The applicability of the "surprise question" as a prognostic tool in patients with severe chronic comorbidities in a university teaching outpatient setting.

BACKGROUND: Life expectancy in recent decades has increased the prevalence of chronic diseases in the population, requiring an approach to new health topics, such as discussions on quality of life and expectations about death and dying. The concept of advance directives (ADs) gives individuals the opportunity to make known their decisions about the treatments they would like to receive at the end of life. Despite the recognition of relevance in clinical practice, the applicability of the concept presents challenges, including establishing the appropriate prognosis for each patient and the ideal time to approach the patient. Some prognostic tools were developed, such as the surprise question (SQ): "Would you be surprised if your patient died in 12 months?", which is used in some clinical settings to predict patient deaths and to make decisions regarding ADs. The main objective of the present study was to evaluate the behavior of second-year resident physicians (PGY-2) when the SQ was applied. METHOD: In our observational study, from July 1, 2016, to February 28, 2017, (PGY-2) in the Internal Medicine Residency Program (IMRP) applied SQ to all patients with multiple and varied chronic no communicable comorbidities, who were followed up at the general medicine outpatient clinic (GMOC) of a tertiary university hospital in São Paulo- Brazil. The frequency of the outcome (death or non-death within 12 months) was analyzed by correlating it with the clinical data (impact of the studied variables). RESULTS: Eight hundred forty patients entered the study. Fitfty-two of them (6.2%) died within one year. PGY-2 predicted that two hundred and fourteen patients (25.5% of total) would die within a year (answer No to SQ), of which, 32 (14.9%) did so. The correct residents' prognosis for the subgroup of 626 patients (answer "Yes" to SQ) was NPV = 96.8% (CI = 95.4%-98.2%) and PPV = 14.9% (CI 10.1%-19, 6%). Answering "Yes" to SQ correlated negatively to addressing AD while the outcomes death and the answer No to SQ were positively correlated, according to the number of comorbidities. CONCLUSION: The SQ, in addition to care, contributed to health education, communication and care planning shared by the doctor and patient.

Cardiac arrhythmia emergency room visits and environmental air pollution in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

OBJECTIVES: Air-pollution exposure has been associated with increased cardiovascular hospital admissions and mortality in time-series studies. We evaluated the relation between air pollutants and emergency room (ER) visits because of cardiac arrhythmia in a cardiology hospital. METHODS: In a time-series study, we evaluated the association between the emergency room visits as a result of cardiac arrhythmia and daily variations in SO(2), CO, NO(2), O(3) and PM(10), from January 1998 to August 1999. The cases of arrhythmia were modelled using generalised linear Poisson regression models, controlling for seasonality (short-term and long-term trend), and weather. RESULTS: Interquartile range increases in CO (1.5 ppm), NO(2) (49,5 microg/m(3)) and PM(10) (22.2 microg/m(3)) on the concurrent day were associated with increases of 12.3% (95% CI: 7.6% to 17.2%), 10.4% (95% CI: 5.2% to 15.9%) and 6.7% (95% CI: 1.2% to 12.4%) in arrhythmia ER visits, respectively. PM(10), CO and NO(2) effects were dose-dependent and gaseous pollutants had thresholds. Only CO effect resisted estimates in models with more than one pollutant. CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed that air pollutant effects on arrhythmia are predominantly acute starting at concentrations below air quality standards, and the association with CO and NO(2) suggests a relevant role for pollution caused by cars.

Effect of air pollution on pediatric respiratory emergency room visits and hospital admissions.

