Predictors of E-cigarette and Cigarette Use Trajectory Classes from Early Adolescence to Emerging Adulthood Across Four Years (2013-2017) of the PATH Study.

INTRODUCTION: This study examines predictors of trajectories of cigarette and e-cigarette use among a cohort of US adolescents transitioning into young adulthood. Comparing trajectories of each tobacco product is important to determine if different intervention targets are needed to prevent progression to daily use. METHODS: Latent trajectory class analyses identified cigarette and e-cigarette use (never, ever excluding past 12-month, past 12-month (excluding past 30-day (P30D)), P30D 1-5 days, P30D 6+ days) trajectory classes, separately, among US youth (12-17; N = 10,086) using the first 4 waves (2013-2017) of data from the nationally representative PATH Study. Weighted descriptive analyses described the class characteristics. Weighted multinomial logistic regression analyses examined demographic, psychosocial, and behavioral predictors of class membership. RESULTS: Younger adolescents 12-15 years had lower tobacco use compared to 16-17 year olds and less stable classes. In the 16-17 year group, there were five unique trajectories of cigarette smoking, including a Persistent High Frequency class. Four e-cigarette use trajectories were identified; but not a persistent use class. Shared predictors of class membership for cigarettes and e-cigarettes included mental health problems, other tobacco use, marijuana use, and poorer academic achievement. Male sex and household tobacco use were unique e-cigarette trajectory class predictors. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence that initiation with e-cigarettes as the first product tried was associated with cigarette progression (nor cigarettes as first product and e-cigarette progression). Interventions should focus on well-established risk factors such as mental health and other substance use to prevent progression of use for both tobacco products. IMPLICATIONS: Using nationally representative data and definitions of use that take into account frequency and recency of use, longitudinal 4-year trajectories of e-cigarette and cigarette use among US adolescents transitioning into young adulthood were identified. Results among 16-17-year olds revealed a class of persistent high frequency cigarette smoking that was not identified for e-cigarette use. Cigarette use progression was not associated with e-cigarettes as the first product tried. Risk factors for progression of use of both products included mental health and other substance use, which are important prevention targets for both tobacco products.

Role of e-cigarettes and pharmacotherapy during attempts to quit cigarette smoking: The PATH Study 2013-16.

BACKGROUND: More smokers report using e-cigarettes to help them quit than FDA-approved pharmacotherapy. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of e-cigarettes with future abstinence from cigarette and tobacco use. DESIGN: Cohort study of US sample, with annual follow-up. PARTICIPANTS: US adult (ages 18+) daily cigarette smokers identified at Wave 1 (W1; 2013-14) of the PATH Study, who reported a quit attempt before W2 and completed W3 (n = 2443). EXPOSURES: Use of e-cigarettes, pharmacotherapy (including nicotine replacement therapy), or no product for last quit attempt (LQA), and current daily e-cigarette use at W2. ANALYSIS: Propensity score matching (PSM) of groups using different methods to quit. OUTCOME MEASURES: 12+ months abstinence at W3 from cigarettes and from all tobacco (including e-cigarettes). 30+ days abstinence at W3 was a secondary outcome. RESULTS: Among daily smokers with an LQA, 23.5% used e-cigarettes, 19.3% used pharmacotherapy only (including NRT) and 57.2% used no product. Cigarette abstinence for 12+ months at W3 was ~10% in each group. Half of the cigarette abstainers in the e-cigarette group were using e-cigarettes at W3. Different methods to help quitting had statistically comparable 12+ month cigarette abstinence at W3 (e-cigarettes vs no product: Risk Difference (RD) = 0.01, 95% CI: -0.04 to 0.06; e-cigarettes vs pharmacotherapy: RD = 0.02, 95% CI:-0.04 to 0.09). Likewise, daily e-cigarette users at W2 did not show a cessation benefit over comparable no-e-cigarette users and this finding was robust to sensitivity analyses. Abstinence for 30+ days at W3 was also similar across products. LIMITATIONS: The frequency of e-cigarette use during the LQA was not assessed, nor was it possible to assess continuous abstinence from the LQA. CONCLUSION: Among US daily smokers who quit cigarettes in 2014-15, use of e-cigarettes in that attempt compared to approved cessation aids or no products showed similar abstinence rates 1-2 years later.

