Wolves Recolonizing Islands: Genetic Consequences and Implications for Conservation and Management.

After a long and deliberate persecution, the grey wolf (Canis lupus) is slowly recolonizing its former areas in Europe, and the genetic consequences of this process are of particular interest. Wolves, though present in mainland Estonia for a long time, have only recently started to recolonize the country's two largest islands, Saaremaa and Hiiumaa. The main objective of this study was to analyse wolf population structure and processes in Estonia, with particular attention to the recolonization of islands. Fifteen microsatellite loci were genotyped for 185 individuals across Estonia. As a methodological novelty, all putative wolf-dog hybrids were identified and removed (n = 17) from the dataset beforehand to avoid interference of dog alleles in wolf population analysis. After the preliminary filtering, our final dataset comprised of 168 "pure" wolves. We recommend using hybrid-removal step as a standard precautionary procedure not only for wolf population studies, but also for other taxa prone to hybridization. STRUCTURE indicated four genetic groups in Estonia. Spatially explicit DResD analysis identified two areas, one of them on Saaremaa island and the other in southwestern Estonia, where neighbouring individuals were genetically more similar than expected from an isolation-by-distance null model. Three blending areas and two contrasting transition zones were identified in central Estonia, where the sampled individuals exhibited strong local differentiation over relatively short distance. Wolves on the largest Estonian islands are part of human-wildlife conflict due to livestock depredation. Negative public attitude, especially on Saaremaa where sheep herding is widespread, poses a significant threat for island wolves. To maintain the long-term viability of the wolf population on Estonian islands, not only wolf hunting quota should be targeted with extreme care, but effective measures should be applied to avoid inbreeding and minimize conflicts with local communities and stakeholders.

A European Concern? Genetic Structure and Expansion of Golden Jackals (Canis aureus) in Europe and the Caucasus.

In the first continent-wide study of the golden jackal (Canis aureus), we characterised its population genetic structure and attempted to identify the origin of European populations. This provided a unique insight into genetic characteristics of a native carnivore population with rapid large-scale expansion. We analysed 15 microsatellite markers and a 406 base-pair fragment of the mitochondrial control region. Bayesian-based and principal components methods were applied to evaluate whether the geographical grouping of samples corresponded with genetic groups. Our analysis revealed low levels of genetic diversity, reflecting the unique history of the golden jackal among Europe's native carnivores. The results suggest ongoing gene flow between south-eastern Europe and the Caucasus, with both contributing to the Baltic population, which appeared only recently. The population from the Peloponnese Peninsula in southern Greece forms a common genetic cluster with samples from south-eastern Europe (ΔK approach in STRUCTURE, Principal Components Analysis [PCA]), although the results based on BAPS and the estimated likelihood in STRUCTURE indicate that Peloponnesian jackals may represent a distinct population. Moreover, analyses of population structure also suggest either genetic distinctiveness of the island population from Samos near the coast of Asia Minor (BAPS, most STRUCTURE, PCA), or possibly its connection with the Caucasus population (one analysis in STRUCTURE). We speculate from our results that ancient Mediterranean jackal populations have persisted to the present day, and have merged with jackals colonising from Asia. These data also suggest that new populations of the golden jackal may be founded by long-distance dispersal, and thus should not be treated as an invasive alien species, i.e. an organism that is "non-native to an ecosystem, and which may cause economic or environmental harm or adversely affect human health". These insights into the genetic structure and ancestry of Baltic jackals have important implications for management and conservation of jackals in Europe. The golden jackal is listed as an Annex V species in the EU Habitats Directive and as such, considering also the results presented here, should be legally protected in all EU member states.

Recovery of large carnivores in Europe's modern human-dominated landscapes.

The conservation of large carnivores is a formidable challenge for biodiversity conservation. Using a data set on the past and current status of brown bears (Ursus arctos), Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), gray wolves (Canis lupus), and wolverines (Gulo gulo) in European countries, we show that roughly one-third of mainland Europe hosts at least one large carnivore species, with stable or increasing abundance in most cases in 21st-century records. The reasons for this overall conservation success include protective legislation, supportive public opinion, and a variety of practices making coexistence between large carnivores and people possible. The European situation reveals that large carnivores and people can share the same landscape.

Long-range gene flow and the effects of climatic and ecological factors on genetic structuring in a large, solitary carnivore: the Eurasian lynx.

