Exposure-efficacy and exposure-safety analyses of ropeginterferon alfa-2b treatment in patients with polycythaemia vera.

AIMS: To investigate the exposure-response (E-R) relationship, including exposure-efficacy and exposure-safety, of ropeginterferon alfa-2b treatment in patients with polycythaemia vera (PV). METHODS: Based on the results of the phase II trial A20-202 regarding ropeginterferon alfa-2b in patients with PV, E-R analyses were performed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of the given dosing regimen. The E-R analyses were based on logistic and linear regression and the relationship between exposure to ropeginterferon alfa-2b and key efficacy and safety variables. The key efficacy variables included complete haematologic response (CHR) and reduction of the driver mutation JAK2V617F. The safety variable was treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs). RESULTS: A clear relationship between the exposure to ropeginterferon alfa-2b and CHR was observed, with an increase in drug exposure resulting in an increased probability of achieving CHR. Similar CHR probabilities were observed in the third and fourth quantiles of the average concentration at Week 24. The results from the exposure-JAK2V617F model indicated that the JAK2V617F allele burden decreased with increasing exposure to ropeginterferon alfa-2b and baseline body surface area. Exposure-safety analysis revealed a risk of AEs associated with transaminase abnormalities, which were not associated with clinical significance. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses have shown that patients with PV treated with ropeginterferon alfa-2b had an increased probability of achieving CHR and a molecular response with acceptable safety risks at the 250-350-500 µg titration dosing regimen. This study has provided the relevant data for the application of a biologics licence of ropeginterferon alfa-2b for PV treatment in China.

Circadian misalignment impacts the association of visceral adiposity with metabolic syndrome in adolescents.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: Although insufficient sleep is a risk factor for metabolic syndrome (MetS), the circadian timing of sleep (CTS) is also involved in cardiac and metabolic regulation. We examined whether delays and deviations in the sleep midpoint (SM), a measure of CTS, modify the association between visceral adipose tissue (VAT) and MetS in adolescents. METHODS: We evaluated 277 adolescents (median 16 years) who had at least 5 nights of at-home actigraphy (ACT), in-lab polysomnography (PSG), dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scan, and MetS score data. Sleep midpoint (SM), sleep irregularity (SI), and social jetlag (SJL) were examined as effect modifiers of the association between VAT and MetS, including waist circumference, blood pressure, insulin resistance, triglycerides, and cholesterol. Linear regression models adjusted for demographics, ACT-sleep duration, ACT-sleep variability, and PSG-apnea-hypopnea index. RESULTS: The association between VAT and MetS was significantly stronger (p-values for interactions < 0.001) among adolescents with a schooldays SM later than 4:00 (2.66 [0.30] points increase in MetS score), a SI higher than 1 hour (2.49 [0.30]) or a SJL greater than 1.5 hours (2.15 [0.36]), than in those with an earlier SM (<3:00; 1.76 [0.28]), lower SI (<30 minutes; 0.98 [0.70]), or optimal SJL (<30 minutes; 1.08 [0.45]). CONCLUSIONS: A delayed sleep phase, an irregular sleep-wake cycle, and greater social jetlag on schooldays identified adolescents in whom VAT had a stronger association with MetS. Circadian misalignment is a risk factor that enhances the impact of visceral obesity on cardiometabolic morbidity and should be a target of preventative strategies in adolescents.

Circadian Misalignment Impacts the Association of Visceral Adiposity With Elevated Blood Pressure in Adolescents.

