A Scoping Review and Taxonomy of Epidemiological-Macroeconomic Models of COVID-19.

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic placed significant strain on many health systems and economies. Mitigation policies decreased health impacts but had major macroeconomic impact. This article reviews models combining epidemiological and macroeconomic projections to enable policy makers to consider both macroeconomic and health objectives. METHODS: A scoping review of epidemiological-macroeconomic models of COVID-19 was conducted, covering preprints, working articles, and journal publications. We assessed model methodologies, scope, and application to empirical data. RESULTS: We found 80 articles modeling both the epidemiological and macroeconomic outcomes of COVID-19. Model scope is often limited to the impact of lockdown on health and total gross domestic product or aggregate consumption and to high-income countries. Just 14% of models assess disparities or poverty. Most models fall under 4 categories: compartmental-utility-maximization models, epidemiological models with stylized macroeconomic projections, epidemiological models linked to computable general equilibrium or input-output models, and epidemiological-economic agent-based models. We propose a taxonomy comparing these approaches to guide future model development. CONCLUSIONS: The epidemiological-macroeconomic models of COVID-19 identified have varying complexity and meet different modeling needs. Priorities for future modeling include increasing developing country applications, assessing disparities and poverty, and estimating of long-run impacts. This may require better integration between epidemiologists and economists.

Building the vector in: construction practices and the invasion and persistence of Anopheles stephensi in Jigjiga, Ethiopia.

Anopheles stephensi is a major vector of malaria in Asia and the Arabian Peninsula, and its recent invasion into Africa poses a major threat to malaria control and elimination efforts on the continent. The mosquito is well adapted to urban environments, and its presence in Africa could potentially lead to an increase in malaria transmission in cities. Most of the knowledge about An stephensi ecology in Africa has been generated from studies conducted during the rainy season, when vectors are most abundant. Here, we provide evidence from the peak of the dry season in the city of Jigjiga in Ethiopia, and report An stephensi immature stages infesting predominantly in water reservoirs made to support construction operations (ie, in construction sites or associated with brick-manufacturing businesses). Political and economic changes in Ethiopia (particularly the Somali Region) have fuelled an unprecedented construction boom since 2018 that, in our opinion, has been instrumental in the establishment, persistence, and propagation of An stephensi via the year-round availability of perennial larval habitats associated with construction. We argue that larval source management during the dry season might provide a unique opportunity for focused control of An stephensi in Jigjiga and similar areas.

Rice farmers' knowledge, attitudes and practices towards mosquitoes in irrigation schemes in Côte d'Ivoire: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Irrigated rice cultivation in sub-Saharan Africa not only brings more malaria vectors to nearby communities, but also greater malaria risk. To aid the implementation of mosquito control in rice-growing communities, it is necessary to understand how farmers understand, view and manage their responsibility in mosquito generation and whether they are interested in coordinating to minimize it. METHODS: Qualitative methods (observation grids, semi-structured in-depth interviews and focus group discussions) were used to reveal the perceptions of mosquitoes and their control in two irrigated rice farming communities in central Côte d'Ivoire near the M'bé and Lokapli irrigation schemes. RESULTS: All rice farmers viewed mosquitoes as severe nuisances, and most acknowledged that they caused djèkouadjo (malaria) and were less numerous during harmattan (dry season). Many study participants believed that mosquitoes originated from grasses and stagnant water around villages. Only those living closer in proximity (~ 1 km) to the paddies believed that mosquitoes came from the bas-fonds (irrigated lowlands). However, they did not associate mosquito production with rice cultivation. Some farmers believed that there were more mosquitoes in recent years than historically because of the dam construction, but remarked on the importance of the dam (and bas-fonds) for their livelihood. Many farmers were not convinced that mosquito control could occur at farm-level. CONCLUSIONS: To enhance accountability amongst rice farmers, there is a need for greater awareness on the rice-mosquito link, and emphasis that the link does not imply a trade-off between food production and health. Training should not only be directed towards farming communities, but also agricultural and health extension workers. Future riceland mosquito control methods must focus on improving crop productivity and address collective action problems that may occur.

Mapping Malaria Vector Habitats in West Africa: Drone Imagery and Deep Learning Analysis for Targeted Vector Surveillance.

