Navigating causal reasoning in sustainability science.

When reasoning about causes of sustainability problems and possible solutions, sustainability scientists rely on disciplinary-based understanding of cause-effect relations. These disciplinary assumptions enable and constrain how causal knowledge is generated, yet they are rarely made explicit. In a multidisciplinary field like sustainability science, lack of understanding differences in causal reasoning impedes our ability to address complex sustainability problems. To support navigating the diversity of causal reasoning, we articulate when and how during a research process researchers engage in causal reasoning and discuss four common ideas about causation that direct it. This articulation provides guidance for researchers to make their own assumptions and choices transparent and to interpret other researchers' approaches. Understanding how causal claims are made and justified enables sustainability researchers to evaluate the diversity of causal claims, to build collaborations across disciplines, and to assess whether proposed solutions are suitable for a given problem.

Pressure pain sensitivity: A new stress measure in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes?

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is associated with general- and diabetes-specific stress which has multiple adverse effects. Hence measuring stress is of great importance. An algometer measuring pressure pain sensitivity (PPS) has been shown to correlate to certain stress measures in adults. However, it has never been investigated in children and adolescents. The aim of our study was to examine associations between PPS and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), salivary cortisol and two questionnaires as well as to identify whether the algometer can be used as a clinical tool among children and adolescents with T1D. Eighty-three participants aged 6-18 years and diagnosed with T1D were included in this study with data from two study visits. Salivary cortisol, PPS and questionnaires were collected, measured, and answered on site. HbA1c was collected from medical files. We found correlations between PPS and HbA1c (rho = 0.35, P = 0.046), cortisol (rho = -0.25, P = 0.02) and Perceived Stress Scale (rho = -0.44, P = 0.02) in different subgroups based on age. Males scored higher in PPS than females (P < 0.001). We found PPS to be correlated to HbA1c but otherwise inconsistent in results. High PPS values indicated either measurement difficulties or hypersensibility towards pain.

Performance of a dual-hormone closed-loop system versus insulin-only closed-loop system in adolescents with type 1 diabetes. A single-blind, randomized, controlled, crossover trial.

Objective: To assess the efficacy and safety of a dual-hormone (DH [insulin and glucagon]) closed-loop system compared to a single-hormone (SH [insulin only]) closed-loop system in adolescents with type 1 diabetes. Methods: This was a 26-hour, two-period, randomized, crossover, inpatient study involving 11 adolescents with type 1 diabetes (nine males [82%], mean ± SD age 14.8 ± 1.4 years, diabetes duration 5.7 ± 2.3 years). Except for the treatment configuration of the DiaCon Artificial Pancreas: DH or SH, experimental visits were identical consisting of: an overnight stay (10:00 pm until 7:30 am), several meals/snacks, and a 45-minute bout of moderate intensity continuous exercise. The primary endpoint was percentage of time spent with sensor glucose values below range (TBR [<3.9 mmol/L]) during closed-loop control over the 26-h period (5:00 pm, day 1 to 7:00 pm, day 2). Results: Overall, there were no differences between DH and SH for the following glycemic outcomes (median [IQR]): TBR 1.6 [0.0, 2.4] vs. 1.28 [0.16, 3.19]%, p=1.00; time in range (TIR [3.9-10.0 mmol/L]) 68.4 [48.7, 76.8] vs. 75.7 [69.8, 87.1]%, p=0.08; and time above range (TAR [>10.0 mmol/L]) 28.1 [18.1, 49.8] vs. 23.3 [12.3, 27.2]%, p=0.10. Mean ( ± SD) glucose was higher during DH than SH (8.7 ( ± 3.2) vs. 8.1 ( ± 3.0) mmol/L, p<0.001) but coefficient of variation was similar (34.8 ( ± 6.8) vs. 37.3 ( ± 8.6)%, p=0.20). The average amount of rescue carbohydrates was similar between DH and SH (6.8 ( ± 12.3) vs. 9.5 ( ± 15.4) grams/participant/visit, p=0.78). Overnight, TIR was higher, TAR was lower during the SH visit compared to DH. During and after exercise (4:30 pm until 7 pm) the SH configuration produced higher TIR, but similar TAR and TBR compared to the DH configuration. Conclusions: DH and SH performed similarly in adolescents with type 1 diabetes during a 26-hour inpatient monitoring period involving several metabolic challenges including feeding and exercise. However, during the night and around exercise, the SH configuration outperformed DH.