In order to assess the effect of air pollution on pediatric respiratory morbidity, we carried out a time series study using daily levels of PM10, SO2, NO2, ozone, and CO and daily numbers of pediatric respiratory emergency room visits and hospital admissions at the Children's Institute of the University of Sao Paulo Medical School, from August 1996 to August 1997. In this period there were 43,635 hospital emergency room visits, 4534 of which were due to lower respiratory tract disease. The total number of hospital admissions was 6785, 1021 of which were due to lower respiratory tract infectious and/or obstructive diseases. The three health end-points under investigation were the daily number of emergency room visits due to lower respiratory tract diseases, hospital admissions due to pneumonia, and hospital admissions due to asthma or bronchiolitis. Generalized additive Poisson regression models were fitted, controlling for smooth functions of time, temperature and humidity, and an indicator of weekdays. NO2 was positively associated with all outcomes. Interquartile range increases (65.04 microg/m3) in NO2 moving averages were associated with an 18.4% increase (95% confidence interval, 95% CI = 12.5-24.3) in emergency room visits due to lower respiratory tract diseases (4-day moving average), a 17.6% increase (95% CI = 3.3-32.7) in hospital admissions due to pneumonia or bronchopneumonia (3-day moving average), and a 31.4% increase (95% CI = 7.2-55.7) in hospital admissions due to asthma or bronchiolitis (2-day moving average). The study showed that air pollution considerably affects children's respiratory morbidity, deserving attention from the health authorities.

Effect of air pollution on pediatric respiratory emergency room visits and hospital admissions

In order to assess the effect of air pollution on pediatric respiratory morbidity, we carried out a time series study using daily levels of PM10, SO2, NO2, ozone, and CO and daily numbers of pediatric respiratory emergency room visits and hospital admissions at the Children's Institute of the University of São Paulo Medical School, from August 1996 to August 1997. In this period there were 43,635 hospital emergency room visits, 4534 of which were due to lower respiratory tract disease. The total number of hospital admissions was 6785, 1021 of which were due to lower respiratory tract infectious and/or obstructive diseases. The three health end-points under investigation were the daily number of emergency room visits due to lower respiratory tract diseases, hospital admissions due to pneumonia, and hospital admissions due to asthma or bronchiolitis. Generalized additive Poisson regression models were fitted, controlling for smooth functions of time, temperature and humidity, and an indicator of weekdays. NO2 was positively associated with all outcomes. Interquartile range increases (65.04 æg/m ) in NO2 moving averages were associated with an 18.4 percent increase (95 percent confidence interval, 95 percent CI = 12.5-24.3) in emergency room visits due to lower respiratory tract diseases (4-day moving average), a 17.6 percent increase (95 percent CI = 3.3-32.7) in hospital admissions due to pneumonia or bronchopneumonia (3-day moving average), and a 31.4 percent increase (95 percent CI = 7.2-55.7) in hospital admissions due to asthma or bronchiolitis (2-day moving average). The study showed that air pollution considerably affects children's respiratory morbidity, deserving attention from the health authorities.

Air pollution and neonatal deaths in São Paulo, Brazil

Air pollution has been associated with health effects on different age groups. The present study was designed to assess the impact of daily changes in air pollutants (NO2, SO2, CO, O3, and particle matter (PM10)) on total number of daily neonatal deaths (those that occur between the first and the 28th days of life) in São Paulo, from January 1998 to December 2000, since adverse outcomes such as neonatal deaths associated with air pollution in Brazil have not been evaluated before. Generalized additive Poisson regression models were used and nonparametric smooth functions (loess) were adopted to control long-term trend, temperature, humidity, and short-term trends. A linear term was used for holidays. The association between air pollutants and neonatal deaths showed a short time lag. Interquartile range increases in PM10 (23.3 æg/m ) and SO2 (9.2 æg/m ) were associated with increases of 4 percent (95 percent CI, 2-6) and 6 percent (95 percent CI, 4-8), respectively. Instead of adopting a two-pollutant model we created an index to represent PM10 and SO2 effects. For an interquartile range increase in the index an increase of 6.3 percent (95 percent CI, 6.1-6.5) in neonatal deaths was observed. These results agree with previous studies performed by our group showing the deleterious effects of air pollutants during the perinatal period. The method reported here represents an alternative approach to analyze the relationship between highly correlated pollutants and public health problems, reinforcing the idea of the synergic effects of air pollutants in public health.

