Prolonged mass azithromycin distributions and macrolide resistance determinants among preschool children in Niger: A sub-study of a cluster-randomized trial (MORDOR).

BACKGROUND: Randomized controlled trials found that twice-yearly mass azithromycin administration (MDA) reduces childhood mortality, presumably by reducing infection burden. World Health Organization (WHO) issued conditional guidelines for mass azithromycin administration in high-mortality settings in sub-Saharan Africa given concerns for antibiotic resistance. While prolonged twice-yearly MDA has been shown to increase antibiotic resistance in small randomized controlled trials, the objective of this study was to determine if macrolide and non-macrolide resistance in the gut increases with the duration of azithromycin MDA in a larger setting. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The Macrolide Oraux pour Réduire les Décès avec un Oeil sur la Résistance (MORDOR) study was conducted in Niger from December 2014 to June 2020. It was a cluster-randomized trial of azithromycin (A) versus placebo (P) aimed at evaluating childhood mortality. This is a sub-study in the MORDOR trial to track changes in antibiotic resistance after prolonged azithromycin MDA. A total of 594 communities were eligible. Children 1 to 59 months in 163 randomly chosen communities were eligible to receive treatment and included in resistance monitoring. Participants, staff, and investigators were masked to treatment allocation. At the conclusion of MORDOR Phase I, by design, all communities received an additional year of twice-yearly azithromycin treatments (Phase II). Thus, at the conclusion of Phase II, the treatment history (1 letter per 6-month period) for the participating communities was either (PP-PP-AA) or (AA-AA-AA). In Phase III, participating communities were then re-randomized to receive either another 3 rounds of azithromycin or placebo, thus resulting in 4 treatment histories: Group 1 (AA-AA-AA-AA-A, N = 51), Group 2 (PP-PP-AA-AA-A, N = 40), Group 3 (AA-AA-AA-PP-P, N = 27), and Group 4 (PP-PP-AA-PP-P, N = 32). Rectal swabs from each child (N = 5,340) were obtained 6 months after the last treatment. Each child contributed 1 rectal swab and these were pooled at the community level, processed for DNA-seq, and analyzed for genetic resistance determinants. The primary prespecified outcome was macrolide resistance determinants in the gut. Secondary outcomes were resistance to beta-lactams and other antibiotic classes. Communities recently randomized to azithromycin (groups 1 and 2) had significantly more macrolide resistance determinants than those recently randomized to placebo (groups 3 and 4) (fold change 2.18, 95% CI 1.5 to 3.51, Punadj < 0.001). However, there was no significant increase in macrolide resistance in communities treated 4.5 years (group 1) compared to just the most recent 2.5 years (group 2) (fold change 0.80, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.00, Padj = 0.010), or between communities that had been treated for 3 years in the past (group 3) versus just 1 year in the past (group 4) (fold change 1.00, 95% CI 0.78 to 2.35, Padj = 0.52). We also found no significant differences for beta-lactams or other antibiotic classes. The main limitations of our study were the absence of phenotypic characterization of resistance, no complete placebo arm, and no monitoring outside of Niger limiting generalizability. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that mass azithromycin distribution for childhood mortality among preschool children in Niger increased macrolide resistance determinants in the gut but that resistance may plateau after 2 to 3 years of treatment. Co-selection to other classes needs to be monitored. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02047981 https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02047981.

Assessment of spillover of antimicrobial resistance to untreated children 7 to 12 years old after mass drug administration of azithromycin for child survival in Niger: a secondary analysis of the MORDOR cluster-randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: The risk of antibiotic resistance is complicated by the potential for spillover effects from one treated population to another. Azithromycin mass drug administration programs report higher rates of antibiotic resistance among treatment arms in targeted groups. This study aims to understand the risk of spillover of antibiotic resistance to non-target groups in these programs. METHODS: Data was used from a cluster-randomized trial comparing the effect of biannual azithromycin and placebo distribution to children 1-59 months on child mortality. Nasopharyngeal samples from untreated children 7-12 years old were tested for genetic determinants of macrolide resistance (primary outcome) and resistance to other antibiotic classes (secondary outcomes). Linear regression was used to compare the community-level mean difference in prevalence by arm at the 24-month timepoint adjusting for baseline prevalence. RESULTS: 1,103 children 7-12 years old in 30 communities were included in the analysis (15 azithromycin, 15 placebo). Adjusted mean differences in prevalence of resistance determinants for macrolides, beta-lactams and tetracyclines were 3.4% (95% CI -4.1% to 10.8%, P-value 0.37), -1.2% (95% CI -7.9% to 5.5%, P-value 0.72), and -3.3% (95% CI -9.5% to 2.8%, P-value 0.61), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We were unable to demonstrate a statistically significant increase in macrolide resistance determinants in untreated groups in an azithromycin mass drug administration program. While the result might be consistent with a small spillover effect, this study was not powered to detect such a small difference. Larger studies are warranted to better understand the potential for spillover effects within these programs.

