Assessing the Influence of COVID-19 on the Shortwave Radiative Fluxes Over the East Asian Marginal Seas.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic led to a widespread reduction in aerosol emissions. Using satellite observations and climate model simulations, we study the underlying mechanisms of the large decreases in solar clear-sky reflection (3.8 W m-2 or 7%) and aerosol optical depth (0.16 W m-2 or 32%) observed over the East Asian Marginal Seas in March 2020. By separating the impacts from meteorology and emissions in the model simulations, we find that about one-third of the clear-sky anomalies can be attributed to pandemic-related emission reductions, and the rest to weather variability and long-term emission trends. The model is skillful at reproducing the observed interannual variations in solar all-sky reflection, but no COVID-19 signal is discerned. The current observational and modeling capabilities will be critical for monitoring, understanding, and predicting the radiative forcing and climate impacts of the ongoing crisis.

Observation-Based Decomposition of Radiative Perturbations and Radiative Kernels.

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES)-partial radiative perturbation [PRP (CERES-PRP)] methodology applies partial-radiative-perturbation-like calculations to observational datasets to directly isolate the individual cloud, atmospheric, and surface property contributions to the variability of the radiation budget. The results of these calculations can further be used to construct radiative kernels. A suite of monthly mean observation-based inputs are used for the radiative transfer, including cloud properties from either the diurnally resolved passive-sensor-based CERES synoptic (SYN) data or the combination of the CloudSat cloud radar and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) lidar. The CloudSat/CALIPSO cloud profiles are incorporated via a clustering method that obtains monthly mean cloud properties suitable for accurate radiative transfer calculations. The computed fluxes are validated using the TOA fluxes observed by CERES. Applications of the CERES-PRP methodology are demonstrated by computing the individual contributions to the variability of the radiation budget over multiple years and by deriving water vapor radiative kernels. The calculations for the former are used to show that an approximately linear decomposition of the total flux anomalies is achieved. The observation-based water vapor kernels were used to investigate the accuracy of the GCM-based NCAR CAM3.0 water vapor kernel. Differences between our observation-based kernel and the NCAR one are marginally larger than those inferred by previous comparisons among different GCM kernels.

On the Lessons Learned from the Operations of the ERBE Nonscanner Instrument in Space and the Production of the Nonscanner TOA Radiation Budget Dataset.

Monitoring the flow of radiative energy at top-of-atmosphere (TOA) is essential for understanding the Earth's climate and how it is changing with time. The determination of TOA global net radiation budget using broadband nonscanner instruments has received renewed interest recently due to advances in both instrument technology and the availability of small satellite platforms. The use of such instruments for monitoring Earth's radiation budget was attempted in the past from satellite missions such as the Nimbus 7 and the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). This paper discusses the important lessons learned from the operation of the ERBE nonscanner instrument and the production of the ERBE nonscanner TOA radiation budget data set that have direct relevance to current nonscanner instrument efforts.

Evaluation of satellite and reanalysis-based global net surface energy flux and uncertainty estimates.

The net surface energy flux is central to the climate system yet observational limitations lead to substantial uncertainty. A combination of satellite-derived radiative fluxes at the top of atmosphere adjusted using the latest estimation of the net heat uptake of the Earth system, and the atmospheric energy tendencies and transports from the ERA-Interim reanalysis are used to estimate surface energy flux globally. To consider snowmelt and improve regional realism, land surface fluxes are adjusted through a simple energy balance approach at each grid point. This energy adjustment is redistributed over the oceans to ensure energy conservation and maintain realistic global ocean heat uptake, using a weighting function to avoid meridional discontinuities. Calculated surface energy fluxes are evaluated through comparison to ocean reanalyses. Derived turbulent energy flux variability is compared with the Objectively Analyzed air-sea Fluxes (OAFLUX) product, and inferred meridional energy transports in the global ocean and the Atlantic are also evaluated using observations. Uncertainties in surface fluxes are investigated using a variety of approaches including comparison with a range of atmospheric reanalysis products. Decadal changes in the global mean and the interhemispheric energy imbalances are quantified, and present day cross-equator heat transports are reevaluated at 0.22 ± 0.15 PW (petawatts) southward by the atmosphere and 0.32 ± 0.16 PW northward by the ocean considering the observed ocean heat sinks.

