Cost-effectiveness and public health impact of typhoid conjugate vaccine introduction strategies in Bangladesh.

PURPOSE: Typhoid fever causes substantial morbidity and mortality in Bangladesh. The government of Bangladesh plans to introduce typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCV) in its expanded program on immunization (EPI) schedule. However, the optimal introduction strategy in addition to the costs and benefits of such a program are unclear. METHODS: We extended an existing mathematical model of typhoid transmission to integrate cost data, clinical incidence data, and recently conducted serosurveys in urban, semi-urban, and rural areas. In our primary analysis, we evaluated the status quo (i.e., no vaccination) and eight vaccine introduction strategies including routine and 1-time campaign strategies, which differed by age groups targeted and geographic focus. Model outcomes included clinical incidence, seroincidence, deaths, costs, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for each strategy. We adopted a societal perspective, 10-year model time horizon, and 3 % annual discount rate. We performed probabilistic, one-way, and scenario sensitivity analyses including adopting a healthcare perspective and alternate model time horizons. RESULTS: We projected that all TCV strategies would be cost saving compared to the status quo. The preferred strategy was a nationwide introduction of TCV at 9-12 months of age with a single catch-up campaign for children ages 1-15, which was cost saving compared to all other strategies and the status quo. In the 10 years following implementation, we projected this strategy would avert 3.77 million cases (95 % CrI: 2.60 - 5.18), 11.31 thousand deaths (95 % CrI: 3.77 - 23.60), and save $172.35 million (95 % CrI: -14.29 - 460.59) compared to the status quo. Our findings were broadly robust to changes in parameter values and willingness-to-pay thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: We projected that nationwide TCV introduction with a catch-up campaign would substantially reduce typhoid incidence and very likely be cost saving in Bangladesh.

Comparing frequency of booster vaccination to prevent severe COVID-19 by risk group in the United States.

There is a public health need to understand how different frequencies of COVID-19 booster vaccines may mitigate the risk of severe COVID-19, while accounting for waning of protection and differential risk by age and immune status. By analyzing United States COVID-19 surveillance and seroprevalence data in a microsimulation model, here we show that more frequent COVID-19 booster vaccination (every 6-12 months) in older age groups and the immunocompromised population would effectively reduce the burden of severe COVID-19, while frequent boosters in the younger population may only provide modest benefit against severe disease. In persons 75+ years, the model estimated that annual boosters would reduce absolute annual risk of severe COVID-19 by 199 (uncertainty interval: 183-232) cases per 100,000 persons, compared to a one-time booster vaccination. In contrast, for persons 18-49 years, the model estimated that annual boosters would reduce this risk by 14 (10-19) cases per 100,000 persons. Those with prior infection had lower benefit of more frequent boosting, and immunocompromised persons had larger benefit. Scenarios with emerging variants with immune evasion increased the benefit of more frequent variant-targeted boosters. This study underscores the benefit of considering key risk factors to inform frequency of COVID-19 booster vaccines in public health guidance and ensuring at least annual boosters in high-risk populations.

Shrinking in the dark: Parallel endosymbiont genome erosions are associated with repeated host transitions to an underground life.

Microbial symbioses have had profound impacts on the evolution of animals. Conversely, changes in host biology may impact the evolutionary trajectory of symbionts themselves. Blattabacterium cuenoti is present in almost all cockroach species and enables hosts to subsist on a nutrient-poor diet. To investigate if host biology has impacted Blattabacterium at the genomic level, we sequenced and analyzed 25 genomes from Australian soil-burrowing cockroaches (Blaberidae: Panesthiinae), which have undergone at least seven separate subterranean, subsocial transitions from above-ground, wood-feeding ancestors. We find at least three independent instances of genome erosion have occurred in Blattabacterium strains exclusive to Australian soil-burrowing cockroaches. These shrinkages have involved the repeated inactivation of genes involved in amino acid biosynthesis and nitrogen recycling, the core role of Blattabacterium in the host-symbiont relationship. The most drastic of these erosions have occurred in hosts thought to have transitioned underground the earliest relative to other lineages, further suggestive of a link between gene loss in Blattabacterium and the burrowing behavior of hosts. As Blattabacterium is unable to fulfill its core function in certain host lineages, these findings suggest soil-burrowing cockroaches must acquire these nutrients from novel sources. Our study represents one of the first cases, to our knowledge, of parallel host adaptations leading to concomitant parallelism in their mutualistic symbionts, further underscoring the intimate relationship between these two partners.

