RESUMO
OBJETIVO: Os idosos constituem uma população com características próprias e freqüentes admissões em unidades de terapia intensiva. O presente estudo teve por objetivo avaliar a capacidade de predizer a sobrevida desses pacientes através dos índices APACHE II, UNICAMP II, SAPS II e SAPS 3 equações global e América Central/Sul. MÉTODOS: Foram incluídos pacientes idosos admitidos no período de 01/01/2006 a 31/12/2006, definidos como idade > 60 anos. Foram excluídos aqueles reinternados. Nos pacientes restantes, analisou-se a taxa de letalidade padronizada, a calibração e a discriminação para cada índice. O evento avaliado foi óbito ou alta hospitalar. RESULTADOS: Foram admitidos na UTI 386pacientesidosos,sendo36excluidospor reinternações, restando 350 para análise. A taxa de letalidade padronizada aproximouse da unidade em todos os índices, exceto no SAPS II (TLP=1,5455) que subestimou a letalidade. A calibração, por meio dos testes de Hosmer-Lemeshow, foi inadequada (p < 0,05), exceto para o UNICAMP II (p > 0,5). Na curva de calibração, os modelos se afastaram da linha ideal. Todos mostraram excelente discriminação por meio da área sob curva recebedora das características dos operadores ( > 0,8). CONCLUSÕES: Na população estudada, os modelos apresentaram excelente discriminação e calibração inadequada. O SAPS II subestimou a letalidade.
OBJECTIVE: The elderly constitute a population with their own features and frequent admissions in intensive care units. This study has the objective to evaluate the ability to predict the survival of these patients through the APACHE II, UNICAMP II, SAPS II and SAPS 3 indexes, global and Central America/South equations. METHODS: Elderly patients admitted from 01/01/2006 to 12/3/2006, defined as age > 60 years, were included in this study. Those who were readmitted were excluded. The rate of lethality standardized, calibration and discrimination for each index in the remaining patients were analysed. The outcome were death or hospital discharge. RESULTS: Three hundred eighty six elderly patients were included in this study, being 36 excluded by readmission, remaining 350 for analysis. The rate of lethality standardized came near to the unit in all indexes, except the SAPS II (TLP=1.5455) which underestimated the lethality. The calibration, via Hosmer-Lemeshow tests was inadequate (p < 0.05), except for the UNICAMP II (p > 0.5). On the calibration curve, the models have distanced themselves from the pattern line. All of them presented an excellent discrimination via receiver operating characteristics curves (> 0.8). CONCLUSIONS: In the studied population, the models presented an excellent discrimination and inadequate calibration. SAPS II underestimated the lethality.
RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: The elderly constitute a population with their own features and frequent admissions in intensive care units. This study has the objective to evaluate the ability to predict the survival of these patients through the APACHE II, UNICAMP II, SAPS II and SAPS 3 indexes, global and Central America/South equations. METHODS: Elderly patients admitted from 01/01/2006 to 12/3/2006, defined as age > 60 years, were included in this study. Those who were readmitted were excluded. The rate of lethality standardized, calibration and discrimination for each index in the remaining patients were analysed. The outcome were death or hospital discharge. RESULTS: Three hundred eighty six elderly patients were included in this study, being 36 excluded by readmission, remaining 350 for analysis. The rate of lethality standardized came near to the unit in all indexes, except the SAPS II (TLP=1.5455) which underestimated the lethality. The calibration, via Hosmer-Lemeshow tests was inadequate (p < 0.05), except for the UNICAMP II (p > 0.5). On the calibration curve, the models have distanced themselves from the pattern line. All of them presented an excellent discrimination via receiver operating characteristics curves (> 0.8). CONCLUSIONS: In the studied population, the models presented an excellent discrimination and inadequate calibration. SAPS II underestimated the lethality.
