[Disease burden of acute viral hepatitis in Guangdong Province, 1990-2019].

Objective: To examine the burden and trends of acute viral hepatitis in Guangdong Province from 1990 to 2019, and provide reference evidences for hepatitis prevention and control in the province. Methods: Data on acute viral hepatitis (hepatitis A, B, C, and E) in Guangdong from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database. The incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) data were analyzed by age and gender, and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to describe the changing trends in disease burden. Results: From 1999 to 2019, the standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY of acute viral hepatitis in Guangdong were higher than the national averages. In 2019, 51.43% (2 245 087/4 365 221) of acute viral hepatitis cases in Guangdong Province were mainly attributed to hepatitis B, and 77.18% (106/138) of deaths were due to acute hepatitis B. In different age groups, except for acute hepatitis B, which was more common in adults, the incidence rates of other types of viral hepatitis such as hepatitis A, B, and E showed an overall decreasing trend with age. The mortality rates of different types of acute viral hepatitis, except for the <5 age group, increased with age. The overall incidence and mortality rates of acute viral hepatitis were higher in men than in women. Conclusions: The overall burden of acute viral hepatitis in Guangdong declined in 2019, but remained higher than the national level. Further efforts are needed to strengthen hepatitis prevention and screening in different population in Guangdong Province, especially in children and the elderly.

A versatile control program for positioning and shooting targets in laser-plasma experiments.

We introduce a LabVIEW-based control program that significantly improves the efficiency and flexibility in positioning and shooting solid targets in laser-plasma experiments. The hardware driven by this program incorporates a target positioning subsystem and an imaging subsystem, which enables us to install up to 400 targets for one experimental campaign and precisely adjust them in six freedom degrees. The overall architecture and the working modes of the control program are demonstrated in detail. In addition, we characterized the distributions of target positions of every target holder and simultaneously saved the target images, resulting in a large dataset that can be used to train machine learning models and develop image recognition algorithms. This versatile control system has become an indispensable platform when preparing and conducting laser-plasma experiments.

Lonicera flos and Cnicus japonicus extracts improved egg quality partly by modulating antioxidant status, inflammatory-related cytokines and shell matrix protein expression of oviduct in laying hens.

This study was conducted to investigate the effects of Lonicera flos and Cnicus japonicus extracts (LCE) on the laying performance, egg quality, morphology, antioxidant status, inflammatory-related cytokines, and shell matrix protein expression of oviduct in laying hens. A total of 1,728 Roman Pink laying hens aged 73-wk-old were randomly assigned into 4 groups (18 replicates/group, 24 layers/replicate) fed basal diets supplemented with 0, 300, 500, and 1,000 mg of LCE per kg of diet, respectively. The trial lasted for 11 wk, including 2-wk adjustment period and 9-wk testing period. The results indicated that laying hens fed diets supplemented with LCE linearly increased egg weight, yolk color and shell thickness at wk 78 and albumen height, Haugh unit and shell thickness at wk 83 (P < 0.05). At wk 78, LCE groups linearly affected the hydrogen peroxide content in magnum (P < 0.05) and 300 mg/kg LCE groups had the highest catalase activity in isthmus (P < 0.05). At wk 83, LCE groups linearly reduced (P < 0.05) hydrogen peroxide content in the magnum and isthmus and malondialdehyde content in the uterus whereas increased catalase activity in isthmus (P < 0.05). Furthermore, LCE levels quadratically affected glutathione peroxidase activity in isthmus at wk 83 (P < 0.05). At wk 78, the mRNA expressions of inducible nitric oxide synthase and interferon-γ in isthmus and ovalbumin and ovocleidin-116 in uterus had linear effects in response to LCE levels (P < 0.05) and 1,000 mg/kg LCE group had the lowest mRNA expression of interleukin-6 in magnum (P < 0.05). At wk 83, LCE supplementation linearly decreased the mRNA expression of interleukin-1ß, interferon-γ and tumor necrosis factor-α in magnum and tumor necrosis factor-α and inducible nitric oxide synthase in uterus (P < 0.05). It is concluded that LCE improved egg quality partly by modulating antioxidant status, inflammatory-related cytokines and shell matrix protein expression of oviduct in laying hens.