BACKGROUND: Although insufficient sleep has been shown to contribute to obesity-related elevated blood pressure, the circadian timing of sleep has emerged as a novel risk factor. We hypothesized that deviations in sleep midpoint, a measure of circadian timing of sleep, modify the association between visceral adiposity and elevated blood pressure in adolescents. METHODS: We studied 303 subjects from the Penn State Child Cohort (16.2±2.2 years; 47.5% female; 21.5% racial/ethnic minority). Actigraphy-measured sleep duration, midpoint, variability, and regularity were calculated across a 7-night period. Visceral adipose tissue (VAT) was measured with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure levels were measured in the seated position. Multivariable linear regression models tested sleep midpoint and its regularity as effect modifiers of VAT on SBP/diastolic blood pressure levels, while adjusting for demographic and sleep covariables. These associations were also examined as a function of being in-school or on-break. RESULTS: Significant interactions were found between VAT and sleep irregularity, but not sleep midpoint, on SBP (P interaction=0.007) and diastolic blood pressure (P interaction=0.022). Additionally, significant interactions were found between VAT and schooldays sleep midpoint on SBP (P interaction=0.026) and diastolic blood pressure (P interaction=0.043), whereas significant interactions were found between VAT and on-break weekdays sleep irregularity on SBP (P interaction=0.034). CONCLUSIONS: A delayed and an irregular sleep midpoint during school and during free-days, respectively, increase the impact of VAT on elevated blood pressure in adolescents. These data suggest that deviations in the circadian timing of sleep contribute to the increased cardiovascular sequelae associated with obesity and that its distinct metrics require measurement under different entrainment conditions in adolescents.

A gated group sequential design for seamless Phase II/III trial with subpopulation selection.

BACKGROUND: Due to the high cost and high failure rate of Phase III trials where a classical group sequential design (GSD) is usually used, seamless Phase II/III designs are more and more popular to improve trial efficiency. A potential attraction of Phase II/III design is to allow a randomized proof-of-concept stage prior to committing to the full cost of a Phase III trial. Population selection during the trial allows a trial to adapt and focus investment where it is most likely to provide patient benefit. Previous methods have been developed for this problem when there is a single primary endpoint and two possible populations. METHODS: To find the population that potentially benefits with one or two primary endpoints (e.g., progression free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS)), we propose a gated group sequential design for a seamless Phase II/III trial design with adaptive population selection. RESULTS: The investigated design controls the familywise error rate and allows multiple interim analyses to enable early stopping for efficacy or futility. Simulations and an illustrative example suggest that the proposed gated group sequential design has more power and requires less time and resources compared to the group sequential design and adaptive design. CONCLUSIONS: Combining the group sequential design and adaptive design, the gated group sequential design has more power and higher efficiency while controlling for the familywise error rate. It has the potential to save drug development cost and more quickly fulfill unmet medical needs.

New insight into Epstein-Barr virus infection using models of stratified epithelium.

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is a ubiquitous human pathogen that is transmitted in saliva. EBV transits through the oral epithelium to infect B cells, where it establishes a life-long latent infection. Reinfection of the epithelium is believed to be mediated by virus shed from B cells, but whether a latent reservoir can exist in the epithelia is unknown. We previously developed an in vitro organotypic model of stratified epithelium where EBV can readily replicate within the suprabasal layers of the epithelium following apical infection mediated by virus-producing B cells. Given that infected epithelial cells and cell-free virus are observed in saliva, we examined the ability of both of these to mediate infection in organotypic cultures. Epithelial-derived cell-free virus was able to infect organotypic cultures from the apical surface, but showed enhanced infection of B cells. Conversely, B cell-derived virus exhibited enhanced infection of epithelial cells. While EBV has been detected in basal cells in oral hairy leukoplakia, it is unknown whether EBV can be seen in undifferentiated primary keratinocytes in the basal layer. Undifferentiated epithelial cells expressed proposed EBV receptors in monolayer and were susceptible to viral binding and entry. Integrins, and occasionally ephrin A2, were expressed in the basal layer of gingiva and tonsil derived organotypic cultures, but the known B-cell receptors HLAII and CD21 were not detected. Following infection with cell-free virus or virus-producing B cells at either the apical or basolateral surface of preformed organotypic cultures, abundant infection was detected in differentiated suprabasal cells while more limited but readily detectable infection was observed in the undifferentiated basal cells. Together, our data has provided new insight into EBV infection in stratified epithelium.