Neonatal anthropometric indicators of infant growth and mortality in Burkina Faso.

OBJECTIVE: Most evidence supporting screening for undernutrition is for children aged 6-59 months. However, the highest risk of mortality and highest incidence of wasting occurs in the first 6 months of life. We evaluated relationships between neonatal anthropometric indicators, including birth weight, weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ), weight-for-length Z-score (WLZ), length-for-age Z-score (LAZ) and mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) and mortality and growth at 6 months of age among infants in Burkina Faso. DESIGN: Data arose from a randomised controlled trial evaluating neonatal azithromycin administration for the prevention of child mortality. We evaluated relationships between baseline anthropometric measures and mortality, wasting (WLZ < -2), stunting (LAZ < -2) and underweight (WAZ < -2) at 6 months of age were estimated using logistic regression models adjusted for the child's age and sex. SETTING: Five regions of Burkina Faso. PARTICIPANTS: Infants aged 8-27 d followed until 6 months of age. RESULTS: Of 21 832 infants enrolled in the trial, 7·9 % were low birth weight (<2500 g), 13·3 % were wasted, 7·7 % were stunted and 7·4 % were underweight at enrolment. All anthropometric deficits were associated with mortality by 6 months of age, with WAZ the strongest predictor (WAZ < -2 to ≥ -3 at enrolment v. WAZ ≥ -2: adjusted OR, 3·91, 95 % CI, 2·21, 6·56). Low WAZ was also associated with wasting, stunting, and underweight at 6 months. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions for identifying infants at highest risk of mortality and growth failure should consider WAZ as part of their screening protocol.

District-Level Forecast of Achieving Trachoma Elimination as a Public Health Problem By 2030: An Ensemble Modelling Approach.

Assessing the feasibility of 2030 as a target date for global elimination of trachoma, and identification of districts that may require enhanced treatment to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination criteria by this date are key challenges in operational planning for trachoma programmes. Here we address these challenges by prospectively evaluating forecasting models of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence, leveraging ensemble-based approaches. Seven candidate probabilistic models were developed to forecast district-wise TF prevalence in 11 760 districts, trained using district-level data on the population prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years from 2004 to 2022. Geographical location, history of mass drug administration treatment, and previously measured prevalence data were included in these models as key predictors. The best-performing models were included in an ensemble, using weights derived from their relative likelihood scores. To incorporate the inherent stochasticity of disease transmission and challenges of population-level surveillance, we forecasted probability distributions for the TF prevalence in each geographic district, rather than predicting a single value. Based on our probabilistic forecasts, 1.46% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43-1.48%) of all districts in trachoma-endemic countries, equivalent to 172 districts, will exceed the 5% TF control threshold in 2030 with the current interventions. Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2030 may require enhanced intervention and/or surveillance of high-risk districts.

Efficacy of Single-Dose Azithromycin for Ocular Chlamydial Infection: A Longitudinal Study.

Millions of doses of azithromycin are distributed each year for trachoma, yet the treatment efficacy of a single dose of azithromycin for ocular Chlamydia infection has not been well characterized. In this study, four villages in Niger received a mass azithromycin distribution for trachoma. All 426 children aged 0-5 years residing in the study villages were offered conjunctival swabbing every 6 months to test for ocular Chlamydia trachomatis. Among the children infected with ocular Chlamydia before treatment, 6% (95% CI: 2-15%) tested positive for ocular Chlamydia infection 6 months later, and 15% (95% CI: 7-28%) tested positive 12 months later. The most important predictor of post-treatment ocular Chlamydia infection was pretreatment ocular Chlamydia infection (relative risk: 3.5, 95% CI: 1.3-9.4). Although the 6-monthly monitoring schedule was suboptimal for testing the treatment efficacy of an antibiotic, these findings are nonetheless consistent with high treatment efficacy of a single dose of azithromycin and suggest that additional interventions might be most effective if targeted to those children infected prior to treatment.

Locality is the strongest predictor of expert performance in image-based differentiation of bacterial and fungal corneal ulcers from India.