Changes in integrins αv and α5 with Nogo-A in the rat retina after optic nerve injury.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to investigate whether integrin levels are associated with axon regeneration after central nervous system (CNS) injury. MATERIALS AND METHODS: By using immunohistochemistry, we performed a detailed investigation of the changes in and colocalization of integrins αv and α5, with Nogo-A in the retina after optic nerve injury. RESULTS: We confirmed that integrins αv and α5 were expressed in the rat retina and colocalized with Nogo-A. After optic nerve transection, we found that integrin α5 levels increased over 7 days, but integrin αv levels remained unchanged, while Nogo-A levels increased. CONCLUSIONS: It seems that the inhibition of axonal regeneration by the Amino-Nogo-integrin signaling pathway may not occur via changes in integrin levels.

Research Note: Disturbance of intracellular calcium signal in salpingitis simulation of laying hens.

This study investigated whether there is disturbance of calcium signal in the simulated salpingitis of laying hens. A total of 90 Roman Pink layers (81 wk; 1.916 ± 0.17 kg) were divided into 3 groups (Control treated with PBS, 1.85 mg lipopolysaccharide (LPS)/layer as LPS group, 1.85 mg LPS/layer as LPS+organic chemical reagent (OCR) group) with 6 replicates of 5 layers. Compared with the Control, the mRNA expression of calcium/calmodulin dependent protein kinase IV (CaMK IV), sarcoplasmic/endoplasmic reticulum calcium ATPase (SERCA), and plasma membrane calcium-transporting ATPase (PMCA) were not only decreased (P < 0.05) in magnum of laying hens from LPS and LPS+OCR groups, but also in isthmus and uterus of hens from LPS+OCR group. Moreover, the mRNA expression of calcium sensing receptor (CaSR) and Orai1 in uterus from LPS+OCR group were higher (P < 0.05) than that from Control. The relative fluorescence intensity of Ca2+ in uterus from LPS and LPS+OCR groups were significantly higher than that from Control (P < 0.05). In conclusion, it existed that the linkage of simulated salpingitis treated with LPS+OCR and altered intracellular calcium signals in layers, which provided a new insight for alleviating salpingitis and uterine dysfunction of laying hens.

Effects of salpingitis simulation on the morphology and expression of inflammatory-related genes of oviduct in laying hens.

This study was conducted to simulate salpingitis of laying hens by observing the morphology and expression of inflammatory genes in the oviduct. A total of one hundred twenty 81-wk-old Roman Pink laying hens in good physical condition without the oviduct disease with an average egg production rate of 76% were fed a basal diet for 2 wks and then randomly allocated into 4 groups (6 replicates/group, 5 birds/replicate). The experimental treatments were as follows: 1) Control group (treated with PBS); 2) Organic chemical reagent (OCR) group; 3) Lipopolysaccharide (LPS) group; 4) LPS + OCR group. First, the chickens were kept upside down to make ectropion and exposure of the apertura uterinae; then prepared reagents were poured into the uterine part of the fallopian tube by using the chicken vas deferens (1 mL/layer); finally, the chickens were kept in the inverted position for 5 to 10 min. The fallopian tube samples (the magnum, isthmus, and uterus) were collected after 48 h of treatment. Compared with the control, treatment with LPS+OCR decreased (P < 0.05) the secondary villus length and primary villus area in magnum and villus length in isthmus (P < 0.05). An increase (P < 0.05) of the intervillous space of uterus was observed in LPS + OCR group compared with the control. The expressions of interleukin-6 mRNA of magnum and interferon-γ (IFN-γ) of isthmus in the LPS and LPS+OCR treatments were higher (P < 0.05) than that in control. Compared with the control, treatment with LPS+OCR increased (P < 0.05) the expressions of IFN-γ mRNA of magnum and IFN-γ, tumor necrosis factor-α and inducible nitric oxide synthase mRNA of uterus in laying hens. In conclusion, the results of morphological damage of fallopian tube tissue and increased expression of inflammatory factors in LPS + OCR treatment group suggested that LPS+OCR treatment can provide data basis to establish salpingitis model in laying hens for studying the pathogenesis of it.

[Implications for risk management of foodborne pathogens in China from the outbreak of monophasic salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium contaminated chocolate products].