The Epstein-Barr Virus Glycoprotein BDLF2 Is Essential for Efficient Viral Spread in Stratified Epithelium.

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is a ubiquitous human pathogen that infects the majority of the adult population regardless of socioeconomic status or geographical location. EBV primarily infects B and epithelial cells and is associated with different cancers of these cell types, such as Burkitt lymphoma and nasopharyngeal carcinoma. While the life cycle of EBV in B cells is well understood, EBV infection within epithelium is not, largely due to the inability to model productive replication in epithelium in vitro. Organotypic cultures generated from primary human keratinocytes can model many aspects of EBV infection, including productive replication in the suprabasal layers. The EBV glycoprotein BDLF2 is a positional homologue of the murine gammaherpesvirus-68 protein gp48, which plays a role in intercellular spread of viral infection, though sequence homology is limited. To determine the role that BDLF2 plays in EBV infection, we generated a recombinant EBV in which the BDLF2 gene has been replaced with a puromycin resistance gene. The ΔBDLF2 recombinant virus infected both B cell and HEK293 cell lines and was able to immortalize primary B cells. However, the loss of BDLF2 resulted in substantially fewer infected cells in organotypic cultures compared to wild-type virus. While numerous clusters of infected cells representing a focus of infection are observed in wild-type-infected organotypic cultures, the majority of cells observed in the absence of BDLF2 were isolated cells, suggesting that the EBV glycoprotein BDLF2 plays a major role in intercellular viral spread in stratified epithelium. IMPORTANCE The ubiquitous herpesvirus Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is associated with cancers of B lymphocytes and epithelial cells and is primarily transmitted in saliva. While several models exist for analyzing the life cycle of EBV in B lymphocytes, models of EBV infection in the epithelium have more recently been established. Using an organotypic culture model of epithelium that we previously determined accurately reflects EBV infection in situ, we have ascertained that the loss of the viral envelope protein BDLF2 had little effect on the EBV life cycle in B cells but severely restricted the number of infected cells in organotypic cultures. Loss of BDLF2 has a substantial impact on the size of infected areas, suggesting that BDLF2 plays a specific role in the spread of infection in stratified epithelium.

The effects of reduced nicotine content cigarettes on biomarkers of nicotine and toxicant exposure, smoking behavior and psychiatric symptoms in smokers with mood or anxiety disorders: A double-blind randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the government of New Zealand have proposed a reduction of the nicotine content in cigarettes to very low levels. This study examined the potential effects of this regulation in smokers with affective disorders. METHODS: In a randomized controlled parallel group trial conducted at two sites in the USA (Penn State University, Hershey, PA and Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA) 188 adult smokers with a current (n = 118) or lifetime (n = 70) anxiety or unipolar mood disorder, not planning to quit in the next 6 months, were randomly assigned (1:1) to smoke either Usual Nicotine Content (UNC) (11.6 mg nicotine/cigarette) research cigarettes, or Reduced Nicotine Content (RNC) research cigarettes where the nicotine content per cigarette was progressively reduced to 0.2 mg in five steps over 18 weeks. Participants were then offered the choice to either receive assistance to quit smoking, receive free research cigarettes, or resume using their own cigarette brand during a 12-week follow-up period. Main outcomes were biomarkers of nicotine and toxicant exposure, smoking behavior and dependence and severity of psychiatric symptoms. The pre-registered primary outcome was plasma cotinine. RESULTS: A total of 143 (76.1%) randomized participants completed the randomized phase of the trial, 69 (73.4%) in the RNC group and 74 (78.8%) in the UNC group. After switching to the lowest nicotine content cigarettes, compared to smokers in the UNC group, at the last randomized visit the RNC group had significantly lower plasma cotinine (metabolite of nicotine): difference between groups, -175.7, 95% CI [-218.3, -133.1] ng/ml. Urine NNAL (metabolite of NNK, a lung carcinogen), exhaled carbon-monoxide, cigarette consumption, and cigarette dependence were also significantly lower in the RNC group than the UNC group. No between-group differences were found on a range of other biomarkers (e.g. 8-isoprostanes) or health indicators (e.g. blood pressure), or on 5 different psychiatric questionnaires, including the Kessler K6 measure of psychological distress. At the end of the subsequent 12-week treatment choice phase, those randomized to the RNC group were more likely to have quit smoking, based on initial intent-to-treat sample, n = 188 (18.1% RNC v 4.3% UNC, p = 0.004). CONCLUSION: Reducing nicotine content in cigarettes to very low levels reduces some toxicant exposures and cigarette addiction and increases smoking cessation in smokers with mood and/or anxiety disorders, without worsening mental health. TRIAL REGISTRATION: TRN: NCT01928758, registered August 21, 2013.