The spotted parrotfish genome provides insights into the evolution of a coral reef dietary specialist (Teleostei: Labridae: Scarini: Cetoscarus ocellatus).

With over 600 valid species, the wrasses (family Labridae) are among the largest and most successful families of the marine teleosts. They feature prominently on coral reefs where they are known not only for their impressive diversity in colouration and form but also for their functional specialisation and ability to occupy a wide variety of trophic guilds. Among the wrasses, the parrotfishes (tribe Scarini) display some of the most dramatic examples of trophic specialisation. Using abrasion-resistant biomineralized teeth, parrotfishes are able to mechanically extract protein-rich micro-photoautotrophs growing in and among reef carbonate material, a dietary niche that is inaccessible to most other teleost fishes. This ability to exploit an otherwise untapped trophic resource is thought to have played a role in the diversification and evolutionary success of the parrotfishes. In order to better understand the key evolutionary innovations leading to the success of these dietary specialists, we sequenced and analysed the genome of a representative species, the spotted parrotfish (Cetoscarus ocellatus). We find significant expansion, selection and duplications within several detoxification gene families and a novel poly-glutamine expansion in the enamel protein ameloblastin, and we consider their evolutionary implications. Our genome provides a useful resource for comparative genomic studies investigating the evolutionary history of this highly specialised teleostean radiation.

Dating in the Dark: Elevated Substitution Rates in Cave Cockroaches (Blattodea: Nocticolidae) Have Negative Impacts on Molecular Date Estimates.

Rates of nucleotide substitution vary substantially across the Tree of Life, with potentially confounding effects on phylogenetic and evolutionary analyses. A large acceleration in mitochondrial substitution rate occurs in the cockroach family Nocticolidae, which predominantly inhabit subterranean environments. To evaluate the impacts of this among-lineage rate heterogeneity on estimates of phylogenetic relationships and evolutionary timescales, we analysed nuclear ultraconserved elements (UCEs) and mitochondrial genomes from nocticolids and other cockroaches. Substitution rates were substantially elevated in nocticolid lineages compared with other cockroaches, especially in mitochondrial protein-coding genes. This disparity in evolutionary rates is likely to have led to different evolutionary relationships being supported by phylogenetic analyses of mitochondrial genomes and UCE loci. Furthermore, Bayesian dating analyses using relaxed-clock models inferred much deeper divergence times compared with a flexible local clock. Our phylogenetic analysis of UCEs, which is the first genome-scale study to include all thirteen major cockroach families, unites Corydiidae and Nocticolidae and places Anaplectidae as the sister lineage to the rest of Blattoidea. We uncover an extraordinary level of genetic divergence in Nocticolidae, including two highly distinct clades that separated ~115 million years ago despite both containing representatives of the genus Nocticola. The results of our study highlight the potential impacts of high among-lineage rate variation on estimates of phylogenetic relationships and evolutionary timescales.

Development of prediction models to identify hotspots of schistosomiasis in endemic regions to guide mass drug administration.

Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease affecting over 150 million people. Hotspots of Schistosoma transmission-communities where infection prevalence does not decline adequately with mass drug administration-present a key challenge in eliminating schistosomiasis. Current approaches to identify hotspots require evaluation 2-5 y after a baseline survey and subsequent mass drug administration. Here, we develop statistical models to predict hotspots at baseline prior to treatment comparing three common hotspot definitions, using epidemiologic, survey-based, and remote sensing data. In a reanalysis of randomized trials in 589 communities in five endemic countries, a regression model predicts whether Schistosoma mansoni infection prevalence will exceed the WHO threshold of 10% in year 5 ("prevalence hotspot") with 86% sensitivity, 74% specificity, and 93% negative predictive value (NPV; assuming 30% hotspot prevalence), and a regression model for Schistosoma haematobium achieves 90% sensitivity, 90% specificity, and 96% NPV. A random forest model predicts whether S. mansoni moderate and heavy infection prevalence will exceed a public health goal of 1% in year 5 ("intensity hotspot") with 92% sensitivity, 79% specificity, and 96% NPV, and a boosted trees model for S. haematobium achieves 77% sensitivity, 95% specificity, and 91% NPV. Baseline prevalence is a top predictor in all models. Prediction is less accurate in countries not represented in training data and for a third hotspot definition based on relative prevalence reduction over time ("persistent hotspot"). These models may be a tool to prioritize high-risk communities for more frequent surveillance or intervention against schistosomiasis, but prediction of hotspots remains a challenge.