Outbreaks caused by highly industrialized food companies are characterized by cross-border, trans-regional, rapid and unpredictable, related to serious disease and economic burden. A cluster of cases with monophasic salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium ST34 infection suspected to be associated with consumption of contaminated chocolate products have been reported in several Europe countries since December 2021. After retrospective investigations, the buttermilk circuit in the Belgian factory was suspected to be the point of origin of the contamination. This outbreak could provide a reference for the risk management of foodborne pathogens contamination in China. The objective of this paper was to summarize the process and characteristics of the outbreak of monophasic S. Typhimurium caused by contaminated chocolate products, analyze the characteristics of ST34 monophasic S. Typhimurium and the microbial management measures in the process of chocolate products, and systematically discuss the suggestions for the risk management of foodborne pathogens contamination and countermeasures for the rapid development of industrialization of food enterprises in China, in order to provide scientific and technological support for the prevention and control, prediction and early warning of sudden cases in China.

Sandwich excision in patients with placenta percreta involving maternal bladder.

OBJECTIVE: Our aim is to describe and assess a Sandwich Excision (placenta-uterine-bladder excision together) surgical technique for women with clinically confirmed placenta percreta involving the maternal bladder. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed on all patients with clinically confirmed placenta percreta involving the maternal bladder who underwent Sandwich Excision at our large academic institution from January 1, 2014, to June 30, 2019. RESULTS: Twenty-three patients were included. Four patients underwent hysterectomy, and one patient underwent subhysterectomy. The mean duration of surgery was 228.04 ± 85.59 minutes (range, 90.00-503.00 minutes). The mean estimated blood loss was 5,269.57 ± 2,745.81 mL (range, 1,000.00-12,500.00 mL). No thromboembolic events occurred, and there were no maternal or neonatal deaths among the subjects in this study. CONCLUSIONS: Sandwich excision is associated with a low rate of hysterectomy in women with placenta percreta involving the maternal bladder. The procedure is a relatively safe technique and can be performed safely by experienced obstetricians who are familiar with the uterus-bladder space. Meanwhile, the success rates and complications of the Sandwich Excision in these patients also need to be evaluated in prospective studies.

Weight gain during pregnancy and placenta morphology: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess the association between maternal weight gain and placenta morphology in the complete placenta previa pregnancies. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This was a prospective clinical cohort study. Pregnancy weight gain was defined as the difference between delivery and at first trimester. Morphological parameters, including placenta length, breadth, thickness, length-breadth, surface area, weight, and fetoplacental weight ratio, were direct measured delivery. RESULTS: Eighty-five women were included in this study. Maternal weight gain was 11.12 ± 3.95 kg. Placenta length, breadth, thickness, length-breadth, surface area, weight and fetoplacental weight ratio were 19.42 ± 1.97 cm, 18.29 ± 1.80 cm, 2.18 ± 0.38 cm, 1.13 ± 0.80 cm, 281.60 ± 57.23 cm2, 569.05 ± 118.77 g, and 4.88 ± 0.88, respectively. Correlation analysis showed that there was a positive correlation between maternal weight gain and placenta length (r = 0.261, p = 0.016), placenta breadth (r = 0.239, p = 0.028), and placenta surface area (r = 0.254, p = 0.019). In the linear regression model, maternal weight gain was significantly associated with placenta length [ß (95% CI): 0.130 (0.025-0.236)], breadth [ß (95% CI): 0.109 (0.012-0.205)], and surface area [ß (95%CI): 3.677 (0.615-6.739)]. The results were still stable after adjusting for pre-pregnancy weight. CONCLUSIONS: Maternal weight gain in pregnancy was associated with placental length, placental breadth, and placental surface area in a complete placenta previa pregnancies. Considering the single center data, further studies are needed to recognize the significance of the association analyzed in our study.

[The effect of prealbumin on the long-term prognosis of hilar cholangiocarcinoma following radical surgery].