Effect of menthol on nicotine reduction: Pooled results from two double-blind randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Menthol upregulates nicotinic acetylcholine receptors and is associated with tobacco dependence. The effects of menthol when smoking cigarettes with varying low nicotine content up to 98 % (e.g., non-addicting) less than commercial cigarettes is not well understood. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is considering two tobacco product standards in cigarettes including banning menthol and reducing nicotine content. These new standards have the potential to significantly reduce smoking initiation and maintenance by limiting the mechanistic effects of nicotine and menthol on the brain. METHODS: We conducted two parallel randomized clinical trials of gradually reduced nicotine in cigarettes from 11.6 mg down to 0.2 mg nicotine/cigarette (very low nicotine content; VLNC) vs. usual nicotine content (11.6 mg; UNC) over an 18-week period in people who smoke cigarettes with low socioeconomic status (SES) and mental health conditions. RESULTS: Compared to UNC, VLNC was associated with significant reductions in cotinine, cigarettes per day, expired carbon monoxide levels, nicotine dependence and symptomology. These associations did not differ between menthol and non-menthol cigarettes, except people who smoke menthol cigarettes had less of a cotinine reduction in the SES trial. The pooled odds ratio of being adherent with using only VLNC study cigarettes in the gradual nicotine reduction arm for people who smoke non-menthol vs. menthol cigarettes was 2.6 (95 % CI:1.0, 6.4; p-value: 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: When nicotine is lowered to non-addicting levels, the results indicate an independent effect of menthol on the need to sustain nicotine intake in addicted people who smoke cigarettes.

A hybrid design for dose-finding oncology clinical trials.

Identifying the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) and recommending a Phase II dose for an investigational treatment is crucial in cancer drug development. A suboptimal dose often leads to a failed late-stage trial, while an overly toxic dose causes harm to patients. There is a very rich literature on trial designs for dose-finding oncology clinical trials. We propose a novel hybrid design that maximizes the merits and minimizes the limitations of the existing designs. Building on two existing dose-finding designs: a model-assisted design (the modified toxicity probability interval) and a dose-toxicity model-based design, a hybrid design of the modified toxicity probability interval design and a dose-toxicity model such as the logistic regression model is proposed, incorporating optimal properties from these existing approaches. The performance of the hybrid design was tested in a real trial example and through simulation scenarios. The hybrid design controlled the overdosing toxicity well and led to a recommended dose closer to the true MTD due to its ability to calibrate for an intermediate dose. The robust performance of the proposed hybrid design is illustrated through the real trial dataset and simulations. The simulation results demonstrated that the proposed hybrid design can achieve excellent and robust operating characteristics compared to other existing designs and can be an effective model for determining the MTD and recommended Phase II dose in oncology dose-finding trials. For practical feasibility, an R-shiny tool was developed and is freely available to guide clinicians in every step of the dose finding process.

Epigenetic Silencing of PTEN and Epi-Transcriptional Silencing of MDM2 Underlied Progression to Secondary Acute Myeloid Leukemia in Myelodysplastic Syndrome Treated with Hypomethylating Agents.

In myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), resistance to hypomethylating agents (HMA) portends a poor prognosis, underscoring the importance of understanding the molecular mechanisms leading to HMA-resistance. In this study, P39 and Kasumi-1 cells and their azacitidine-resistant and decitabine-resistant sublines were evaluated comparatively with transcriptomic and methylomic analyses. Expression profiling and genome-wide methylation microarray showed downregulation of PTEN associated with DNA hypermethylation in P39 cell lines resistant to azacitidine and decitabine. This pattern of PTEN dysregulation was also confirmed in a cohort of patients failing treatment with HMA. DNA hypomethylation of MDM2 was detected with downregulation of MDM2 in HMA resistant cell lines. Long-read sequencing revealed significant RNA hypomethylation of MDM2 resulting in alternative splicing and production of a truncated MDM2 transcript in azacitidine-resistant P39 cells. The expression of this MDM2 truncated transcript was also significantly increased in HMA-resistant patients compared with HMA-responsive patients. In conclusion, epigenetic and epi-transcriptomic dysregulation of PTEN and MDM2 were associated with resistance to hypomethylating agents.

Evaluating electronic cigarette cytotoxicity and inflammatory responses in vitro.

INTRODUCTION: Cigarette smoking poses many health risks and can cause chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cardiovascular disease, cancer of the lung and other organs. Smokers can substantially reduce their risks of these diseases by quitting, but nicotine addiction makes this difficult. Alternatives, such as electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes), may provide a similar dose of nicotine, but expose users to fewer toxic chemicals than traditional cigarettes and may still be harmful especially for dual users, therefore, we sought to develop bioassays that can assess the potential toxicity and inflammatory response induced by e-cigarette liquids (e-liquids) with and without flavors. METHODS: E-liquids with varying nicotine content and flavors were aerosolized through growth media and exposed to human bronchial epithelial cell line (BEAS-2B) and human monocyte-macrophage cell line (THP-1) in vitro. Cytotoxicity in response to e-cigarette aerosols was measured by MTT assay in BEAS-2B cells and inflammatory response was measured by TNF-α, IL-6, IL-8, and MCP-1 released from THP-1 cells. In addition, the oxidative stress marker, REDD1, and impact on phagocytosis, was assessed following exposure of BEAS-2B and THP-1 derived macrophages, respectively. Cigarette smoke extract was used as a positive control with known cytotoxicity and impairment of inflammatory response. RESULTS: E-cigarette aerosols induced moderate cellular toxicity in bronchial epithelial cells. Our data also show that low nicotine levels are less damaging to the bronchial epithelial cells, and flavors in e-liquids influence the combined inflammatory response markers, phagocytosis, and REDD1 when examined in vitro. CONCLUSIONS: Our in vitro bioassays can be utilized to effectively measure flavor and nicotine-induced effects of e-cigarettes on combined inflammatory response and cytotoxicity in human macrophages and human bronchial epithelial cells, respectively.

Mixture survival trees for cancer risk classification.

In oncology studies, it is important to understand and characterize disease heterogeneity among patients so that patients can be classified into different risk groups and one can identify high-risk patients at the right time. This information can then be used to identify a more homogeneous patient population for developing precision medicine. In this paper, we propose a mixture survival tree approach for direct risk classification. We assume that the patients can be classified into a pre-specified number of risk groups, where each group has distinct survival profile. Our proposed tree-based methods are devised to estimate latent group membership using an EM algorithm. The observed data log-likelihood function is used as the splitting criterion in recursive partitioning. The finite sample performance is evaluated by extensive simulation studies and the proposed method is illustrated by a case study in breast cancer.

Clinical Experience with Ropeginterferon Alfa-2b in the Off-Label Use for the Treatment of COVID-19 Patients in Taiwan.