Determining Herd Immunity Thresholds for Hepatitis A Virus Transmission to Inform Vaccination Strategies Among People Who Inject Drugs in 16†US States.

BACKGROUND: Widespread outbreaks of person-to-person transmitted hepatitis A virus (HAV), particularly among people who inject drugs (PWID), continue across the United States and globally. However, the herd immunity threshold and vaccination coverage required to prevent outbreaks are unknown. We used surveillance data and dynamic modeling to estimate herd immunity thresholds among PWID in 16 US states. METHODS: We used a previously published dynamic model of HAV transmission calibrated to surveillance data from outbreaks involving PWID in 16 states. Using state-level calibrated models, we estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) and herd immunity threshold for PWID in each state. We performed a meta-analysis of herd immunity thresholds to determine the critical vaccination coverage required to prevent most HAV outbreaks among PWID. RESULTS: Estimates of R0 for HAV infection ranged from 2.2 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9-2.5) for North Carolina to 5.0 (95% CI, 4.5-5.6) for West Virginia. Corresponding herd immunity thresholds ranged from 55% (95% CI, 47%-61%) for North Carolina to 80% (95% CI, 78%-82%) for West Virginia. Based on the meta-analysis, we estimated a pooled herd immunity threshold of 64% (95% CI, 61%-68%; 90% prediction interval, 52%-76%) among PWID. Using the prediction interval upper bound (76%) and assuming 95% vaccine efficacy, we estimated that vaccination coverage of 80% could prevent most HAV outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Hepatitis A vaccination programs in the United States may need to achieve vaccination coverage of at least 80% among PWID in order to prevent most HAV outbreaks among this population.

The genome and sex-dependent responses to temperature in the common yellow butterfly, Eurema hecabe.

BACKGROUND: Lepidoptera (butterflies and moths) is one of the most geographically widespread insect orders in the world, and its species play important and diverse ecological and applied roles. Climate change is one of the biggest challenges to biodiversity this century, and lepidopterans are vulnerable to climate change. Temperature-dependent gene expression differences are of relevance under the ongoing climate crisis. However, little is known about how climate affects gene expression in lepidopterans and the ecological consequences of this, particularly with respect to genes with biased expression in one of the sexes. The common yellow butterfly, Eurema hecabe (Family Pieridae), is one of the most geographically widespread lepidopterans that can be found in Asia, Africa, and Australia. Nevertheless, what temperature-dependent effects there may be and whether the effects differ between the sexes remain largely unexplored. RESULTS: Here, we generated high-quality genomic resources for E. hecabe along with transcriptomes from eight developmental stages. Male and female butterflies were subjected to varying temperatures to assess sex-specific gene expression responses through mRNA and microRNA transcriptomics. We find that there are more temperature-dependent sex-biased genes in females than males, including genes that are involved in a range of biologically important functions, highlighting potential ecological impacts of increased temperatures. Further, by considering available butterfly data on sex-biased gene expression in a comparative genomic framework, we find that the pattern of sex-biased gene expression identified in E. hecabe is highly species-specific, rather than conserved across butterfly species, suggesting that sex-biased gene expression responses to climate change are complex in butterflies. CONCLUSIONS: Our study lays the foundation for further understanding of differential responses to environmental stress in a widespread lepidopteran model and demonstrates the potential complexity of sex-specific responses of lepidopterans to climate change.

Predicting the Public Health Impact of Bivalent Vaccines and Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir Against Coronavirus Disease 2019.

