Yield prediction through integration of genetic, environment, and management data through deep learning.

Accurate prediction of the phenotypic outcomes produced by different combinations of genotypes, environments, and management interventions remains a key goal in biology with direct applications to agriculture, research, and conservation. The past decades have seen an expansion of new methods applied toward this goal. Here we predict maize yield using deep neural networks, compare the efficacy of 2 model development methods, and contextualize model performance using conventional linear and machine learning models. We examine the usefulness of incorporating interactions between disparate data types. We find deep learning and best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP) models with interactions had the best overall performance. BLUP models achieved the lowest average error, but deep learning models performed more consistently with similar average error. Optimizing deep neural network submodules for each data type improved model performance relative to optimizing the whole model for all data types at once. Examining the effect of interactions in the best-performing model revealed that including interactions altered the model's sensitivity to weather and management features, including a reduction of the importance scores for timepoints expected to have a limited physiological basis for influencing yield-those at the extreme end of the season, nearly 200 days post planting. Based on these results, deep learning provides a promising avenue for the phenotypic prediction of complex traits in complex environments and a potential mechanism to better understand the influence of environmental and genetic factors.

Genetic mapping and prediction of flowering time and plant height in a maize Stiff Stalk MAGIC population.

The Stiff Stalk heterotic pool is a foundation of US maize seed parent germplasm and has been heavily utilized by both public and private maize breeders since its inception in the 1930s. Flowering time and plant height are critical characteristics for both inbred parents and their test crossed hybrid progeny. To study these traits, a 6-parent multiparent advanced generation intercross population was developed including maize inbred lines B73, B84, PHB47 (B37 type), LH145 (B14 type), PHJ40 (novel early Stiff Stalk), and NKH8431 (B73/B14 type). A set of 779 doubled haploid lines were evaluated for flowering time and plant height in 2 field replicates in 2016 and 2017, and a subset of 689 and 561 doubled haploid lines were crossed to 2 testers, respectively, and evaluated as hybrids in 2 locations in 2018 and 2019 using an incomplete block design. Markers were derived from a practical haplotype graph built from the founder whole genome assemblies and genotype-by-sequencing and exome capture-based sequencing of the population. Genetic mapping utilizing an update to R/qtl2 revealed differing profiles of significant loci for both traits between 635 of the DH lines and 2 sets of 570 and 471 derived hybrids. Genomic prediction was used to test the feasibility of predicting hybrid phenotypes based on the per se data. Predictive abilities were highest on direct models trained using the data they would predict (0.55-0.63), and indirect models trained using per se data to predict hybrid traits had slightly lower predictive abilities (0.49-0.55). Overall, this finding is consistent with the overlapping and nonoverlapping significant quantitative trait loci found within the per se and hybrid populations and suggests that selections for phenology traits can be made effectively on doubled haploid lines before hybrid data is available.

Maize genomes to fields (G2F): 2014-2017 field seasons: genotype, phenotype, climatic, soil, and inbred ear image datasets.

OBJECTIVES: Advanced tools and resources are needed to efficiently and sustainably produce food for an increasing world population in the context of variable environmental conditions. The maize genomes to fields (G2F) initiative is a multi-institutional initiative effort that seeks to approach this challenge by developing a flexible and distributed infrastructure addressing emerging problems. G2F has generated large-scale phenotypic, genotypic, and environmental datasets using publicly available inbred lines and hybrids evaluated through a network of collaborators that are part of the G2F's genotype-by-environment (G × E) project. This report covers the public release of datasets for 2014-2017. DATA DESCRIPTION: Datasets include inbred genotypic information; phenotypic, climatic, and soil measurements and metadata information for each testing location across years. For a subset of inbreds in 2014 and 2015, yield component phenotypes were quantified by image analysis. Data released are accompanied by README descriptions. For genotypic and phenotypic data, both raw data and a version without outliers are reported. For climatic data, a version calibrated to the nearest airport weather station and a version without outliers are reported. The 2014 and 2015 datasets are updated versions from the previously released files [1] while 2016 and 2017 datasets are newly available to the public.