INTRODUCTION: This study, for the first time to our knowledge, evaluated the efficacy of ropeginterferon alfa-2b, a long-acting pegylated interferon (IFN)-alfa, in the treatment of COVID-19. METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated ropeginterferon alfa-2b administered subcutaneously at a single dose of 250 µg for the treatment of mild and moderate COVID-19. Primary outcome was to compare the overall negative conversion time from the confirmed, last positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR to the first RT-PCR negative conversion between patients receiving ropeginterferon alfa-2b plus standard of care (SOC) and those receiving SOC alone. RESULTS: Thirty-five patients with mild COVID-19 and 37 patients with moderate disease were included. Of them, 19 patients received SOC plus ropeginterferon alfa-2b and 53 patients received SOC alone. All patients with moderate disease in the ropeginterferon alfa-2b group showed RT-PCR negative conversion within 8 days, while a significant portion of patients in the SOC alone group failed to do so. For patients with moderate disease and age ≤ 65 years old, the ropeginterferon alfa-2b group had statistically significant shorter median RT-PCR conversion time than the SOC alone group (7 vs. 11.5 days, p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Ropeginterferon alfa-2b showed the potential for the treatment of moderate COVID-19 patients. A randomized, controlled Phase III study is planned to further assess the effectiveness of ropeginterferon alfa-2b in COVID-19 patients.

Pembrolizumab plus pomalidomide and dexamethasone for relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma (KEYNOTE-183): subgroup analysis in Japanese patients.

The global, randomized, open-label KEYNOTE-183 phase 3 study was closed early after an interim analysis showed unfavorable risk-benefit when pembrolizumab was added to pomalidomide and dexamethasone in patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma (MM). This subgroup analysis reported outcomes in 27 Japanese patients randomly assigned to receive pembrolizumab plus pomalidomide and dexamethasone (n = 15) or pomalidomide and dexamethasone alone (n = 12). Co-primary endpoints were progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). After a median (range) follow-up of 9.6 (1.4-15.3) months in Japanese patients, median PFS [6.5 vs 2.8 months; hazard ratio (HR) 0.16 (95% CI 0.03-0.83)] and OS [not reached vs 14.8 months; HR 0.46 (95% CI 0.05-4.20)] seemed to favor the pembrolizumab plus pomalidomide and dexamethasone arm. Objective response rate was numerically higher in this group (47%) than in the pomalidomide and dexamethasone group (25%). The safety profile was consistent with that of the overall study population. No deaths were attributed to a study drug by the investigators. Although adding pembrolizumab to pomalidomide and dexamethasone did not show unfavorable risk-benefit in the Japanese subgroup of KEYNOTE-183, the analysis is limited by short follow-up and small sample size, which affects the generalizability of the results.

Inferring latent heterogeneity using many feature variables supervised by survival outcome.

In cancer studies, it is important to understand disease heterogeneity among patients so that precision medicine can particularly target high-risk patients at the right time. Many feature variables such as demographic variables and biomarkers, combined with a patient's survival outcome, can be used to infer such latent heterogeneity. In this work, we propose a mixture model to model each patient's latent survival pattern, where the mixing probabilities for latent groups are modeled through a multinomial distribution. The Bayesian information criterion is used for selecting the number of latent groups. Furthermore, we incorporate variable selection with the adaptive lasso into inference so that only a few feature variables will be selected to characterize the latent heterogeneity. We show that our adaptive lasso estimator has oracle properties when the number of parameters diverges with the sample size. The finite sample performance is evaluated by the simulation study, and the proposed method is illustrated by two datasets.

Assessing the impact of PCSK9 inhibition on coronary plaque phenotype with optical coherence tomography: rationale and design of the randomized, placebo-controlled HUYGENS study.