Untangling social-ecological interactions: A methods portfolio approach to tackling contemporary sustainability challenges in fisheries.

Meeting the objectives of sustainable fisheries management requires attention to the complex interactions between humans, institutions and ecosystems that give rise to fishery outcomes. Traditional approaches to studying fisheries often do not fully capture, nor focus on these complex interactions between people and ecosystems. Despite advances in the scope and scale of interactions encompassed by more holistic methods, for example ecosystem-based fisheries management approaches, no single method can adequately capture the complexity of human-nature interactions. Approaches that combine quantitative and qualitative analytical approaches are necessary to generate a deeper understanding of these interactions and illuminate pathways to address fisheries sustainability challenges. However, combining methods is inherently challenging and requires understanding multiple methods from different, often disciplinarily distinct origins, demanding reflexivity of the researchers involved. Social-ecological systems' research has a history of utilising combinations of methods across the social and ecological realms to account for spatial and temporal dynamics, uncertainty and feedbacks that are key components of fisheries. We describe several categories of analytical methods (statistical modelling, network analysis, dynamic modelling, qualitative analysis and controlled behavioural experiments) and highlight their applications in fisheries research, strengths and limitations, data needs and overall objectives. We then discuss important considerations of a methods portfolio development process, including reflexivity, epistemological and ontological concerns and illustrate these considerations via three case studies. We show that, by expanding their methods portfolios, researchers will be better equipped to study the complex interactions shaping fisheries and contribute to solutions for sustainable fisheries management.

Association of type 1 diabetes and educational achievement in 16-20-year-olds: A Danish nationwide register study.

AIMS: The objective of the study was to compare grade point averages (GPAs) on compulsory school exit exams (exam GPA) and educational attainment at age 16 and 20 for individuals with and without type 1 diabetes. METHODS: This study was a population-based retrospective cohort study, which included the 1991 to 1998 birth cohorts in Denmark. Follow-up was conducted at age 16 and 20 (follow-up period; 1 January, 2007 to 31 December, 2018). There were 2083 individuals with and 555,929 individuals without type 1 diabetes. Linear regression and generalized linear models compared outcomes with and without adjustments for socio-economic characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 558,012 individuals (51% males) were followed to the age of 20. Having type 1 diabetes was associated with a lower exam GPA when adjusting for socio-economic status (difference: -0.05 (95% CI, -0.09 to -0.01), a higher relative risk of not completing compulsory school by age 16 (1.37, 95% CI, 1.22 to 1.53)), and a higher relative risk of not completing or being enrolled in upper secondary education by age 20 (1.05, 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.10). Haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) <58 mmol/mol (7.5%), >7 BGM/day and insulin pump use were associated with better educational achievement. CONCLUSION: Type 1 diabetes was associated with a marginally lower exam GPA and a higher risk of not completing compulsory school by age 16 and lower educational attainment by age 20. The findings were modified by HbA1c, BGM and insulin pump use.

Fish provision in a changing environment: The buffering effect of regional trade networks.

Local and regional trade networks in small-scale fisheries are important for food security and livelihoods across the world. Such networks consist of both economic flows and social relationships, which connect different production regions to different types of fish demand. The structure of such trade networks, and the actions that take place within them (e.g., people fishing, buying, selling), can influence the capacity of small-scale fisheries to provide sufficient fish in a changing social and ecological context. In this study, we aim to understand the importance of networks between different types of traders that access spatially-distinct fish stocks for the availability and variability of fish provision. We deployed a mixed-methods approach, combining agent-based modelling, network analysis and qualitative data from a small-scale fishery in Baja California Sur, Mexico. The empirical data allowed us to investigate the trade processes that occur within trade networks; and the generation of distinct, empirically-informed network structures. Formalized in an agent-based model, these network structures enable analysis of how different trade networks affect the dynamics of fish provision and the exploitation level of fish stocks. Model results reveal how trade strategies based on social relationships and species diversification can lead to spillover effects between fish species and fishing regions. We found that the proportion of different trader types and their spatial connectivity have the potential to increase fish provision. However, they can also increase overexploitation depending on the specific connectivity patterns and trader types. Moreover, increasing connectivity generally leads to positive outcomes for some individual traders, but this does not necessarily imply better outcomes at the system level. Overall, our model provides an empirically-grounded, stylized representation of a fisheries trading system, and reveals important trade-offs that should be considered when evaluating the potential effect of future changes in regional trade networks.

