Estimating force of infection from serologic surveys with imperfect tests.

BACKGROUND: The force of infection, or the rate at which susceptible individuals become infected, is an important public health measure for assessing the extent of outbreaks and the impact of control programs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We present Bayesian methods for estimating force of infection using serological surveys of infections which produce a lasting immune response, accounting for imperfections of the test, and uncertainty in such imperfections. In this estimation, the sensitivity and specificity can either be fixed, or belief distributions of their values can be elicited to allow for uncertainty. We analyse data from two published serological studies of dengue, one in Colombo, Sri Lanka, with a single survey and one in Medellin, Colombia, with repeated surveys in the same individuals. For the Colombo study, we illustrate how the inferred force of infection increases as the sensitivity decreases, and the reverse for specificity. When 100% sensitivity and specificity are assumed, the results are very similar to those from a standard analysis with binomial regression. For the Medellin study, the elicited distribution for sensitivity had a lower mean and higher variance than the one for specificity. Consequently, taking uncertainty in sensitivity into account resulted in a wide credible interval for the force of infection. CONCLUSIONS: These methods can make more realistic estimates of force of infection, and help inform the choice of serological tests for future serosurveys.

Estimating the Force of Infection for Dengue Virus Using Repeated Serosurveys, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.

Because of limited data on dengue virus in Burkina Faso, we conducted 4 consecutive age-stratified longitudinal serologic surveys, ≈6 months apart, among persons 1-55 years of age, during June 2015-March 2017, which included a 2016 outbreak. The seroconversion rate before the serosurvey enrollment was estimated by binomial regression, taking age as the duration of exposure, and assuming constant force of infection (FOI) over age and calendar time. We calculated FOI between consecutive surveys and rate ratios for potentially associated characteristics based on seroconversion using the duration of intervals. Among 2,897 persons at enrollment, 66.3% were IgG-positive, and estimated annual FOI was 5.95%. Of 1,269 enrollees participating in all 4 serosurveys, 438 were IgG-negative at enrollment. The annualized FOI ranged from 10% to 20% (during the 2016 outbreak). Overall, we observed high FOI for dengue. These results could support decision-making about control and preventive measures for dengue.

Clinical and epidemiologic characteristics associated with dengue during and outside the 2016 outbreak identified in health facility-based surveillance in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.

BACKGROUND: In Africa, the magnitude of dengue virus (DENV) transmission is largely unknown. In Burkina Faso, several outbreaks have been reported and data are often based on findings from outbreak investigations. METHODS: To better understand dengue epidemiology and clinical characteristics in Burkina Faso, a fever surveillance study was conducted among patients aged 1-55 years, who presented with non-malarial febrile illness at five primary healthcare facilities in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso from December 2014 to February 2017, encompassing a 3-month dengue outbreak in September-November 2016. Acute and convalescent blood samples were collected within an interval of 10-21 days between visits. Acute samples were tested with dengue rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) and a selected subset with RT-PCR, and all acute/convalescent samples with IgM/IgG ELISA. RESULTS: Among 2929 non-malarial febrile patients, 740 (25%) were dengue-positive based on RT-PCR and/or IgM/IgG ELISA; 428 out of 777 patients (55%) and 312 out of 2152 (14%) were dengue-positive during outbreak and non-outbreak periods, respectively. There were 11% (316/2929) and 4% (129/2929) patients showing positive for NS1 and IgM, on the RDT, respectively. DENV 2 predominated during the outbreak, whereas DENV 3 predominated before the outbreak. Only 25% of dengue-positive cases were clinically diagnosed with suspected dengue. The odds of requiring observation for ≤3 days (versus routine outpatient care) were 11 times higher among dengue-positive cases than non-dengue cases. In adjusted analyses, dengue-positivity was associated with rash and retro-orbital pain (OR = 2.6 and 7.4, respectively) during the outbreak and with rash and nausea/vomiting (OR = 1.5 and 1.4, respectively) during the non-outbreak period. CONCLUSION: Dengue virus is an important pathogen in Burkina Faso, accounting for a substantial proportion of non-malarial fevers both during and outside outbreak, but is only infrequently suspected by clinicians. Additional longitudinal data would help to further define characteristics of dengue for improved case detection and surveillance.