Determination of CERES TOA fluxes using Machine learning algorithms. Part I: Classification and retrieval of CERES cloudy and clear scenes.

Continuous monitoring of the Earth radiation budget (ERB) is critical to our understanding of the Earth's climate and its variability with time. The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument is able to provide a long record of ERB for such scientific studies. This manuscript, which is first of a two-part paper, describes the new CERES algorithm for improving the clear/cloudy scene classification without the use of coincident cloud imager data. This new CERES algorithm is based on a subset of modern artificial intelligence (AI) paradigm called Machine Learning (ML) algorithms. This paper describes development and application of the ML algorithm known as Random Forests (RF) which is used to classify CERES broadband footprint measurements into clear and cloudy scenes. Results from the RF analysis carried using the CERES Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) data for the months of January and July are presented in the manuscript. The daytime RF misclassification rate (MCR) shows relatively large values (>30%) for snow, sea ice and bright desert surface types while lower values of (<10%) for forest surface type. MCR values observed for the nighttime data in general show relatively larger values for most of the surface types compared to the daytime MCR values. The modified MCR values show lower values (< 4%) for most surface types after thin cloud data is excluded from the analysis. Sensitivity analysis shows that the number of input variables and decision trees used in the RF analysis has substantial influence in determining the classification error.

Understanding Climate Feedbacks and Sensitivity Using Observations of Earth's Energy Budget.

While climate models and observations generally agree that climate feedbacks collectively amplify the surface temperature response to radiative forcing, the strength of the feedback estimates varies greatly, resulting in appreciable uncertainty in equilibrium climate sensitivity. Because climate feedbacks respond differently to different spatial variations in temperature, short-term observational records have thus far only provided a weak constraint for climate feedbacks operating under global warming. Further complicating matters is the likelihood of considerable time variation in the effective global climate feedback parameter under transient warming. There is a need to continue to revisit the underlying assumptions used in the traditional forcing-feedback framework, with an emphasis on how climate models and observations can best be utilized to reduce the uncertainties. Model simulations can also guide observational requirements and provide insight on how the observational record can most effectively be analyzed in order to make progress in this critical area of climate research.

Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models.

Observational analyses of running 5 year ocean heat content trends (Ht) and net downward top of atmosphere radiation (N) are significantly correlated (r ∼ 0.6) from 1960 to 1999, but a spike in Ht in the early 2000s is likely spurious since it is inconsistent with estimates of N from both satellite observations and climate model simulations. Variations in N between 1960 and 2000 were dominated by volcanic eruptions and are well simulated by the ensemble mean of coupled models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We find an observation-based reduction in N of - 0.31 ± 0.21 W m-2 between 1999 and 2005 that potentially contributed to the recent warming slowdown, but the relative roles of external forcing and internal variability remain unclear. While present-day anomalies of N in the CMIP5 ensemble mean and observations agree, this may be due to a cancelation of errors in outgoing longwave and absorbed solar radiation. KEY POINTS: Observed maximum in ocean heat content trend in early 2000s is likely spuriousNet incoming radiation (N) reduced by 0.31 ± 0.21 W m-2 during the warming pausePresent-day estimates of N may contain opposing errors in radiative components.

Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985-2012.

Combining satellite data, atmospheric reanalyses, and climate model simulations, variability in the net downward radiative flux imbalance at the top of Earth's atmosphere (N) is reconstructed and linked to recent climate change. Over the 1985-1999 period mean N (0.34 ± 0.67 Wm-2) is lower than for the 2000-2012 period (0.62 ± 0.43 Wm-2, uncertainties at 90% confidence level) despite the slower rate of surface temperature rise since 2000. While the precise magnitude of N remains uncertain, the reconstruction captures interannual variability which is dominated by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Monthly deseasonalized interannual variability in N generated by an ensemble of nine climate model simulations using prescribed sea surface temperature and radiative forcings and from the satellite-based reconstruction is significantly correlated (r∼0.6) over the 1985-2012 period.

Light scattering by an infinite circular cylinder immersed in an absorbing medium.

