The distribution and conservation of areas with microendemic species in a biodiversity hotspot: a multi-taxa approach.

Background: Microendemic species are species with very small geographic distributions (ranges). Their presence delimitates areas with microendemic species (AMs), denoting a spatial unit comprising at least one population of at least one microendemic species. AMs are assumed to be distributed distinctively and associated with specific ecological, historical, and anthropogenic attributes. However, the level of influence of these factors remains unclear. Thus, we studied the distribution patterns of microendemic species within the Brazilian Atlantic Forest to (a) identify the region's AMs; (b) evaluate whether ecological (latitude, altitude, distance from the coastline), historical (climate stability), and anthropogenic (ecological integrity) attributes distinguish AMs from non-AMs; and (c) assess the conservation status of the Atlantic Forest's AMs. Methods: We mapped the ranges of 1,362 microendemic species of angiosperms, freshwater fishes, and terrestrial vertebrates (snakes, passerine birds, and small mammals) to identify the region's AMs. Further, spatial autoregressive logit regression models were used to evaluate whether latitude, altitude, distance from the coastline, Climate Stability Index, and ecological integrity can be used to discern AMs from non-AMs. Moreover, the AMs' conservation status was assessed by evaluating the region's ecological integrity and conservation efforts (measured as the proportion of AMs in protected areas). Results: We identified 261 AMs for angiosperm, 205 AMs for freshwater fishes, and 102 AMs for terrestrial vertebrates in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, totaling 474 AMs covering 23.8% of the region. The Brazilian Atlantic Forest is a large and complex biogeographic mosaic where AMs represent islands or archipelagoes surrounded by transition areas with no microendemic species. All local attributes help to distinguish AMs from non-AMs, but their impacts vary across taxonomic groups. Around 69% of AMs have low ecological integrity and poor conservation efforts, indicating that most microendemic species are under threat. This study provides insights into the biogeography of one of the most important global biodiversity hotspots, creating a foundation for comparative studies using other tropical forest regions.

Human disturbance is the major driver of vegetation changes in the Caatinga dry forest region.

Drastic changes in vegetation structure caused by exceeding ecological thresholds have fueled the interest in tropical forest responses to climate and land-use changes. Here, we examine the potential successional trajectories experienced by the largest dry tropical forest region in South America, driven by climate conditions and human disturbance. We built potential distribution models for vertebrate taxa associated with forest or shrub habitats to estimate natural vegetation cover. Distribution patterns were compared to current vegetation across the entire region to identify distinct forest degradation levels. Our results indicate the region has climatic and soil conditions suitable for more forest cover than is currently found, even in some areas with limited precipitation. However, 11.04% of natural cover persists across such an immense region, with only 4.34% consisting of forest cover. Forest degradation is characterized by the dramatic expansion of shrubland (390%), farming, and non-vegetation cover due to changes in land-use, rather than climatic conditions. Although different climate conditions have been the principal drivers for natural forest distribution in the region, the forest seems unable to resist the consequences of land-use changes, particularly in lower precipitation areas. Therefore, land-use change has exceeded the ecological thresholds for the persistence of forests, while climate change may exacerbate vegetation-type transitions.