PURPOSE: This study sought to identify the sources of differential performance and misclassification error among local (Indian) and external (non-Indian) corneal specialists in identifying bacterial and fungal keratitis based on corneal photography. METHODS: This study is a secondary analysis of survey data assessing the ability of corneal specialists to identify acute bacterial versus fungal keratitis by using corneal photography. One-hundred images of 100 eyes from 100 patients with acute bacterial or fungal keratitis in South India were previously presented to an international cohort of cornea specialists for interpretation over the span of April to July 2021. Each expert provided a predicted probability that the ulcer was either bacterial or fungal. Using these data, we performed multivariable linear regression to identify factors predictive of expert performance, accounting for primary practice location and surrogate measures to infer local fungal ulcer prevalence, including locality, latitude, and dew point. In addition, Brier score decomposition was used to determine experts' reliability ("calibration") and resolution ("boldness") and were compared between local (Indian) and external (non-Indian) experts. RESULTS: Sixty-six experts from 16 countries participated. Indian practice location was the only independently significant predictor of performance in multivariable linear regression. Resolution among Indian experts was significantly better (0.08) than among non-Indian experts (0.01; P < 0.001), indicating greater confidence in their predictions. There was no significant difference in reliability between the two groups ( P = 0.40). CONCLUSION: Local cornea experts outperformed their international counterparts independent of regional variability in tropical risk factors for fungal keratitis. This may be explained by regional characteristics of infectious ulcers with which local corneal specialists are familiar.

Use of Large Language Models to Assess the Likelihood of Epidemics From the Content of Tweets: Infodemiology Study.

BACKGROUND: Previous work suggests that Google searches could be useful in identifying conjunctivitis epidemics. Content-based assessment of social media content may provide additional value in serving as early indicators of conjunctivitis and other systemic infectious diseases. OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether large language models, specifically GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 (OpenAI), can provide probabilistic assessments of whether social media posts about conjunctivitis could indicate a regional outbreak. METHODS: A total of 12,194 conjunctivitis-related tweets were obtained using a targeted Boolean search in multiple languages from India, Guam (United States), Martinique (France), the Philippines, American Samoa (United States), Fiji, Costa Rica, Haiti, and the Bahamas, covering the time frame from January 1, 2012, to March 13, 2023. By providing these tweets via prompts to GPT-3.5 and GPT-4, we obtained probabilistic assessments that were validated by 2 human raters. We then calculated Pearson correlations of these time series with tweet volume and the occurrence of known outbreaks in these 9 locations, with time series bootstrap used to compute CIs. RESULTS: Probabilistic assessments derived from GPT-3.5 showed correlations of 0.60 (95% CI 0.47-0.70) and 0.53 (95% CI 0.40-0.65) with the 2 human raters, with higher results for GPT-4. The weekly averages of GPT-3.5 probabilities showed substantial correlations with weekly tweet volume for 44% (4/9) of the countries, with correlations ranging from 0.10 (95% CI 0.0-0.29) to 0.53 (95% CI 0.39-0.89), with larger correlations for GPT-4. More modest correlations were found for correlation with known epidemics, with substantial correlation only in American Samoa (0.40, 95% CI 0.16-0.81). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that GPT prompting can efficiently assess the content of social media posts and indicate possible disease outbreaks to a degree of accuracy comparable to that of humans. Furthermore, we found that automated content analysis of tweets is related to tweet volume for conjunctivitis-related posts in some locations and to the occurrence of actual epidemics. Future work may improve the sensitivity and specificity of these methods for disease outbreak detection.

Mass Azithromycin Distribution to Prevent Child Mortality in Burkina Faso: The CHAT Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Repeated mass distribution of azithromycin has been shown to reduce childhood mortality by 14% in sub-Saharan Africa. However, the estimated effect varied by location, suggesting that the intervention may not be effective in different geographical areas, time periods, or conditions. Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of twice-yearly azithromycin to reduce mortality in children in the presence of seasonal malaria chemoprevention. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cluster randomized placebo-controlled trial evaluating the efficacy of single-dose azithromycin for prevention of all-cause childhood mortality included 341 communities in the Nouna district in rural northwestern Burkina Faso. Participants were children aged 1 to 59 months living in the study communities. Interventions: Communities were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to receive oral azithromycin or placebo distribution. Children aged 1 to 59 months were offered single-dose treatment twice yearly for 3 years (6 distributions) from August 2019 to February 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was all-cause childhood mortality, measured during a twice-yearly enumerative census. Results: A total of 34 399 children (mean [SD] age, 25.2 [18] months) in the azithromycin group and 33 847 children (mean [SD] age, 25.6 [18] months) in the placebo group were included. A mean (SD) of 90.1% (16.0%) of the censused children received the scheduled study drug in the azithromycin group and 89.8% (17.1%) received the scheduled study drug in the placebo group. In the azithromycin group, 498 deaths were recorded over 60 592 person-years (8.2 deaths/1000 person-years). In the placebo group, 588 deaths were recorded over 58 547 person-years (10.0 deaths/1000 person-years). The incidence rate ratio for mortality was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.67-1.02; P = .07) in the azithromycin group compared with the placebo group. The incidence rate ratio was 0.99 (95% CI, 0.72-1.36) in those aged 1 to 11 months, 0.92 (95% CI, 0.67-1.27) in those aged 12 to 23 months, and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.57-0.94) in those aged 24 to 59 months. Conclusions and Relevance: Mortality in children (aged 1-59 months) was lower with biannual mass azithromycin distribution in a setting in which seasonal malaria chemoprevention was also being distributed, but the difference was not statistically significant. The study may have been underpowered to detect a clinically relevant difference. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03676764.

