Potential aboveground biomass increase in Brazilian Atlantic Forest fragments with climate change.

Fragmented tropical forest landscapes preserve much of the remaining biodiversity and carbon stocks. Climate change is expected to intensify droughts and increase fire hazard and fire intensities, thereby causing habitat deterioration, and losses of biodiversity and carbon stock losses. Understanding the trajectories that these landscapes may follow under increased climate pressure is imperative for establishing strategies for conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Here, we used a quantitative predictive modelling approach to project the spatial distribution of the aboveground biomass density (AGB) by the end of the 21st century across the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (AF) domain. To develop the models, we used the maximum entropy method with projected climate data to 2100, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 from the fifth Assessment Report. Our AGB models had a satisfactory performance (area under the curve > 0.75 and p value < .05). The models projected a significant increase of 8.5% in the total carbon stock. Overall, the projections indicated that 76.9% of the AF domain would have suitable climatic conditions for increasing biomass by 2100 considering the RCP 4.5 scenario, in the absence of deforestation. Of the existing forest fragments, 34.7% are projected to increase their AGB, while 2.6% are projected to have their AGB reduced by 2100. The regions likely to lose most AGB-up to 40% compared to the baseline-are found between latitudes 13° and 20° south. Overall, although climate change effects on AGB vary latitudinally for the 2071-2100 period under the RCP 4.5 scenario, our model indicates that AGB stocks can potentially increase across a large fraction of the AF. The patterns found here are recommended to be taken into consideration during the planning of restoration efforts, as part of climate change mitigation strategies in the AF and elsewhere in Brazil.

Human impacts as the main driver of tropical forest carbon.

Understanding the mechanisms controlling forest carbon storage is crucial to support "nature-based" solutions for climate change mitigation. We used a dataset of 892 Atlantic Forest inventories to assess the direct and indirect effects of environmental conditions, human impacts, tree community proprieties, and sampling methods on tree above-ground carbon stocks. We showed that the widely accepted drivers of carbon stocks, such as climate, soil, topography, and forest fragmentation, have a much smaller role than the forest disturbance history and functional proprieties of the Atlantic Forest. Specifically, within-forest disturbance level was the most important driver, with effect at least 30% higher than any of the environmental conditions individually. Thus, our findings suggest that the conservation of tropical carbon stocks may be dependable on, principally, avoiding forest degradation and that conservation policies focusing only on carbon may fail to protect tropical biodiversity.

The hypothesis of sympatric speciation as the dominant generator of endemism in a global hotspot of biodiversity.

Allopatric or sympatric speciation influence the degree to which closely related species coexist in different manners, altering the patterns of phylogenetic structure and turnover among and between communities. The objective of this study was to examine whether phylogenetic community structure and turnover in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest permit conclusions about the dominant process for the formation of extant angiosperm richness of tree species. Therefore, we analyzed phylogenetic community structure (MPD, MNTD) as well as taxonomic (Jaccard similarity) and phylogenetic turnover (betaMPD, betaMNTD) among and between 49 tree communities distributed among three different habitat types. Mean annual precipitation and mean annual temperature in each survey area were estimated. Phylogenetic community structure does not differ between habitat types, although MPD reduces with mean annual temperature. Jaccard similarity decreases and betaMNTD increases with spatial distance and environmental differences between study sites. Spatial distance explains the largest portions of variance in the data, indicating dispersal limitation and the spatial aggregation of recently formed taxa, as betaMNTD is related to more recent evolutionary events. betaMPD, that is related to deep evolutionary splits, shows no spatial or environmental pattern, indicating that older clades are equally distributed across the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. While similarity pattern indicates dispersal limitations, the spatial turnover of betaMNTD is consistent with a high degree of sympatric speciation generating extant diversity and endemism in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. More comprehensive approaches are necessary to reduce spatial sampling bias, uncertainties regarding angiosperm diversification patterns and confirm sympatric speciation as the dominant generator for the formation of extant species diversity in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.