A multi-country study of the economic burden of dengue fever based on patient-specific field surveys in Burkina Faso, Kenya, and Cambodia.

BACKGROUND: Dengue fever is a rapidly growing public health problem in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics in the world. While there are existing studies on the economic burden of dengue fever in some of dengue-endemic countries, cost components are often not standardized, making cross-country comparisons challenging. Furthermore, no such studies have been available in Africa. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A patient-specific survey questionnaire was developed and applied in Burkina Faso, Kenya, and Cambodia in a standardized format. Multiple interviews were carried out in order to capture the entire cost incurred during the period of dengue illness. Both private (patient's out-of-pocket) and public (non-private) expenditure were accessed to understand how the economic burden of dengue is distributed between private and non-private payers. A substantial number of dengue-confirmed patients were identified in all three countries: 414 in Burkina Faso, 149 in Kenya, and 254 in Cambodia. The average cost of illness for dengue fever was $26 (95% CI $23-$29) and $134 (95% CI $119-$152) per inpatient in Burkina Faso and Cambodia, respectively. In the case of outpatients, the average economic burden per episode was $13 (95% CI $23-$29) in Burkina Faso and $23 (95% CI $19-$28) in Kenya. Compared to Cambodia, public contributions were trivial in Burkina Faso and Kenya, reflecting that a majority of medical costs had to be directly borne by patients in the two countries. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The cost of illness for dengue fever is significant in the three countries. In particular, the current study sheds light on the potential economic burden of the disease in Burkina Faso and Kenya where existing evidence is sparse in the context of dengue fever, and underscores the need to achieve Universal Health Coverage. Given the availability of the current (CYD-TDV) and second-generation dengue vaccines in the near future, our study outcomes can be used to guide decision makers in setting health policy priorities.

Burden of dengue among febrile patients at the time of chikungunya introduction in Piedecuesta, Colombia.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the age-specific incidence of symptomatic dengue and chikungunya in Colombia. METHOD: A passive facility-based fever surveillance study was conducted among individuals with undifferentiated fever. Confirmatory diagnostics included serological and molecular tests in paired samples, and surveillance's underreporting was assessed using capture-recapture methods. RESULTS: Of 839 febrile participants 686 completed the study. There were 33.2% (295/839) dengue infections (51% primary infections), and 35.9% (191/532) of negative dengue cases there were chikungunya cases. On average, dengue cases were younger (median = 18 years) than chikungunya cases (median = 25 years). Thrombocytopaenia and abdominal pain were the main dengue predictors, while presence of rash was the main predictor for chikungunya diagnosis. Underreporting of dengue was 31%; the estimated expansion factors indicate an underreporting rate of dengue cases of threefold for all cases and of almost sixfold for inpatients. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the ongoing coexistence of both arboviruses, a distinct clinical profile of each condition in the study area that could be used by clinicians to generate a differential diagnosis, and the presence of underreporting, mostly among hospitalised cases.

Dengue vaccine supplies under endemic and epidemic conditions in three dengue-endemic countries: Colombia, Thailand, and Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: Dengue fever has been a major public health concern in Colombia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Unlike other infectious diseases, dengue vaccines had not been available for a long time, causing difficulties to control the disease. However, the first live attenuated, tetravalent dengue vaccine (CYD-TDV) became available in 2016 and has been already licensed in some dengue-endemic countries. Because several second-generation dengue vaccines are also in the pipeline, it is critical to understand the efficient allocation of dengue vaccines considering the geographical variation of the disease. METHODS: The Climate Risk Factor (CRF) index was created using the climate and non-climate factors in the three countries. A random-coefficient negative binomial model was chosen to validate the relationship between the CRF index and dengue incidence proxy. Given the statistical significance of the CRF index, high risk areas for dengue fever were identified at the 5 km by 5 km resolution and used to estimate vaccination coverage rates and the number of doses required for various types of vaccination scenarios by country. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Based upon a three-dose scheme, the estimated number of vaccines required for routine vaccination targeting 9 years old ranged from 1 to 2.6 million doses across the countries during the first year of introduction. A one-off catch-up campaign targeting the age group of 10-17 year olds would require 8 to 18 million additional doses. Routine vaccination (with or without a catch-up campaign) covered 63%, 90%, and 91% of the targeted age group populations in Colombia, Thailand, and Vietnam respectively. Given that many dengue-endemic countries face limited resources and that the costs for mass vaccination campaigns may not be trivial, the findings of this study can guide the decision makers in the three countries regarding the efficient distribution of vaccines by identifying populations at high risk at 5 km by 5 km resolution.

