Predictive models of long COVID.

BACKGROUND: The cause and symptoms of long COVID are poorly understood. It is challenging to predict whether a given COVID-19 patient will develop long COVID in the future. METHODS: We used electronic health record (EHR) data from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative to predict the incidence of long COVID. We trained two machine learning (ML) models - logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF). Features used to train predictors included symptoms and drugs ordered during acute infection, measures of COVID-19 treatment, pre-COVID comorbidities, and demographic information. We assigned the 'long COVID' label to patients diagnosed with the U09.9 ICD10-CM code. The cohorts included patients with (a) EHRs reported from data partners using U09.9 ICD10-CM code and (b) at least one EHR in each feature category. We analysed three cohorts: all patients (n = 2,190,579; diagnosed with long COVID = 17,036), inpatients (149,319; 3,295), and outpatients (2,041,260; 13,741). FINDINGS: LR and RF models yielded median AUROC of 0.76 and 0.75, respectively. Ablation study revealed that drugs had the highest influence on the prediction task. The SHAP method identified age, gender, cough, fatigue, albuterol, obesity, diabetes, and chronic lung disease as explanatory features. Models trained on data from one N3C partner and tested on data from the other partners had average AUROC of 0.75. INTERPRETATION: ML-based classification using EHR information from the acute infection period is effective in predicting long COVID. SHAP methods identified important features for prediction. Cross-site analysis demonstrated the generalizability of the proposed methodology. FUNDING: NCATS U24 TR002306, NCATS UL1 TR003015, Axle Informatics Subcontract: NCATS-P00438-B, NIH/NIDDK/OD, PSR2015-1720GVALE_01, G43C22001320007, and Director, Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences of the U.S. Department of Energy Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

Increased stroke severity and mortality in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection: An analysis from the N3C database.

BACKGROUND: Studies from early in the COVID-19 pandemic showed that patients with ischemic stroke and concurrent SARS-CoV-2 infection had increased stroke severity. We aimed to test the hypothesis that this association persisted throughout the first year of the pandemic and that a similar increase in stroke severity was present in patients with hemorrhagic stroke. METHODS: Using the National Institute of Health National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) database, we identified a cohort of patients with stroke hospitalized in the United States between March 1, 2020 and February 28, 2021. We propensity score matched patients with concurrent stroke and SARS-COV-2 infection and available NIH Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores to all other patients with stroke in a 1:3 ratio. Nearest neighbor matching with a caliper of 0.25 was used for most factors and exact matching was used for race/ethnicity and site. We modeled stroke severity as measured by admission NIHSS and the outcomes of death and length of stay. We also explored the temporal relationship between time of SARS-COV-2 diagnosis and incidence of stroke. RESULTS: Our query identified 43,295 patients hospitalized with ischemic stroke (5765 with SARS-COV-2, 37,530 without) and 18,107 patients hospitalized with hemorrhagic stroke (2114 with SARS-COV-2, 15,993 without). Analysis of our propensity matched cohort revealed that stroke patients with concurrent SARS-COV-2 had increased NIHSS (Ischemic stroke: IRR=1.43, 95% CI:1.33-1.52, p<0.001; hemorrhagic stroke: IRR=1.20, 95% CI:1.08-1.33, p<0.001), length of stay (Ischemic stroke: estimate = 1.48, 95% CI: 1.37, 1.61, p<0.001; hemorrhagic stroke: estimate = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.47, p=0.007) and higher odds of death (Ischemic stroke: OR 2.19, 95% CI: 1.79-2.68, p<0.001; hemorrhagic stroke: OR 2.19, 95% CI: 1.79-2.68, p<0.001). We observed the highest incidence of stroke diagnosis on the same day as SARS-COV-2 diagnosis with a logarithmic decline in counts. CONCLUSION: This retrospective observational analysis suggests that stroke severity in patients with concurrent SARS-COV-2 was increased throughout the first year of the pandemic.

