Parental education and occupation in relation to childhood type 1 diabetes: nationwide cohort study.

BackgroundSocioeconomic status in the risk of developing type 1 diabetes seems inconsistent. We investigated whether risk of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes differed by parental education or occupation in a nationwide cohort. METHODS: This cohort study included all children born in Norway from 1974 to 2013. In individually linked data from nationwide population registries following children born in Norway up to 15 years of age, we identified 4647 with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes during 15 381 923 person-years of follow-up. RESULTS: Children of mothers with a master's degree had lower risk of type 1 diabetes than children of mothers with completed upper secondary education only (adjusted incidence rate ratio, aIRR=0.82 95% CI: 0.70 to 0.95). There was no difference between upper secondary and lower secondary maternal education (aIRR=0.98, 95% CI: 0.89 to 1.08). Paternal education was not significantly associated with type 1 diabetes, lower secondary compared with upper secondary aIRR 0.96 (0.88-1.05) and master compared with upper secondary aIRR 0.93 (0.83-1.05). While maternal elementary occupation was associated with a lower risk of type 1 diabetes, specific maternal or paternal occupations were not. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggested inverse U-shaped associations between maternal socioeconomic status and risk of type 1 diabetes. Non-linear associations may be part of the reason why previous literature has been inconsistent.

Prevalence and treatment of gestational diabetes in Norway 2010-2020.

AIMS: Estimate prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and its treatment in Norway 2010-2020 and explore impact of new national GDM guidelines in 2017. METHODS: We identified women giving birth in a nationwide cohort study using registers on births, prescriptions, education, primary and specialist care. For each year, we estimated prevalence of GDM overall, by BMI, age, education, and mother's birthplace; proportions of GDM pregnancies receiving pharmacological treatment; and distribution of the gestational week when GDM was diagnosed. RESULTS: In 633,169 pregnancies, prevalence of GDM increased from 2.6 % in 2010 to 6.0 % in 2016, then stabilized. Similar patterns were seen across strata of BMI, age, education, and maternal birthplace, although prevalence was higher with higher BMI, higher age, lower education, and mothers born in Asia, Africa, or Middle East. The proportion of the GDM population pharmacologically treated increased from 11.6 % in 2010 to 13.6 % in 2016 and 31.6 % in 2020. GDM was diagnosed in recommended gestational week 24-28 in 19 % versus 45 % of GDM pregnancies in 2010 and 2020, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Both the proportion diagnosed with GDM within recommended time of screening, and who received pharmacological treatment, increased substantially following new guidelines in 2017. Prevalence of GDM increased from 2010 to 2016, then plateaued.

Is socio-economic status associated with risk of childhood type 1 diabetes? Literature review.

AIMS: Studies of social inequality and risk of developing type 1 diabetes are inconsistent. The present review aimed to comprehensively review relevant literature and describe what has been reported on socio-economic status or parental occupation and risk of type 1 diabetes in children. METHODS: We searched for publications between 1 January 1970 and 30 November 2021. We focused on the most recent and/or informative publication in cases of multiple publications from the same data source and referred to these as primary studies. RESULTS: Our search identified 69 publications with relevant data. We identified eight primary cohort studies with individual-level data, which we considered the highest quality of evidence. Furthermore, we identified 13 primary case-control studies and 14 semi-ecological studies with area-level socio-economic status variables which provided a weaker quality of evidence. Four of eight primary cohort studies contained data on maternal education, showing non-linear associations with type 1 diabetes that were not consistent across studies. There was no consistent pattern on the association of parental occupation and childhood-onset type 1 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: There is a need for more high-quality studies, but the existing literature does not suggest a major and consistent role of socio-economic status in the risk of type 1 diabetes.

Short-term safety of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines with respect to all-cause mortality in the older population in Norway.

