Overlap between child protection services and the youth justice system: protocol for a retrospective population-based cohort study using linked administrative data in Manitoba, Canada.

INTRODUCTION: Children who have a history of involvement in child protection services (CPS) are over-represented in the youth and adult criminal justice systems. There are significant health and socioeconomic implications for individuals involved in either or both CPS and the justice system. Understanding the 'overlap' between these two systems would provide insight into the health and social needs of this population. This protocol describes a research programme on the relationship between the child welfare and the youth justice systems, looking specifically at the population involved in both CPS and the youth justice system. We will examine the characteristics associated with involvement in these systems, justice system trajectories of individuals with a history of CPS involvement and early adult outcomes of children involved in both systems. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Administrative data sets will be linked at the individual level for three cohorts born 1991, 1994 and 1998 in Manitoba, Canada. Involvement in CPS will be categorised as 'placed in out-of-home care', 'received in-home services, but was not placed in care' or 'no involvement'. Involvement in the youth justice system will be examined through contacts with police between ages 12 and 17 that either led to charges or did not proceed. Individual, maternal and neighbourhood characteristics will be examined to identify individuals at greatest risk of involvement in one or both systems. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by the University of Manitoba Health Research Ethics Board and permission to access data sets has been granted by all data providers. We also received approval for the study from the First Nations Health and Social Secretariat of Manitoba's Health Information Research Governance Committee and the Manitoba Metis Federation. Strategies to disseminate study results will include engagement of stakeholders and policymakers through meetings and workshops, scientific publications and presentations, and social media.

The Intersection between Criminal Accusations, Victimization, and Mental Disorders: A Canadian Population-Based Study.

OBJECTIVE: Understand the relationship between criminal accusations, victimization, and mental disorders at a population level using administrative data from Manitoba, Canada. METHOD: Residents aged 18 to 64 between April 1, 2007, and March 31, 2012 (N = 793,024) with hospital- and physician-diagnosed mental disorders were compared to those without. Overall and per-person rates of criminal accusations and reported victimization in the 2011/2012 fiscal year were examined. Relative risks were calculated, adjusting for age, sex, income, and presence of a substance use disorder. The overlap between diagnosed mental disorders, accusations, and victimization with a χ2 test of independence was studied. RESULTS: Twenty-four percent (n = 188,693) of the population had a mental disorder over the 5-year time frame. Four to fifteen percent of those with a mental disorder had a criminal accusation, compared to 2.4% of the referent group. Individuals with mental disorders, especially psychotic or personality disorders, were often living in low-income, urban neighborhoods. The adjusted relative risk of accusations and victimization remained 2 to 5 times higher in those with mental disorders compared to the referent group. Criminal accusations and victimization were most prevalent among individuals with a history of attempted suicide (15.2% had an accusation and 8.1% were victims). The risk of victimization in the same year as a criminal accusation was significantly increased among those with mental disorders compared to those without (χ2 = 211.8, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with mental disorders are at elevated risk of both criminal involvement and victimization. The identification of these multiply-stigmatized individuals may lead to better intervention and support.

Prevalence of mental disorders among all justice-involved: A population-level study in Canada.

More than 10 million people are imprisoned around the world, with many more who encounter the justice system. However, most studies examining the mental health burden in the justice system have examined only incarcerated individuals, with few looking at both criminal offending and victimization at the population-level. This study aimed to describe the population-level prevalence of mental disorders among the entirety of justice-involved individuals in a Canadian sample. The study was conducted using linked health and justice administrative data for all residents of Manitoba, Canada ages 18-64 between April 1, 2007 and March 31, 2012. All justice involvement (crime accusations and victimizations) and inpatient and outpatient mental disorder diagnoses (mood/anxiety, substance use, psychotic, personality disorders and suicidal behavior) were retrieved. Five-year age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of mental disorders and suicidal behaviour among those with any crime accusation and any victimization were compared to the general population of Manitoba. The study found that age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of any mental disorder was significantly higher among both adults accused of a crime and those victimized (38.9% and 38.6%, respectively) compared to the general population (26.1%). Rate ratios for specific mental disorders and suicidal behaviour were 1.4-3.6 among those accused of a crime, and 1.4-3.7 among those who were victims, compared to the general population. These findings highlight the need for urgent and expanded attention to this intersection of vulnerability. Victimization is especially an area of justice-related health that requires more attention.