Longitudinal pathways of exclusive and polytobacco cigarette use among youth, young adults and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016).

OBJECTIVE: Cigarettes are the most harmful and most prevalent tobacco product in the USA. This study examines cross-sectional prevalence and longitudinal pathways of cigarette use among US youth (12-17 years), young adults (18-24 years) and adults 25+ (25 years and older). DESIGN: Data were drawn from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US adults and youth. Respondents with data at all three waves (youth, N=11 046; young adults, N=6478; adults 25+, N=17 188) were included in longitudinal analyses. RESULTS: Among Wave 1 (W1) any past 30-day (P30D) cigarette users, more than 60%, persistently used cigarettes across three waves in all age groups. Exclusive cigarette use was more common among adult 25+ W1 P30D cigarette users (62.6%), while cigarette polytobacco use was more common among youth (57.1%) and young adults (65.2%). Persistent exclusive cigarette use was the most common pathway among adults 25+ and young adults; transitioning from exclusive cigarette use to cigarette polytobacco use was most common among youth W1 exclusive cigarette users. For W1 youth and young adult cigarette polytobacco users, the most common pattern of use was persistent cigarette polytobacco use. CONCLUSIONS: Cigarette use remains persistent across time, regardless of age, with most W1 P30D smokers continuing to smoke at all three waves. Policy efforts need to continue focusing on cigarettes, in addition to products such as electronic nicotine delivery systems that are becoming more prevalent.

Overview of tobacco use transitions for population health.

The Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act provided the US Food and Drug Administration authority to regulate tobacco products using a population health standard. Models have been developed to estimate the population health impacts of tobacco initiation, cessation and relapse transitions. Models should be informed by high-quality, longitudinal data to estimate these constructs. Simulation studies have generated data to predict the impact of various tobacco control interventions, including the influence of regulations on tobacco use behaviours and health. The purpose of this paper is to provide a high-level conceptual overview for understanding tobacco transition behaviours and correlates of these behaviours using data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, a US nationally representative longitudinal tobacco study of about 46 000 persons aged 12+ years. The papers that follow in this journal issue build and expand on this conceptual overview using data from the first three waves of the PATH Study. These papers describe use patterns of different tobacco products and their correlates, and can serve as foundations for more in-depth papers that will help the research community better understand the population health impacts and drivers of different tobacco use patterns.

Longitudinal transitions of exclusive and polytobacco electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) use among youth, young adults and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016).

OBJECTIVE: Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS; including e-cigarettes) are rapidly evolving in the US marketplace. This study reports cross-sectional prevalence and longitudinal pathways of ENDS use across 3 years, among US youth (12-17 years), young adults (18-24 years) and adults 25+ (25 years and older). DESIGN: Data were from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US youth and adults. Respondents with data at all three waves (youth, n=11 046; young adults, n=6478; adults 25+, n=17 188) were included in longitudinal analyses. RESULTS: Weighted cross-sectional ever use of ENDS increased at each wave. Across all three waves, young adults had the highest percentages of past 12-month, past 30-day (P30D) and daily P30D ENDS use compared with youth and adults 25+. Only about a quarter of users had persistent P30D ENDS use at each wave. Most ENDS users were polytobacco users. Exclusive Wave 1 ENDS users had a higher proportion of subsequent discontinued any tobacco use compared with polytobacco ENDS users who also used cigarettes. CONCLUSIONS: ENDS use is most common among young adults compared with youth and adults 25+. However, continued use of ENDS over 2 years is not common for any age group. Health education efforts to reduce the appeal and availability of ENDS products might focus on reducing ENDS experimentation, and on reaching the smaller subgroups of daily ENDS users to better understand their reasons for use.