Background: Uptake of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) bivalent vaccines and the oral medication nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (Paxlovid) has remained low across the United States. Assessing the public health impact of increasing uptake of these interventions in key risk groups can guide further public health resources and policy and determine what proportion of severe COVID-19 is avertable with these interventions. Methods: This modeling study used person-level data from the California Department of Public Health on COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and vaccine administration from 23 July 2022 to 23 January 2023. We used a quasi-Poisson regression model calibrated to recent historical data to predict future COVID-19 outcomes and modeled the impact of increasing uptake (up to 70% coverage) of bivalent COVID-19 vaccines and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir during acute illness in different risk groups. Risk groups were defined by age (≥50, ≥65, ≥75 years) and vaccination status (everyone, primary series only, previously vaccinated). We predicted the number of averted COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths and number needed to treat (NNT). Results: The model predicted that increased uptake of bivalent COVID-19 boosters and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (up to 70% coverage) in all eligible persons could avert an estimated 15.7% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 11.2%-20.7%; NNT: 17 310) and 23.5% (95% UI, 13.1%-30.0%; NNT: 67) of total COVID-19-related deaths, respectively. In the high-risk group of persons ≥65 years old alone, increased uptake of bivalent boosters and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir could avert an estimated 11.9% (95% UI, 8.4%-15.1%; NNT: 2757) and 22.8% (95% UI, 12.7%-29.2%; NNT: 50) of total COVID-19-related deaths, respectively. Conclusions: These findings suggest that prioritizing uptake of bivalent boosters and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir among older age groups (≥65 years) would be most effective (based on NNT) but would not address the entire burden of severe COVID-19.

Public Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Screening for Active Tuberculosis Disease or Infection Among Children in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Although tuberculosis disease is a leading cause of global childhood mortality, there remain major gaps in diagnosis, treatment, and prevention in children because tuberculosis control programs rely predominantly on presentation of symptomatic children or contact tracing. We assessed the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of age-based routine screening and contact tracing in children in South Africa. METHODS: We used a deterministic mathematical model to evaluate age-based routine screening in 1-year increments from ages 0 to 5 years, with and without contact tracing and preventive treatment. Screening incorporated symptom history and tuberculin skin testing, with chest x-ray and GeneXpert Ultra for confirmatory testing. We projected tuberculosis cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and costs (in 2021 U.S. dollars) and evaluated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios comparing each intervention. RESULTS: Routine screening at age 2 years with contact tracing and preventive treatment averted 11 900 tuberculosis cases (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6160-15 730), 1360 deaths (95% CI: 260-3800), and 40 000 DALYs (95% CI: 13 000-100 000) in the South Africa pediatric population over 1 year compared with the status quo. This combined strategy was cost-effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio $9050 per DALY; 95% CI: 2890-22 920) and remained cost-effective above an annual risk of infection of 1.6%. For annual risk of infection between 0.8% and 1.6%, routine screening at age 2 years was the dominant strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Routine screening for tuberculosis among young children combined with contact tracing and preventive treatment would have a large public health impact and be cost-effective in preventing pediatric tuberculosis deaths in high-incidence settings such as South Africa.

Predicting the public health impact of bivalent vaccines and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir against COVID-19.

Background: Uptake of COVID-19 bivalent vaccines and oral medication nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (Paxlovid) has remained low across the United States. Assessing the public health impact of increasing uptake of these interventions in key risk groups can guide further public health resources and policy. Methods: This modeling study used person-level data from the California Department of Public Health on COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and vaccine administration from July 23, 2022 to January 23, 2023. We modeled the impact of additional uptake of bivalent COVID-19 vaccines and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir during acute illness in different risk groups defined by age (50+, 65+, 75+ years) and vaccination status (everyone, primary series only, previously vaccinated). We predicted the number of averted COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths and number needed to treat (NNT). Results: For both bivalent vaccines and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir, the most efficient strategy (based on NNT) for averting severe COVID-19 was targeting the 75+ years group. We predicted that perfect coverage of bivalent boosters in the 75+ years group would avert 3,920 hospitalizations (95%UI: 2,491-4,882; 7.8% total averted; NNT 387) and 1,074 deaths (95%UI: 774-1,355; 16.2% total averted; NNT 1,410). Perfect uptake of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir in the 75+ years group would avert 5,644 hospitalizations (95%UI: 3,947-6,826; 11.2% total averted; NNT 11) and 1,669 deaths (95%UI: 1,053-2,038; 25.2% total averted; NNT 35). Conclusions: These findings suggest prioritizing uptake of bivalent boosters and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir among the oldest age groups would be efficient and have substantial public health impact in reducing the burden of severe COVID-19, but would not address the entire burden of severe COVID-19.

The evolution of intramitochondriality in Midichloria bacteria.