Air pollution and neonatal deaths in São Paulo, Brazil.

Air pollution has been associated with health effects on different age groups. The present study was designed to assess the impact of daily changes in air pollutants (NO2, SO2, CO, O3, and particle matter (PM10)) on total number of daily neonatal deaths (those that occur between the first and the 28th days of life) in São Paulo, from January 1998 to December 2000, since adverse outcomes such as neonatal deaths associated with air pollution in Brazil have not been evaluated before. Generalized additive Poisson regression models were used and nonparametric smooth functions (loess) were adopted to control long-term trend, temperature, humidity, and short-term trends. A linear term was used for holidays. The association between air pollutants and neonatal deaths showed a short time lag. Interquartile range increases in PM10 (23.3 microg/m(3)) and SO2 (9.2 microg/m(3)) were associated with increases of 4% (95% CI, 2-6) and 6% (95% CI, 4-8), respectively. Instead of adopting a two-pollutant model we created an index to represent PM10 and SO2 effects. For an interquartile range increase in the index an increase of 6.3% (95% CI, 6.1-6.5) in neonatal deaths was observed. These results agree with previous studies performed by our group showing the deleterious effects of air pollutants during the perinatal period. The method reported here represents an alternative approach to analyze the relationship between highly correlated pollutants and public health problems, reinforcing the idea of the synergic effects of air pollutants in public health.

Health effects of air pollution exposure on children and adolescents in São Paulo, Brazil.

Children and adolescents have been considered more susceptible to the effects of air pollution than adults. In order to investigate the responses of children of different ages to air pollution exposure, daily records of hospital admissions for children in five age groups (equal or less than 2 years of age, 3-5, 6-13, 14-19, and all ages together, i.e., from 0-19 years of age) were obtained from January 1993 to November 1997 in São Paulo, Brazil, and were compared to daily records of PM10, O3, SO2, CO and NO2 concentrations in ambient air. For each age group a generalized additive Poisson regression was fitted controlling for smooth functions of time, temperature, humidity, and days of the week, with an additional indicator for holidays. Polynomial distributed lag models were used to estimate the 7-day cumulative effect of each pollutant. Children 2 years or less were the most susceptible to the effects of all five pollutants with an increase of 9.4% (95% CI: 7.9,10.9) in respiratory admissions associated with each interquartile range increase in PM10. The oldest group was the second most susceptible to air pollutants, with each interquartile range increase in PM10 associated with a 5.1% (95% CI: 0.3,9.8) increase in respiratory admissions. An interquartile range increase in CO was associated with an 11.3% (95% CI: 5.9,16.8) increase in respiratory hospitalizations. When a multipollutant model was used, the effect of PM10 on respiratory admissions for all ages together was unchanged, while the SO2 and the other pollutants effect was substantially reduced. This study showed that daily respiratory hospital admissions for children and adolescents in São Paulo increased with air pollution, and that the largest effects were found for the youngest (2 years or less) and oldest (14-19 years) age groups.

Environmental epidemiology applied to urban atmospheric pollution: a contribution from the Experimental Air Pollution Laboratory (LPAE).

Systematic investigation on the effects of human exposure to environmental pollution using scientific methodology only began in the 20th century as a consequence of several environmental accidents followed by an unexpected mortality increase above expected mortality and as a result of observational epidemiological and toxicological studies conducted on animals in developed countries. This article reports the experience of the Experimental Air Pollution Laboratory at the School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, concerning the respiratory system and pathophysiological mechanisms involved in responses to exposure to pollution using toxicological and experimental procedures, complemented by observational epidemiological studies conducted in the city of São Paulo. It also describes these epidemiological studies, pointing out that air pollution is harmful to public health, not only among susceptible groups but also in the general population, even when the concentration of pollutants is below the limits set by environmental legislation. The study provides valuable information to support the political and economic decision-making processes aimed at preserving the environment and enhancing quality of life.