Longitudinal pathways of exclusive and polytobacco hookah use among youth, young adults and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016).

OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study is to examine cross-sectional rates of use and longitudinal pathways of hookah use among US youth (ages 12-17), young adults (ages 18-24), and adults 25+ (ages 25 and older). DESIGN: Data were drawn from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US adults and youth. Respondents with data at all three waves (youth, n=11 046; young adults, n=6478; adults 25+, n=17 188) were included in longitudinal analyses. RESULTS: Young adults had higher ever, past 12-month (P12M) and past 30-day cross-sectional prevalence of hookah use at each wave than youth or adults 25+. The majority of Wave 1 (W1) hookah users were P12M users of other tobacco products (youth: 73.9%, young adults: 80.5%, adults 25+: 83.2%). Most youth and adult W1 P12M hookah users discontinued use in Wave 2 or Wave 3 (youth: 58.0%, young adults: 47.5%, adults 25+: 63.4%). Most W1 P12M hookah polytobacco users used cigarettes (youth: 49.4%, young adults: 59.4%, adults 25+: 63.2%) and had lower rates of quitting all tobacco than exclusive hookah users or hookah polytobacco users who did not use cigarettes. CONCLUSIONS: Hookah use is more common among young adults than among youth or adults 25+. Discontinuing hookah use is the most common pathway among exclusive or polytobacco hookah users. Understanding longitudinal transitions in hookah use is important in understanding behavioural outcomes at the population level.

Longitudinal pathways of exclusive and polytobacco cigar use among youth, young adults and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016).

OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study is to examine the cross-sectional prevalence of use and 3-year longitudinal pathways of cigar use in US youth (12-17 years), young adults (18-24 years), and adults 25+ (25 years or older). DESIGN: Data were drawn from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US youth and adults. Respondents with data at all three waves (youth, n=11 046; young adults, n=6478; adults 25+, n=17 188) were included in longitudinal analyses. RESULTS: Weighted cross-sectional prevalence of past 30-day (P30D) use was stable for adults 25+ (~6%), but decreased in youth (Wave 1 (W1) to Wave 3 (W3)=2.5% to 1.2%) and young adults (W1 to W3=15.7% to 14.0%). Among W1 P30D cigar users, over 50% discontinued cigar use (irrespective of other tobacco use) by Wave 2 (W2) or W3. Across age groups, over 70% of W1 P30D cigar users also indicated P30D use of another tobacco product, predominantly cigar polytobacco use with cigarettes. Discontinuing all tobacco use by W2 or W3 was greater in adult exclusive P30D cigar users compared with polytobacco cigar users. CONCLUSIONS: Although the majority of P30D cigar users discontinued use by W3, adult polytobacco users of cigars were less likely to discontinue all tobacco use than were exclusive cigar users. Tracking patterns of cigar use will allow further assessment of the population health impact of cigars.

Longitudinal pathways of exclusive and polytobacco smokeless use among youth, young adults and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016).

OBJECTIVE: Use of smokeless tobacco (SLT) with other tobacco products is growing, yet gaps in understanding transitions among SLT and other product use remain. The aim of this study is to examine cross-sectional prevalence and longitudinal pathways of SLT use among US youth (12-17 years), young adults (18-24 years) and adults 25+ (25 years and older). DESIGN: Data were drawn from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US youth and adults. Respondents with data at all three waves (youth, n=11 046; young adults, n=6478; adults 25+, n=17 188) were included in longitudinal analyses. RESULTS: Young adults had the highest current SLT use compared with other age groups. Among Wave 1 (W1) past 30-day youth and young adult SLT users, most were SLT and cigarette polytobacco users compared with adults 25+, who more often used SLT exclusively. Among W1 exclusive SLT users, persistent exclusive use across all three waves was more common among adults 25+, while transitioning from exclusive SLT use to SLT polytobacco use at Wave 2 or Wave 3 was more common among youth and young adults. Among W1 SLT and cigarette polytobacco users, a common pathway was discontinuing SLT use but continuing other tobacco use. CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed distinct longitudinal transitions among exclusive and SLT polytobacco users. Deeper understanding of these critical product transitions will allow for further assessment of population health impact of these products.