Single-dose azithromycin for infant growth in Burkina Faso: Prespecified secondary anthropometric outcomes from a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotic use during early infancy has been linked to childhood obesity in high-income countries. We evaluated whether a single oral dose of azithromycin administered during infant-well visits led to changes in infant growth outcomes at 6 months of age in a setting with a high prevalence of undernutrition in rural Burkina Faso. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Infants were enrolled from September 25, 2019, until October 22, 2022, in a randomized controlled trial designed to evaluate the efficacy of a single oral dose of azithromycin (20 mg/kg) compared to placebo when administered during well-child visits for prevention of infant mortality. The trial found no evidence of a difference in the primary endpoint. This paper presents prespecified secondary anthropometric endpoints including weight gain (g/day), height change (mm/day), weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ), weight-for-length Z-score (WLZ), length-for-age Z-score (LAZ), and mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC). Infants were eligible for the trial if they were between 5 and 12 weeks of age, able to orally feed, and their families were planning to remain in the study area for the duration of the study. Anthropometric measurements were collected at enrollment (5 to 12 weeks of age) and 6 months of age. Among 32,877 infants enrolled in the trial, 27,298 (83%) were followed and had valid anthropometric measurements at 6 months of age. We found no evidence of a difference in weight gain (mean difference 0.03 g/day, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.12 to 0.18), height change (mean difference 0.004 mm/day, 95% CI -0.05 to 0.06), WAZ (mean difference -0.004 SD, 95% CI -0.03 to 0.02), WLZ (mean difference 0.001 SD, 95% CI -0.03 to 0.03), LAZ (mean difference -0.005 SD, 95% CI -0.03 to 0.02), or MUAC (mean difference 0.01 cm, 95% CI -0.01 to 0.04). The primary limitation of the trial was that measurements were only collected at enrollment and 6 months of age, precluding assessment of shorter-term or long-term changes in growth. CONCLUSIONS: Single-dose azithromycin does not appear to affect weight and height outcomes when administered during early infancy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03676764.

Azithromycin during Routine Well-Infant Visits to Prevent Death.

BACKGROUND: Mass distribution of azithromycin to children 1 to 59 months of age has been shown to reduce childhood all-cause mortality in some sub-Saharan African regions, with the largest reduction seen among infants younger than 12 months of age. Whether the administration of azithromycin at routine health care visits for infants would be effective in preventing death is unclear. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, placebo-controlled trial of a single dose of azithromycin (20 mg per kilogram of body weight) as compared with placebo, administered during infancy (5 to 12 weeks of age). The primary end point was death before 6 months of age. Infants were recruited at routine vaccination or other well-child visits in clinics and through community outreach in three regions of Burkina Faso. Vital status was assessed at 6 months of age. RESULTS: Of the 32,877 infants enrolled from September 2019 through October 2022, a total of 16,416 infants were randomly assigned to azithromycin and 16,461 to placebo. Eighty-two infants in the azithromycin group and 75 infants in the placebo group died before 6 months of age (hazard ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 1.49; P = 0.58); the absolute difference in mortality was 0.04 percentage points (95% CI, -0.10 to 0.21). There was no evidence of an effect of azithromycin on mortality in any of the prespecified subgroups, including subgroups defined according to age, sex, and baseline weight, and no evidence of a difference between the two trial groups in the incidence of adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: In this trial conducted in Burkina Faso, we found that administration of azithromycin to infants through the existing health care system did not prevent death. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; CHAT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03676764.).

