Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD): screening, treatment and survival analysis in a Brazilian series.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the clinical features, Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) screening, treatment modalities, and Overall Survival (OS) in a series of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma (NAFLD-HCC) Brazilian patients. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study at the Instituto do Cancer do Estado de São Paulo, at the Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo with the approval of the local research ethics committee. NAFLD patients with HCC diagnosed, from May 2010 to May 2019, were included. RESULTS: A total of 131 patients were included. Risk factors for NAFLD were present in 94.7% of the patients. Only 29% of patients were in the HCC screening program before diagnosis. HCC treatment was performed in 84.7% of patients. Cumulative survival at the end of the first year was 72%, second-year 52%, and fifth-year 32%. HCC screening before diagnosis was not significantly associated with higher cumulative survival. The independent factors associated with shorter general survival were BCLC C-D, p < 0.001, and the size of the largest nodule > 42 mm, p = 0.039. CONCLUSIONS: Although the efficacy of screening in our population regarding overall survival was hampered due to the sample size (29% had screening), BCLC stages C‒D and the size of the largest nodule larger than 42 mm were identified as independent factors of worse prognosis.

Performance of pre-transplant criteria in prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma progression and waitlist dropout.

BACKGROUND & AIM: Liver transplantation (LT) selection models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have not been proposed to predict waitlist dropout because of tumour progression. The aim of this study was to compare the alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) model and other pre-LT models in their prediction of HCC dropout. METHODS: A multicentre cohort study was conducted in 20 Latin American transplant centres, including 994 listed patients for LT with HCC from 2012 to 2018. Longitudinal tumour characteristics, and patterns of progression were recorded at time of listing, after treatments and at last follow-up over the waitlist period. Competing risk regression models were performed, and model's discrimination was compared estimating Harrell's adapted c-statistics. RESULTS: HCC dropout rate was significantly higher in patients beyond (24% [95% CI 16-28]) compared to those within Milan criteria (8% [95% IC 5%-12%]; p < .0001), with a SHR of 3.01 [95% CI 2.03-4.47]), adjusted for waiting list time and bridging therapies (c-index 0.63 [95% CI 0.57; 0.69). HCC dropout rates were higher in patients with AFP scores >2 (adjusted SHR of 3.17 [CI 2.13-4.71]), c-index of 0.71 (95% CI 0.65-0.77; p = .09 vs Milan). Similar discrimination power for HCC dropout was observed between the AFP score and the Metroticket 2.0 model. In patients within Milan, an AFP score >2 points discriminated two populations with a higher risk of HCC dropout (SHR 1.68 [95% CI 1.08-2.61]). CONCLUSIONS: Pre-transplant selection models similarly predicted HCC dropout. However, the AFP model can discriminate a higher risk of dropout among patients within Milan criteria.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD): screening, treatment and survival analysis in a Brazilian series

Abstract Objective: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the clinical features, Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) screening, treatment modalities, and Overall Survival (OS) in a series of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma (NAFLD-HCC) Brazilian patients. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study at the Instituto do Cancer do Estado de São Paulo, at the Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo with the approval of the local research ethics committee. NAFLD patients with HCC diagnosed, from May 2010 to May 2019, were included. Results: A total of 131 patients were included. Risk factors for NAFLD were present in 94.7% of the patients. Only 29% of patients were in the HCC screening program before diagnosis. HCC treatment was performed in 84.7% of patients. Cumulative survival at the end of the first year was 72%, second-year 52%, and fifth-year 32%. HCC screening before diagnosis was not significantly associated with higher cumulative survival. The independent factors associated with shorter general survival were BCLC C-D, p < 0.001, and the size of the largest nodule > 42 mm, p = 0.039. Conclusions: Although the efficacy of screening in our population regarding overall survival was hampered due to the sample size (29% had screening), BCLC stages C‒D and the size of the largest nodule larger than 42 mm were identified as independent factors of worse prognosis.