Disease control programs are needed to identify the breeding sites of mosquitoes, which transmit malaria and other diseases, in order to target interventions and identify environmental risk factors. The increasing availability of very-high-resolution drone data provides new opportunities to find and characterize these vector breeding sites. Within this study, drone images from two malaria-endemic regions in Burkina Faso and Côte d'Ivoire were assembled and labeled using open-source tools. We developed and applied a workflow using region-of-interest-based and deep learning methods to identify land cover types associated with vector breeding sites from very-high-resolution natural color imagery. Analysis methods were assessed using cross-validation and achieved maximum Dice coefficients of 0.68 and 0.75 for vegetated and non-vegetated water bodies, respectively. This classifier consistently identified the presence of other land cover types associated with the breeding sites, obtaining Dice coefficients of 0.88 for tillage and crops, 0.87 for buildings and 0.71 for roads. This study establishes a framework for developing deep learning approaches to identify vector breeding sites and highlights the need to evaluate how results will be used by control programs.

Developing African arbovirus networks and capacity strengthening in arbovirus surveillance and response: findings from a virtual workshop.

This meeting report presents the key findings and discussion points of a 3-h virtual workshop, held on 21 September 2022, and organized by the "Resilience Against Future Threats through Vector Control (RAFT)" research consortium. The workshop aimed to identify priorities for advancing arbovirus research, network and capacity strengthening in Africa. Due to increasing human population growth, urbanization and global movement (trade, tourism, travel), mosquito-borne arboviral diseases, such as dengue, Chikungunya and Zika, are increasing globally in their distribution and prevalence. This report summarizes the presentations that reviewed the current status of arboviruses in Africa, including: (i) key findings from the recent WHO/Special Programme for Research & Training in Tropical Diseases (WHO/TDR) survey in 47 African countries that revealed deep and widespread shortfalls in the capacity to cope with arbovirus outbreak preparedness, surveillance and control; (ii) the value of networking in this context, with examples of African countries regarding arbovirus surveillance; and (iii) the main priorities identified by the breakout groups on "research gaps", "networks" and "capacity strengthening".

Towards environmental detection, quantification, and molecular characterization of Anopheles stephensi and Aedes aegypti from experimental larval breeding sites.

The invasion and establishment of An. stephensi mosquitoes in the Horn of Africa represents a significant regional threat, which may jeopardise malaria control, particularly in urban areas which were formally free from disease transmission. Novel vector surveillance methods are urgently needed, both agnostic to mosquito larval morphology, and simple to implement at the sampling stage. Using new multiplex TaqMan assays, specifically targeting An. stephensi and Ae. aegypti, we validated the use of environmental DNA (eDNA) for simultaneous vector detection in shared artificial breeding sites. Study findings demonstrated that An. stephensi and Ae. aegypti eDNA deposited by as few as one second instar larva in 1L of water was detectable. Characterization of molecular insecticide resistance mechanisms, using novel amplicon-sequencing panels for both vector species, was possible from eDNA shed by as few as 16-32 s instar larvae in 50 ml of water. An. stephensi eDNA, derived from emergent pupae for 24 h, was remarkably stable, and still detectable ~ 2 weeks later. eDNA surveillance has the potential to be implemented in local endemic communities and at points of country entry, to monitor the spread of invasive vector species. Further studies are required to validate the feasibility of this technique under field conditions.

Characterizing pyrethroid resistance and mechanisms in Anopheles gambiae (s.s.) and Anopheles arabiensis from 11 districts in Uganda.

Insecticide resistance threatens recent progress on malaria control in Africa. To characterize pyrethroid resistance in Uganda, Anopheles gambiae (s.s.) and Anopheles arabiensis were analyzed from 11 sites with varied vector control strategies. Mosquito larvae were collected between May 2018 and December 2020. Sites were categorized as receiving no indoor-residual spraying ('no IRS', n â€‹= â€‹3); where IRS was delivered from 2009 to 2014 and in 2017 and then discontinued ('IRS stopped', n â€‹= â€‹4); and where IRS had been sustained since 2014 ('IRS active', n â€‹= â€‹4). IRS included bendiocarb, pirimiphos methyl and clothianidin. All sites received long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) in 2017. Adult mosquitoes were exposed to pyrethroids; with or without piperonyl butoxide (PBO). Anopheles gambiae (s.s.) and An. arabiensis were identified using PCR. Anopheles gambiae (s.s.) were genotyped for Vgsc-995S/F, Cyp6aa1, Cyp6p4-I236M, ZZB-TE, Cyp4j5-L43F and Coeae1d, while An. arabiensis were examined for Vgsc-1014S/F. Overall, 2753 An. gambiae (s.l.), including 1105 An. gambiae (s.s.) and 1648 An. arabiensis were evaluated. Species composition varied by site; only nine An. gambiae (s.s.) were collected from 'IRS active' sites, precluding species-specific comparisons. Overall, mortality following exposure to permethrin and deltamethrin was 18.8% (148/788) in An. gambiae (s.s.) and 74.6% (912/1222) in An. arabiensis. Mortality was significantly lower in An. gambiae (s.s.) than in An. arabiensis in 'no IRS' sites (permethrin: 16.1 vs 67.7%, P â€‹< â€‹0.001; deltamethrin: 24.6 vs 83.7%, P â€‹< â€‹0.001) and in 'IRS stopped' sites (permethrin: 11.3 vs 63.6%, P â€‹< â€‹0.001; deltamethrin: 25.6 vs 88.9%, P â€‹< â€‹0.001). When PBO was added, mortality increased for An. gambiae (s.s.) and An. arabiensis. Most An. gambiae (s.s.) had the Vgsc-995S/F mutation (95% frequency) and the Cyp6p4-I236M resistance allele (87%), while the frequency of Cyp4j5 and Coeae1d were lower (52% and 55%, respectively). Resistance to pyrethroids was widespread and higher in An. gambiae (s.s.). Where IRS was active, An. arabiensis dominated. Addition of PBO to pyrethroids increased mortality, supporting deployment of PBO LLINs. Further surveillance of insecticide resistance and assessment of associations between genotypic markers and phenotypic outcomes are needed to better understand mechanisms of pyrethroid resistance and to guide vector control.