Analytic solutions are developed for the single-scattering properties of an infinite dielectric cylinder embedded in an absorbing medium with normal incidence, which include extinction, scattering and absorption efficiencies, the scattering phase function, and the asymmetry factor. The extinction and scattering efficiencies are derived by the near-field solutions at the surface of the particle. The normalized scattering phase function is obtained by use of the far-field approximation. Computational results show that, although the absorbing medium significantly reduces the scattering efficiency, it has little effect on absorption efficiency. The absorbing medium can significantly change the conventional phase function. The absorbing medium also strongly affects the polarization of the scattered light. However, for large absorbing particles the degrees of polarization change little with the medium's absorption. This implies that, if the transmitting lights are strongly weakened inside the particle, the scattered polarized lights can be used to identify objects even when the absorption property of the host medium is unknown, which is important for both active and passive remote sensing.

Finite-difference time-domain solution of light scattering by an infinite dielectric column immersed in an absorbing medium.

The two-dimensional (2-D) finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method is applied to calculate light scattering and absorption by an arbitrarily shaped infinite column embedded in an absorbing dielectric medium. A uniaxial perfectly matched layer (UPML) absorbing boundary condition is used to truncate the computational domain. The single-scattering properties of the infinite column embedded in the absorbing medium, including scattering phase functions and extinction and absorption efficiencies, are derived by use of an area integration of the internal field. An exact solution for light scattering and absorption by a circular cylinder in an absorbing medium is used to examine the accuracy of the 2-D UPML FDTD code. With use of a cell size of 1/120 incident wavelength in the FDTD calculations, the errors in the extinction and absorption efficiencies and asymmetry factors from the 2-D UPML FDTD are generally smaller than approximately 0.1%. The errors in the scattering phase functions are typically smaller than approximately 4%. With the 2-D UPML FDTD technique, light scattering and absorption by long noncircular columns embedded in absorbing media can be accurately solved.

Examination of surface roughness on light scattering by long ice columns by use of a two-dimensional finite-difference time-domain algorithm.

Natural particles such as ice crystals in cirrus clouds generally are not pristine but have additional microroughness on their surfaces. A two-dimensional finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) program with a perfectly matched layer absorbing boundary condition is developed to calculate the effect of surface roughness on light scattering by long ice columns. When we use a spatial cell size of 1/120 incident wavelength for ice circular cylinders with size parameters of 6 and 24 at wavelengths of 0.55 and 10.8 microm, respectively, the errors in the FDTD results in the extinction, scattering, and absorption efficiencies are smaller than approximately 0.5%. The errors in the FDTD results in the asymmetry factor are smaller than approximately 0.05%. The errors in the FDTD results in the phase-matrix elements are smaller than approximately 5%. By adding a pseudorandom change as great as 10% of the radius of a cylinder, we calculate the scattering properties of randomly oriented rough-surfaced ice columns. We conclude that, although the effect of small surface roughness on light scattering is negligible, the scattering phase-matrix elements change significantly for particles with large surface roughness. The roughness on the particle surface can make the conventional phase function smooth. The most significant effect of the surface roughness is the decay of polarization of the scattered light.

Finite-difference time-domain solution of light scattering and absorption by particles in an absorbing medium.

The three-dimensional (3-D) finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) technique has been extended to simulate light scattering and absorption by nonspherical particles embedded in an absorbing dielectric medium. A uniaxial perfectly matched layer (UPML) absorbing boundary condition is used to truncate the computational domain. When computing the single-scattering properties of a particle in an absorbing dielectric medium, we derive the single-scattering properties including scattering phase functions, extinction, and absorption efficiencies using a volume integration of the internal field. A Mie solution for light scattering and absorption by spherical particles in an absorbing medium is used to examine the accuracy of the 3-D UPML FDTD code. It is found that the errors in the extinction and absorption efficiencies from the 3-D UPML FDTD are less than approximately 2%. The errors in the scattering phase functions are typically less than approximately 5%. The errors in the asymmetry factors are less than approximately 0.1%. For light scattering by particles in free space, the accuracy of the 3-D UPML FDTD scheme is similar to a previous model [Appl. Opt. 38, 3141 (1999)].