Radiomic analysis of MRI to Predict Sustained Complete Response after Radiofrequency Ablation in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma - A Pilot Study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether quantitative textural features, extracted from pretreatment MRI, can predict sustained complete response to radiofrequency ablation (RFA) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). METHODS: In this IRB-approved study, patients were selected from a maintained six-year database of consecutive patients who underwent both pretreatment MRI imaging with a probable or definitive imaging diagnosis of HCC (LI-RADS 4 or 5) and loco-regional treatment with RFA. An experienced radiologist manually segmented the hepatic nodules in MRI arterial and equilibrium phases to obtain the volume of interest (VOI) for extraction of 107 quantitative textural features, including shape and first- and second-order features. Statistical analysis was performed to evaluate associations between textural features and complete response. RESULTS: The study consisted of 34 patients with 51 treated hepatic nodules. Sustained complete response was achieved by 6 patients (4 with single nodule and 2 with multiple nodules). Of the 107 features from the arterial and equilibrium phases, 20 (18%) and 25 (23%) achieved AUC >0.7, respectively. The three best performing features were found in the equilibrium phase: Dependence Non-Uniformity Normalized and Dependence Variance (both GLDM class, with AUC of 0.78 and 0.76, respectively) and Maximum Probability (GLCM class, AUC of 0.76). CONCLUSIONS: This pilot study demonstrates that a radiomic analysis of pre-treatment MRI might be useful in identifying patients with HCC who are most likely to have a sustained complete response to RFA. Second-order features (GLDM and GLCM) extracted from equilibrium phase obtained highest discriminatory performance.

NEUTROPHIL-LYMPHOCYTE RATIO PREDICTS SHORT-TERM MORTALITY IN PATIENTS HOSPITALIZED FOR ACUTE DECOMPENSATION OF CIRRHOSIS.

BACKGROUND: Individuals with cirrhosis have a chronic systemic inflammation associated with an immune dysfunction, affecting the progression of the liver disease. The neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was proposed as a marker of systemic inflammatory response and survival in patients with cirrhosis. OBJECTIVE: Evaluate the prognostic role of NLR in cirrhotic patients and its relation with inflammatory cytokines(IL-6, IL-10 and IL-17). METHODS: In this prospective study two groups were evaluated: 1) Stable cirrhotic in outpatient follow-up (n=193); 2) Hospitalized cirrhotic for acute decompensation for at least 48 hours (n=334) with admission and 48 hours tests evaluation. Circulating inflammatory cytokines were available for 130 hospitalized patients. RESULTS: In outpatients with stable cirrhosis, NLR correlated with MELD score and other variables associated with severity of disease. However, after a median of 32 months of follow up NLR was not associated with mortality (HR 1.058, 95%CI 0.900-1.243; P=0.495). In hospitalized patients, NLR at 48-hour after admission was independently associated with 90-day survival (HR 1.061, 95%CI 1.020-1.103; P=0.003) in multivariate Cox-regression analysis. The 90-day Kaplan-Meier survival probability was 87% for patients with a 48-hour NLR <3.6 and 62% for NLR ≥3.6 (P<0.001). Elevation of NLR in the first 48 hours was also independently associated with mortality (HR 2.038, 95%CI 1295-3207; P=0.002). The 90-day Kaplan-Meier survival probability was 83% when NLR did not increase and 62% when NLR increased (P<0.001). IL-6, IL-10 and IL-17 at admission were positively correlated with both admission and 48-hour NLR. Lower levels of baseline IL-10 were associated with NLR increase during first 48-hour. CONCLUSION: NLR evaluated at 48 hours of hospitalization and its early increase after admission were independently associated with short-term mortality in patients hospitalized for acute decompensation of cirrhosis.

Razão neutrófilo-linfócito prediz mortalidade em curto prazo em pacientes hospitalizados com cirrose hepática descompensada / Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio predicts short-term mortality in patients hospitalized for acute decompensation of cirrhosis