Risk and associated factors for a future schizophrenia diagnosis after an index diagnosis of unspecified psychotic disorder: A population-based study.

A significant minority of unspecified psychosis presentations progress to schizophrenia. Clinical risk factors can inform targeted referral to specialized treatment programs, but few population studies have examined this. In this study, we used health administrative data for a population-based cohort from Manitoba, Canada to characterize the risk and identify vulnerable subgroups for a future diagnosis of schizophrenia after a diagnosis of unspecified psychotic disorder. Individuals aged 13-60 years with an inpatient or outpatient diagnosis of unspecified psychotic disorder between April 1, 2007 and March 31, 2012, and without any prior diagnosis of schizophrenia or related disorder, were identified (N = 3, 289). The primary outcome was a diagnosis of schizophrenia recorded after the index diagnosis of unspecified psychotic disorder and before March 31, 2015. Adjusted hazard ratios were computed controlling for age, sex, urbanicity, income, prior diagnosis of unspecified psychotic disorder, provider making the diagnosis, prior 12-month psychiatric hospitalization, and prior 12-month diagnoses of mood, anxiety, substance use, or personality disorders, and substance-induced psychosis. A classification tree identified vulnerable subgroups. The cumulative risk of a future diagnosis of schizophrenia was 26% during the follow-up period (mean 4.5 years), with a mean time to diagnosis of 2.0 years. The most vulnerable subgroup was diagnosed by a psychiatrist, younger than 27 years, without a mood or anxiety disorder, male, and residing in a low-income neighborhood; the rate of a subsequent schizophrenia diagnosis was 61.2%. These results support that identification of specific sociodemographic and clinical factors can help clinicians counsel and intervene with those at highest risk.

Mental Disorders and Suicide Attempts in the Pregnancy and Postpartum Periods Compared with Non-Pregnancy: A Population-Based Study.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the rate of mental disorders (i.e., mood and anxiety, substance use, psychotic disorders) and suicide attempts within the same group of women across the pre-pregnancy, pregnancy, and postpartum periods, and between this perinatal cohort and a non-perinatal reference group. METHOD: Data were from an administrative repository of residents in Manitoba, Canada. The perinatal cohort consisted of women aged 18 to 45 years who experienced >1 live birth pregnancy between 2011 and 2014 (n = 45,362). Pre-pregnancy, pregnancy, and postpartum periods were defined over consecutive 40-week intervals. The non-perinatal cohort consisted of age-matched women with no pregnancies during the same period (n = 139,705). A reference 40-week interval was defined from the individual's birthdate in the year they entered the cohort. Rate ratios of diagnosed mental disorders were adjusted (aRR) for demographic factors, parity, and mental health history. RESULTS: Within the perinatal cohort, pregnancy was associated with a lower rate of diagnosed mood or anxiety disorder, substance use disorder, and suicide attempt relative to pre-pregnancy (aRR range, 0.22-0.82). Pregnancy also had lower rates of all outcomes compared with the postpartum period (aRR, 0.44-0.87). Postpartum had a higher rate of psychotic disorder compared with pre-pregnancy (aRR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.17-2.21), but a lower rate of mood or anxiety disorder and suicide attempt. Compared with non-perinatal women, pregnancy was associated with lower rates of all outcomes (aRR range, 0.25-0.87). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with a non-perinatal period, the rate of a diagnosed mental disorder is lower during pregnancy but begins to rise in the postpartum period, highlighting an important period for early identification and rapid access to intervention.

Health, Social, Education, and Justice Outcomes of Manitoba First Nations Children Diagnosed with Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder: A Population-Based Cohort Study of Linked Administrative Data.

