestic product (GDP). Our analysis of data for 1995 through 2014 from 135 developing countries shows that mean cyclicality is 0.61, or that a one percent deviation from the GDP trend is positively correlated with a 0.61 percent deviation from the GHE trend. Further, countries in which GHE is less procyclical appear to have shorter life expectancies and higher adult mortality rates. These results suggest that reducing procyclicality of GHE by protecting GHE in bad times may generate substantial health gains. Importantly, our results show that increasing the weight of social security funds in health budgets, and improving institutional quality, can be critical to breaking the procyclical pattern of GHE.

Do diagnosis-related group-based payments incentivise hospitals to adjust output mix?

This study investigates whether the diagnosis-related group (DRG)-based payment method motivates hospitals to adjust output mix in order to maximise profits. The hypothesis is that when there is an increase in profitability of a DRG, hospitals will increase the proportion of that DRG (own-price effects) and decrease those of other DRGs (cross-price effects), except in cases where there are scope economies in producing two different DRGs. This conjecture is tested in the context of the case payment scheme (CPS) under Taiwan's National Health Insurance programme over the period of July 1999 to December 2004. To tackle endogeneity of DRG profitability and treatment policy, a fixed-effects three-stage least squares method is applied. The results support the hypothesised own-price and cross-price effects, showing that DRGs which share similar resources appear to be complements rather substitutes. For-profit hospitals do not appear to be more responsive to DRG profitability, possibly because of their institutional characteristics and bonds with local communities. The key conclusion is that DRG-based payments will encourage a type of 'product-range' specialisation, which may improve hospital efficiency in the long run. However, further research is needed on how changes in output mix impact patient access and pay-outs of health insurance.

Why do some countries spend more for health? An assessment of sociopolitical determinants and international aid for government health expenditures.

A consensus exists that rising income levels and technological development are among key drivers of total health spending. Determinants of public sector health expenditure, by contrast, are less well understood. This study examines a complex relationship across government health expenditure (GHE), sociopolitical risks, and international aid, while taking into account the impacts of national income, debt and tax financing and aging populations on health spending. We apply a fixed-effects two-stage least squares regression method to a panel dataset comprising 120 countries for the years 1995 through 2010. Our results show that democratic accountability has a diminishing positive correlation with GHE, and that levels of GHE are higher when government is more stable. Corruption is associated with less GHE in developing countries, but with higher GHE in developed countries. We also find that development assistance for health (DAH) is fungible with domestically financed government health expenditure (DGHE). For an average country, a 1% increase in DAH to government is associated with a 0.03-0.04% decrease in DGHE. Furthermore, the degree of fungibility of DAH to government is higher in countries where corruption or ethnic tensions are widespread. However, DAH to non-governmental organizations is not fungible with DGHE.