Gut Microbiome Diversity and Antimicrobial Resistance After a Single Dose of Oral Azithromycin in Children: A Randomized Placebo-Controlled Trial.

Mass antibiotic distribution to preschool children resulted in alterations of the gut microbiome months after distribution. This individually randomized, placebo-controlled trial evaluated changes in the gut microbiome and resistome in children aged 8 days to 59 months after one dose of oral azithromycin in Burkina Faso. A total of 450 children were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to either placebo or azithromycin. Rectal samples were collected at baseline, 2 weeks, and 6 months after randomization and subjected to DNA deep sequencing. Gut microbiome diversity and normalized antimicrobial resistance determinants for different antibiotic classes were evaluated. Azithromycin decreased gut bacterial diversity (Shannon P < 0.0001; inverse Simpson P < 0.001) 2 weeks after treatment relative to placebo. Concurrently, the normalized abundance of macrolide resistance genetic determinants was 243-fold higher (95% CI: 76-fold to 776-fold, P < 0.0001). These alterations did not persist at 6 months, suggesting that disruptions were transient. Furthermore, we were unable to detect resistance changes in other antibiotic classes, indicating that co-resistance with a single course of azithromycin when treated at the individual level was unlikely.

Descemet Endothelial Thickness Comparison Trial 1 (DETECT 1): outcome masked, placebo-controlled trial comparing two types of corneal transplant surgeries and effect of rho kinase inhibitors on endothelial cell loss protocol.

BACKGROUND: It remains uncertain which endothelial keratoplasty (EK) technique yields the best outcomes while maintaining safety, particularly in eyes with coexisting ocular conditions. Moreover, the impact of endothelial cell loss (ECL) on long-term graft survival requires further investigation. Adjuvant ripasudil, a rho kinase inhibitor, may address the challenge of ECL in corneal transplantation. This paper presents the protocol for the Descemet Endothelial Thickness Comparison Trial 1 (DETECT 1), a multicentre, outcome-masked, randomised, placebo-controlled, four-arm clinical trial. METHODS: A total of 160 eligible patients with endothelial dysfunction will be enrolled from five participating sites in the USA. The patients will be randomly assigned in a 2×2 factorial design to one of the following treatment groups: group 1-ultrathin Descemet stripping endothelial keratoplasty (UT-DSAEK) plus topical ripasudil 0.4%; group 2-UT-DSAEK plus topical placebo; group 3-Descemet membrane endothelial keratoplasty (DMEK) plus topical ripasudil 0.4% and group 4-DMEK plus topical placebo. Primary outcomes include the best spectacle-corrected visual acuity at 12 months and ECL at 12 months. Secondary outcomes include visual acuity at different time points, vision-related quality of life, endothelial cell morphology and cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: The study outcomes will be analysed using mixed effects linear regression models, taking into account the treatment arms and relevant covariates. Adverse events, including rebubble procedures, graft failure and graft rejection, will be documented and analysed using appropriate statistical methods. CONCLUSION: DETECT I aims to provide evidence on the comparative effectiveness of UT-DSAEK and DMEK, as well as the potential benefits of adjuvant topical ripasudil in reducing ECL. The results of this trial will contribute to optimising corneal transplantation techniques and improving long-term graft survival, while also exploring the cost-effectiveness of these interventions. Dissemination of findings through peer-reviewed publications and national/international meetings will facilitate knowledge translation and guide clinical practice in the field of corneal transplantation. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: A data and safety monitoring committee (DSMC) has been empaneled by the NEI.All study protocols will be subject to review and approval by WCG IRB as the single IRB of record.This study will comply with the National Institute of Health (NIH) Data Sharing Policy and Policy on the Dissemination of NIH-Funded Clinical Trial Information and the Clinical Trials Registration and Results Information Submission rule. Data from the trial will be made available on reasonable request.

Risk factors for corneal abrasions in Nepal: a community-based study.