Governing the commons beyond harvesting: An empirical illustration from fishing.

Harvesting has received most theoretical, empirical, and policy attention towards understanding common-pool resource dilemmas. Yet, pre-harvesting and post-harvesting activities influence harvesting outcomes as well. Broadening the analytical focus beyond harvesting is needed to imagine new ways of theorizing and governing the commons. Fishing-which is synonymous with harvesting-is a case in point. We contribute to a beyond-harvesting research agenda by incorporating concepts from common-pool resources theory that have not received enough attention in the literature. We compare two ubiquitous self-organizing strategies (i.e., fishing cooperatives and patron-client relationships) fishers use to access means of production and analyze their effects on the distribution of benefits resulting from harvesting. We use rarely available longitudinal data of monetary loans to fishers in Mexican small-scale fisheries and find that cooperatives can deliver broader distribution of benefits than patron-client relationships. Our study highlights the importance of historically and contextually situating analyses linking the effects of pre-harvesting processes on harvesting outcomes, and the benefits of broadening the scope of inquiry beyond a narrow policy attention on harvesting to move towards a fuller understanding of commons dilemmas.

Perinatal Whole Blood Zinc Status and Cytokines, Adipokines, and Other Immune Response Proteins.

(1) Background: Zinc is an essential micronutrient and zinc deficiency is associated with immune dysfunction. The neonatal immune system is immature, and therefore an optimal neonatal zinc status may be important. The aim of this study was to investigate the possible association between neonatal whole blood (WB)-Zinc content and several immune markers. (2) Methods: In total, 398 healthy newborns (199 who later developed type 1 diabetes and 199 controls) from the Danish Newborn Screening Biobank had neonatal dried blood spots (NDBS) analyzed for WB-Zinc content and (i) cytokines: Interleukin (IL)-1ß, IL-4, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-12 (p70), interferon gamma, tumor necrosis factor alpha, and transforming growth factor beta; (ii) adipokines: leptin and adiponectin; (iii) other immune response proteins: C-reactive protein (CRP), and mannose-binding lectin (MBL), and soluble triggering receptors expressed on myeloid cells1 (sTREM-1). WB-Zinc content was determined using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. For each analyte, the relative change in mean level was modelled by a robust log-normal model regression. (3) Results: No association was found between WB-Zinc content and all the immune response markers in either the unadjusted or adjusted models overall or when stratifying by case status. (4) Conclusions: In healthy Danish neonates, WB-Zinc content was not associated with cytokines, adipokines, CRP, MBL or sTREM, which does not indicate a strong immunological function of neonatal zinc status.

Increased lipid and lipoprotein concentrations in anorexia nervosa: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Alterations in blood lipid concentrations in anorexia nervosa (AN) have been reported; however, the extent, mechanism, and normalization with weight restoration remain unknown. We conducted a systematic review and a meta-analysis to evaluate changes in lipid concentrations in acutely-ill AN patients compared with healthy controls (HC) and to examine the effect of partial weight restoration. METHOD: A systematic literature review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO: CRD42017078014) were conducted for original peer-reviewed articles. RESULTS: Forty-eight studies were eligible for review; 33 for meta-analyses calculating mean differences (MD). Total cholesterol (MD = 22.7 mg/dL, 95% CI = 12.5, 33.0), high-density lipoprotein (HDL; MD = 3.4 mg/dL, CI = 0.3, 7.0), low-density lipoprotein (LDL; MD = 12.2 mg/dL, CI = 4.4, 20.1), triglycerides (TG; MD = 8.1 mg/dL, CI = 1.7, 14.5), and apolipoprotein B (Apo B; MD = 11.8 mg/dL, CI = 2.3, 21.2) were significantly higher in acutely-ill AN than HC. Partially weight-restored AN patients had higher total cholesterol (MD = 14.8 mg/dL, CI = 2.1, 27.5) and LDL (MD = 16.1 mg/dL, CI = 2.3, 30.0). Pre- versus post-weight restoration differences in lipid concentrations did not differ significantly. DISCUSSION: We report aggregate evidence for elevated lipid concentrations in acutely-ill AN patients compared with HC, some of which persist after partial weight restoration. This could signal an underlying adaptation or dysregulation not fully reversed by weight restoration. Although concentrations differed between AN and HC, most lipid concentrations remained within the reference range and meta-analyses were limited by the number of available studies.