Initiation of any tobacco and five tobacco products across 3 years among youth, young adults and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016).

OBJECTIVE: This study reports weighted cross-sectional prevalence of never use of tobacco, and longitudinal past 12-month (P12M), past 30-day (P30D) and frequent P30D any tobacco or specific tobacco product initiation across three 1-year waves. Longitudinal three-wave pathways are examined to outline pathways of exclusive and polytobacco initiation, as well as pathways of new initiators of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) or cigarettes. DESIGN: Data were drawn from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US youth and adults. Respondents with data at all three waves (youth, N = 11 046; young adults, N = 6478; adults 25+, N = 17 188) were included in longitudinal analyses. RESULTS: Across the three age groups, weighted cross-sectional analyses revealed never any tobacco use decreased each year from 2013 to 2016, reflecting overall increases in tobacco initiation in the population during this time. Compared with cigarettes, cigars, hookah and smokeless tobacco, ENDS had the highest proportion of P12M initiation from Wave 1 to Wave 3 (W3) for each age group. Among youth Wave 2 P30D initiators of exclusive ENDS or cigarettes, the most common W3 outcome was not using any tobacco (ENDS: 59.0% (95% CI 48.4 to 68.8); cigarettes: 40.3% (95% CI 28.7 to 53.1)). CONCLUSIONS: Initiation rates of ENDS among youth and young adults have increased the number of ever tobacco users in the US prevention strategies across the spectrum of tobacco products which can address youth initiation of tobacco products.

Correlates of tobacco product cessation among youth and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016).

OBJECTIVE: To report on demographic and tobacco use correlates of cessation behaviours across tobacco products (cigarettes, electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), cigars, hookah and smokeless tobacco) among the US population. DESIGN: Data were drawn from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US youth (ages 12-17) and adults (ages 18+) . Past 30-day (P30D) tobacco users at Wave 1 (W1) or Wave 2 (W2) were included (n=1374 youth; n=14 389 adults). Generalised estimating equations were used to evaluate the association between demographic and tobacco use characteristics at baseline, with cessation behaviours at follow-up (discontinuing use, attempting to quit, quitting), over two 1-year periods (W1-W2, W2-Wave 3). RESULTS: Among adult users of each type of tobacco product, frequency of use was negatively associated with discontinuing use. Among adult cigarette smokers, non-Hispanic white smokers, those with lower educational attainment and those with lower household income were less likely to discontinue cigarette use; ENDS use was positively associated with making quit attempts but was not associated with cigarette quitting among attempters; smokeless tobacco use was positively associated with quitting among attempters; tobacco dependence was negatively associated with quitting among attempters. Among youth cigarette smokers, tobacco dependence was negatively associated with making quit attempts. DISCUSSION: Demographic correlates of tobacco cessation behaviours underscore tobacco use disparities in the USA. Use of ENDS and use of smokeless tobacco products are positively associated with some adult cigarette cessation behaviours.

Correlates of tobacco product initiation among youth and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016).