BACKGROUND: South Asia is experiencing rapid urbanization, which may be changing the risk factor profile for ocular trauma. The objective of this study was to compare risk factors for traumatic corneal abrasions in rural versus urban Nepal, and to assess if any risk factors were associated with a poor outcome. METHODS: In a prospective, cross-sectional, community-based study performed as part of a cluster-randomized trial, community health workers from Nepal were trained to diagnose and treat traumatic corneal abrasions. Participants with an abrasion were invited to complete a risk factor survey. The main exposure variable was the object of eye injury, stratified by rural-urban residence. The main outcome measure was a lack of corneal healing after a three-day course of antimicrobials. RESULTS: Of 3657 participants diagnosed with a corneal abrasion, 2265 completed a survey. Eye trauma occurred most frequently during agricultural activities. The most common object of injury was vegetative matter, accounting for approximately 40% of injuries in rural, peri-urban, and urban communities. Wood injuries were more common in rural communities (24%) compared with urban or peri-urban communities (13%). Eye injury from an animal was more likely to result in a non-healing corneal abrasion after 3 days of treatment compared with other types of trauma (prevalence ratio 2.59, 95%CI 1.16-5.76). CONCLUSIONS: Health promotion activities for prevention of corneal ulcers in Nepal should focus on agricultural trauma in both rural and urban areas. Community members experiencing eye trauma from an animal may benefit from early referral to an eye clinic.

Validation of the C-DU(KE) Calculator as a Predictor of Outcomes in Patients Enrolled in Steroids for Corneal Ulcer and Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trials.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to validate the C-DU(KE) calculator as a predictor of treatment outcomes on a data set derived from patients with culture-positive ulcers. METHODS: C-DU(KE) criteria were compiled from a data set consisting of 1063 cases of infectious keratitis from the Steroids for Corneal Ulcer Trial (SCUT) and Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trial (MUTT) studies. These criteria include corticosteroid use after symptoms, visual acuity, ulcer area, fungal etiology, and elapsed time to organism-sensitive therapy. Univariate analysis was performed followed by multivariable logistic regressions on culture-exclusive and culture-inclusive models to assess for associations between the variables and outcome. The predictive probability of treatment failure, defined as the need for surgical intervention, was calculated for each study participant. Discrimination was assessed using the area under the curve for each model. RESULTS: Overall, 17.9% of SCUT/MUTT participants required surgical intervention. Univariate analysis showed that decreased visual acuity, larger ulcer area, and fungal etiology had a significant association with failed medical management. The other 2 criteria did not. In the culture-exclusive model, 2 of 3 criteria, decreased vision [odds ratio (OR) = 3.13, P < 0.001] and increased ulcer area (OR = 1.03, P < 0.001), affected outcomes. In the culture-inclusive model, 3 of 5 criteria, decreased vision (OR = 4.9, P < 0.001), ulcer area (OR = 1.02, P < 0.001), and fungal etiology (OR = 9.8, P < 0.001), affected results. The area under the curves were 0.784 for the culture-exclusive model and 0.846 for the culture-inclusive model which were comparable to the original study. CONCLUSIONS: The C-DU(KE) calculator is generalizable to a study population from large international studies primarily taking place in India. These results support its use as a risk stratification tool assisting ophthalmologists in patient management.

Anterior Segment OCT for Detection of Narrow Angles: A Community-Based Diagnostic Accuracy Study.

PURPOSE: To assess the diagnostic accuracy of anterior segment OCT (AS-OCT) screening for detecting gonioscopically narrow angles. DESIGN: Population-based cross-sectional study. PARTICIPANTS: A stratified random sample of individuals aged ≥ 60 years, selected from a door-to-door census performed in low-lying Nepal. TESTING: Participants underwent AS-OCT, posterior segment OCT, and intraocular pressure (IOP) testing in the community. Those meeting referral criteria in either eye were invited to have a comprehensive eye examination including gonioscopy. Referral criteria included (i) the lowest 2.5% of AS-OCT measurements, (ii) retinal OCT results suggestive of glaucomatous optic neuropathy, diabetic retinopathy, or age-related macular degeneration, and (iii) elevated IOP. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Sensitivity and specificity of 5 semiautomated AS-OCT parameters relative to gonioscopically narrow angles, defined as the absence of visible trabecular meshwork for ≥ 180° on nonindentation gonioscopy. RESULTS: Of 17 656 people aged ≥ 60 years enumerated from 102 communities, 12 633 (71.6%) presented for AS-OCT testing. Referral was recommended for 697 participants based on AS-OCT criteria and 2419 participants based on other criteria, of which 858 had gonioscopy performed by a glaucoma specialist. Each of the 5 AS-OCT parameters offered good diagnostic information for predicting eyes with gonioscopically narrow angles, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranging from 0.85 to 0.89. The angle opening distance at 750 µm from the scleral spur (AOD750) provided the most diagnostic information, providing an optimal sensitivity of 87% (95% confidence interval [CI], 75%-96%) and specificity of 77% (71%-83%) at a cutpoint of 367 µm, and a sensitivity of 65% (95% CI, 54%-74%) when specificity was constrained to 90% (cutpoint, 283 µm). CONCLUSIONS: On AS-OCT, the AOD750 parameter detected approximately two-thirds of cases of gonioscopically narrow angles when test specificity was set to 90%. Although such a sensitivity may not be sufficient when screening solely for narrow angles, AS-OCT requires little additional effort if posterior segment OCT is already being performed and thus could provide incremental benefit when performing OCT-based screening. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S): The authors have no proprietary or commercial interest in any materials discussed in this article.