BACKGROUND: There have been concerns about COVID-19 vaccination safety among frail older individuals. We investigated the relationship between COVID-19 mRNA vaccination and mortality among individuals aged ≥ 70 years and whether mortality varies across four groups of health services used. METHODS: In this nationwide cohort study, we included 688,152 individuals aged ≥ 70 years at the start of the Norwegian vaccination campaign (December 27, 2020). We collected individual-level data from theNorwegian Emergency Preparedness Register for COVID-19. Vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals were matched (1:1 ratio) on the date of vaccination based on sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. The main outcome was all-cause mortality during 21 days after first dose of COVID-19 mRNA vaccination. Kaplan-Meier survival functions were estimated for the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. We used Cox proportional-hazards regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of death between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, with associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs), overall and by use of health services (none, home-based, short- and long-term nursing homes) and age group. RESULTS: Between December 27, 2020, and March 31, 2021, 420,771 older individuals (61.1%) were vaccinated against COVID-19. The Kaplan-Meier estimates based on the matched study sample showed a small absolute risk difference in all-cause mortality between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, with a lower mortality in the vaccinated group (overall HR 0.28 [95% CI: 0.24-0.31]). Similar results were obtained in analyses stratified by use of health services and age group. CONCLUSION: We found no evidence of increased short-term mortality among vaccinated individuals in the older population after matching on sociodemographic and clinical characteristics affecting vaccination and mortality.

Lifetime risk, life expectancy, and years of life lost to type 2 diabetes in 23 high-income jurisdictions: a multinational, population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes is a major public health issue. Because lifetime risk, life expectancy, and years of life lost are meaningful metrics for clinical decision making, we aimed to estimate these measures for type 2 diabetes in the high-income setting. METHODS: For this multinational, population-based study, we sourced data from 24 databases for 23 jurisdictions (either whole countries or regions of a country): Australia; Austria; Canada; Denmark; Finland; France; Germany; Hong Kong; Hungary; Israel; Italy; Japan; Latvia; Lithuania; the Netherlands; Norway; Scotland; Singapore; South Korea; Spain; Taiwan; the UK; and the USA. Our main outcomes were lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes, life expectancy in people with and without type 2 diabetes, and years of life lost to type 2 diabetes. We modelled the incidence and mortality of type 2 diabetes in people with and without type 2 diabetes in sex-stratified, age-adjusted, and calendar year-adjusted Poisson models for each jurisdiction. Using incidence and mortality, we constructed life tables for people of both sexes aged 20-100 years for each jurisdiction and at two timepoints 5 years apart in the period 2005-19 where possible. Life expectancy from a given age was computed as the area under the survival curves and lifetime lost was calculated as the difference between the expected lifetime of people with versus without type 2 diabetes at a given age. Lifetime risk was calculated as the proportion of each cohort who developed type 2 diabetes between the ages of 20 years and 100 years. We estimated 95% CIs using parametric bootstrapping. FINDINGS: Across all study cohorts from the 23 jurisdictions (total person-years 1 577 234 194), there were 5 119 585 incident cases of type 2 diabetes, 4 007 064 deaths in those with type 2 diabetes, and 11 854 043 deaths in those without type 2 diabetes. The lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes ranged from 16·3% (95% CI 15·6-17·0) for Scottish women to 59·6% (58·5-60·8) for Singaporean men. Lifetime risk declined with time in 11 of the 15 jurisdictions for which two timepoints were studied. Among people with type 2 diabetes, the highest life expectancies were found for both sexes in Japan in 2017-18, where life expectancy at age 20 years was 59·2 years (95% CI 59·2-59·3) for men and 64·1 years (64·0-64·2) for women. The lowest life expectancy at age 20 years with type 2 diabetes was observed in 2013-14 in Lithuania (43·7 years [42·7-44·6]) for men and in 2010-11 in Latvia (54·2 years [53·4-54·9]) for women. Life expectancy in people with type 2 diabetes increased with time for both sexes in all jurisdictions, except for Spain and Scotland. The life expectancy gap between those with and without type 2 diabetes declined substantially in Latvia from 2010-11 to 2015-16 and in the USA from 2009-10 to 2014-15. Years of life lost to type 2 diabetes ranged from 2·5 years (Latvia; 2015-16) to 12·9 years (Israel Clalit Health Services; 2015-16) for 20-year-old men and from 3·1 years (Finland; 2011-12) to 11·2 years (Israel Clalit Health Services; 2010-11 and 2015-16) for 20-year-old women. With time, the expected number of years of life lost to type 2 diabetes decreased in some jurisdictions and increased in others. The greatest decrease in years of life lost to type 2 diabetes occurred in the USA between 2009-10 and 2014-15 for 20-year-old men (a decrease of 2·7 years). INTERPRETATION: Despite declining lifetime risk and improvements in life expectancy for those with type 2 diabetes in many high-income jurisdictions, the burden of type 2 diabetes remains substantial. Public health strategies might benefit from tailored approaches to continue to improve health outcomes for people with diabetes. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Diabetes Australia.