Due to their high mobility, large terrestrial predators are potentially capable of maintaining high connectivity, and therefore low genetic differentiation among populations. However, previous molecular studies have provided contradictory findings in relation to this. To elucidate patterns of genetic structure in large carnivores, we studied the genetic variability of the Eurasian lynx, Lynx lynx throughout north-eastern Europe using microsatellite, mitochondrial DNA control region and Y chromosome-linked markers. Using SAMOVA we found analogous patterns of genetic structure based on both mtDNA and microsatellites, which coincided with a relatively little evidence for male-biased dispersal. No polymorphism for the cytochrome b and ATP6 mtDNA genes and Y chromosome-linked markers were found. Lynx inhabiting a large area encompassing Finland, the Baltic countries and western Russia formed a single genetic unit, while some marginal populations were clearly divergent from others. The existence of a migration corridor was suggested to correspond with distribution of continuous forest cover. The lowest variability (in both markers) was found in lynx from Norway and Bialowieza Primeval Forest (BPF), which coincided with a recent demographic bottleneck (Norway) or high habitat fragmentation (BPF). The Carpathian population, being monomorphic for the control region, showed relatively high microsatellite diversity, suggesting the effect of a past bottleneck (e.g. during Last Glacial Maximum) on its present genetic composition. Genetic structuring for the mtDNA control region was best explained by latitude and snow cover depth. Microsatellite structuring correlated with the lynx's main prey, especially the proportion of red deer (Cervus elaphus) in its diet. Eurasian lynx are capable of maintaining panmictic populations across eastern Europe unless they are severely limited by habitat continuity or a reduction in numbers. Different correlations of mtDNA and microsatellite population divergence patterns with climatic and ecological factors may suggest separate selective pressures acting on males and females in this solitary carnivore.

Spatial genetic analyses reveal cryptic population structure and migration patterns in a continuously harvested grey wolf (Canis lupus) population in north-eastern Europe.

Spatial genetics is a relatively new field in wildlife and conservation biology that is becoming an essential tool for unravelling the complexities of animal population processes, and for designing effective strategies for conservation and management. Conceptual and methodological developments in this field are therefore critical. Here we present two novel methodological approaches that further the analytical possibilities of STRUCTURE and DResD. Using these approaches we analyse structure and migrations in a grey wolf (Canislupus) population in north-eastern Europe. We genotyped 16 microsatellite loci in 166 individuals sampled from the wolf population in Estonia and Latvia that has been under strong and continuous hunting pressure for decades. Our analysis demonstrated that this relatively small wolf population is represented by four genetic groups. We also used a novel methodological approach that uses linear interpolation to statistically test the spatial separation of genetic groups. The new method, which is capable of using program STRUCTURE output, can be applied widely in population genetics to reveal both core areas and areas of low significance for genetic groups. We also used a recently developed spatially explicit individual-based method DResD, and applied it for the first time to microsatellite data, revealing a migration corridor and barriers, and several contact zones.

Implementation uncertainty when using recreational hunting to manage carnivores.

1. Wildlife managers often rely on resource users, such as recreational or commercial hunters, to achieve management goals. The use of hunters to control wildlife populations is especially common for predators and ungulates, but managers cannot assume that hunters will always fill annual quotas set by the authorities. It has been advocated that resource management models should account for uncertainty in how harvest rules are realized, requiring that this implementation uncertainty be estimated.2. We used a survival analysis framework and long-term harvest data from large carnivore management systems in three countries (Estonia, Latvia and Norway) involving four species (brown bear, grey wolf, Eurasian lynx and wolverine) to estimate the performance of hunters with respect to harvest goals set by managers.3. Variation in hunter quota-filling performance was substantial, ranging from 40% for wolverine in Norway to nearly 100% for lynx in Latvia. Seasonal and regional variation was also high within country-species pairs. We detected a positive relationship between the instantaneous potential to fill a quota slot and the relative availability of the target species for both wolverine and lynx in Norway.4. Survivor curves and hazards - with survival time measured as the time from the start of a season until a quota slot is filled - can indicate the extent to which managers can influence harvest through adjustments of season duration and quota limits.5.Synthesis and applications. We investigated seven systems where authorities use recreational hunting to manage large carnivore populations. The variation and magnitude of deviation from harvest goals was substantial, underlining the need to incorporate implementation uncertainty into resource management models and decisions-making. We illustrate how survival analysis can be used by managers to estimate the performance of resource users with respect to achieving harvest goals set by managers. The findings in this study come at an opportune time given the growing popularity of management strategy evaluation (MSE) models in fisheries and a push towards incorporating MSE into terrestrial harvest management.