Impact of different mosquito collection methods on indicators of Anopheles malaria vectors in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Methods used to sample mosquitoes are important to consider when estimating entomologic metrics. Human landing catches (HLCs) are considered the gold standard for collecting malaria vectors. However, HLCs are labour intensive, can expose collectors to transmission risk, and are difficult to implement at scale. This study compared alternative methods to HLCs for collecting Anopheles mosquitoes in eastern Uganda. METHODS: Between June and November 2021, mosquitoes were collected from randomly selected households in three parishes in Tororo and Busia districts. Mosquitoes were collected indoors and outdoors using HLCs in 16 households every 4 weeks. Additional collections were done indoors with prokopack aspirators, and outdoors with pit traps, in these 16 households every 2 weeks. CDC light trap collections were done indoors in 80 households every 4 weeks. Female Anopheles mosquitoes were identified morphologically and Anopheles gambiae sensu lato were speciated using PCR. Plasmodium falciparum sporozoite testing was done with ELISA. RESULTS: Overall, 4,891 female Anopheles were collected, including 3,318 indoors and 1,573 outdoors. Compared to indoor HLCs, vector density (mosquitoes per unit collection) was lower using CDC light traps (4.24 vs 2.96, density ratio [DR] 0.70, 95% CIs 0.63-0.77, p < 0.001) and prokopacks (4.24 vs 1.82, DR 0.43, 95% CIs 0.37-0.49, p < 0.001). Sporozoite rates were similar between indoor methods, although precision was limited. Compared to outdoor HLCs, vector density was higher using pit trap collections (3.53 vs 6.43, DR 1.82, 95% CIs 1.61-2.05, p < 0.001), while the sporozoite rate was lower (0.018 vs 0.004, rate ratio [RR] 0.23, 95% CIs 0.07-0.75, p = 0.008). Prokopacks collected a higher proportion of Anopheles funestus (75.0%) than indoor HLCs (25.8%), while pit traps collected a higher proportion of Anopheles arabiensis (84.3%) than outdoor HLCs (36.9%). CONCLUSION: In this setting, the density and species of mosquitoes collected with alternative methods varied, reflecting the feeding and resting characteristics of the common vectors and the different collection approaches. These differences could impact on the accuracy of entomological indicators and estimates of malaria transmission, when using the alternative methods for sampling mosquitos, as compared to HLCs.

The control of malaria vectors in rice fields: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

The relatively stable aquatic conditions of irrigated lowland and rainfed rice, which is grown across 145 million hectares in more than 100 countries, are capable of generating large numbers of mosquito vectors of malaria, which causes more than 400,000 deaths per year worldwide. Many methods can control these vectors, but a systematic review has not previously been conducted. This study assesses whether larviciding, fish or intermittent irrigation can significantly reduce malaria vectors in rice fields whilst increasing rice yield. After a literature search for studies reporting the effect of larval control and rice cultivation practices on malaria vector densities in rice fields, 33 studies were eligible for meta-analysis. Larviciding was effective at reducing rice-field malaria vectors. Pooled analysis of five controlled time-series (CTS) studies with chemical insecticides showed an overall combined reduction of larval densities of 77% compared to no larviciding. Eight CTSs with biological larvicides showed a pooled reduction of 60% compared to no larviciding. Cultivating rice and fish together provided good control too: a pooled analysis of three CTSs showed an overall 82% reduction in anopheline larvae compared to no fish. Pooled analysis of four studies suggested that intermittent irrigation (using various timings and frequencies of drainage) is effective at reducing the abundance of late-stage anopheline larvae (pooled reduction = - 35%), but not overall immature abundance, compared to continuous flooding. We conclude that many interventions such as larvicides, fish and intermittent irrigation can provide riceland malaria vector control, but the critical obstacle to wider use is farmer acceptability. Future research should be led by the agricultural sector, with inputs from entomologists, to investigate malaria control co-benefits within high-yielding rice cultivation practices.