Midichloria spp. are intracellular bacterial symbionts of ticks. Representatives of this genus colonise mitochondria in the cells of their hosts. To shed light on this unique interaction we evaluated the presence of an intramitochondrial localization for three Midichloria in the respective tick host species and generated eight high-quality draft genomes and one closed genome, showing that this trait is non-monophyletic, either due to losses or multiple acquisitions. Comparative genomics supports the first hypothesis, as the genomes of non-mitochondrial symbionts are reduced subsets of those capable of colonising the organelles. We detect genomic signatures of mitochondrial tropism, including the differential presence of type IV secretion system and flagellum, which could allow the secretion of unique effectors and/or direct interaction with mitochondria. Other genes, including adhesion molecules, proteins involved in actin polymerisation, cell wall and outer membrane proteins, are only present in mitochondrial symbionts. The bacteria could use these to manipulate host structures, including mitochondrial membranes, to fuse with the organelles or manipulate the mitochondrial network.

Perspective on Schistosomiasis Drug Discovery: Highlights from a Schistosomiasis Drug Discovery Workshop at Wellcome Collection, London, September 2022.

In September 2022, the Drug Discovery Unit at the University of Dundee, UK, organised an international meeting at the Wellcome Collection in London to explore the current clinical situation and challenges associated with treating schistosomiasis. The aim of this meeting was to discuss the need for new treatments in view of the clinical situation and to ascertain what the key requirements would be for any potential new anti-schistosomals. This information will be essential to inform ongoing drug discovery efforts for schistosomiasis. We also discussed the potential drug discovery pathway and associated criteria for progressing compounds to the clinic. To date, praziquantel (PZQ) is the only drug available to treat all species causing schistosomiasis, but it is often unable to completely clear parasites from an infected patient, partially due to its inactivity against juvenile worms. PZQ-mediated mass drug administration campaigns conducted in endemic areas (e.g., sub-Saharan Africa, where schistosomiasis is primarily prevalent) have contributed to reducing the burden of disease but will not eliminate the disease as a public health problem. The potential for Schistosoma to develop resistance towards PZQ, as the sole treatment available, could become a concern. Consequently, new anthelmintic medications are urgently needed, and this Perspective aims to capture some of the learnings from our discussions on the key criteria for new treatments.

Phylogenetic analysis of Blaberoidea reveals non-monophyly of taxa and supports the creation of multiple new subfamilies.

The superfamily Blaberoidea is a highly species-rich group of cockroaches. High-level blaberoidean phylogenetics are still under debate owing to variable taxon sampling and incongruence between mitochondrial and nuclear evolution, as well as different methods used in various phylogenetic studies. We here present a phylogenetic analysis of Blaberoidea based on a dataset combining the mitochondrial genome with two nuclear markers from representatives of all recognized families within the superfamily. Our results support the monophyly of Blaberiodea, which includes Ectobiidae s.s. (=Ectobiinae), Pseudophyllodromiidae, Nyctiboridae, Blattellidae s.s. (=Blattellinae) and Blaberidae. Ectobiidae s.s. was recovered as sister to the remaining Blaberoidea in all inferences. Pseudophyllodromiidae was paraphyletic with respect to Anaplectoidea + Malaccina. Blattellidae s.s. excluding Anaplectoidea + Malaccina formed a monophyletic group that was sister to Blaberidae. Based on our results, we propose a revised classification for Blaberoidea: Anaplectoidinae subfam.nov. and Episorineuchora gen.nov., and two new combinations at species level within Pseudophyllodromiidae; Rhabdoblattellinae subfam.nov., Calolamprodinae subfam.nov., Acutirhabdoblatta gen.nov., as well as new combinations for three species within Blaberidae. Ancestral state reconstructions based on four morphological characters allow us to infer that the common ancestor of blaberoid cockroaches is likely to be a species with characteristics similar to those found in Ectobiidae, that is, front femur Type B, arolium present, abdomen with a visible gland and male genital hook on the left side.

Burden of Typhoid and Paratyphoid Fever in India.

