Association of sociocultural stressors with bipolar disorder onset in Puerto Rican youth growing up as members of a minoritized ethnic group: results from the Boricua Youth Longitudinal Study.

Background: The development of bipolar disorder is currently explained by a complex interaction of genetic and environmental factors. Less is known regarding the influence of sociocultural factors. This study aims to evaluate the incidence and impact of sociocultural factors on bipolar disorder onset in two comparable samples of youth growing up in different social settings. Methods: We leveraged data from two urban population-based cohorts representative of Puerto Rican children growing up in either San Juan (Puerto Rico) or the South Bronx (NYC) and followed up for 17 years. Bipolar disorder diagnoses were based on retrospective self-reports on the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview. We used a causal inference approach to estimate associations of sociocultural factors with bipolar disorder onset after adjusting for potential confounders. Findings: We found that South Bronx children, who grew up as a minoritized group, had twice the risk of bipolar disorder onset as young adults, with an incidence rate of 2.22 new cases per 1000 person-years compared to 1.08 new cases in San Juan (incidence rate difference, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.09-1.20). After adjusting for potential confounders, South Bronx children had the same lifetime hazard of bipolar disorder onset compared to San Juan children. However, our analysis demonstrated that caregivers' exposure to societal cultural stress partially explained the increased risk of bipolar disorder onset in the South Bronx, in addition to the potential contribution of genetics. Interpretation: Our results provide evidence that societal cultural stress can increase the risk of lifetime bipolar disorder onset in youth growing up as a minoritized group. Addressing stress in minoritized groups might reduce the risk of bipolar disorder onset. Funding: The Boricua Youth Study has been supported by the National Institutes of HealthMH56401, MH098374, DA033172, and AA020191. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the article.

A nowcasting framework for correcting for reporting delays in malaria surveillance.

Time lags in reporting to national surveillance systems represent a major barrier for the control of infectious diseases, preventing timely decision making and resource allocation. This issue is particularly acute for infectious diseases like malaria, which often impact rural and remote communities the hardest. In Guyana, a country located in South America, poor connectivity among remote malaria-endemic regions hampers surveillance efforts, making reporting delays a key challenge for elimination. Here, we analyze 13 years of malaria surveillance data, identifying key correlates of time lags between clinical cases occurring and being added to the central data system. We develop nowcasting methods that use historical patterns of reporting delays to estimate occurred-but-not-reported monthly malaria cases. To assess their performance, we implemented them retrospectively, using only information that would have been available at the time of estimation, and found that they substantially enhanced the estimates of malaria cases. Specifically, we found that the best performing models achieved up to two-fold improvements in accuracy (or error reduction) over known cases in selected regions. Our approach provides a simple, generalizable tool to improve malaria surveillance in endemic countries and is currently being implemented to help guide existing resource allocation and elimination efforts.