Bucking the trend in wolf-dog hybridization: first evidence from europe of hybridization between female dogs and male wolves.

Studies on hybridization have proved critical for understanding key evolutionary processes such as speciation and adaptation. However, from the perspective of conservation, hybridization poses a concern, as it can threaten the integrity and fitness of many wild species, including canids. As a result of habitat fragmentation and extensive hunting pressure, gray wolf (Canis lupus) populations have declined dramatically in Europe and elsewhere during recent centuries. Small and fragmented populations have persisted, but often only in the presence of large numbers of dogs, which increase the potential for hybridization and introgression to deleteriously affect wolf populations. Here, we demonstrate hybridization between wolf and dog populations in Estonia and Latvia, and the role of both genders in the hybridization process, using combined analysis of maternal, paternal and biparental genetic markers. Eight animals exhibiting unusual external characteristics for wolves - six from Estonia and two from Latvia - proved to be wolf-dog hybrids. However, one of the hybridization events was extraordinary. Previous field observations and genetic studies have indicated that mating between wolves and dogs is sexually asymmetrical, occurring predominantly between female wolves and male dogs. While this was also the case among the Estonian hybrids, our data revealed the existence of dog mitochondrial genomes in the Latvian hybrids and, together with Y chromosome and autosomal microsatellite data, thus provided the first evidence from Europe of mating between male wolves and female dogs. We discuss patterns of sexual asymmetry in wolf-dog hybridization.

Sudden expansion of a single brown bear maternal lineage across northern continental Eurasia after the last ice age: a general demographic model for mammals?

The brown bear has proved a useful model for studying Late Quaternary mammalian phylogeography. However, information is lacking from northern continental Eurasia, which constitutes a large part of the species' current distribution. We analysed mitochondrial DNA sequences (totalling 1943 bp) from 205 bears from northeast Europe and Russia in order to characterize the maternal phylogeography of bears in this region. We also estimated the formation times of the sampled brown bear lineages and those of its extinct relative, the cave bear. Four closely related haplogroups belonging to a single mitochondrial subclade were identified in northern continental Eurasia. Several haplotypes were found throughout the whole study area, while one haplogroup was restricted to Kamchatka. The haplotype network, estimated divergence times and various statistical tests indicated that bears in northern continental Eurasia recently underwent a sudden expansion, preceded by a severe bottleneck. This brown bear population was therefore most likely founded by a small number of bears that were restricted to a single refuge area during the last glacial maximum. This pattern has been described previously for other mammal species and as such may represent one general model for the phylogeography of Eurasian mammals. Bayesian divergence time estimates are presented for different brown and cave bear clades. Moreover, our results demonstrate the extent of substitution rate variation occurring throughout the phylogenetic tree, highlighting the need for appropriate calibration when estimating divergence times.

Mitogenetic structure of brown bears (Ursus arctos L.) in northeastern Europe and a new time frame for the formation of European brown bear lineages.

We estimated the phylogenetic relationships of brown bear maternal haplotypes from countries of northeastern Europe (Estonia, Finland and European Russia), using sequences of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region of 231 bears. Twenty-five mtDNA haplotypes were identified. The brown bear population in northeastern Europe can be divided into three haplogroups: one with bears from all three countries, one with bears from Finland and Russia, and the third composed almost exclusively of bears from European Russia. Four haplotypes from Finland and European Russia matched exactly with haplotypes from Slovakia, suggesting the significance of the current territory of Slovakia in ancient demographic processes of brown bears. Based on the results of this study and those from the recent literature, we hypothesize that the West Carpathian Mountains have served either as one of the northernmost refuge areas or as an important movement corridor for brown bears of the Eastern lineage towards northern Europe during or after the last ice age. Bayesian analyses were performed to investigate the temporal framework of brown bear lineages in Europe. The molecular clock was calibrated using Beringian brown bear sequences derived from radiocarbon-dated ancient samples, and the estimated mutation rate was 29.8% (13.3%-47.6%) per million years. The whole European population and Western and Eastern lineages formed about 175,000, 70,000 and 25,000 years before present, respectively. Our approach to estimating the time frame of brown bear evolution demonstrates the importance of using an appropriate mutation rate, and this has implications for other studies of Pleistocene populations.