OBJECTIVE: To examine health services, social services, education, and justice system outcomes among First Nations children and youth with fetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD). METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, health and social services, education, and justice data were linked with clinical records on First Nations (FN) individuals aged 1 to 25 and diagnosed with FASD between 1999 and 2010 (n = 743). We compared the FN FASD group to non-FN individuals with FASD (non-FN FASD; n = 315) and to First Nations individuals (matched on age, sex, and income) not diagnosed with FASD (FN non-FASD; n = 2229). Rates and relative risks (RRs) were calculated using generalized linear models. RESULTS: FN FASD individuals had similar health services use to non-FN FASD individuals but had greater involvement with child welfare (RR, 1.20; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02 to 1.41) and the justice system (RR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.74) and were more likely to be charged with a crime (RR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.86). There were no suicides/suicide attempts among the non-FN FASD individuals during the study, but the crude rate/100 person-years of suicides among FN FASD individuals (0.22 for females; 1.06 for males) was substantially higher than for FN non-FASD individuals (0.08 for females; 0.32 for males). There were no significant differences between groups in the education outcomes we measured. CONCLUSIONS: Young people with FASD are at risk for poor health, education, and social outcomes, but First Nations young people with FASD face comparably higher risks, particularly with child welfare and justice system involvement. The study emphasizes a critical need for appropriate resources for First Nations children with FASD.

Use of health, education, and social services by individuals with fetal alcohol spectrum disorder.

BACKGROUND: Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) is the leading cause of intellectual disability in western society, presenting a significant burden on health, education and social services. Quantifying the burden of FASD is important for service planning and policy and program development. OBJECTIVE: To describe the health, education and social service use of individuals with FASD to provide an indication of the burden of service use of the disorder. METHODS: Using a matched-cohort design health, education and social service data were linked with clinical records on individuals 6+ years diagnosed with FASD between 1999/2000-2009/10 (N=717). Matching was 2:1 with a general population (gPop) and asthma group by age, sex and area-level income. Adjusted rates and relative risks were calculated using Generalized Linear Models. RESULTS: Hospitalizations were higher in the FASD compared to gPop (adjusted relative risk=3.44 (95% confidence interval=2.29, 5.17)) and asthma (2.87 (1.94, 4.25)) groups, whereas for physician visits and overall prescriptions, the FASD group differed from only the gPop group (1.58 (1.34, 1.84); 1.44 (1.22, 1.72), respectively). Antibiotics, pain killers and anti-psychotics were similar across groups whereas antidepressants and psychostimulants were higher in the FASD group (antidepressants: FASD vs. gPop 8.76 (2.82, 27.21); FASD vs. asthma 2.10 (1.15, 3.83); psychostimulants: FASD vs. gPop 5.78 (2.89, 11.57); FASD vs. asthma 2.47 (1.37, 4.47)). Attention-deficit\hyperactivity disorder was higher in the FASD than the gPop and asthma groups (6.41 (3.29, 12.49); 3.12 (1.97, 4.93), respectively). Education and social service use was higher for the FASD than either of the other groups for all measures (FASD vs. gPop and FASD vs. asthma, respectively for: grade repetition 3.06 (1.58, 5.94); 3.48 (1.79, 6.78); receipt of any special education funding 9.22 (6.23, 13.64); 6.10 (4.14, 8.99); family receipt of income assistance 1.74 (1.33, 2.27); 1.89 (1.45, 2.47); child in care 13.19 (5.84, 29.78);10.70 (4.80, 23.88); and receipt of child welfare services 5.70 (4.21, 7.71); 4.94 (3.67, 6.66)). CONCLUSION: The health, education and social service utilization burden of individuals with FASD is substantial, greater than that of individuals in the general population and with chronic illness (i.e., asthma). The findings highlight the need for multisystem supports for those with FASD, and comprehensive prevention programs.

Admission to hospital for pneumonia and influenza attributable to 2009 pandemic A/H1N1 influenza in First Nations communities in three provinces of Canada.