BACKGROUND: Technological advances in arterial wall imaging permit the opportunity to visualize coronary atherosclerotic plaque with sufficient resolution to characterize both its burden and compositional phenotype. These modalities have been used extensively in clinical trials to evaluate the impact of lipid lowering therapies on serial changes in disease burden. While the findings have unequivocally established that these interventions have the capacity to either slow disease progression or promote plaque regression, depending on the degree of lipid lowering achieved, their impact on plaque phenotype is less certain. More recently optical coherence tomography (OCT) has been employed with a number of studies demonstrating favorable effects on both fibrous cap thickness (FCT) and the size of lipid pools within plaque in response to statin treatment. METHODS: The phase 3, multi-center, double-blind HUYGENS study will assess the impact of incremental lipid lowering with the proprotein convertase subtilisin kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitor, evolocumab, on plaque features using serial OCT imaging, in statin-treated patients following an acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Subjects with non-ST-elevation ACS (n=150) will be randomized 1:1 into two groups to receive monthly injections of evolocumab 420 mg or placebo. RESULTS: The primary endpoint is the effect of evolocumab on coronary atherosclerotic plaques will be assessed by OCT at baseline and at week 50. CONCLUSIONS: The HUYGENS study will determine whether intensified lipid lowering therapy with evolocumab in addition to maximally tolerated statin therapy will have incremental benefits on high-risk features of coronary artery plaques. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study was registered on Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03570697).

Switching to Progressively Reduced Nicotine Content Cigarettes in Smokers With Low Socioeconomic Status: A Double-Blind Randomized Clinical Trial.

INTRODUCTION: The Food and Drug Administration issued an advanced notice of proposed rulemaking for setting a product standard for nicotine levels in cigarettes, with an emphasis on minimally or non-addicting very low nicotine content (VLNC). METHODS: A 33 week, two-arm, double-blind randomized trial conducted in Hershey, Pennsylvania, USA and Washington, DC, USA included adult daily cigarette smokers (≥5 cigarettes per day) with less than a college degree, and who had no plans to quit within the next six months. Participants were randomized to either reduced nicotine content (RNC) study cigarettes tapered every three weeks to a final VLNC (0.2 mg/cigarette) for six weeks or to usual nicotine content (UNC) study cigarettes (11.6 mg/cigarette). Outcomes included acceptability of study cigarettes measured by attrition (primary outcome), compliance, reduction in cigarette dependence and tobacco biomarkers, and post-intervention cessation. RESULTS: The RNC (n = 122) versus UNC (n = 123) group had higher attrition (adjusted Hazard Ratio 3.4; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.99 to 5.81). At the end of the intervention, cotinine levels were 50% lower in the RNC group (mean group difference -137 ng/mL; 95% CI -172, -102). The RNC group smoked fewer CPD (-4.1; 95% CI -6.44, -1.75) and had lower carbon monoxide levels (-4.0 ppm; 95% CI -7.7, -0.4). Forty seven percent (29/62) of the RNC group were biochemically-confirmed compliant with smoking VLNC cigarettes (mean cotinine = 8.9 ng/ml). At three month follow-up, only compliant VLNC smokers quit with an assisted quit attempt (N = 6/22, 27%). CONCLUSIONS: This study supports a VLNC standard in cigarettes. IMPLICATIONS: Differential dropout and noncompliance indicate some smokers had difficulty transitioning to cigarettes with reduced nicotine. These smokers will benefit from supplemental nicotine in medicinal or noncombustible tobacco products if a nicotine reduction standard is established. Other smokers successfully transitioned to very low nicotine content cigarettes exclusively and substantially reduced their exposure to nicotine.

Using artificial intelligence tools in answering important clinical questions: The KEYNOTE-183 multiple myeloma experience.

The phase III, randomized, active-controlled, multicenter, open-label KEYNOTE-183 study (NCT02576977) evaluating pomalidomide and low dose dexamethasone (standard-of-care [SOC]) with or without pembrolizumab in patients with refractory or relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma (rrMM) was placed on full clinical hold by the US FDA on July 03, 2017 due to an imbalance in the number of deaths between arms. Clinically-led subgroup analyses are typically used to shed light on clinical findings. However, this approach is not always successful. We propose a systematic approach using the artificial intelligence tools to identifying risk factors and subgroups contributing to the overall death (prognostic) or to the excess death observed in the pembrolizumab plus SOC arm (predictive) of the KEYNOTE-183 study. In KEYNOTE-183, with a data cutoff date of June 02, 2017, we identified plasmacytoma as a prognostic factor, and ECOG performance status as a predictive factor of death. In addition, a qualitative interaction was observed between ECOG performance status and the treatment arm. The subsequent subgroup analysis based on ECOG performance status confirmed that more deaths were associated with pembrolizumab plus SOC versus SOC alone in patients with ECOG performance status 1.