Changing food systems and infectious disease risks in low-income and middle-income countries.

The emergence of COVID-19 has drawn the attention of health researchers sharply back to the role that food systems can play in generating human disease burden. But emerging pandemic threats are just one dimension of the complex relationship between agriculture and infectious disease, which is evolving rapidly, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) that are undergoing rapid food system transformation. We examine this changing relationship through four current disease issues. The first is that greater investment in irrigation to improve national food security raises risks of vector-borne disease, which we illustrate with the case of malaria and rice in Africa. The second is that the intensification of livestock production in LMICs brings risks of zoonotic diseases like cysticercosis, which need to be managed as consumer demand grows. The third is that the nutritional benefits of increasing supply of fresh vegetables, fruit, and animal-sourced foods in markets in LMICs pose new food-borne disease risks, which might undermine supply. The fourth issue is that the potential human health risks of antimicrobial resistance from agriculture are intensified by changing livestock production. For each disease issue, we explore how food system transition is creating unintentional infectious disease risks, and what solutions might exist for these problems. We show that successfully addressing all of these challenges requires a coordinated approach between public health and agricultural sectors, recognising the costs and benefits of disease-reducing interventions to both, and seeking win-win solutions that are most likely to attract broad policy support and uptake by food systems.

Malaria transmission and prevalence in rice-growing versus non-rice-growing villages in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Rice fields in Africa are major breeding sites for malaria vectors. However, when reviewed in the 1990s, in settings where transmission was relatively intense, there was no tendency for malaria indices to be higher in villages with irrigated rice fields than in those without. Subsequently, intervention coverage in sub-Saharan Africa has been massively scaled up and malaria infection prevalence has halved. We re-examined this rice-malaria relationship to assess whether, with lower malaria transmission, malaria risk is greater in rice-growing than in non-rice-growing areas. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched EMBASE, Global Health, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science to identify observational studies published between Jan 1, 1900, and Sept 18, 2020. Studies were considered eligible if they were observational studies (cross-sectional, case-control, or cohort) comparing epidemiological or entomological outcomes of interest between people living in rice-growing and non-rice-growing rural communities in sub-Saharan Africa. Studies with pregnant women, displaced people, and military personnel as participants were excluded because they were considered not representative of a typical community. Data were extracted with use of a standardised data extraction form. The primary outcomes were parasite prevalence (P falciparum parasite rate age-standardised to 2-10-year-olds, calculated from total numbers of participants and number of infections [confirmed by microscopy or rapid diagnostic test] in each group) and clinical malaria incidence (number of diagnoses [fever with Plasmodium parasitaemia confirmed by microscopy or rapid diagnostic test] per 1000 person-days in each group). We did random-effects meta-analyses to estimate the pooled risk ratio (RR) for malaria parasite prevalence and incidence rate ratio (IRR) for clinical malaria in rice-growing versus non-rice-growing villages. RRs were compared in studies conducted before and after 2003 (chosen to mark the start of the mass scale-up of antimalaria interventions). This study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020204936). FINDINGS: Of the 2913 unique studies identified and screened, 53 studies (including 113 160 participants across 14 African countries) were eligible for inclusion. In studies done before 2003, malaria parasite prevalence was not significantly different in rice-growing versus non-rice-growing villages (pooled RR 0·82 [95% CI 0·63-1·06]; 16 studies, 99 574 participants); however, in post-2003 studies, prevalence was significantly higher in rice-growing versus non-rice growing villages (1·73 [1·01-2·96]; seven studies, 14 002 participants). Clinical malaria incidence was not associated with residence in rice-growing versus non-rice-growing areas (IRR 0·75 [95% CI 0·47-1·18], four studies, 77 890). Potential limitations of this study include its basis on observational studies (with evidence quality rated as very low according to the GRADE approach), as well as its omission for the effects of seasonality and type of rice being cultivated. Risk of bias and inconsistencies was relatively serious, with I2 greater than 90% indicating considerable heterogeneity. INTERPRETATION: Irrigated rice-growing communities in sub-Saharan Africa are exposed to greater malaria risk, as well as more mosquitoes. As increasing rice production and eliminating malaria are two major development goals in Africa, there is an urgent need to improve methods for growing rice without producing mosquitoes. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust Our Planet Our Health programme, CGIAR Agriculture for Nutrition and Health.