BACKGROUND: Early reports of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic (pH1N1) indicated that a disproportionate burden of illness fell on First Nations reserve communities. In addition, the impact of the pandemic on different communities may have been influenced by differing provincial policies. We compared hospitalization rates for pneumonia and influenza (P&I) attributable to pH1N1 influenza between residents of First Nations reserve communities and the general population in three Canadian provinces. METHODS: Hospital admissions were geocoded using administrative claims data from three Canadian provincial data centres to identify residents of First Nations communities. Hospitalizations for P&I during both waves of pH1N1 were compared to the same time periods for the four previous years to establish pH1N1-attributable rates. RESULTS: Residents of First Nations communities were more likely than other residents to have a pH1N1-attributable P&I hospitalization (rate ratio [RR] 2.8-9.1). Hospitalization rates for P&I were also elevated during the baseline period (RR 1.5-2.1) compared to the general population. There was an average increase of 45% over the baseline in P&I admissions for First Nations in all 3 provinces. In contrast, admissions overall increased by approximately 10% or less in British Columbia and Manitoba and by 33% in Ontario. Subgroup analysis showed no additional risk for remote or isolated First Nations compared to other First Nations communities in Ontario or Manitoba, with similar rates noted in Manitoba and a reduction in P&I admissions during the pandemic period in remote and isolated First Nations communities in Ontario. CONCLUSIONS: We found an increased risk for pH1N1-related hospital admissions for First Nations communities in all 3 provinces. Interprovincial differences may be partly explained by differences in age structure and socioeconomic status. We were unable to confirm the assumption that remote communities were at higher risk for pH1N1-associated hospitalizations. The aggressive approach to influenza control in remote and isolated First Nations communities in Ontario may have played a role in limiting the impact of pH1N1 on residents of those communities.

The ripples of adolescent motherhood: social, educational, and medical outcomes for children of teen and prior teen mothers.

OBJECTIVE: We examined medical, educational and social risks to children of teen mothers and children of nonadolescent mothers with a history of teen birth (prior teen mothers) and considered these risks at both the individual and societal level. METHODS: A population-based, retrospective cohort study tracked outcomes through young adulthood for children born in Manitoba, Canada (n = 32 179). chi(2) and logistic regression analyses examined risk of childhood death or hospitalization, failure to graduate high school, intervention by child protective services, becoming a teen mother, and welfare receipt as a young adult. RESULTS: For children of both teen and prior teen mothers, adjusted likelihoods of death during infancy, school-aged years, and adolescence were more than 2-fold higher than for other children. Risks for hospitalization, high hospital use, academic failure, and poor social outcomes were also substantially higher. At a societal level, only 16.5% of cohort children were born to teen and prior teen mothers. However, these children accounted for 27% of first-year hospitalizations, 34% of deaths (birth to 17 years), 30% of failures to graduate high school, 51% in foster care, 44% on welfare as young adults, and 56% of next-generation young teen mothers. CONCLUSIONS: Children of prior teen mothers had increased risks for poor health and for educational and social outcomes nearly equal to those seen in children of teen mothers. Combined, these relatively few children experienced a large share of the negative outcomes occurring among young people. Our results suggest the need to expand the definition of risk associated with adolescent motherhood and target their children for enhanced medical and social services.

From health research to social research: privacy, methods, approaches.

Information-rich environments in Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom have been built using record linkage techniques with population-based health insurance systems and longitudinal administrative data. This paper discusses the issues in extending population-based administrative data from health to additional topics more generally connected with well being. The scope of work associated with a multi-faceted American survey, the Panel Study in Income Dynamics (PSID), is compared with that of the administrative data in Manitoba, Canada. Both the PSID and the Manitoba database go back over 30 years, include families, and have good information on residential location. The PSID has emphasized research design to maximize the opportunities associated with expensive primary data collection. Information-rich environments such as that in Manitoba depend on registries and record linkage to increase the range of variables available for analysis. Using new databases on education and income assistance to provide information on the whole Manitoba population has involved linking files while preserving privacy, scaling educational achievement, assessing exposure to a given neighborhood, and measuring family circumstances. Questions being studied concern the role of the socioeconomic gradient and infant health in child development, the comparative influence of family and neighborhood in later well being, and the long-term effects of poverty reduction. Issues of organization of research, gaps in the data, and productivity are discussed.

Socioeconomic status and the utilization of diagnostic imaging in an urban setting.