A multi-country study of the economic burden of dengue fever: Vietnam, Thailand, and Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Dengue fever is a major public health concern in many parts of the tropics and subtropics. The first dengue vaccine has already been licensed in six countries. Given the growing interests in the effective use of the vaccine, it is critical to understand the economic burden of dengue fever to guide decision-makers in setting health policy priorities. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A standardized cost-of-illness study was conducted in three dengue endemic countries: Vietnam, Thailand, and Colombia. In order to capture all costs during the entire period of illness, patients were tested with rapid diagnostic tests on the first day of their clinical visits, and multiple interviews were scheduled until the patients recovered from the current illness. Various cost items were collected such as direct medical and non-medical costs, indirect costs, and non-out-of-pocket costs. In addition, socio-economic factors affecting disease severity were also identified by adopting a logit model. We found that total cost per episode ranges from $141 to $385 for inpatient and from $40 to $158 outpatient, with Colombia having the highest and Thailand having the lowest. The percentage of the private economic burden of dengue fever was highest in the low-income group and lowest in the high-income group. The logit analyses showed that early treatment, higher education, and better knowledge of dengue disease would reduce the probability of developing more severe illness. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The cost of dengue fever is substantial in the three dengue endemic countries. Our study findings can be used to consider accelerated introduction of vaccines into the public and private sector programs and prioritize alternative health interventions among competing health problems. In addition, a community would be better off by propagating the socio-economic factors identified in this study, which may prevent its members from developing severe illness in the long run.

Early warning signal for dengue outbreaks and identification of high risk areas for dengue fever in Colombia using climate and non-climate datasets.

BACKGROUND: Dengue has been prevalent in Colombia with high risk of outbreaks in various locations. While the prediction of dengue epidemics will bring significant benefits to the society, accurate forecasts have been a challenge. Given competing health demands in Colombia, it is critical to consider the effective use of the limited healthcare resources by identifying high risk areas for dengue fever. METHODS: The Climate Risk Factor (CRF) index was constructed based upon temperature, precipitation, and humidity. Considering the conditions necessary for vector survival and transmission behavior, elevation and population density were taken into account. An Early Warning Signal (EWS) model was developed by estimating the elasticity of the climate risk factor function to detect dengue epidemics. The climate risk factor index was further estimated at the smaller geographical unit (5 km by 5 km resolution) to identify populations at high risk. RESULTS: From January 2007 to December 2015, the Early Warning Signal model successfully detected 75% of the total number of outbreaks 1 ~ 5 months ahead of time, 12.5% in the same month, and missed 12.5% of all outbreaks. The climate risk factors showed that populations at high risk are concentrated in the Western part of Colombia where more suitable climate conditions for vector mosquitoes and the high population level were observed compared to the East. CONCLUSIONS: This study concludes that it is possible to detect dengue outbreaks ahead of time and identify populations at high risk for various disease prevention activities based upon observed climate and non-climate information. The study outcomes can be used to minimize potential societal losses by prioritizing limited healthcare services and resources, as well as by conducting vector control activities prior to experiencing epidemics.

Prospects for dengue vaccines for travelers.

Travel-acquired dengue cases have been increasing as the overall global dengue burden has expanded. In Korea, imported dengue cases have been reported since 2000 when it first became a notifiable disease. During the first four months of 2016, three times more dengue cases were reported in Korea than during the same period the previous year. A safe and efficacious vaccine for travelers would be beneficial to prevent dengue disease in individual travelers and potentially decrease the risk of virus spread to non-endemic areas. Here, we summarize the characteristics of dengue vaccines for travelers and review dengue vaccines currently licensed or in clinical development.