Pembrolizumab plus lenalidomide and dexamethasone in treatment-naive multiple myeloma (KEYNOTE-185): subgroup analysis in Japanese patients.

The global, randomized, open-label KEYNOTE-185 study closed early after an interim analysis showed an unfavorable benefit-risk profile with pembrolizumab plus lenalidomide and low-dose dexamethasone (Rd) versus Rd alone in treatment-naive, transplant-ineligible multiple myeloma. This subgroup analysis reported outcomes in the Japanese population. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to pembrolizumab plus Rd or Rd alone, stratified by age and International Staging System. The primary end point was progression-free survival (PFS). Fifty-two Japanese patients were randomly assigned to pembrolizumab plus Rd (n = 27) or Rd (n = 25). The median follow-up was 7.2 months (range, 0.4-13.8). The median PFS was not reached (NR); 6-month PFS was 91.2% versus 86.2% with pembrolizumab plus Rd versus Rd [hazard ratio (HR), 0.31; 95% CI, 0.06-1.63]. The median overall survival (OS) was NR; 6-month OS was 96.2% versus 95.7% with pembrolizumab plus Rd versus Rd (HR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.03-3.72). With pembrolizumab plus Rd versus Rd, grade 3-5 adverse events occurred in 70.4% versus 69.6% of patients; serious adverse events occurred in 40.7% versus 52.5%. Although in the Japanese subgroup of KEYNOTE-185 adding pembrolizumab to Rd did not show an unfavorable risk-benefit, the analysis is limited by short follow-up and small sample size, affecting generalizability of the results.

Dynamic RMST curves for survival analysis in clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: The data from immuno-oncology (IO) therapy trials often show delayed effects, cure rate, crossing hazards, or some mixture of these phenomena. Thus, the proportional hazards (PH) assumption is often violated such that the commonly used log-rank test can be very underpowered. In these trials, the conventional hazard ratio for describing the treatment effect may not be a good estimand due to the lack of an easily understandable interpretation. To overcome this challenge, restricted mean survival time (RMST) has been strongly recommended for survival analysis in clinical literature due to its independence of the PH assumption as well as a more clinically meaningful interpretation. The RMST also aligns well with the estimand associated with the analysis from the recommendation in ICH E-9 (R1), and the test/estimation coherency. Currently, the Kaplan Meier (KM) curve is commonly applied to RMST related analyses. Due to some drawbacks of the KM approach such as the limitation in extrapolating to time points beyond the follow-up time, and the large variance at time points with small numbers of events, the RMST may be hindered. METHODS: The dynamic RMST curve using a mixture model is proposed in this paper to fully enhance the RMST method for survival analysis in clinical trials. It is constructed that the RMST difference or ratio is computed over a range of values to the restriction time τ which traces out an evolving treatment effect profile over time. RESULTS: This new dynamic RMST curve overcomes the drawbacks from the KM approach. The good performance of this proposal is illustrated through three real examples. CONCLUSIONS: The RMST provides a clinically meaningful and easily interpretable measure for survival clinical trials. The proposed dynamic RMST approach provides a useful tool for assessing treatment effect over different time frames for survival clinical trials. This dynamic RMST curve also allows ones for checking whether the follow-up time for a study is long enough to demonstrate a treatment difference. The prediction feature of the dynamic RMST analysis may be used for determining an appropriate time point for an interim analysis, and the data monitoring committee (DMC) can use this evaluation tool for study recommendation.