BACKGROUND: In 2017, more than half the cases of typhoid fever worldwide were projected to have occurred in India. In the absence of contemporary population-based data, it is unclear whether declining trends of hospitalization for typhoid in India reflect increased antibiotic treatment or a true reduction in infection. METHODS: From 2017 through 2020, we conducted weekly surveillance for acute febrile illness and measured the incidence of typhoid fever (as confirmed on blood culture) in a prospective cohort of children between the ages of 6 months and 14 years at three urban sites and one rural site in India. At an additional urban site and five rural sites, we combined blood-culture testing of hospitalized patients who had a fever with survey data regarding health care use to estimate incidence in the community. RESULTS: A total of 24,062 children who were enrolled in four cohorts contributed 46,959 child-years of observation. Among these children, 299 culture-confirmed typhoid cases were recorded, with an incidence per 100,000 child-years of 576 to 1173 cases in urban sites and 35 in rural Pune. The estimated incidence of typhoid fever from hospital surveillance ranged from 12 to 1622 cases per 100,000 child-years among children between the ages of 6 months and 14 years and from 108 to 970 cases per 100,000 person-years among those who were 15 years of age or older. Salmonella enterica serovar Paratyphi was isolated from 33 children, for an overall incidence of 68 cases per 100,000 child-years after adjustment for age. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of typhoid fever in urban India remains high, with generally lower estimates of incidence in most rural areas. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; NSSEFI Clinical Trials Registry of India number, CTRI/2017/09/009719; ISRCTN registry number, ISRCTN72938224.).

Molecular phylogeny of Spirotrichonymphea (Parabasalia) with emphasis on Spironympha, Spirotrichonympha, and three new genera Pseudospironympha, Nanospironympha, and Brugerollina.

Spirotrichonymphea, one of the six classes of phylum Parabasalia, are characterized by bearing many flagella in spiral rows, and they occur exclusively in the guts of termites. Phylogenetic relationships among the 13 described genera are not well understood due to complex morphological evolution and a paucity of molecular data. One such understudied genus is Spironympha. It has been variously considered a valid genus, a subgenus of Spirotrichonympha, or an "immature" life cycle stage of Spirotrichonympha. To clarify this, we sequenced the small subunit rRNA gene sequences of Spironympha and Spirotrichonympha cells isolated from the hindguts of Reticulitermes species and Hodotermopsis sjostedti and confirmed the molecular identity of H. sjostedti symbionts using fluorescence in situ hybridization. Spironympha as currently circumscribed is polyphyletic, with both H. sjostedti symbiont species branching separately from the "true" Spironympha from Reticulitermes. Similarly, the Spirotrichonympha symbiont of H. sjostedti branches separately from the "true" Spirotrichonympha found in Reticulitermes. Our data support Spironympha from Reticulitermes as a valid genus most closely related to Spirotrichonympha, though its monophyly and interspecific relationships are not resolved in our molecular phylogenetic analysis. We propose three new genera to accommodate the H. sjostedti symbionts and two new species of Spirotrichonympha from Reticulitermes.

Infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections and reinfections during the Omicron wave.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals and reinfections in previously infected individuals have become increasingly common. Such infections highlight a broader need to understand the contribution of vaccination, including booster doses, and natural immunity to the infectiousness of individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infections, especially in high-risk populations with intense transmission, such as in prisons. Here we show that both vaccine-derived and naturally acquired immunity independently reduce the infectiousness of persons with Omicron variant SARS-CoV-2 infections in a prison setting. Analyzing SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data from December 2021 to May 2022 across 35 California state prisons with a predominately male population, we estimate that unvaccinated Omicron cases had a 36% (95% confidence interval (CI): 31-42%) risk of transmitting infection to close contacts, as compared to a 28% (25-31%) risk among vaccinated cases. In adjusted analyses, we estimated that any vaccination, prior infection alone and both vaccination and prior infection reduced an index case's risk of transmitting infection by 22% (6-36%), 23% (3-39%) and 40% (20-55%), respectively. Receipt of booster doses and more recent vaccination further reduced infectiousness among vaccinated cases. These findings suggest that, although vaccinated and/or previously infected individuals remain highly infectious upon SARS-CoV-2 infection in this prison setting, their infectiousness is reduced compared to individuals without any history of vaccination or infection. This study underscores benefit of vaccination to reduce, but not eliminate, transmission.

Evaluation of the US Definitions for Coronavirus Disease 2019 Community Risk Levels.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) defines a county metric of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) community levels to inform public health measures. We find that the COVID-19 community levels vary frequently over time, which may not be optimal for decision making. Alternative metric formulations that do not compromise predictive ability are shown to reduce variability.