Simulating urban expansion and its impact on functional connectivity in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.

Understanding the impact of urban expansion on functional connectivity is significant to biodiversity conservation. Particularly, in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA, Southwest China), the urban land has rapidly expanded to provide settlements for an enormous population of TGRA migrants. However, the consequence of future land-use changes to the functional connectivity of the local habitat network has rarely been studied. To extend this knowledge, this paper proposes a framework that integrates a novel cellular automata (CA) simulation model and ecological network analysis, taking the TGRA as the study area, to predict how different urban expansion scenarios might affect functional connectivity for a nationally protected species, the leopard. The least-cost path modeling is used, and a set of connectivity indicators are adopted to evaluate functional connectivity. The results show that, the population-growth-based urban expansion maintains a higher connectivity than the business-as-usual and fast-urban-growth scenarios. In addition, the connectivity loss due to urban expansion can be offset by the reforestation efforts of the Green-for-Grain Project. Finally, we identify habitat patches that act as key connectivity providers, and suggest that those patches be prioritized for protection to avoid significant connectivity loss.

[Risk factors for congenital anal atresia].

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the risk factors for the development of congenital anal atresia in neonates. METHODS: A total of 70 neonates who were admitted to 17 hospitals in Foshan, China from January 2011 to December 2014 were enrolled as case group, and another 70 neonates who were hospitalized during the same period and had no anal atresia or other severe deformities were enrolled as control group. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to investigate the risk factors for the development of congenital anal atresia. RESULTS: The univariate analysis revealed that the age of mothers, presence of oral administration of folic acid, infection during early pregnancy, and polyhydramnios, and sex of neonates showed significant differences between the case and control groups (P<0.05). The multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that infection during early pregnancy (OR=18.776) and male neonates (OR=9.304) were risk factors for congenital anal atresia, and oral administration of folic acid during early pregnancy was the protective factor (OR=0.086). CONCLUSIONS: Infection during early pregnancy is the risk factor for congenital anal atresia, and male neonates are more likely to develop congenital anal atresia than female neonates. Supplementation of folic acid during early pregnancy can reduce the risk of congenital anal atresia.