Political leadership has limited impact on fossil fuel taxes and subsidies.

For countries to rapidly decarbonize, they need strong leadership, according to both academic studies and popular accounts. But leadership is difficult to measure, and its importance is unclear. We use original data to investigate the role of presidents, prime ministers, and monarchs in 155 countries from 1990 to 2015 in changing their countries' gasoline taxes and subsidies. Our findings suggest that the impact of leaders on fossil fuel taxes and subsidies is surprisingly limited and often ephemeral. This holds true regardless of the leader's age, gender, education, or political ideology. Rulers who govern during an economic crisis perform no better or worse than other rulers. Even presidents and prime ministers who were recognized by the United Nations for environmental leadership had no more success than other leaders in reducing subsidies or raising fuel taxes. Where leaders appear to play an important role-primarily in countries with large subsidies-their reforms often failed, with subsidies returning to prereform levels within the first 12 mo 62% of the time, and within 5 y 87% of the time. Our findings suggest that leaders of all types find it exceptionally hard to raise the cost of fossil fuels for consumers. To promote deep decarbonization, leaders are likely to have more success with other types of policies, such as reducing the costs and increasing the availability of renewable energy.

Effects of per capita payments on governance: evidence from tribal casinos.

Some governments distribute profits from state-owned enterprises to citizens on a per capita basis while others do not. Does the use of per capita payments affect how governments trade off pro-economy policies with other constituent interests such as environmental quality and public health? We study that question in the context of tribal government decisions to close or keep open casinos on American Indian reservations during the COVID-19 pandemic. Relying on per capita payment data and administrative information on the operational status of over 200 tribal casinos, we investigate how the distribution of per capita payments relates to the number of days casinos were closed from February 2020 through February 2022. After controlling for casino size at the onset of COVID-19, as well as demographic, economic, and geographic characteristics of the reservations on which the casinos operate, we find that casinos governed by per capita payments remained open about 17-29% longer than other reservation-based casinos. That finding suggests that per capita payments create a pro-economy constituency and implies that the decision to pay dividends directly to citizens affects the sizes of revenues from state-owned enterprises, such as tribal-government-owned casinos, rather than merely determining how they are distributed.