Objective: To investigate the association between prealbumin and the long-term prognosis of patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma(HCCA) following radical surgery. Methods: The clinical data of 262 HCCA patients who underwent radical surgery admitted from January 2010 to January 2017 at the First Affiliated Hospital of Army Medical University were collected,retrospectively. There were 158 males and 104 females; aged (57.6±9.9)years old(range:32 to 78 years). According to the preoperative serum prealbumin level(170 mg/L),the patients were divided into low prealbumin group(n=143) and normal prealbumin group(n=119). Follow-up until September 2020,the main research indicator was overall survival(OS), and the secondary research indicator was recurrence-free survival(RFS). The measurement data conforming to the normal distribution adopted the t test,the measurement data not conforming to the normal distribution adopted the Mann-Whitney U test,and the count data adopted the χ2 test. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the cumulative survival rate. The Log-rank test was used for univariate analysis of the cumulative survival rate. Variables with P<0.10 in univariate analysis were included in the Cox proportional hazards model for multivariate analysis. Results: The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rate of the 262 patients was 73.4%, 32.1%, and 24.0%, respectively, and the 1-, 3-, and 5-year RFS rate was 54.6%, 25.2%, and 16.2%, respectively. Median OS and RFS were 21 months and 12 months for patients with low prealbumin and 25 months and 19 months for patients with normal prealbumin. The OS rate and RFS rate of patients in the low prealbumin group were lower than those in the normal prealbumin group, and the difference was statistically significant (both P<0.05). The results of univariate analysis indicated that low prealbumin, CA19-9>150 U/L, tumor infiltration length>3 cm, preoperative jaundice, macrovascular invasion, microvascular invasion, lymph node metastasis, and poor differentiation maybe the risk factors of OS,and low prealbumin,tumor invasion length>3 cm,macrovascular invasion, microvascular invasion,lymph node metastasis,and poor differentiation maybe the risk factors of RFS for postoperative for radical resection in patients with HCCA (all P<0.10). Multivariate results suggested that low prealbumin,tumor invasion length>3 cm,microvascular invasion,lymph node metastasis,and poor differentiation were independent risk factors affecting OS and RFS in patients with HCCA after radical operation (all P<0.05). Conclusion: Preoperative prealbumin level can predict the long-term prognosis of patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma following radical surgery.

Efficacy of Kanglaite against radiotherapy-induced mucositis in head and neck cancer, a phase II trial.

PURPOSE: To explore the potential protective effect of Kanglaite injection against radiotherapy-induced mucositis in patients with head and neck cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This was an open-label, single-arm, and phase II trial. The primary endpoint was the incidence of grade 3-4 radiation-induced mucositis. The secondary endpoints were hematological toxicity, non-hematological toxicity, nutritional status, and quality of life. All patients received 20g Kanglaite daily concurrently with radiotherapy. RESULTS: The data of 46 patients were available for analysis. The incidence rates of grade 3 mucositis, pain, dysphagia, and neutropenia were 10.9%, 2.2%, 10.9%, and 6.5%, respectively, while the incidence of grade 4 acute toxicities was zero. The rate of opioid use was 2.2%. Radiotherapy dose reduction was 2.2% and no irradiation field was modified. The nutritional supports were oro-enteral nutritional supplements (13.0%), TPN (10.9%), and feeding tubes (0%) during radiotherapy. After radiotherapy, 52.2% of patients lost weight, and the weight loss was <10%. The mean pain score in the QLQ-H&N35 and QLQ-C30 was <50. Patients had nearly normal physical, emotional, and cognitive functions. CONCLUSIONS: A low incidence of grade 3-4 radiation-induced mucositis and no severe acute toxic events, with favorable nutritional status and quality of life, were observed in cancer patients after Kanglaite injection. Our findings highlight the need for a prospective, multicenter, and randomized study to investigate the effect of Kanglaite injection on the reduction of radiation-induced mucositis in patients with head and neck cancer.

NAT2 knockdown inhibits the development of colorectal cancer and its clinical significance.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to explore the correlation between N-acetyltransferase 2 (NAT2) expression in colorectal cancer (CRC) tissues and the progression and prognosis of CRC. Through in vitro and in vivo experiments, the biological functions of NAT2 in the occurrence and development of CRC were explored. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Immunohistochemical (IHC) staining, reverse transcription quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) and Western blot were used to detect the difference of NAT2 expression in CRC tissues and normal tissues. The role of NAT2 in the cell proliferation, apoptosis, migration, invasion, and tumorigenesis and development of CRC was analyzed by cell counting kit-8 (CCK-8), colony formation, flow cytometry, transwell cell invasion, wound-healing assays and construction of nude mouse xenograft model. The correlation between the expression level of NAT2, and the overall survival and clinicopathological characteristics of CRC patients were statistically analyzed to preliminarily determine the clinical significance of NAT2 in the diagnosis and prognosis of CRC. RESULTS: The expression level of NAT2 was notably upregulated in CRC. NAT2 knockdown inhibited the proliferation, migration, invasion and in vivo tumor formation of CRC cells, and promoted cell apoptosis. High NAT2 expression was associated with TNM stage, differentiation degree, tumor size, distant metastasis, lymph node metastasis and poor prognosis in CRC patients. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that the expression level of NAT2 in CRC tissues was increased and closely related to the metastasis and prognosis of CRC. In addition, NAT2 can be used as a new prognostic biomarker and therapeutic target for CRC.