BACKGROUND: In publicly funded health care systems, the utilization of health care services should be equitable, irrespective of socioeconomic status (SES). Although the association between SES and health care utilization has been examined in Canada relative to surgical, cardiac and preventive health care services, no published studies have specifically explored the association between SES and diagnostic imaging. METHODS: We examined over 300,000 diagnostic imaging claims made in the Winnipeg Regional Health Authority between Apr. 1, 2001, and Mar. 31, 2002. Using patient postal codes, we assigned SES on the basis of average household incomes in Canada's 1996 census. Using multiple regression, we examined the association between income quintile, patient age group (< or =16, 17-64, > or = 65 years), patient morbidity level according to the Johns Hopkins University Adjusted Clinical Group method (high, moderate, low), and imaging modality (general radiology, vascular, computed tomography, magnetic resonance, and general and obstetric ultrasound). RESULTS: Relative rates (RR) of diagnostic imaging utilization (highest v. lowest income quintile) were significantly increased in pediatric and adult patient groups at all morbidity levels receiving general radiology (highest RR 2.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.07-2.93); pediatric and adult patient groups at high and low morbidity levels and elderly patient groups at low morbidity levels receiving general ultrasound (highest RR 2.26, 95% CI 1.20-4.26); pediatric and adult patient groups at all morbidity levels and elderly patients at high and moderate morbidity levels receiving magnetic resonance imaging (highest RR 2.51, 95% CI 1.78- 3.52); and adult patient groups at all morbidity levels receiving computed tomography (highest RR 1.46, 95% CI 1.35- 1.59). A lower RR of diagnostic imaging utilization in the highest income quintile was found only among patients receiving obstetric ultrasound (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.73-0.87). No significant associations were found among elderly patients receiving general radiology or computed tomography or adult patients receiving vascular imaging. INTERPRETATION: We found a pattern of increased diagnostic imaging utilization in patient groups with a higher SES. Further research is needed to better understand the nature of this finding and how it contributes to health outcomes.

Exploring reasons for bed pressures in Winnipeg acute care hospitals.

Hospital overcrowding has plagued Winnipeg and other Canadian cities for years. This study explored factors related to overcrowding. Hospital files were used to examine patterns of hospital use from fiscal years 1996/1997 to 1999/2000. Chart reviews were conducted to examine appropriateness of admissions and hospital stays during one pressure week. Results indicate that pressure periods in the hospital system were driven by an influx of older adults with influenza-associated respiratory illnesses. Moreover, examination of one specific pressure week showed that at least 100 beds were occupied by patients who likely did not require acute care. The chart review revealed that a substantial proportion of non-acute patient-days were spent awaiting home care, long-term care, or diagnostic testing services. These findings suggest future bed pressures might be prevented through influenza vaccination and an increase in the availability of--and timely transfer to--alternative levels of care.

Anticipating change: how many acute care hospital beds will Manitoba regions need in 2020?

Being able to anticipate future needs for health services presents a challenge for health planners. Using existing population projections, two models are presented to estimate the demand for hospital beds in regions of Manitoba in 2020. The first, a current-use projection model, simply projects the average use for a recent 3-year period into the future. The second, a 10-year trend analysis, uses Poisson regression to project future demand. The current-use projection suggests a substantial increase in the demand for hospital beds, while the trend analysis projects a decline. The last projections are consistent with ongoing increases in rates of day surgeries and declines in lengths of stay. The current-use projections need to be considered in the context of relatively low occupancy rates in rural hospitals and previous research on appropriateness of stays in acute care hospitals. If measures are taken to ensure more appropriate use of acute care hospital beds in the future, then the current-use projections of bed shortages are not a cause for concern.

A methodology for estimating hospital bed need in Manitoba in 2020.

A team of health researchers of the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy at the University of Manitoba was asked to forecast the number of acute care hospital beds that will be required to meet the needs of residents of the province of Manitoba by the year 2020. Methodological considerations for this request included identification of factors expected to affect bed use in the future, and how to account for these factors. The objective of this paper is to describe these methodological considerations, how decisions were made, and steps taken in our approach to this problem. The actual projections and their implications are the subject of another contribution in this issue of the journal (Finlayson, Stewart, Tate, MacWilliam & Roos, 2005).