Effect of Simultaneous Endothelial Keratoplasty and Cataract Surgery: A Secondary Analysis of the Descemet Endothelial Thickness Comparison Trial.

PURPOSE: Combining cataract surgery with endothelial keratoplasty (triple EK) is a common practice and may be safer because it commits the patient to only one surgery. This study aimed to determine whether outcomes of pseudophakic endothelial keratoplasty and triple EK have similar outcomes. METHODS: This was a non-prespecified secondary analysis of a multicenter, double-masked, randomized, controlled clinical trial. Enrollment centers included the Casey Eye Institute at Oregon Health and Sciences University and the Byers Eye Institute at Stanford University. Patients with damaged or diseased endothelium and were considered good candidates for either Descemet membrane endothelial keratoplasty or ultrathin Descemet stripping automated endothelial keratoplasty were randomized to one of the two surgeries 1-2 days prior to surgery. If the patient had a cataract, they underwent simultaneous cataract surgery. The primary outcome was visual acuity at 6 months. Visual acuity at 3, 12, and 24 months, 3, 6, 12, and 24 month endothelial cell density and intraoperative and postoperative complications were also recorded. RESULTS: Those who had pseudophakic EK generally were older, more likely to be male, and more likely to have worse baseline vision with higher corneal densitometry values. After controlling for baseline visual acuity and type of keratoplasty, those that underwent Triple-EK had 0.09 better LogMAR lines better visual acuity at 6 (95% CI -0.17 to -0.10; P = 0.02) and 12 months (95% CI -0.21 to -0.07; P = 0.03). Although those receiving Triple- EK had nearly one-half LogMAR line better visual acuity at 24 months, it was no longer statistically significant (95% CI -0.20 to -0.05; P = 0.36). There was no statistically significant difference in ECD between groups at any timepoint. Those undergoing triple EK were more likely to have at least one adverse event (P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Earlier intervention with Triple-EK may improve visual acuity outcomes after endothelial keratoplasty compared with staged procedures, but may also increase the risks of adverse events including the need for re-bubble.

Diagnostic accuracy of smartphone corneal photography for detection of corneal opacities in a resource-limited setting: a community-based study.

Purpose: To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of smartphone corneal photography in detecting corneal opacities in a community-based setting. Methods: A case-control, diagnostic accuracy study was nested in a cluster-randomized trial of a corneal ulcer prevention intervention in Nepal. Smartphone corneal photography was performed annually on community members self-reporting a potential risk factor for a corneal infection. Corneal photographs were graded for the presence or absence of an opacity. All cases with an opacity on smartphone photography and an equal number of controls were invited for a comprehensive eye examination with a slit lamp biomicroscope at an eye hospital. A mobile team visited participants unable to come to the hospital, conducting a limited examination with a penlight. Results: Of 1332 study participants (666 cases and 666 controls), 1097 had a penlight examination (535 cases and 562 controls) and 191 had a slit lamp examination (120 cases and 71 controls). When penlight examination was considered the reference standard, smartphone diagnosis of a corneal opacity had a positive predictive value (PPV) of 47% (95% confidence interval 43-52%) and negative predictive value (NPV) of 95% (93-97%). When slit lamp examination was considered the reference standard, the overall PPV and NPV were 71% (62-78%) and 80% (70-88%), respectively. The NPV was greater for detection of opacities > 1mm, estimated at 95% (90-98%). Conclusions: Corneal photography performed in a resource-limited community-based setting using a smartphone coupled to an external attachment had acceptable diagnostic accuracy for detection of corneal opacities large enough to be clinically meaningful.

Distance to Health Centers and Effectiveness of Azithromycin Mass Administration for Children in Niger: A Secondary Analysis of the MORDOR Cluster Randomized Trial.