Technical Workflow Development for Integrating Drone Surveys and Entomological Sampling to Characterise Aquatic Larval Habitats of Anopheles funestus in Agricultural Landscapes in Côte d'Ivoire.

Land-use practices such as agriculture can impact mosquito vector breeding ecology, resulting in changes in disease transmission. The typical breeding habitats of Africa's second most important malaria vector Anopheles funestus are large, semipermanent water bodies, which make them potential candidates for targeted larval source management. This is a technical workflow for the integration of drone surveys and mosquito larval sampling, designed for a case study aiming to characterise An. funestus breeding sites near two villages in an agricultural setting in Côte d'Ivoire. Using satellite remote sensing data, we developed an environmentally and spatially representative sampling frame and conducted paired mosquito larvae and drone mapping surveys from June to August 2021. To categorise the drone imagery, we also developed a land cover classification scheme with classes relative to An. funestus breeding ecology. We sampled 189 potential breeding habitats, of which 119 (63%) were positive for the Anopheles genus and nine (4.8%) were positive for An. funestus. We mapped 30.42 km2 of the region of interest including all water bodies which were sampled for larvae. These data can be used to inform targeted vector control efforts, although its generalisability over a large region is limited by the fine-scale nature of this study area. This paper develops protocols for integrating drone surveys and statistically rigorous entomological sampling, which can be adjusted to collect data on vector breeding habitats in other ecological contexts. Further research using data collected in this study can enable the development of deep-learning algorithms for identifying An. funestus breeding habitats across rural agricultural landscapes in Côte d'Ivoire and the analysis of risk factors for these sites.

Impact of seasonality and malaria control interventions on Anopheles density and species composition from three areas of Uganda with differing malaria endemicity.

BACKGROUND: Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) are the malaria control interventions primarily responsible for reductions in transmission intensity across sub-Saharan Africa. These interventions, however, may have differential impact on Anopheles species composition and density. This study examined the changing pattern of Anopheles species in three areas of Uganda with markedly different transmission intensities and different levels of vector control. METHODS: From October 2011 to June 2016 mosquitoes were collected monthly using CDC light traps from 100 randomly selected households in three areas: Walukuba (low transmission), Kihihi (moderate transmission) and Nagongera (high transmission). LLINs were distributed in November 2013 in Walukuba and Nagongera and in June 2014 in Kihihi. IRS was implemented only in Nagongera, with three rounds of bendiocarb delivered between December 2014 and June 2015. Mosquito species were identified morphologically and by PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction). RESULTS: In Walukuba, LLIN distribution was associated with a decline in Anopheles funestus vector density (0.07 vs 0.02 mosquitoes per house per night, density ratio [DR] 0.34, 95% CI: 0.18-0.65, p = 0.001), but not Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto (s.s.) nor Anopheles arabiensis. In Kihihi, over 98% of mosquitoes were An. gambiae s.s. and LLIN distribution was associated with a decline in An. gambiae s.s. vector density (4.00 vs 2.46, DR 0.68, 95% CI: 0.49-0.94, p = 0.02). In Nagongera, the combination of LLINs and multiple rounds of IRS was associated with almost complete elimination of An. gambiae s.s. (28.0 vs 0.17, DR 0.004, 95% CI: 0.002-0.009, p < 0.001), and An. funestus sensu lato (s.l.) (3.90 vs 0.006, DR 0.001, 95% CI: 0.0005-0.004, p < 0.001), with a less pronounced decline in An. arabiensis (9.18 vs 2.00, DR 0.15 95% CI: 0.07-0.33, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: LLIN distribution was associated with reductions in An. funestus s.l. in the lowest transmission site and An. gambiae s.s. in the moderate transmission site. In the highest transmission site, a combination of LLINs and multiple rounds of IRS was associated with the near collapse of An. gambiae s.s. and An. funestus s.l. Following IRS, An. arabiensis, a behaviourally resilient vector, became the predominant species, which may have implications for malaria vector control activities. Development of interventions targeted at outdoor biting remains a priority.

The consequences of declining population access to insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) on net use patterns and physical degradation of nets after 22 months of ownership.