OBJECTIVE: To report on demographic and tobacco product use correlates of tobacco product initiation (cigarettes, electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), cigars, hookah and smokeless tobacco) among the US population. DESIGN: Data were from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US youth (aged 12-17 years) and adults (aged 18+ years). Never users of at least one type of tobacco product at Wave 1 (W1, 2013/14) or Wave 2 (W2, 2014/15) were included (n=12 987 youth; n=25 116 adults). Generalised estimating equations were used to evaluate the association between demographic and tobacco product use characteristics at baseline, and tobacco product initiation at follow-up (ever, past 30 day (P30D), frequent (use on 20 or more of thepast 30 days)) over two 1-year periods (W1-W2 and W2-Wave 3). RESULTS: Youth aged 15-17 years were more likely than youth aged 12-14 years and adults aged 18-24 years were more likely than older adults to initiate P30D tobacco use across products; non-heterosexuals were more likely than heterosexuals to initiate P30D cigarette and ENDS use. Older adults were more likely than young adults, and males were more likely than females, to be frequent users of ENDS on initiation. Ever use of another tobacco product predicted P30D initiation of each tobacco product. DISCUSSION: Other tobacco product use and age predict P30D tobacco initiation across products whereas associations with other demographic characteristics vary by product. Continued contemporary evaluation of initiation rates within the changing tobacco product marketplace is important.

Correlates of tobacco product reuptake and relapse among youth and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016).

OBJECTIVE: This study examines sociodemographic and tobacco use correlates of reuptake and relapse to tobacco use across a variety of tobacco products (cigarettes, electronic nicotine delivery systems, cigars, hookah and smokeless tobacco) among the US population. DESIGN: Data were drawn from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US youth (ages 12-17) and adults (ages 18+). Reuptake (past 30-day use among previous tobacco users) and relapse (current use among former established users; adults only) were examined among previous users of at least one type of tobacco product at Wave 1 (W1) or Wave 2 (W2) (n=19 120 adults, n=3039 youth). Generalised estimating equations were used to evaluate the association between demographic and tobacco use characteristics at baseline, with reuptake/relapse at follow-up, over two 1-year periods (W1-W2 and W2-Wave 3). RESULTS: Any tobacco product reuptake occurred in 7.8% of adult previous users and 30.3% of youth previous users. Correlates of any tobacco reuptake included being male, non-Hispanic black and bisexual in adults, but race and sexual orientation were not consistent findings in youth. Among recent former users, relapse rates were greater (32.9%). Shorter time since last use and greater levels of tobacco dependence showed the strongest association with any tobacco relapse. DISCUSSION: Continued clinical and public health efforts to provide adults with tools to cope with tobacco dependence symptoms, especially within the first year or two after quitting, could help prevent relapse.

Adverse Experience Reports of Seizures in Youth and Young Adult Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems Users.

PURPOSE: Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) use poses significant and avoidable health risks to young people. Until recently, seizures were most often associated with cases of liquid nicotine ingestion. METHODS: We examined 122 voluntary reports of seizures (n = 114) and neurological symptoms (syncope, n = 7; and tremor, n = 1) in 123 ENDS users (one report contained information on two users) received by the Food and Drug Administration between December 1, 2010, and June 30, 2019. RESULTS: The median age (interquartile range) of users was 20 years (17-27); 67% of reports were in youth and young adults aged 14-24 years. Fifty-one (41%) reported other underlying medical conditions, including previous history of anxiety (n = 11), attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (n = 7), seizure (n = 6), and depression (n = 5). Of the 79 reports with available information, 67 (85%) reported seizure occurred within 24 hours of last use; 49 (62%) reported seizure within 30 minutes. The potential impact of concomitant use of marijuana or cannabidiol oil could not be evaluated from the eight reports that mentioned concomitant use. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest an association between ENDS use and seizures. Additional information will help to clarify the relationship between ENDS use and seizures and to understand how product attributes such as nicotine content, formulation, quantity, and other ingredients or contaminants may contribute to seizures. It is important that health care providers ask about ENDS use when evaluating neurological symptoms and that users, parents, school personnel, and health care providers report adverse experiences involving tobacco products to Food and Drug Administration via the Safety Reporting Portal (www.safetyreporting.hhs.gov).