Generalisable long COVID subtypes: findings from the NIH N3C and RECOVER programmes.

BACKGROUND: Stratification of patients with post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC, or long COVID) would allow precision clinical management strategies. However, long COVID is incompletely understood and characterised by a wide range of manifestations that are difficult to analyse computationally. Additionally, the generalisability of machine learning classification of COVID-19 clinical outcomes has rarely been tested. METHODS: We present a method for computationally modelling PASC phenotype data based on electronic healthcare records (EHRs) and for assessing pairwise phenotypic similarity between patients using semantic similarity. Our approach defines a nonlinear similarity function that maps from a feature space of phenotypic abnormalities to a matrix of pairwise patient similarity that can be clustered using unsupervised machine learning. FINDINGS: We found six clusters of PASC patients, each with distinct profiles of phenotypic abnormalities, including clusters with distinct pulmonary, neuropsychiatric, and cardiovascular abnormalities, and a cluster associated with broad, severe manifestations and increased mortality. There was significant association of cluster membership with a range of pre-existing conditions and measures of severity during acute COVID-19. We assigned new patients from other healthcare centres to clusters by maximum semantic similarity to the original patients, and showed that the clusters were generalisable across different hospital systems. The increased mortality rate originally identified in one cluster was consistently observed in patients assigned to that cluster in other hospital systems. INTERPRETATION: Semantic phenotypic clustering provides a foundation for assigning patients to stratified subgroups for natural history or therapy studies on PASC. FUNDING: NIH (TR002306/OT2HL161847-01/OD011883/HG010860), U.S.D.O.E. (DE-AC02-05CH11231), Donald A. Roux Family Fund at Jackson Laboratory, Marsico Family at CU Anschutz.

Dupilumab Use Is Associated With Protection From Coronavirus Disease 2019 Mortality: A Retrospective Analysis.

We previously found that type 2 immunity promotes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pathogenesis in a mouse model. To test relevance to human disease, we used electronic health record databases and determined that patients on dupilumab (anti-interleukin [IL]-4R monoclonal antibody that blocks IL-13 and IL-4 signaling) at the time of COVID-19 infection had lower mortality.

Generalizable Long COVID Subtypes: Findings from the NIH N3C and RECOVER Programs.

Accurate stratification of patients with post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC, or long COVID) would allow precision clinical management strategies. However, the natural history of long COVID is incompletely understood and characterized by an extremely wide range of manifestations that are difficult to analyze computationally. In addition, the generalizability of machine learning classification of COVID-19 clinical outcomes has rarely been tested. We present a method for computationally modeling PASC phenotype data based on electronic healthcare records (EHRs) and for assessing pairwise phenotypic similarity between patients using semantic similarity. Our approach defines a nonlinear similarity function that maps from a feature space of phenotypic abnormalities to a matrix of pairwise patient similarity that can be clustered using unsupervised machine learning procedures. Using k-means clustering of this similarity matrix, we found six distinct clusters of PASC patients, each with distinct profiles of phenotypic abnormalities. There was a significant association of cluster membership with a range of pre-existing conditions and with measures of severity during acute COVID-19. Two of the clusters were associated with severe manifestations and displayed increased mortality. We assigned new patients from other healthcare centers to one of the six clusters on the basis of maximum semantic similarity to the original patients. We show that the identified clusters were generalizable across different hospital systems and that the increased mortality rate was consistently observed in two of the clusters. Semantic phenotypic clustering can provide a foundation for assigning patients to stratified subgroups for natural history or therapy studies on PASC.

IL-13 is a driver of COVID-19 severity.

