Converting health risks into loss of life years - a paradigm shift in clinical risk communication.

For facilitating risk communication in clinical management, such a ratio-based measure becomes easier to understand if expressed as a loss of life expectancy. The cohort, consisting of 543,410 adults in Taiwan, was recruited between 1994 and 2008. Health risks included lifestyle, biomarkers, and chronic diseases. A total of 18,747 deaths were identified. The Chiang's life table method was used to estimate a loss of life expectancy. We used Cox regression to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for health risks. The increased mortality from cardio-metabolic risks such as high cholesterol (HR=1.10), hypertension (HR=1.48) or diabetes (HR=2.02) can be converted into a loss of 1.0, 4.4, and 8.9 years in life expectancy, respectively. The top 20 of the 30 risks were associated with a loss of 4 to 10 years of life expectancy, with 70% of the cohort having at least two such risk factors. Smoking, drinking, and physical inactivity each had 5-7 years loss. Individuals with diabetes or an elevated white count had a loss of 7-10 years, while prolonged sitting, the most prevalent risk factor, had a loss of 2-4 years. Those with diabetes (8.9 years) and proteinuria (9.1 years) present at the same time showed a loss of 16.2 years, a number close to the sum of each risk. Health risks, expressed as life expectancy loss, could facilitate risk communication. The paradigm shift in expressing risk intensity can help set public health priorities scientifically to promote a focus on the most important ones in primary care.

Loss of Life Expectancy by 10 Years or More From Elevated Aspartate Aminotransferase: Finding Aspartate Aminotransferase a Better Mortality Predictor for All-Cause and Liver-Related than Alanine Aminotransferase.

OBJECTIVES: Serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) are 2 commonly ordered liver function tests, and ALT has long been considered more liver-specific than AST. Between the 2, the one which is better in predicting liver or non-liver-related mortality remains unsettled. METHODS: The cohort, 416,122 adults, came from a self-paying comprehensive health surveillance program during 1994-2008 and was followed up till 2008. Mortality came from National Death Index, with 10,412 deaths identified. Hazard ratios (HRs), computed by Cox model, and life expectancy, by life table method, were presented for 5 levels of AST and ALT with elevated AST or ALT defined as ≥40 IU/L. Liver disease included liver cancer and other liver conditions. RESULTS: There were 3 times more elevated ALT (15.4%) than AST (5.7%). However, those with elevated AST had higher mortality for all-cause (HR = 2.44), for liver disease (HR = 27.2), and for liver cancer (HR = 47.6) than its ALT counterparts (HR = 1.69, 10.8, and 20.2, respectively). Elevated AST also lost more years of life expectancy (10.2) than those lost by ALT (5.2) and larger than most common risks. Elevated AST had increased mortality from all cancers (HR = 3.57), stroke (HR = 1.36), respiratory diseases (HR = 1.34), and injuries (HR = 1.82), other than just liver disease. All-cause mortality remained significantly increased, when high risk groups were excluded, such as frequent drinkers, hepatitis carriers, those died from nonmedical conditions, those died in the first 3 years, or advanced fibrosis index based on 4 factors or aspartate transaminase-to-platelet ratio index. Results were consistent between those returned for second visits and those analyzed in initial visits. DISCUSSION: Those with elevated AST (≥40 IU/L) had life expectancy cut short by 10.2 years, doubled the number of years lost with elevated ALT. For all-cause and for liver-related mortality, AST was an important predictor, better than ALT.

Diabetes with early kidney involvement may shorten life expectancy by 16 years.

This study aimed to identify the excess risks associated with diabetic patients with early kidney involvement (early diabetic kidney disease). The mortality risks of early diabetic kidney disease, defined as diabetes in early stages 1-3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), were assessed from a cohort of 512,700 adults in Taiwan participating in a health surveillance program from 1994-2008. Three related groups were identified and compared: diabetes without CKD, early diabetic kidney disease, and early CKD without diabetes. Deaths were ascertained through the National Death Registry. One-third of diabetics had early kidney disease, and approximately two-thirds of patients were classified with early CKD due to proteinuria. Patients with early diabetic kidney disease had more lifestyle risks such as inactivity or obesity, which characteristically amplified excess mortality by up to five times. The three-fold increase in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 3.16) and a 16-year loss in life expectancy made early diabetic kidney disease a serious and yet often overlooked disease, with most patients unaware of their kidney involvement. Mortality for early diabetic kidney disease was nearly twice as high as that for early CKD (hazard ratio 2.01) or diabetes without CKD (hazard ratio 1.79). The 16-year life span loss is much worse than individually from early CKD (six years) or diabetes (ten years). Thus, identifying early proteinuria among diabetic patients and realizing the importance of reducing lifestyle risks like inactivity is a clinical challenge, but can save lives.

The Role of Physical Activity in Harm Reduction among Betel Quid Chewers from a Prospective Cohort of 419,378 Individuals.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the benefits of regular exercise in reducing harms associated with betel quid (BQ) chewing. METHODS: The study cohort, 419,378 individuals, participated in a medical screening program between 1994 and 2008, with 38,324 male and 1,495 female chewers, who consumed 5-15 quids of BQ a day. Physical activity of each individual, based on "MET-hour/week", was classified as "inactive" or "active", where activity started from a daily 15 minutes/day or more of brisk walking (≥3.75 MET-hour/week). Hazard ratios for mortality and remaining years in life expectancy were calculated. RESULTS: Nearly one fifth (18.7%) of men, but only 0.7% of women were chewers. Chewers had a 10-fold increase in oral cancer risk; and a 2-3-fold increase in mortality from lung, esophagus and liver cancer, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes, with doubling of all-cause mortality. More than half of chewers were physically inactive (59%). Physical activity was beneficial for chewers, with a reduction of all-cause mortality by 19%. Inactive chewers had their lifespan shortened by 6.3 years, compared to non-chewers, but being active, chewers improved their health by gaining 2.5 years. The improvement, however, fell short of offsetting the harms from chewing. CONCLUSIONS: Chewers had serious health consequences, but being physically active, chewers could mitigate some of these adverse effects, and extend life expectancy by 2.5 years and reduce mortality by one fifth. Encouraging exercise, in addition to quitting chewing, remains the best advice for 1.5 million chewers in Taiwan.