Effect of clonal testing on the efficiency of genomic evaluation in forest tree breeding.

Through stochastic simulations, accuracies of breeding values and response to selection were assessed under traditional pedigree-(BLUP) and genomic-based evaluation methods (GBLUP) in forest tree breeding. The latter provides a methodological foundation for genomic selection. We evaluated the impact of clonal replication in progeny testing on the response to selection realized in seed orchards under variable marker density and target effective population sizes. We found that clonal replication in progeny trials boosted selection accuracy, thus providing additional genetic gains under BLUP. While a similar trend was observed for GBLUP, however, the added gains did not surpass those under BLUP. Therefore, breeding programs deploying extensive progeny testing with clonal propagation might not benefit from the deployment of genomic information. These findings could be helpful in the context of operational breeding programs.

Positive assortative mating with family size as a function of predicted parental breeding values.

While other investigations have described benefits of positive assortative mating (PAM) for forest tree breeding, the allocation of resources among mates in these studies was either equal or varied, using schemes corresponding only to parental rank (i.e., more resources invested in higher-ranking parents). In this simulation study, family sizes were proportional to predicted midparent BLUP values. The distribution of midparent BLUP values was standardized by a constant, which was varied to study the range of distributions of family size. Redistributing progenies from lower- to higher-ranking families to a point where an equal number of progenies were still selected out of each family to the next generation caused minimal change in group coancestry and inbreeding in the breeding population (BP), while the additive genetic response and variance in the BP were both greatly enhanced. This generated additional genetic gains for forest plantations by selecting more superior genotypes from the BP (compared to PAM with equal family sizes) for production of improved regeneration materials. These conclusions were verified for a range of heritability under a polygenic model and under a mixed-inheritance model with a QTL contributing to the trait variation.

Open-nucleus breeding strategies compared with population-wide positive assortative mating: II. Unequal distribution of testing effort.

This study compares population-wide positive assortative mating (PAM) with open-nucleus breeding with an elite and main population when more effort is allocated to parents of the elite. A companion study showed that PAM is advantageous when testing effort is independent of parental value. In the present study,unbalanced testing was imposed by varying the number of crosses or the number of genotypes per cross. These unbalanced alternatives are compared with PAM, where the testing effort was varied so that better parents were mated more frequently. More effort allocated to parents of higher rank increased the additive effect and the additive variance and only slightly altered the group coancestry and inbreeding in the breeding population (BP) compared with completely balanced scenarios. Of particular interest to the breeder, large enhancement of the additive variance in the BP contributed to higher gains in the production population (PP). These simulations demonstrate that population-wide PAM leads to higher genetic gains compared with open-nucleus alternatives at any desired target level of diversity in the PP. This is true for both balanced (part I)and unbalanced distribution of testing effort (part II).

Open-nucleus breeding strategies compared with population-wide positive assortative mating: I. Equal distribution of testing efforts.

Positive assortative mating (PAM) can enhance the additive genetic variance in a breeding population(BP). This increases the potential for gains in the production population (PP, selected subset of the BP) for recurrent selection programs in forest trees. The assortment of mates can be either: (1) by individual tree rank across the whole BP (PAM), or (2) trees of similar rank can be merged into larger hierarchical groups and then mated randomly within group ("open"-nucleus breeding,NB). The objective of this study was to compare PAM and NB in quantitative terms. The NB simulation model assumed two tiers (nucleus, main) with unrestricted migration between the tiers. Clonal tests were used to predict breeding values and test resources per mate were kept constant for all mates. Both gain and diversity were combined into a single selection criterion, "group-merit selection." Alternatives were compared over five breeding cycles by considering genetic gain and diversity in a selected PP established in a seed orchard. The assortment of mates in both alternatives enhanced additive variance and increased the additive effect in the BP, leading to additional gain in the PP. Gains generated under PAM always exceeded gains under NB. Thus, the main message from this study is that PAM in both the short- and long-term results in more gain at any target level of diversity in the PP (the breeder's target) than is achieved by the NB alternative. The optimum size of the nucleus varies with the desired level of seed orchard diversity. At lower target diversity, smaller nucleus sizes are favorable, while larger sizes result in more gain when seed orchard diversity is considered more important.