Trends in the health status of older Manitobans, 1985 to 1999.

Trends in the health status of the entire senior population aged 65 years or older in Manitoba were examined over a 14-year period (1985-1999) using administrative data (about 50,000 individuals). Significant health gains were apparent for a number of important indicators, including acute myocardial infarction, stroke, cancer, and hip fractures, although some of these gains were restricted to urban areas. Improvements in these health indicators are significant, as they can have major implications for individuals' need for health services and ability to live independently. In contrast, chronic diseases were on the rise, with the prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and dementia increasing substantially over the 14-year period. These trends suggest a need for a policy emphasis on prevention, such as reducing the prevalence of obesity, which is one risk factor for diabetes. Moreover, having sufficient care options in place for the growing number of individuals with dementia is an issue that will have to be addressed.

Construction and validation of a population-based bone densitometry database.

Utilization of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) for the initial diagnostic assessment of osteoporosis and in monitoring treatment has risen dramatically in recent years. Population-based studies of the impact of DXA and osteoporosis remain challenging because of incomplete and fragmented test data that exist in most regions. Our aim was to create and assess completeness of a database of all clinical DXA services and test results for the province of Manitoba, Canada and to present descriptive data resulting from testing. A regionally based bone density program for the province of Manitoba, Canada was established in 1997. Subsequent DXA services were prospectively captured in a program database. This database was retrospectively populated with earlier DXA results dating back to 1990 (the year that the first DXA scanner was installed) by integrating multiple data sources. A random chart audit was performed to assess completeness and accuracy of this dataset. For comparison, testing rates determined from the DXA database were compared with physician administrative claims data. There was a high level of completeness of this database (>99%) and accurate personal identifier information sufficient for linkage with other health care administrative data (>99%). This contrasted with physician billing data that were found to be markedly incomplete. Descriptive data provide a profile of individuals receiving DXA and their test results. In conclusion, the Manitoba bone density database has great potential as a resource for clinical and health policy research because it is population based with a high level of completeness and accuracy.

A population-based study of osteoporosis testing and treatment following introduction of a new bone densitometry service.

Bone density measurement plays a key role in the initial diagnostic assessment of osteoporosis and in targeting pharmacologic therapies. The impact of access to dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) on physician prescribing habits is unclear, however. We were able to directly evaluate the change in physician osteoporosis testing and prescribing following introduction of a DXA testing service in a geographic region that had previously had very limited access. This evaluation was conducted in the province of Manitoba, Canada, which has a provincially based bone density testing program and maintains a population-based bone density database that can be linked with administrative health data sources including drug prescriptions. The province of Manitoba was geographically partitioned into the urban and rural health regions serviced by the new program (urban(new )and rural(new)) and the remaining urban and rural health regions which had relatively unchanged DXA access during this period (urban(control) and rural(control)). Regression models of DXA testing rates and osteoporosis prescription rates were created for all older women in these regions. There was a statistically significant increase in bone density testing and BMD-guided osteoporosis treatment in the urban(new) and rural(new) regions following introduction of the DXA testing service, relative to the control regions. Although the overall rate of empiric postfracture and preventive osteoporosis treatment did not show a specific region effect, when analysis was limited to nonhormonal agents there was a significant reduction in preventive and empiric postfracture treatment in some subgroups of women. These results suggest that the local availability of the bone density testing service led to an increase in objective test-guided therapy with some reduction in the use of empiric and preventive strategies and had a neutral effect on overall use of these agents.

Potential savings from reducing inequalities in health.