Importance: The MORDOR (Macrolides Oraux pour Réduire les Décès avec un Oeil sur la Résistance) trial demonstrated that mass azithromycin administration reduced mortality by 18% among children aged 1 to 59 months in Niger. The identification of high-risk subgroups to target with this intervention could reduce the risk of antimicrobial resistance. Objective: To evaluate whether distance to the nearest primary health center modifies the effect of azithromycin administration to children aged 1 to 59 months on child mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: The MORDOR cluster randomized trial was conducted from December 1, 2014, to July 31, 2017; this post hoc secondary analysis was conducted in 2023 among 594 clusters (communities or grappes) in the Boboye and Loga departments in Niger. All children aged 1 to 59 months in eligible communities were evaluated. Interventions: Biannual (twice-yearly) administration of a single dose of oral azithromycin or matching placebo over 2 years. Main Outcomes and Measures: A population-based census was used to monitor mortality and person-time at risk (trial primary outcome). Community distance to a primary health center was calculated as kilometers between the center of each community and the nearest health center. Negative binomial regression was used to evaluate the interaction between distance and the effect of azithromycin on the incidence of all-cause mortality among children aged 1 to 59 months. Results: Between December 1, 2014, and July 31, 2017, a total of 594 communities were enrolled, with 76 092 children (mean [SD] age, 31 [2] months; 39 022 [51.3%] male) included at baseline, for a mean (SD) of 128 (91) children per community. Median (IQR) distance to the nearest primary health center was 5.0 (3.2-7.1) km. Over 2 years, 145 693 person-years at risk were monitored and 3615 deaths were recorded. Overall, mortality rates were 27.5 deaths (95% CI, 26.2-28.7 deaths) per 1000 person-years at risk in the placebo arm and 22.5 deaths (95% CI, 21.4-23.5 deaths) per 1000 person-years at risk in the azithromycin arm. For each kilometer increase in distance in the placebo arm, mortality increased by 5% (adjusted incidence rate ratio, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.03-1.07; P < .001). The effect of azithromycin on mortality varied significantly by distance (interaction P = .02). Mortality reduction with azithromycin compared with placebo was 0% at 0 km from the health center (95% CI, -19% to 17%), 4% at 1 km (95% CI, -12% to 17%), 16% at 5 km (95% CI, 7% to 23%), and 28% at 10 km (95% CI, 17% to 38%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this secondary analysis of a cluster randomized trial of mass azithromycin administration for child mortality, children younger than 5 years who lived farthest from health facilities appeared to benefit the most from azithromycin administration. These findings may help guide the allocation of resources to ensure that those with the least access to existing health resources are prioritized in program implementation. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02047981.

Seroreversion to Chlamydia trachomatis Pgp3 antigen among children in a hyperendemic region of Amhara, Ethiopia.

Monitoring trachoma transmission with antibody data requires characterization of decay in IgG to Chlamydia trachomatis antigens. In a three-year longitudinal cohort in a high transmission setting, we estimated a median IgG half-life of 3 years and a seroreversion rate of 2.5 (95% CI: 1.6, 3.5) per 100 person-years.

Comparison of door-to-door and fixed-point delivery of azithromycin distribution for child survival in Niger: A cluster-randomized trial.

Recent evidence indicates mass azithromycin distribution reduces under-5 mortality. This intervention is being considered for child survival programs in high mortality sub-Saharan African settings. The delivery approach used in prior studies required a full-time census and distribution team, which is not feasible for most programs. To determine the optimal programmatic approach to delivery, this study aimed to compare treatment coverage, costs, and acceptability of different delivery approaches with existing community health workers (CHWs). This cluster-randomized trial included rural and peri-urban communities in Dosso, Niger (clinicaltrials.gov, NCT04774991). A random sample of 80 eligible communities was randomized 1:1 to biannual door-to-door or fixed-point delivery of oral azithromycin to children 1-59 months old over 1 year. Data analysts alone were masked given the nature of the intervention. The primary outcome was community-level treatment coverage defined as the number of children treated recorded by CHWs divided by the number of eligible children determined using a post-distribution census. Costs were monitored through routine administrative data collection and micro-costing. The census included survey questions on intervention acceptability among caregivers, community leaders, and CHWs. After randomization, 1 community was excluded due to inaccuracies in available administrative data, resulting in 39 communities receiving door-to-door delivery. At the second distribution, community-level mean treatment coverage was 105% (SD 44%) in the door-to-door arm and 92% (SD 20%) in the fixed-point arm (Mean difference 13%, 95% CI -2% to 28%, P-value = 0.08). The total cost per dose delivered was $1.91 in the door-to-door arm and $2.51 in the fixed-point arm. Indicators of acceptability were similar across stakeholder groups in both arms, with most respondents in each group indicating a preference for door-to-door. Overall, door-to-door delivery is the preferred approach to azithromycin distribution in this setting and might reach more children at a lower cost per dose delivered than fixed-point. Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov NCT04774991.