Impact of climate change on snowpack dynamics in coastal Central-Western Greenland.

Snow patterns in ice-free areas of Greenland play important roles in ecosystems. Within a changing climate, a comprehensive understanding of the snow responses to climate change is of interest to anticipate forthcoming dynamics in these areas. In this study, we analyze the future snowpack evolution of a polar maritime Arctic location, Qeqertarsuaq (Disko Island, Central-Western Greenland). A physically-based snow model (FSM2) is validated and forced with CMIP6 projections for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 greenhouse gasses emission scenarios, using two models: CanESM5 and MIROC6. The future snowpack evolution is assessed through four key seasonal (October to May) snow climate indicators: snow depth, snow days, snowfall fraction and ablation rate. Comparison against the observed air temperature for the reference climate period demonstrates superior accuracies for MIROC6 SSP2.4-5, with anomalies at 19 %, compared to CanESM5 SSP5.8-5 (25 %) and CanESM5 SSP2.4-5 (78 %). In terms of precipitation, CanESM5 SSP2.4-5 and SSP2.4-5 exhibit smaller anomalies against the observed data (5 %) in contrast to MIROC6 SSP2.4-5 (15 %) and MIROC6 SSP2.8-5 (17 %). Results demonstrate distinct snowpack responses to climate change depending on the model and emission scenario. For CanESM5, seasonal snow depth anomalies with respect to the reference period range from - 38 % (SSP2-4.5, 2040-2050 period) to - 74 % (SSP5-8.5, 2090-2100 period). MIROC6 projects lower snowpack reductions, with a decrease ranging from - 38 % (SSP2-4.5, 2040-2050 period) to - 57 % (SSP5-8.5, 2090-2100 period). Similar reductions are anticipated for snowfall and snow days. Changes in the snowpack evolution are primarily driven by positive trends in downwelling longwave radiation and air temperature. The projected increase in precipitation by the mid to late 21st century will lead to more frequent rain-on-snow events, intensifying snowpack melting. These findings help enhance the comprehension of future snow dynamics in the ice-free zones of Greenland, as well as the associated hydrological and ecological changes.

The impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on surface urban heat island changes and air-quality improvements across 21 major cities in the Middle East.

This study investigates changes in air quality conditions during the restricted COVID-19 lockdown period in 2020 across 21 metropolitan areas in the Middle East and how these relate to surface urban heat island (SUHI) characteristics. Based on satellite observations of atmospheric gases from Sentinel-5, results indicate significant reductions in the levels of atmospheric pollutants, particularly nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and carbon monoxide (CO). Air quality improved significantly during the middle phases of the lockdown (April and May), especially in small metropolitan cities like Amman, Beirut, and Jeddah, while it was less significant in "mega" cities like Cairo, Tehran, and Istanbul. For example, the concentrations of NO2 in Amman, Beirut, and Jeddah decreased by -56.6%, -43.4%, and -32.3%, respectively, during April 2020, compared to April 2019. Rather, there was a small decrease in NO2 levels in megacities like Tehran (-0.9%) and Cairo (-3.1%). Notably, during the lockdown period, there was a decrease in the mean intensity of nighttime SUHI, while the mean intensity of daytime SUHI experienced either an increase or a slight decrease across these locations. Together with the Gulf metropolitans (e.g. Kuwait, Dubai, and Muscat), the megacities (e.g. Tehran, Ankara, and Istanbul) exhibited anomalous increases in the intensity of daytime SUHI, which may exceed 2 °C. Statistical relationships were established to explore the association between changes in the mean intensity and the hotspot area in each metropolitan location during the lockdown. The findings indicate that the mean intensity of SUHI and the spatial extension of hotspot areas within each metropolitan had a statistically significant negative relationship, with Pearson's r values generally exceeding - 0.55, especially for daytime SUHI. This negative dependency was evident for both daytime and nighttime SUHI during all months of the lockdown. Our findings demonstrate that the decrease in primary pollutant levels during the lockdown contributed to the decrease in the intensity of nighttime SUHIs in the Middle East, especially in April and May. Changes in the characteristics of SUHIs during the lockdown period should be interpreted in the context of long-term climate change, rather than just the consequence of restrictive measures. This is simply because short-term air quality improvements were insufficient to generate meaningful changes in the region's urban climate.

Response of vegetation to drought time-scales across global land biomes.

We evaluated the response of the Earth land biomes to drought by correlating a drought index with three global indicators of vegetation activity and growth: vegetation indices from satellite imagery, tree-ring growth series, and Aboveground Net Primary Production (ANPP) records. Arid and humid biomes are both affected by drought, and we suggest that the persistence of the water deficit (i.e., the drought time-scale) could be playing a key role in determining the sensitivity of land biomes to drought. We found that arid biomes respond to drought at short time-scales; that is, there is a rapid vegetation reaction as soon as water deficits below normal conditions occur. This may be due to the fact that plant species of arid regions have mechanisms allowing them to rapidly adapt to changing water availability. Humid biomes also respond to drought at short time-scales, but in this case the physiological mechanisms likely differ from those operating in arid biomes, as plants usually have a poor adaptability to water shortage. On the contrary, semiarid and subhumid biomes respond to drought at long time-scales, probably because plants are able to withstand water deficits, but they lack the rapid response of arid biomes to drought. These results are consistent among three vegetation parameters analyzed and across different land biomes, showing that the response of vegetation to drought depends on characteristic drought time-scales for each biome. Understanding the dominant time-scales at which drought most influences vegetation might help assessing the resistance and resilience of vegetation and improving our knowledge of vegetation vulnerability to climate change.

The management of a large Mediterranean reservoir: storage regimens of the Yesa Reservoir, Upper Aragon River Basin, Central Spanish Pyrenees.

Agriculture in Mediterranean countries is mainly based upon the irrigation of productive areas in the lowlands. For this reason, it is necessary to store large volumes of water in reservoirs located in mountain headwaters. These reservoirs have a relatively simple regimen of storage, increasing the water stored during the wet season (from October until May) and reaching the maximum volume shortly before the beginning of the hot, very dry season, when the water is released. This paper considers the storage regimen (inflow and outflow) of the Yesa Reservoir in the Spanish Pyrenees as an example of management of a large reservoir in a mountain Mediterranean environment, subject to a strong interannual variability. On average, the highest water storage level is achieved by retaining the high flows of the Aragón River in autumn and spring. Nevertheless, the irregularity of rainfalls and the existence of changes in the hydrological regimen lead to changes in the patterns of reservoir filling. Two patterns were identified in the Yesa Reservoir: (1) a quick increase of the stored volume in autumn, a stabilization in winter, and a new increase in spring; and (2) a continuous increase from October until May. These patterns are distributed in time over different periods since the construction of the reservoir in 1959, demonstrating the adjustment of the reservoir management to changes in the hydrological regimen.

Assessing the effect of climate oscillations and land-use changes on streamflow in the central Spanish Pyrenees.

Plans to increase the amount of irrigated land in Mediterranean countries should consider how changes in climate and land-use affect water resources. In this study, both precipitation and temperature were used to analyze regional trends in discharge in the basins of the Central Spanish Pyrenees since the mid-20th century. Annual variations in the relationship between precipitation and discharge suggested that discharge was relatively lower in the second half of the study period, coinciding with major changes in land use. On a monthly scale, precipitation increased significantly in October, April, and July, and decreased in March, and temperature increased in January and February and decreased in April. Nevertheless, discharge has decreased significantly in most months in the past 50 years. Land-use and plant-cover changes are the only nonclimatic factor that can explain the loss of around 30% of the average annual discharge.