[Protective effects of berberine against exhaustion exercise induced myocardial injury in rats].

Objective: To investigate the effect and possible mechanism of berberine (Ber) on myocardial injury induced by exhaustion exercise (Ee). Methods: Forty healthy male SPF Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly divided into 5 groups using the random unit group design method: control group, Ee group and Ee plus Ber group (low: 50 mg·kg(-1)·d(-1), medium: 100 mg·kg(-1)·d(-1) and high dose: 150 mg·kg(-1)·d(-1), n=8 each). Ber (1.5 ml) or equal volume saline was given per gavage for 14 days. Rats assigned to Ee groups underwent Ee swimming once daily and rats in control group remain sedentary. After 14 days, echocardiographic measurements were performed and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and fractional shortening (LVFS), left ventricular diastolic diameter (LVIDd) and left ventricular systolic diameter (LVIDs) were obtained. The morphological structure of heart was detected by HE and Masson staining. Serum superoxide dismutase (SOD) and malondialdehyde (MDA) were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Cardiomyocytes apoptosis was detected by TUNEL method. The protein expression of myocardial hypertrophy marker protein B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and apoptotic marker protein (Bcl-2, Bax) in rat myocardial tissue was detected by Western blot. Results: (1) Both LVFS and LVEF were significantly lower, and LVIDs and LVIDd were significantly larger in Ee group than those in control group (all P<0.01). The LVFS and LVEF in medium dose of Ber and high-dose Ber groups were significantly higher, and the LVIDs and LVIDd were significantly smaller than those in Ee group (all P<0.01). (2) The results of HE staining showed that the myocardial cells in control group were closely arranged, regular, normal in morphology, clear in structure, and uniform in staining. The myocardial cells of rats in Ee group were disarranged, cell staining was uneven, and vacuoles appeared in the cytoplasm. The disorder of myocardial cell arrangement and unequal staining in the medium dose of Ber were attenuated than in Ee group. The Masson staining results showed that the myocardial cells in control group were closely arranged, regular, normal in shape, clear in structure, and rarely blue-stained (fibrosis). Myocardial cells in rats in Ee group showed obvious fibrosis. The myocardial cell fibrosis in rats with medium dose of Ber was significantly reduced than exercise group. (3) MDA content in myocardial tissue of rats in Ee group was significantly higher than that of control group, and MDA content in myocardial tissue of rats in medium dose of Ber group was significantly lower than in Ee group (P<0.01). The SOD activity of myocardial tissue in rats was significantly lower than that of control group, while that of rats with medium dose of Ber was significantly higher than that of rats in Ee group (P<0.01). (4) TUNEL staining results showed that only a small amount of apoptosis myocardial cells were seen in control group, and a large number of apoptosis myocardial cells were seen in rats in Ee group. However, the number of apoptotic cardiomyocytes in medium dose of Ber was significantly lower than that in Ee group. The AI of rat cardiomyocytes was significantly higher than that of control group (P<0.01), and the AI of rat cardiomyocytes in median dose of Ber group was significantly lower than in Ee group (P<0.01). (5) BNP and Bax protein expression in the myocardial tissues of rats in Ee group were significantly higher than in control group (P<0.01). BNP and Bax protein expression in the myocardial tissues in median dose of Ber group were significantly lower than that of Ee group (P<0.01). The myocardial protein expression level of Bax was significantly higher, and the myocardial protein level of Bcl-2 was significantly lower in Ee group than in control group (both P<0.01), treatment with median dose of Ber could partly reverse above changes (both P<0.01). Conclusion: Ber can attenuate exhaustion exercise induced myocardial injury and remodeling in rats, and the beneficial effects of Ber might possibly be mediated by reducing free radical release and cardiomyocytes apoptosis.

Preoperative mean platelet volume and platelet distribution associated with thyroid cancer.