BACKGROUND: As insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) wear out and are disposed, some household members are prioritized to use remaining ITNs. This study assessed how nets are allocated within households to individuals of different age categories as ITNs are lost or damaged and as new ITNs are obtained. The study also explored how ITN allocation affects ITN durability. METHODS: A cross-sectional household survey and ITN durability study was conducted among 2,875 households across Tanzania to determine the proportion of nets that remain protective (serviceable) 22 months after net distribution aiming for universal coverage. Allocation of study nets within houses, and re-allocation of ITNs when new universal replacement campaign (URC) nets arrived in study households in Musoma District, was also assessed. RESULTS: Some 57.0% (95% CI 53.9-60.1%) of households had sufficient ITNs for every household member, while 84.4% (95% CI 82.4-86.4%) of the population had access to an ITN within their household (assuming 1 net covers every 2 members). In households with sufficient nets, 77.5% of members slept under ITNs. In households without sufficient nets, pregnant women (54.6%), children < 5 years (45.8%) and adults (42.1%) were prioritized, with fewer school-age children 5-14 years (35.9%), youths 15-24 years (28.1%) and seniors > 65 years (32.6%) sleeping under ITNs. Crowding ([Formula: see text] 3 people sleeping under nets) was twice as common among people residing in houses without sufficient nets for all age groups, apart from children < 5. Nets were less likely to be serviceable if: [Formula: see text] 3 people slept under them (OR 0.50 (95% CI 0.40-0.63)), or if nets were used by school-age children (OR 0.72 (95% CI 0.56-0.93)), or if the net product was Olyset®. One month after the URC, only 23.6% (95% CI 16.7-30.6%) of the population had access to a URC ITN in Musoma district. Householders in Musoma district continued the use of old ITNs even with the arrival of new URC nets. CONCLUSION: Users determined the useful life of ITNs and prioritized pregnant women and children < 5 to serviceable ITNs. When household net access declines, users adjust by crowding under remaining nets, which further reduces ITN lifespan. School-age children that commonly harbour gametocytes that mediate malaria transmission are compelled to sleep under unserviceable nets, crowd under nets or remain uncovered. However, they were accommodated by the arrival of new nets. More frequent ITN delivery through the school net programme in combination with mass distribution campaigns is essential to maximize ITN effectiveness.

Achieving global malaria eradication in changing landscapes.

Land use and land cover changes, such as deforestation, agricultural expansion and urbanization, are one of the largest anthropogenic environmental changes globally. Recent initiatives to evaluate the feasibility of malaria eradication have highlighted impacts of landscape changes on malaria transmission and the potential of these changes to undermine malaria control and elimination efforts. Multisectoral approaches are needed to detect and minimize negative impacts of land use and land cover changes on malaria transmission while supporting development aiding malaria control, elimination and ultimately eradication. Pathways through which land use and land cover changes disrupt social and ecological systems to increase or decrease malaria risks are outlined, identifying priorities and opportunities for a global malaria eradication campaign. The impacts of land use and land cover changes on malaria transmission are complex and highly context-specific, with effects changing over time and space. Landscape changes are only one element of a complex development process with wider economic and social dimensions affecting human health and wellbeing. While deforestation and other landscape changes threaten to undermine malaria control efforts and have driven the emergence of zoonotic malaria, most of the malaria elimination successes have been underpinned by agricultural development and land management. Malaria eradication is not feasible without addressing these changing risks while, conversely, consideration of malaria impacts in land management decisions has the potential to significantly accelerate progress towards eradication. Multisectoral cooperation and approaches to linking malaria control and environmental science, such as conducting locally relevant ecological monitoring, integrating landscape data into malaria surveillance systems and designing environmental management strategies to reduce malaria burdens, are essential to achieve malaria eradication.

The effectiveness of biosecurity interventions in reducing the transmission of bacteria from livestock to humans at the farm level: A systematic literature review.

Zoonotic bacterial infections are a health hazard for people who are in regular contact with livestock at the farm level. Improved biosecurity can limit zoonotic pathogen transmission within farms. The aim of this review was to summarize the effectiveness of farm-level biosecurity interventions in reducing bacterial transmission from animals to people who lived, worked in or visited farms. A systematic literature review was conducted using Embase, Ovid Medline and Agris databases, which were searched on 7th of July 2019, limited to English language papers but with no time exclusion criteria. A narrative synthesis was undertaken utilizing the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination approach, reported in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Risk of bias within and across the included studies was performed using established checklists. Out of 869 studies retrieved through database searches, 11 studies were selected. In addition, three studies were found through study reference lists. Fourteen studies were therefore included in this review. Biosecurity interventions were grouped into five categories: hand washing, sanitization and hygienic measures (six studies); personal protective equipment (five studies); vaccination (two studies); other interventions (e.g. air ventilation flap) (four studies); and routine farm activities (two studies). Across studies that investigated odds of human colonization or infection (three studies), odds were seen to both be increased and decreased through use of tested biosecurity measures. Large confidence intervals that often crossed the threshold of an odds ratio equal to 1 were found. Most of the studies' overall risk of bias was 'medium risk' (11 studies), with selection bias domains generally being scored 'medium risk.' Biosecurity interventions are potentially beneficial in reducing bacterial transmission from animals to humans. However, more high-quality evidence is needed to increase certainty in which interventions, in which contexts, are most effective from the human health perspective.