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Individuals with cirrhosis have a chronic systemic inflammation associated with an immune dysfunction, affecting the progression of the liver disease. The neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was proposed as a marker of systemic inflammatory response and survival in patients with cirrhosis. OBJECTIVE: Evaluate the prognostic role of NLR in cirrhotic patients and its relation with inflammatory cytokines(IL-6, IL-10 and IL-17). METHODS: In this prospective study two groups were evaluated: 1) Stable cirrhotic in outpatient follow-up (n=193); 2) Hospitalized cirrhotic for acute decompensation for at least 48 hours (n=334) with admission and 48 hours tests evaluation. Circulating inflammatory cytokines were available for 130 hospitalized patients. RESULTS: In outpatients with stable cirrhosis, NLR correlated with MELD score and other variables associated with severity of disease. However, after a median of 32 months of follow up NLR was not associated with mortality (HR 1.058, 95%CI 0.900-1.243; P=0.495). In hospitalized patients, NLR at 48-hour after admission was independently associated with 90-day survival (HR 1.061, 95%CI 1.020-1.103; P=0.003) in multivariate Cox-regression analysis. The 90-day Kaplan-Meier survival probability was 87% for patients with a 48-hour NLR <3.6 and 62% for NLR ≥3.6 (P<0.001). Elevation of NLR in the first 48 hours was also independently associated with mortality (HR 2.038, 95%CI 1295-3207; P=0.002). The 90-day Kaplan-Meier survival probability was 83% when NLR did not increase and 62% when NLR increased (P<0.001). IL-6, IL-10 and IL-17 at admission were positively correlated with both admission and 48-hour NLR. Lower levels of baseline IL-10 were associated with NLR increase during first 48-hour. CONCLUSION: NLR evaluated at 48 hours of hospitalization and its early increase after admission were independently associated with short-term mortality in patients hospitalized for acute decompensation of cirrhosis.

RESUMO CONTEXTO: Na cirrose há um quadro crônico de inflamação sistêmica associada a disfunção imune, que impactam na progressão da doença hepática. A razão neutrófilo-linfócito (RNL) foi proposta como um marcador de resposta inflamatória sistêmica e sobrevida em pacientes com cirrose hepática. OBJETIVO: Avaliar o papel de RNL como marcador prognóstico em portadores de cirrose hepática e sua relação com citocinas inflamatórias (IL-6, IL-10 e IL-17). MÉTODOS: É um estudo prospectivo com duas coortes: 1) pacientes cirróticos estáveis em acompanhamento ambulatorial (n=193); 2) pacientes cirróticos hospitalizados por descompensação aguda por no mínimo 48 horas (n=334) com avaliação de exames de admissão de 48 horas. Citocinas inflamatórias séricas estavam disponíveis em 130 pacientes hospitalizados. RESULTADOS: Nos pacientes ambulatoriais com cirrose estável, RNL se correlacionou com MELD e outras variáveis associadas com gravidade da doença. Entretanto, após uma mediana de 32 meses de seguimento, RNL não apresentou associação com mortalidade (HR 1.058, 95%CI 0.900-1.243; P=0.495). Nos pacientes hospitalizados, RNL de 48 horas após a admissão apresentou associação independente com sobrevida em 90 dias (HR 1.061, 95%CI 1.020-1.103; P=0.003) na regressão multivariada de Cox. A probabilidade de sobrevivência pela curva de Kaplan-Meier em 90 dias foi de 87% em pacientes com RNL de 48 horas <3.6 e 62% nos pacientes com RNL ≥3.6 (P<0.001). A elevação de RNL nas primeiras 48 horas também foi um fator independente associado a mortalidade (HR 2.038, 95%CI 1295-3207; P=0.002). A avaliação de sobrevida em 90 dias pela curva de Kaplan-Meier foi de 83% nos pacientes em que RNL não apresentou elevação e 62% nos que apresentaram elevação de RNL (P<0.001). IL-6, IL-10 e IL-17 na admissão se correlacionaram positivamente com RNL de admissão e de 48 horas. Níveis mais baixos de IL-10 basal foram associados com elevação de RNL nas primeiras 48 horas. CONCLUSÃO: RNL avaliada em 48 horas de hospitalização e sua elevação precoce após a admissão foram fatores independentemente associados a mortalidade em curto prazo nos pacientes hospitalizados com descompensação aguda da cirrose.

Hepatocellular carcinoma in patients coinfected with hepatitis B or C and HIV: more aggressive tumor behavior?