Air pollution and respiratory illness of children in São Paulo, Brazil.

This investigation reports the association between air pollution and paediatric respiratory emergency visits in São Paulo, Brazil, the largest city in South America. Daily records of emergency visits were obtained from the Children's Institute of the University of São Paulo for the period from May 1991 to April 1993. Visits were classified as respiratory and non-respiratory causes. Respiratory visits were further divided into three categories: upper respiratory illness, lower respiratory illness and wheezing. Daily records of SO2, CO, particulate matter (PM10), O3 and NO2 concentrations were obtained from the State Air Pollution Controlling Agency of São Paulo. Associations between respiratory emergency visits and air pollution were assessed by simple comparative statistics, simple correlation analysis and by estimating a variety of regression models. Significant associations between the increase of respiratory emergency visits and air pollution were observed. The most robust associations were observed with PM10, and to a lesser extent with O3. These associations were stable across different model specifications and several controlling variables. A significant increase in the counts of respiratory emergency visits--more than 20%--was observed on the most polluted days, indicating that air pollution is a substantial paediatric health concern in São Paulo.

Respiratory system mechanics in guinea pigs after acute hemorrhage: role of adrenergic stimulation.

We evaluated the effects of acute blood loss on the respiratory mechanics of guinea pigs. We measured respiratory system elastance (Ers) and resistance (Rrsmax) using the end-inflation occlusion method. Rrsmax was partitioned into its homogeneous component (Rrsmin) and that due to the unevenness within the respiratory system (Rrsu). Respiratory mechanics were studied both before and immediately after bleeding in eight animals. Another eight guinea pigs had received propranolol previously and were also submitted to hemorrhage. Propranolol-treated animals showed higher control values of Rrsmax (p less than .02) and Rrsmin (p less than .0001). Animals not treated with propranolol exhibited a decrease (p less than 0.001) in Rrsmax after hemorrhagic hypovolemia (from 0.375 +/- 0.051 to 0.323 +/- 0.042 cm H2O/ml.sec), due to a decrease (p less than 0.005) in Rrsmin (from 0.140 +/- 0.031 to 0.094 +/- 0.032 cm H2O/ml.sec), whereas Ers and Rrsu did not change. Propranolol-treated animals showed an increase (p less than .001) in Rrsmax (from 0.512 +/- 0.133 to 0.664 +/- 0.144 cm H2O/ml.sec), Rrsu (p less than 0.01) from 0.252 +/- 0.09 to 0.345 +/- 0.139 cm H2O/ml.sec, and Ers (p less than 0.001) (from 4.565 +/- 0.933 to 5.402 +/- 1.24 cm H2O/ml) after bleeding. The results indicate that the immediate effects of acute bleeding on respiratory mechanics are significantly influenced by catecholamines.

Hypovolemic shock resuscitation with hyperosmotic 7.5% NaCl: effects on respiratory system mechanics.

The infusion of the hypertonic 7.5% NaCl solution stimulates the afferent vagal innervation of the lungs. In order to verify if this reflex elicits any respiratory mechanical alterations, normovolemic (n = 18) and hypovolemic (n = 18) (20 ml of shed blood/kg) guinea pigs were studied. The animals were assigned to groups of nine receiving either isotonic 0.9% NaCl or hypertonic 7.5% NaCl solutions (4 ml/kg body weight). Passive respiratory system elastance (Ers) and the maximal value of the resistance (Rrsmax) were measured. The latter was further partitioned into its minimal value (Rrsu) using the constant flow inflation method. Ers, Rrsmax, Rrsmin, and Rrsu were measured before and at 0, 2, 5, 10, and 15 minutes following the infusion. The results showed that both isotonic and hypertonic solutions, at the given volume rate, caused no significant alterations of respiratory mechanics in normovolemic and hypovolemic animals.