Longitudinal e-Cigarette and Cigarette Use Among US Youth in the PATH Study (2013-2015).

BACKGROUND: Evidence is accumulating that youth who try Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems (ENDS, e-cigarettes) may go on to try cigarettes. This analysis examines the bidirectional patterns of ENDS and cigarette use among US youth over one year and uses propensity score matching (PSM) to examine frequency of ENDS use on changes in cigarette smoking. METHODS: Our analysis included 11 996 participants who had two waves of available data (Wave 1 [W1] 2013-2014; Wave 2 [W2] 2014-2015) drawn from the longitudinal Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study. Cross-sectional weighted prevalence estimates are reported for cigarettes and ENDS. We used PSM to estimate the likelihood of ENDS use at W1 and to draw matched analytic samples, then used regression (logistic or linear) models to examine the effect of W1 ENDS use on W2 cigarette smoking. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: In weighted analyses, 69.3% of W1 past-30-day cigarette smokers exhibited past-30-day smoking at W2; 42.2% of W1 past-30-day ENDS users were using ENDS at W2. W1 ever use of either product was similarly associated with W2 new use of the other product. Unweighted PSM models indicated W1 cigarette-naïve ENDS use was associated with W2 ever-cigarette smoking (n = 676; adjusted odds ratio = 3.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.95 to 5.45, P < .001); W1 ever-ENDS use did not affect change in cigarette frequency at W2 (n = 1020, beta = 0.31, 95% CI = -0.76 to 1.39, P = .57); 1-5 days ENDS use compared with ever, no past-30-day ENDS use was associated with a statistically significant decrease of W2 smoking days (n = 256, beta = -2.64, 95% CI = -4.96 to -0.32; P = .03); and W1 6+ day ENDS users did not show a decrease in frequency of cigarette smoking. CONCLUSIONS: Ever-ENDS use predicts future cigarette smoking, and frequency of ENDS use has a differential impact on subsequent cigarette smoking uptake or reduction. These results suggest that both cigarettes and ENDS should be targeted in early tobacco prevention efforts with youth.

Associations of risk factors of e-cigarette and cigarette use and susceptibility to use among baseline PATH study youth participants (2013-2014).

INTRODUCTION: Improved understanding of the distribution of traditional risk factors of cigarette smoking among youth who have ever used or are susceptible to e-cigarettes and cigarettes will inform future longitudinal studies examining transitions in use. METHODS: Multiple logistic regression analysis was conducted using data from youth (ages 12-17 years) who had ever heard of e-cigarettes at baseline of the PATH Study (n = 12,460) to compare the distribution of risk factors for cigarette smoking among seven mutually exclusive groups based on ever cigarette/e-cigarette use and susceptibility status. RESULTS: Compared to committed never users, youth susceptible to e-cigarettes, cigarettes, or both had increasing odds of risk factors for cigarette smoking, with those susceptible to both products at highest risk, followed by cigarettes and e-cigarettes. Compared to e-cigarette only users, dual users had higher odds of nearly all risk factors (aOR range = 1.6-6.8) and cigarette only smokers had higher odds of other (non-e-cigarette) tobacco use (aOR range = 1.5-2.3), marijuana use (aOR = 1.9, 95%CI = 1.4-2.5), a high GAIN substance use score (aOR = 1.9, 95%CI = 1.1-3.4), low academic achievement (aOR range = 1.6-3.4), and exposure to smoking (aOR range = 1.8-2.1). No differences were observed for externalizing factors (depression, anxiety, etc.), sensation seeking, or household use of non-cigarette tobacco. CONCLUSIONS: Among ever cigarette and e-cigarette users, dual users had higher odds of reporting traditional risk factors for smoking, followed by single product cigarette smokers and e-cigarette users. Understanding how e-cigarette and cigarette users differ may inform youth tobacco use prevention efforts and advise future studies assessing probability of progression of cigarette and e-cigarette use.