Quantitatively evaluating the cross-sectoral and One Health impact of interventions: A scoping review and case study of antimicrobial resistance.

BACKGROUND: Current frameworks evaluating One Health (OH) interventions focus on intervention-design and -implementation. Cross-sectoral impact evaluations are needed to more effectively tackle OH-issues, such as antimicrobial resistance (AMR). We aimed to describe quantitative evaluation methods for interventions related to OH and cross-sectoral issues, to propose an explicit approach for evaluating such interventions, and to apply this approach to AMR. METHODS: A scoping review was performed using WebofScience, EconLit, PubMed and gray literature. Quantitative evaluations of interventions that had an impact across two or more of the human, animal and environment sectors were included. Information on the interventions, methods and outcome measures found was narratively summarised. The information from this review informed the construction of a new approach to OH-related intervention evaluation, which then was applied to the field of AMR. RESULTS: The review included 90 studies: 73 individual evaluations (from 72 papers) and 18 reviews, with a range of statistical modelling (n = 13 studies), mathematical modelling (n = 53) and index-creation/preference-ranking (n = 14) methods discussed. The literature highlighted the need to (I) establish stakeholder objectives, (II) establish quantifiable outcomes that feed into those objectives, (III) establish agents and compartments that affect these outcomes and (IV) select appropriate methods (described in this review) accordingly. Based on this, an evaluation model for AMR was conceptualised; a decision-tree of intervention options, a compartmental-microeconomic model across sectors and a general-equilibrium (macroeconomic) model are linked. The outcomes of this multi-level model (including cost-utility and Gross Domestic Product impact) can then feed into multi-criteria-decision analyses that weigh respective impact estimates alongside other chosen outcome estimates (for example equity or uncertainty). CONCLUSION: In conclusion, stakeholder objectives are key in establishing which evaluation methods (and associated outcome measures) should be used for OH-related interventions. The stated multi-level approach also allows for sub-systems to be modelled in succession, where resources are constrained.

How useful are malaria risk maps at the country level? Perceptions of decision-makers in Kenya, Malawi and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

BACKGROUND: Declining malaria prevalence and pressure on external funding have increased the need for efficiency in malaria control in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Modelled Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) maps are increasingly becoming available and provide information on the epidemiological situation of countries. However, how these maps are understood or used for national malaria planning is rarely explored. In this study, the practices and perceptions of national decision-makers on the utility of malaria risk maps, showing prevalence of parasitaemia or incidence of illness, was investigated. METHODS: A document review of recent National Malaria Strategic Plans was combined with 64 in-depth interviews with stakeholders in Kenya, Malawi and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The document review focused on the type of epidemiological maps included and their use in prioritising and targeting interventions. Interviews (14 Kenya, 17 Malawi, 27 DRC, 6 global level) explored drivers of stakeholder perceptions of the utility, value and limitations of malaria risk maps. RESULTS: Three different types of maps were used to show malaria epidemiological strata: malaria prevalence using a PfPR modelled map (Kenya); malaria incidence using routine health system data (Malawi); and malaria prevalence using data from the most recent Demographic and Health Survey (DRC). In Kenya the map was used to target preventative interventions, including long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) and intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp), whilst in Malawi and DRC the maps were used to target in-door residual spraying (IRS) and LLINs distributions in schools. Maps were also used for operational planning, supply quantification, financial justification and advocacy. Findings from the interviews suggested that decision-makers lacked trust in the modelled PfPR maps when based on only a few empirical data points (Malawi and DRC). CONCLUSIONS: Maps were generally used to identify areas with high prevalence in order to implement specific interventions. Despite the availability of national level modelled PfPR maps in all three countries, they were only used in one country. Perceived utility of malaria risk maps was associated with the epidemiological structure of the country and use was driven by perceived need, understanding (quality and relevance), ownership and trust in the data used to develop the maps.