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have established that socio-economic position is positively related to health status, but we know little about the real costs of these differences across an entire population. This paper estimates the potential savings in morbidity and dollars from reducing the inequalities in health among Winnipeg residents. METHODS: We measure excess morbidity by examining rates of premature death, hip fracture, and heart attack according to the relative affluence of the Winnipeg neighbourhood. We also assess the total expenditures on physician and hospital care by neighbourhood of residence. We then estimate the savings that could have been achieved if 1 ) the health of the two poorest quintiles had been raised to the level of the middle quintile, and 2) the health of the poorest four quintiles had been raised to the level of the top quintile. RESULTS: Thirty-seven percent of Winnipeg's premature deaths, 22% of the heart attacks, 20% of the hip fractures and 15% of total expenditures on hospitals and physicians ($62 million in 1999 dollars) could have been avoided if residents of the less wealthy 80% of neighbourhoods enjoyed health similar to those in the wealthiest neighbourhoods. CONCLUSION: The potential savings from reducing the socio-economic-related differences in health are high, whether they are measured in terms of morbidity or dollars. Research is needed to determine the extent to which these potential savings are achievable.

Does universal comprehensive insurance encourage unnecessary use? Evidence from Manitoba says "no".

BACKGROUND: Many argue that "free" medical care leads to unnecessary use of health resources. Evidence suggests that user fees do discourage physician use, at least by those of low socioeconomic status. In this study, we compare health care utilization and health among socioeconomic groups to determine whether people of low socioeconomic status see physicians more than would be expected given their health status. METHODS: We examined the use of health care services (physicians and hospitals) by residents of Winnipeg, Manitoba, in 1999. The cost of physician services was drawn directly from the claims filed, and the cost of hospital services was estimated using the Case Mix Group and Day Procedure Group methods linked to resource intensity weights and Manitoba hospital costs. We used neighbourhood indicators of socioeconomic status from the 1996 census and measured health status by examining rates of premature mortality, acute myocardial infarction, hip fracture (1995-1999) and diabetes (1999). Using these measures, we compared health status and health care use of residents living in areas with low average household incomes with those living in areas with high average household incomes. All rates were age- and sex-adjusted across the groups. RESULTS: The province spent 44% more providing hospital and physician services to residents of Winnipeg neighbourhoods with the lowest household incomes (820 dollars/person annually v. 596 dollars/person for residents of the neighbourhoods with highest household incomes). However, expenditures were strongly related to health status. The 70% of the population on which the province spends 10% of its health care dollars scored well on all health indicators, and the 10% of the population on which 74% of the dollars are spent scored poorly. In each expenditure group, those with lower socioeconomic status had poorer health. In the highest expenditure group, those with lowest socioeconomic status had 82% higher premature mortality rates (23.0 v. 12.6 per 100,000 population) and 53% higher hip fracture rates (5.5 v. 3.6 per 100,000 population) than those with the highest socioeconomic status. Despite their poorer health, in each expenditure group, residents of the neighbourhoods with the lowest household incomes incurred physician expenditures that were similar to those of residents of wealthier neighbourhoods. INTERPRETATION: Most people use little health care; high-cost users are a small group of very sick people drawn from all neighbourhoods and all income groups. People living in areas with low average household incomes use fewer physician services than might be expected, despite their poor health status.

The impact of influenza-associated respiratory illnesses on hospitalizations, physician visits, emergency room visits, and mortality.

OBJECTIVES: Although the increased risk of hospitalization and mortality during influenza seasons has been documented extensively, there is a relative paucity of research on the impact of influenza-related illnesses on other health care use indicators, such as physician use. The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of influenza-associated respiratory illnesses on the Winnipeg health care system, including hospitalizations, physician visits and emergency room visits. Their impact on mortality was also examined. METHODS: Administrative data were used to track health care use and mortality over four influenza seasons (1995-96 to 1998-99). Excess health care use and deaths were calculated by subtracting rates during influenza seasons from those during weeks when influenza viruses were not circulating. RESULTS: Significant excess hospitalization, physician visit, and emergency room visit rates emerged for influenza and pneumonia, acute respiratory diseases, and chronic lung disease, especially among children and adults aged 65 and over. Considerable excess mortality due to influenza and pneumonia and chronic lung disease among individuals aged 65 and over also emerged, particularly among nursing home residents. DISCUSSION: Influenza-associated respiratory illnesses have a substantial impact on the health care system. Given the burden of illness among children during influenza seasons, the study further suggests that influenza vaccination might be considered for this age group.