A Multi-country Study of the Household Willingness-to-Pay for Dengue Vaccines: Household Surveys in Vietnam, Thailand, and Colombia.

BACKGROUND: The rise in dengue fever cases and the absence of dengue vaccines will likely cause governments to consider various types of effective means for controlling the disease. Given strong public interests in potential dengue vaccines, it is essential to understand the private economic benefits of dengue vaccines for accelerated introduction of vaccines into the public sector program and private markets of high-risk countries. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A contingent valuation study for a hypothetical dengue vaccine was administered to 400 households in a multi-country setting: Vietnam, Thailand, and Colombia. All respondents received a description of the hypothetical dengue vaccine scenarios of 70% or 95% effectiveness for 10 or 30 years with a three dose series. Five price points were determined after pilot tests in order to reflect different local situations such as household income levels and general perceptions towards dengue fever. We adopted either Poisson or negative binomial regression models to calculate average willingness-to-pay (WTP), as well as median WTP. We found that there is a significant demand for dengue vaccines. The parametric median WTP is $26.4 ($8.8 per dose) in Vietnam, $70.3 ($23.4 per dose) in Thailand, and $23 ($7.7 per dose) in Colombia. Our study also suggests that respondents place more value on vaccinating young children than school age children and adults. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Knowing that dengue vaccines are not yet available, our study provides critical information to both public and private sectors. The study results can be used to ensure broad coverage with an affordable price and incorporated into cost benefit analyses, which can inform prioritization of alternative health interventions at the national level.

Impact of time to treatment of oseltamivir on influenza hospitalization cost among Korean children.

BACKGROUND: Although oseltamivir is a common influenza treatment, there is a lack of data on the economic benefits of timely oseltamivir treatment. METHODS: From February 2004 through June 2007, 116 hospitalized children ≤ 15 years of age with laboratory-confirmed influenza who received oseltamivir were identified via retrospective medical chart review. Demographic, clinical, and cost data were abstracted and multivariate linear regression was used to assess the association between oseltamivir time to treatment and treatment-related costs among hospitalized children with laboratory-confirmed influenza. RESULTS: Overall, 28% (n = 33) of patients were treated with oseltamivir ≥ day 3 of admission. Rapid influenza diagnostic test was used in a significantly lower proportion of patients treated with oseltamivir ≥ day 3 of admission compared with those who received oseltamivir earlier. On multivariate linear regression, initiation of oseltamivir ≥ day 3 of admission was associated with a 60.84% increase (95%CI: 32.59-95.11) in treatment-related hospital costs, compared with initiation on admission. CONCLUSION: Delayed initiation of oseltamivir was found to be associated with increased treatment-related hospital costs among children hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza.

The association between influenza treatment and hospitalization-associated outcomes among Korean children with laboratory-confirmed influenza.

There are limited data evaluating the relationship between influenza treatment and hospitalization duration. Our purpose assessed the association between different treatments and hospital stay among Korean pediatric influenza patients. Total 770 children ≤ 15 yr-of-age hospitalized with community-acquired laboratory-confirmed influenza at three large urban tertiary care hospitals were identified through a retrospective medical chart review. Demographic, clinical, and cost data were extracted and a multivariable linear regression model was used to assess the associations between influenza treatment types and hospital stay. Overall, there were 81% of the patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza who received antibiotic monotherapy whereas only 4% of the patients received oseltamivir monotherapy. The mean treatment-related charges for hospitalizations treated with antibiotics, alone or with oseltamivir, were significantly higher than those treated with oseltamivir-only (P < 0.001). Influenza patients treated with antibiotics-only and antibiotics/oseltamivir combination therapy showed 44.9% and 28.2%, respectively, longer duration of hospitalization compared to those treated with oseltamivir-only. Patients treated with antibiotics, alone or combined with oseltamivir, were associated with longer hospitalization and significantly higher medical charges, compared to patients treated with oseltamivir alone. In Korea, there is a need for more judicious use of antibiotics, appropriate use of influenza rapid testing.