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the 6th cause of cancer and hepatitis C (HCV) and B (HBV) viruses are the most frequent risk factors for HCC. Patients coinfected with HCV or HBV and HIV present a faster progression to liver fibrosis and higher incidence of HCC. The aim of this study was to evaluate the survival and clinical outcomes of coinfected patients with HCC comparing with non-HIV patients. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study, including 267 HCC patients with HCV or HBV infection with or without HIV. The primary endpoint was overall survival. A Kaplan-Meier curve was presented to assess survival function. Clinical and radiologic variables, according to HIV status, were compared by logistic regression. RESULTS: Among 267 HCC patients, 25 (9.3%) were HIV-positive. In the coinfected group, patients were younger (49.8 vs 61.2 years, P < 0.001), cirrhosis was less predominant (88 vs 96.7%, P = 0.05), a smaller proportion received HCC treatment (60 vs 86.3%, P = 0.001) and the frequency of portal vein tumoral thrombosis was higher (32 vs 11.1%, P = 0.003). The overall mortality rate was higher in the HIV-positive group (92 vs 74.3%), independently of clinical and tumoral variables. CONCLUSION: Coinfected patients with HCC presented higher mortality, tumor diagnosis in a younger age, less underlying cirrhosis and a higher frequency of tumoral thrombosis. Further studies are warranted to better understand the role of HIV in hepatocarcinogenesis, in order to improve the management of those patients, particularly regarding screening programs.

Low sodium to potassium ratio in spot urine sample is associated with progression to acute kidney injury and mortality in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: sodium to potassium ratio in spot urine sample (Na/Kur) is a surrogate marker of sodium excretion that is recommended for the management of patients with ascites due to cirrhosis. AIMS: to investigate Na/Kur ratio and fractional excretion of sodium (FENa) in patients admitted with decompensated cirrhosis, evaluating its relationship with acute kidney injury (AKI) and prognosis. METHODS: prospective cohort study included 225 adult subjects. Urine samples were obtained within 48 h of hospitalization. RESULTS: AKI at admission was observed in 32.9% of patients and was associated with lower Na/Kur ratio, but not FENa. Among 151 subjects initially without kidney dysfunction, AKI at some point during hospitalization occurred in 26.2% and was independently associated with low Na/Kur ratio at admission. AKI was observed in 44% of the patients with Na/Kur ratio < 1 and only in 8% when values ≥ 2. Na/Kur ratio at admission was independently associated with 30-day mortality, with Kaplan-Meier survival probability of 78.8% for Na/Kur ratio < 1 and 93.6% for values ≥ 1. CONCLUSIONS: low Na/Kur ratio in spot urine sample is associated with progression to AKI and lower short-term survival in patients hospitalized for decompensated cirrhosis.

Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: impact of expansion criteria in a multicenter cohort study from a high waitlist mortality region.

This study aimed to compare liver transplantation (LT) outcomes and evaluate the potential rise in numbers of LT candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) of different allocation policies in a high waitlist mortality region. Three policies were applied in two Latin American cohorts (1085 HCC transplanted patients and 917 listed patients for HCC): (i) Milan criteria with expansion according to UCSF downstaging (UCSF-DS), (ii) the AFP score, and (iii) restrictive policy or Double Eligibility Criteria (DEC; within Milan + AFP score ≤2). Increase in HCC patient numbers was evaluated in an Argentinian prospective validation set (INCUCAI; NCT03775863). Expansion criteria in policy A showed that UCSF-DS [28.4% (CI 12.8-56.2)] or "all-comers" [32.9% (CI 11.9-71.3)] had higher 5-year recurrence rates compared to Milan, with 10.9% increase in HCC patients for LT. The policy B showed lower recurrence rates for AFP scores ≤2 points, even expanding beyond Milan criteria, with a 3.3% increase. Patients within DEC had lower 5-year recurrence rates compared with those beyond DEC [13.3% (CI 10.1-17.3) vs 24.2% (CI 17.4-33.1; P = 0.0006], without significant HCC expansion. In conclusion, although the application of a stricter policy may optimize the selection process, this restrictive policy may lead to ethical concerns in organ allocation (NCT03775863).

Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation: Prognostic and predictive factors of survival in a Latin American cohort.