Thyroid cancer is the most frequent cancer of the endocrine glands and the fifth most frequent cancer in women. Activated platelets play a crucial role in thrombosis, inflammation, and cancer. Mean platelet volume (MPV) and platelet distribution width (PDW) are early index of platelet activation. The purpose of this study is to investigate platelet indices levels in thyroid cancer. The study enrolled 280 patients with thyroid cancer and 280 control subjects. Patients' characteristics and hematologic tests data were collected at the time of diagnosis. Correlations between platelet indices and clinical characteristics were analyzed. The odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for thyroid cancer were calculated using multivariate logistic regression analyses across MPV and PDW quartiles. The patients with thyroid cancer had lower MPV and higher PDW compared with control subjects. MPV was correlated with tumor-nodus-metastases (TNM) stage and lymph node metastasis. Moreover, after adjusting for other risk factors, the prevalence risk of thyroid cancer for the lowest quartile of MPV was 7.242 (4.069-12.887) (P < 0.001) and for the highest quartile of PDW was 6.065 (3.321-11.076) (P < 0.001), respectively. The study showed that the patients with thyroid cancer have lower MPV and higher PDW compared to control subjects. Moreover, MPV and PDW were independently associated with the presence of thyroid cancer. Further studies are needed to evaluate the utility of MPV and PDW as novel diagnostic screening tools for thyroid cancer.

[Liquid milk exposure and risk assessment of thiocyanate in Chinese populations].

Objective: To analyze liquid milk exposure of thiocyanate among Chinese population and preliminarily assess its health risk. Methods: A total of 2 059 raw milk samples were collected during 2013 and 2014 from 12 Chinese provinces, New Zealand and Netherlands. Farms were chosed according to the main sources of dairy companies, the distribution of farms and the yield of milk. Content of thiocyanate were detected by ion chromatography. Liquid milk consumption data were taken from Chinese beverage and alcoholic beverage consumption survey in 18 cities or counties in 9 provinces, including 16 775 subjects older than 3. A simple distribution model was used to estimate the exposure of thiocyanate from liquid milk. The tolerable daily intake (TDI) of thiocyanate was made 0.08 mg·kg(-1)·d(-1). Then the exposures of different age groups were compared with TDI. Results: Finally, 1 331 samples out of 2 059 were detected to contain thiocyanate. The detection rate was 65%. The average concentration of thiocyanate was 2.11 mg/kg, with a range of 0.10-16.20 mg/kg. The general population's consumption of thiocyanate by drinking liquid milk was 0.001 mg · kg(-1) · d(-1), which was lower than TDI. The P(95) of general population and consumers were 0.009 mg · kg(-1) · d(-1) and 0.020 mg·kg( -1)·d(-1) respectively, which were also lower than TDI. Mean exposures of population aged 3-6, 7-12, 13-17, 18-59 as well as elderly aged 60 and above were 0.007, 0.003, 0.002, 0.001 and 0.001 mg · kg(-1)·d(-1) respectively, which were all lower than TDI. Conclusion: The results suggested that the health risk of thiocyanate exposure by drinking liquid milk among Chinese population was at a low level. However, milk products for children deserve more concern.

Scenario analysis of carbon emissions' anti-driving effect on Qingdao's energy structure adjustment with an optimization model, Part II: Energy system planning and management.

In this study, an inexact multistage stochastic mixed-integer programming (IMSMP) method was developed for supporting regional-scale energy system planning (EPS) associated with multiple uncertainties presented as discrete intervals, probability distributions and their combinations. An IMSMP-based energy system planning (IMSMP-ESP) model was formulated for Qingdao to demonstrate its applicability. Solutions which can provide optimal patterns of energy resources generation, conversion, transmission, allocation and facility capacity expansion schemes have been obtained. The results can help local decision makers generate cost-effective energy system management schemes and gain a comprehensive tradeoff between economic objectives and environmental requirements. Moreover, taking the CO2 emissions scenarios mentioned in Part I into consideration, the anti-driving effect of carbon emissions on energy structure adjustment was studied based on the developed model and scenario analysis. Several suggestions can be concluded from the results: (a) to ensure the smooth realization of low-carbon and sustainable development, appropriate price control and fiscal subsidy on high-cost energy resources should be considered by the decision-makers; (b) compared with coal, natural gas utilization should be strongly encouraged in order to insure that Qingdao could reach the carbon discharges peak value in 2020; (c) to guarantee Qingdao's power supply security in the future, the construction of new power plants should be emphasised instead of enhancing the transmission capacity of grid infrastructure.