OBJETIVO: En la anorexia nervosa (AN) han sido reportadas alteraciones en las concentraciones de lípidos sanguíneos; sin embargo, la extensión, mecanismo y normalización con la restauración del peso continúa aún desconocida. Hicimos una revisión sistemática y meta-análisis para evaluar los cambios en las concentraciones de lípidos en pacientes agudamente enfermas de AN comparados con controles sanos (HC) y para examinar el efecto parcial de la restauración de peso. MÉTODO: Una revisión sistemática de la literatura y meta-análisis (PROSPERO: CRD42017078014) fueron llevados a cabo en artículos originales revisados por pares. RESULTADOS: Un total de cuarenta y ocho estudios fueron elegibles para revisión; 33 para meta-análisis calculando las diferencias promedio (MD). Colesterol total (MD = 22.7 mg/dL, 95% CI = 12.5, 33.0), lipoproteína de alta densidad (HDL; MD = 3.4 mg/dL, CI = 0.3, 7.0), lipoproteína de baja densidad (LDL; MD = 12.2 mg/dL, CI = 4.4, 20.1), triglicéridos (TG; MD = 8.1 mg/dL, CI = 1.7, 14.5), y apolipoproteína B (Apo B; MD = 11.6 mg/dL, CI = 2.3, 21.2) fueron significativamente elevados en los pacientes agudamente enfermos de AN en comparación con los controles sanos (HC). Los pacientes con AN parcialmente recuperados de peso tuvieron niveles más elevados de colesterol total (MD = 14.8 mg/dL, CI = 2.1, 27.5) y de LDL (MD = 16.1 mg/dL, CI = 2.3, 30.0). Las diferencias pre- versus post- restauración de peso en las concentraciones de lípidos no difirieron significativamente. DISCUSIÓN: Reportamos evidencia agregada de concentraciones elevadas de lípidos en pacientes agudamente enfermos de AN comparados con controles sanos (HC), algunos de los cuales persisten después de la restauración parcial de peso. Esto podría señalar una adaptación subyacente o desregulación no completamente revertida por la restauración del peso. Aunque las concentraciones difirieron entre AN y HC, la mayoría de las concentraciones de lípidos permanecieron dentro del rango de referencia y los meta-análisis fueron limitados por el número de estudios disponibles.

Poor Metabolic Control in Children and Adolescents With Type 1 Diabetes and Psychiatric Comorbidity.

OBJECTIVE: Type 1 diabetes is associated with an increased risk of psychiatric morbidities. We investigated predictors and diabetes outcomes in a pediatric population with and without psychiatric comorbidities. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Data from the Danish Registry of Childhood and Adolescent Diabetes (DanDiabKids) and National Patient Register were collected (1996-2015) for this population-based study. We used Kaplan-Meier plots to investigate whether age at type 1 diabetes onset and average glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels during the first 2 years after onset of type 1 diabetes (excluding HbA1c at debut) were associated with the risk of being diagnosed with a psychiatric disorder. Mixed-effects linear and logistic regression models were used to analyze HbA1c, BMI, severe hypoglycemia (SH), or ketoacidosis as outcomes, with psychiatric comorbidities as explanatory factor. RESULTS: Among 4,725 children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes identified in both registers, 1,035 were diagnosed with at least one psychiatric disorder. High average HbA1c levels during the first 2 years predicted higher risk of psychiatric diagnoses. Patients with psychiatric comorbidity had higher HbA1c levels (0.22% [95% CI 0.15; 0.29]; 2.40 mmol/mol [1.62; 3.18]; P < 0.001) and an increased risk of hospitalization with diabetic ketoacidosis (1.80 [1.18; 2.76]; P = 0.006). We found no associations with BMI or SH. CONCLUSIONS: High average HbA1c levels during the first 2 years after onset of type 1 diabetes might indicate later psychiatric comorbidities. Psychiatric comorbidity in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes increases the risk of poor metabolic outcomes. Early focus on the disease burden might improve outcomes.

