Dominant tree species are at risk from exaggerated drought under climate change.

Predicting the consequences of climate change on forest systems is difficult because trees may display species-specific responses to exaggerated droughts that may not be reflected by the climatic envelope of their geographic range. Furthermore, few studies have examined the postdrought recovery potential of drought-susceptible tree species. This study develops a robust ranking of the drought susceptibility of 21 tree species based on their mortality after two droughts (1990s and 2000s) in the savanna of north-eastern Australia. Drought-induced mortality was positively related to species dominance, negatively related to the ratio of postdrought seedlings to adults and had no relationship to the magnitude of extreme drought within the species current geographic ranges. These results suggest that predicting the consequences of exaggerated drought on species' geographic ranges is difficult, but that dominant species like Eucalyptus with relatively slow rates of population recovery and dispersal are the most susceptible. The implications for savanna ecosystems are lower tree densities and basal area.

A grass-fire cycle eliminates an obligate-seeding tree in a tropical savanna.

A grass-fire cycle in Australian tropical savannas has been postulated as driving the regional decline of the obligate-seeding conifer Callitris intratropica and other fire-sensitive components of the regional flora and fauna, due to proliferation of flammable native grasses. We tested the hypothesis that a high-biomass invasive savanna grass drives a positive feedback process where intense fires destroy fire-sensitive trees, and the reduction in canopy cover facilitates further invasion by grass. We undertook an observational and experimental study using, as a model system, a plantation of C. intratropica that has been invaded by an African grass, gamba (Andropogon gayanus) in the Northern Territory, Australia. We found that high grass biomass was associated with reduced canopy cover and restriction of foliage to the upper canopy of surviving stems, and mortality of adult trees was very high (>50%) even in areas with low fuel loads (1 t·ha(-1)). Experimental fires, with fuel loads >10 t·ha(-1), typical of the grass-invasion front, caused significant mortality due to complete crown scorch. Lower fuel loads cause reduced canopy cover through defoliation of the lower canopy. These results help explain how increases in grass biomass are coupled with the decline of C. intratropica throughout northern Australia by causing a switch from litter and sparse perennial grass fuels, and hence low-intensity surface fires, to heavy annual grass fuel loads that sustain fires that burn into the midstorey. This study demonstrates that changes in fuel type can alter fire regimes with substantial knock-on effects on the biota.