Trends in all-cause mortality among people with diagnosed diabetes in high-income settings: a multicountry analysis of aggregate data.

BACKGROUND: Population-level trends in mortality among people with diabetes are inadequately described. We aimed to examine the magnitude and trends in excess all-cause mortality in people with diabetes. METHODS: In this retrospective, multicountry analysis, we collected aggregate data from 19 data sources in 16 high-income countries or jurisdictions (in six data sources in Asia, eight in Europe, one from Australia, and four from North America) for the period from Jan 1, 1995, to Dec 31, 2016, (or a subset of this period) on all-cause mortality in people with diagnosed total or type 2 diabetes. We collected data from administrative sources, health insurance records, registries, and a health survey. We estimated excess mortality using the standardised mortality ratio (SMR). FINDINGS: In our dataset, there were approximately 21 million deaths during 0·5 billion person-years of follow-up among people with diagnosed diabetes. 17 of 19 data sources showed decreases in the age-standardised and sex-standardised mortality in people with diabetes, among which the annual percentage change in mortality ranged from -0·5% (95% CI -0·7 to -0·3) in Hungary to -4·2% (-4·3 to -4·1) in Hong Kong. The largest decreases in mortality were observed in east and southeast Asia, with a change of -4·2% (95% CI -4·3 to -4·1) in Hong Kong, -4·0% (-4·8 to -3·2) in South Korea, -3·5% (-4·0 to -3·0) in Taiwan, and -3·6% (-4·2 to -2·9) in Singapore. The annual estimated change in SMR between people with and without diabetes ranged from -3·0% (95% CI -3·0 to -2·9; US Medicare) to 1·6% (1·4 to 1·7; Lombardy, Italy). Among the 17 data sources with decreasing mortality among people with diabetes, we found a significant SMR increase in five data sources, no significant SMR change in four data sources, and a significant SMR decrease in eight data sources. INTERPRETATION: All-cause mortality in diabetes has decreased in most of the high-income countries we assessed. In eight of 19 data sources analysed, mortality decreased more rapidly in people with diabetes than in those without diabetes. Further longevity gains will require continued improvement in prevention and management of diabetes. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Diabetes Australia Research Program, and Victoria State Government Operational Infrastructure Support Program.

Trends in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes: a multicountry analysis of aggregate data from 22 million diagnoses in high-income and middle-income settings.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes prevalence is increasing in most places in the world, but prevalence is affected by both risk of developing diabetes and survival of those with diabetes. Diabetes incidence is a better metric to understand the trends in population risk of diabetes. Using a multicountry analysis, we aimed to ascertain whether the incidence of clinically diagnosed diabetes has changed over time. METHODS: In this multicountry data analysis, we assembled aggregated data describing trends in diagnosed total or type 2 diabetes incidence from 24 population-based data sources in 21 countries or jurisdictions. Data were from administrative sources, health insurance records, registries, and a health survey. We modelled incidence rates with Poisson regression, using age and calendar time (1995-2018) as variables, describing the effects with restricted cubic splines with six knots for age and calendar time. FINDINGS: Our data included about 22 million diabetes diagnoses from 5 billion person-years of follow-up. Data were from 19 high-income and two middle-income countries or jurisdictions. 23 data sources had data from 2010 onwards, among which 19 had a downward or stable trend, with an annual estimated change in incidence ranging from -1·1% to -10·8%. Among the four data sources with an increasing trend from 2010 onwards, the annual estimated change ranged from 0·9% to 5·6%. The findings were robust to sensitivity analyses excluding data sources in which the data quality was lower and were consistent in analyses stratified by different diabetes definitions. INTERPRETATION: The incidence of diagnosed diabetes is stabilising or declining in many high-income countries. The reasons for the declines in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes warrant further investigation with appropriate data sources. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Diabetes Australia Research Program, and Victoria State Government Operational Infrastructure Support Program.