Minimal tillage and intermittent flooding farming systems show a potential reduction in the proliferation of Anopheles mosquito larvae in a rice field in Malanville, Northern Benin.

BACKGROUND: Irrigation systems have been identified as one of the factors promoting malaria disease around agricultural farms in sub-Saharan Africa. However, if improved water management strategy is adopted during rice cultivation, it may help to reduce malaria cases among human population living around rice fields. This study aimed to assess the impact of the different irrigation practices on malaria transmission, as well as to evaluate the water management system that will best mitigate malaria transmission in Malanville, Benin. METHODS: Knowledge, Attitude and Practice (KAP) study was conducted on 104 households staying on and around the rice fields in Malanville. The study focused on the frequency of mosquito bites and preventive measures against malaria as well as soil preparation and rice planting methods. Mosquito larvae density was assessed in different water management system: continuous flooding (CF) or intermittent flooding (IF), deep tillage (DT) or minimal tillage (MT) and normal levelling (NL) or abnormal levelling (AL) in an experimental hut set-up. Larvae were collected using dipping methods and their density was determined. RESULTS: Three tillage systems, which include the use of tiller, plow and hoe, were identified on the rice field. Continuous flooding was the only irrigation system used by farmers. Retrospective data from Malanville Health Centre revealed higher malaria cases during rice production season, which was also confirmed by field participants. The density of Anopheles larvae was reduced by 80.8%, 30.8% and 40.7% (P = 0.000) during transplanting, tillering and maturation periods, respectively with intermittent flooding compared to continuous flooding. In addition, a clear reduction of larva density was observed with both intermittent flooding systems applied to minimal tillage (MT + IF + NL) and intermittent flooding applied to deep tillage (DT + IF + AL), showing that intermittent flooding could reduce the abundance of malaria vector in rice fields. CONCLUSION: Recommending intermittent flooding technology for rice cultivation may not only be useful for water management but could also be an intentional strategy to control mosquitoes vector-borne diseases around rice farms.

Comparative functional survival and equivalent annual cost of 3 long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) products in Tanzania: A randomised trial with 3-year follow up.

BACKGROUND: Two billion long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have been procured for malaria control. A functional LLIN is one that is present, is in good physical condition, and remains insecticidal, thereby providing protection against vector-borne diseases through preventing bites and killing disease vectors. The World Health Organization (WHO) prequalifies LLINs that remain adequately insecticidal 3 years after deployment. Therefore, institutional buyers often assume that prequalified LLINs are functionally identical with a 3-year lifespan. We measured the lifespans of 3 LLIN products, and calculated their cost per year of functional life, to demonstrate the economic and public health importance of procuring the most cost-effective LLIN product based on its lifespan. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A randomised double-blinded trial of 3 pyrethroid LLIN products (10,571 nets in total) was conducted at 3 follow-up points: 10 months (August-October 2014), 22 months (August-October 2015), and 36 months (October-December 2016) among 3,393 households in Tanzania using WHO-recommended methods. Primary outcome was LLIN functional survival (LLIN present and in serviceable condition). Secondary outcomes were (1) bioefficacy and chemical content (residual insecticidal activity) and (2) protective efficacy for volunteers sleeping under the LLINs (bite reduction and mosquitoes killed). Median LLIN functional survival was significantly different between the 3 net products (p = 0.001): 2.0 years (95% CI 1.7-2.3) for Olyset, 2.5 years (95% CI 2.2-2.8) for PermaNet 2.0 (hazard ratio [HR] 0.73 [95% CI 0.64-0.85], p = 0.001), and 2.6 years (95% CI 2.3-2.8) for NetProtect (HR = 0.70 [95% CI 0.62-0.77], p < 0.001). Functional survival was affected by accumulation of holes, leading to users discarding nets. Protective efficacy also significantly differed between products as they aged. Equivalent annual cost varied between US$1.2 (95% CI $1.1-$1.4) and US$1.5 (95% CI $1.3-$1.7), assuming that each net was priced identically at US$3. The 2 longer-lived nets (PermaNet and NetProtect) were 20% cheaper than the shorter-lived product (Olyset). The trial was limited to only the most widely sold LLINs in Tanzania. Functional survival varies by country, so the single country setting is a limitation. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that LLIN functional survival is less than 3 years and differs substantially between products, and these differences strongly influence LLIN value for money. LLIN tendering processes should consider local expectations of cost per year of functional life and not unit price. As new LLIN products come on the market, especially those with new insecticides, it will be imperative to monitor their comparative durability to ensure that the most cost-effective products are procured for malaria control.