A Danish version of self-efficacy in diabetes self-management: A valid and reliable questionnaire affected by age and sex.

BACKGROUND: Managing the chronic illness type 1 diabetes (T1D) is extremely demanding, especially during adolescence. Self-efficacy is belief in one's own capabilities and this is crucial for diabetes management. Having a valid method for measuring self-efficacy is important. OBJECTIVE: Our aims were to psychometrically validate a Danish version of the self-efficacy in diabetes management (SEDM) questionnaire, and to examine the relationship between background variables and self-efficacy. METHODS: All Danish adolescents with T1D (n = 1075) were invited to participate in our study. In total, 689 agreed to participate and 602 completed the study. Data were collected using a web-based survey. All participants were asked to provide a blood sample for HbA1c measurement. Graphical log-linear Rasch modeling (GLLRM) was used to validate the questionnaire and its reliability was assessed using Monte Carlo simulation. RESULTS: We found the questionnaire to be valid and reliable, but it had a dual structure that suggested a need for 2 separate subscales. One subscale related to practical (SEDM1) and the other to emotional (SEDM2) aspects of diabetes management. Both subscales were targeted toward adolescents with lower self-efficacy and were associated with HbA1c. SEDM1 was influenced by treatment modality and age. In SEDM2 we found an interaction between age and sex. CONCLUSION: The Danish version of the SEDM questionnaire should be divided into two parts, each with a valid and reliable subscale for self-efficacy measurement. The relationship between self-efficacy and age seems to differ between boys and girls.

Micro-level explanations for emergent patterns of self-governance arrangements in small-scale fisheries-A modeling approach.

Small-scale fisheries (SSFs) in developing countries are expected to play a significant role in poverty alleviation and enhancing food security in the decades to come. To realize this expectation, a better understanding of their informal self-governance arrangements is critical for developing policies that can improve fishers' livelihoods and lead to sustainable ecosystem stewardship. The goal of this paper is to develop a more nuanced understanding of micro-level factors-such as fishers' characteristics and behavior-to explain observed differences in self-governance arrangements in Northwest Mexico. We focus on two ubiquitous forms of self-governance: hierarchical non-cooperative arrangements between fishers and fishbuyers, such as patron-client relationships (PCs), versus more cooperative arrangements amongst fishers, such as fishing cooperatives (co-ops). We developed an agent-based model of an archetypical SSF that captures key hypotheses from in-depth fieldwork in Northwest Mexico of fishers' day-to-day fishing and trading. Results from our model indicate that high diversity in fishers' reliability, and low initial trust between co-op members, makes co-ops' establishment difficult. PCs cope better with this kind of diversity because, in contrast to co-ops, they have more flexibility in choosing whom to work with. However, once co-ops establish, they cope better with seasonal variability in fish abundance and provide long-term security for the fishers. We argue that existing levels of trust and diversity among fishers matter for different self-governance arrangements to establish and persist, and should therefore be taken into account when developing better, targeted policies for improved SSFs governance.

Strategies for sustainable management of renewable resources during environmental change.

As a consequence of global environmental change, management strategies that can deal with unexpected change in resource dynamics are becoming increasingly important. In this paper we undertake a novel approach to studying resource growth problems using a computational form of adaptive management to find optimal strategies for prevalent natural resource management dilemmas. We scrutinize adaptive management, or learning-by-doing, to better understand how to simultaneously manage and learn about a system when its dynamics are unknown. We study important trade-offs in decision-making with respect to choosing optimal actions (harvest efforts) for sustainable management during change. This is operationalized through an artificially intelligent model where we analyze how different trends and fluctuations in growth rates of a renewable resource affect the performance of different management strategies. Our results show that the optimal strategy for managing resources with declining growth is capable of managing resources with fluctuating or increasing growth at a negligible cost, creating in a management strategy that is both efficient and robust towards future unknown changes. To obtain this strategy, adaptive management should strive for: high learning rates to new knowledge, high valuation of future outcomes and modest exploration around what is perceived as the optimal action.