Immune dysregulation is characteristic of the more severe stages of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Understanding the mechanisms by which the immune system contributes to COVID-19 severity may open new avenues to treatment. Here, we report that elevated IL-13 was associated with the need for mechanical ventilation in 2 independent patient cohorts. In addition, patients who acquired COVID-19 while prescribed Dupilumab, a mAb that blocks IL-13 and IL-4 signaling, had less severe disease. In SARS-CoV-2-infected mice, IL-13 neutralization reduced death and disease severity without affecting viral load, demonstrating an immunopathogenic role for this cytokine. Following anti-IL-13 treatment in infected mice, hyaluronan synthase 1 (Has1) was the most downregulated gene, and accumulation of the hyaluronan (HA) polysaccharide was decreased in the lung. In patients with COVID-19, HA was increased in the lungs and plasma. Blockade of the HA receptor, CD44, reduced mortality in infected mice, supporting the importance of HA as a pathogenic mediator. Finally, HA was directly induced in the lungs of mice by administration of IL-13, indicating a new role for IL-13 in lung disease. Understanding the role of IL-13 and HA has important implications for therapy of COVID-19 and, potentially, other pulmonary diseases. IL-13 levels were elevated in patients with severe COVID-19. In a mouse model of the disease, IL-13 neutralization reduced the disease and decreased lung HA deposition. Administration of IL-13-induced HA in the lung. Blockade of the HA receptor CD44 prevented mortality, highlighting a potentially novel mechanism for IL-13-mediated HA synthesis in pulmonary pathology.

IL-13 is a driver of COVID-19 severity.

Immune dysregulation is characteristic of the more severe stages of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Understanding the mechanisms by which the immune system contributes to COVID-19 severity may open new avenues to treatment. Here we report that elevated interleukin-13 (IL-13) was associated with the need for mechanical ventilation in two independent patient cohorts. In addition, patients who acquired COVID-19 while prescribed Dupilumab had less severe disease. In SARS-CoV-2 infected mice, IL-13 neutralization reduced death and disease severity without affecting viral load, demonstrating an immunopathogenic role for this cytokine. Following anti-IL-13 treatment in infected mice, in the lung, hyaluronan synthase 1 (Has1) was the most downregulated gene and hyaluronan accumulation was decreased. Blockade of the hyaluronan receptor, CD44, reduced mortality in infected mice, supporting the importance of hyaluronan as a pathogenic mediator, and indicating a new role for IL-13 in lung disease. Understanding the role of IL-13 and hyaluronan has important implications for therapy of COVID-19 and potentially other pulmonary diseases.

Safety and pharmacokinetics of sodium nitrite in patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage: a phase IIa study.

OBJECT: Intravenous sodium nitrite has been shown to prevent and reverse cerebral vasospasm in a primate model of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). The present Phase IIA dose-escalation study of sodium nitrite was conducted to determine the compound's safety in humans with aneurysmal SAH and to establish its pharmacokinetics during a 14-day infusion. Methods In 18 patients (3 cohorts of 6 patients each) with SAH from a ruptured cerebral aneurysm, nitrite (3 patients) or saline (3 patients) was infused. Sodium nitrite and saline were delivered intravenously for 14 days, and a dose-escalation scheme was used for the nitrite, with a maximum dose of 64 nmol/kg/min. Sodium nitrite blood levels were frequently sampled and measured using mass spectroscopy, and blood methemoglobin levels were continuously monitored using a pulse oximeter. RESULTS: In the 14-day infusions in critically ill patients with SAH, there was no toxicity or systemic hypotension, and blood methemoglobin levels remained at 3.3% or less in all patients. Nitrite levels increased rapidly during intravenous infusion and reached steady-state levels by 12 hours after the start of infusion on Day 1. The nitrite plasma half-life was less than 1 hour across all dose levels evaluated after stopping nitrite infusions on Day 14. CONCLUSIONS: Previous preclinical investigations of sodium nitrite for the prevention and reversal of vasospasm in a primate model of SAH were effective using doses similar to the highest dose examined in the current study (64 nmol/kg/min). Results of the current study suggest that safe and potentially therapeutic levels of nitrite can be achieved and sustained in critically ill patients after SAH from a ruptured cerebral aneurysm.