BACKGROUND & AIM: Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT) has a poor prognosis, and the adjusted effect of different treatments on post-recurrence survival (PRS) has not been well defined. This study aims to evaluate prognostic and predictive variables associated with PRS. METHODS: This Latin American multicenter retrospective cohort study included HCC patients who underwent LT between the years 2005-2018. We evaluated the effect of baseline characteristics at time of HCC recurrence diagnosis and PRS (Cox regression analysis). Early recurrences were those occurring within 12 months of LT. To evaluate the adjusted treatment effect for HCC recurrence, a propensity score matching analysis was performed to assess the probability of having received any specific treatment for recurrence. RESULTS: From a total of 1085 transplanted HCC patients, the cumulative incidence of recurrence was 16.6% (CI 13.5-20.3), with median time to recurrence of 13.0 months (IQR 6.0-26.0). Factors independently associated with PRS were early recurrence (47.6%), treatment with sorafenib and surgery/trans-arterial chemoembolization (TACE). Patients who underwent any treatment presented "early recurrences" less frequently, and more extrahepatic metastasis. This unbalanced distribution was included in the propensity score matching, with correct calibration and discrimination (receiving operator curve of 0.81 [CI 0.72;0.88]). After matching, the adjusted effect on PRS for any treatment was HR of 0.2 (0.10;0.33); P < .0001, for sorafenib therapy HR of 0.4 (0.27;0.77); P = .003, and for surgery/TACE HR of 0.4 (0.18;0.78); P = .009. CONCLUSION: Although early recurrence was associated with worse outcome, even in this population, systemic or locoregional treatments were associated with better PRS.

Elevated neopterin levels are associated with acute-on-chronic liver failure and mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Macrophage activation plays a central role in hepatic and systemic inflammation and is involved in the pathogenesis of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). AIMS: This study aimed to investigate neopterin levels in patients admitted for acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis, evaluating its relationship with ACLF and prognosis. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 205 adult subjects hospitalized for AD of cirrhosis. Twenty-one healthy subjects and 89 patients with stable cirrhosis were evaluated as controls. RESULTS: Circulating neopterin was higher in AD as compared to stable cirrhosis and healthy controls (p<0.001). ACLF was independently associated with higher neopterin levels (OR 1.015, 95% CI 1.002-1.028, p = 0.025). In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, neopterin levels (HR = 1.002, IC 95% 1.000-1.004, p = 0.041), Child-Pugh class C, and ACLF were predictors of 30-day survival. Among patients with ACLF, the Kaplan-Meier survival probability was 71.4% in those with neopterin levels < 25 nmol/L and 31.0% if neopterin ≥ 25 nmol/L (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Higher circulating neopterin was associated with ACLF in patients hospitalized for AD of cirrhosis. Neopterin levels were also independently predictors of high short-term mortality, especially among patients with ACLF, and could represent a useful biomarker of macrophage activation in clinical practice.

Direct-Acting Antivirals and Hepatocellular Carcinoma: No Evidence of Higher Wait-List Progression or Posttransplant Recurrence.

The association between direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) wait-list progression or its recurrence following liver transplantation (LT) remains uncertain. We evaluated the impact of DAAs on HCC wait-list progression and post-LT recurrence. This Latin American multicenter retrospective cohort study included HCC patients listed for LT between 2012 and 2018. Patients were grouped according to etiology of liver disease: hepatitis C virus (HCV) negative, HCV+ never treated with DAAs, and HCV+ treated with DAAs either before or after transplantation. Multivariate competing risks models were conducted for both HCC wait-list progression adjusted by a propensity score matching (pre-LT DAA effect) and for post-LT HCC recurrence (pre- or post-LT DAA effect). From 994 included patients, 50.6% were HCV-, 32.9% were HCV+ never treated with DAAs, and 16.5% were HCV+ treated with DAAs either before (n = 66) or after LT (n = 98). Patients treated with DAAs before LT presented similar cumulative incidence of wait-list tumor progression when compared with those patients who were HCV+ without DAAs (26.2% versus 26.9%; P = 0.47) and a similar HCC-related dropout rate (12.1% [95% CI, 0.4%-8.1%] versus 12.9% [95% CI, 3.8%-27.2%]), adjusted for baseline tumor burden, alpha-fetoprotein values, HCC diagnosis after listing, bridging therapies, and by the probability of having received or not received DAAs through propensity score matching (subhazard ratio [SHR], 0.9; 95% CI, 0.6-1.6; P = 0.95). A lower incidence of posttransplant HCC recurrence among HCV+ patients who were treated with pre- or post-LT DAAs was observed (SHR, 0.7%; 95% CI, 0.2%-4.0%). However, this effect was confounded by the time to DAA initiation after LT. In conclusion, in this multicenter cohort, HCV treatment with DAAs did not appear to be associated with an increased wait-list tumor progression and HCC recurrence after LT.