Serum Fibroblast Growth Factor-21 Discriminates Between Decompensated Alcohol-Associated Cirrhosis and Severe Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis.

INTRODUCTION: We hypothesized that fibroblast growth factor-21 (FGF-21) would be highly expressed in patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) and could be a novel and biologically relevant predictive biomarker to reliably distinguish severe AH and decompensated alcohol-associated cirrhosis (AC). METHODS: We identified a discovery cohort of 88 subjects with alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) of varying disease severity from our ALD repository. Our validation cohort consisted of 37 patients with a biopsy-proven diagnosis of AH, AC, or absence of ALD with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores ≥10. Serum from both groups during index hospitalization was assayed for FGF-21 by ELISA. We performed receiver operating characteristic analysis and prediction modeling in both cohorts to discriminate between AH and AC in high Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (≥20) patients. RESULTS: In both cohorts, FGF-21 concentrations were highest in subjects with moderate to severe AH compared with those having alcohol use disorder or AC (mean: 2,609 pg/mL, P < 0.0001). The discovery cohort area under the curve of FGF-21 between AH and AC was 0.81 (95% confidence interval: 0.65-0.98, P < 0.01). In the validation cohort, FGF-21 levels were higher in severe AH compared with AC (3,052 vs 1,235 pg/mL, P = 0.03), and the area under the curve was 0.76 (95% confidence interval: 0.56-0.96, P < 0.03). A survival analysis showed that patients with FGF-21 serum levels in the second interquartile had the highest survival compared with all other quartiles. DISCUSSION: FGF-21 performs well as a predictive biomarker to distinguish severe AH from AC and may be helpful in the management and clinical investigation of patients with severe alcohol-associated liver diseases.

Screening tools for predicting mortality of adults with suspected sepsis: an international sepsis cohort validation study.

OBJECTIVES: We evaluated the performance of commonly used sepsis screening tools across prospective sepsis cohorts in the USA, Cambodia and Ghana. DESIGN: Prospective cohort studies. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: From 2014 to 2021, participants with two or more SIRS (Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome) criteria and suspected infection were enrolled in emergency departments and medical wards at hospitals in Cambodia and Ghana and hospitalised participants with suspected infection were enrolled in the USA. Cox proportional hazards regression was performed, and Harrell's C-statistic calculated to determine 28-day mortality prediction performance of the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score ≥2, SIRS score ≥3, National Early Warning Score (NEWS) ≥5, Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) ≥5 or Universal Vital Assessment (UVA) score ≥2. Screening tools were compared with baseline risk (age and sex) with the Wald test. RESULTS: The cohorts included 567 participants (42.9% women) including 187 participants from Kumasi, Ghana, 200 participants from Takeo, Cambodia and 180 participants from Durham, North Carolina in the USA. The pooled mortality was 16.4% at 28 days. The mortality prediction accuracy increased from baseline risk with the MEWS (C-statistic: 0.63, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.68; p=0.002), NEWS (C-statistic: 0.68; 95% CI 0.64 to 0.73; p<0.001), qSOFA (C-statistic: 0.70, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.75; p<0.001), UVA score (C-statistic: 0.73, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.78; p<0.001), but not with SIRS (0.60; 95% CI 0.54 to 0.65; p=0.13). Within individual cohorts, only the UVA score in Ghana performed better than baseline risk (C-statistic: 0.77; 95% CI 0.71 to 0.83; p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Among the cohorts, MEWS, NEWS, qSOFA and UVA scores performed better than baseline risk, largely driven by accuracy improvements in Ghana, while SIRS scores did not improve prognostication accuracy. Prognostication scores should be validated within the target population prior to clinical use.

Validation of a Host Gene Expression Test for Bacterial/Viral Discrimination in Immunocompromised Hosts.

BACKGROUND: Host gene expression has emerged as a complementary strategy to pathogen detection tests for the discrimination of bacterial and viral infection. The impact of immunocompromise on host-response tests remains unknown. We evaluated a host-response test discriminating bacterial, viral, and noninfectious conditions in immunocompromised subjects. METHODS: An 81-gene signature was measured using real-time-polymerase chain reaction in subjects with immunocompromise (chemotherapy, solid-organ transplant, immunomodulatory agents, AIDS) with bacterial infection, viral infection, or noninfectious illness. A regularized logistic regression model trained in immunocompetent subjects was used to estimate the likelihood of each class in immunocompromised subjects. RESULTS: Accuracy in the 136-subject immunocompetent training cohort was 84.6% for bacterial versus nonbacterial discrimination and 80.8% for viral versus nonviral discrimination. Model validation in 134 immunocompromised subjects showed overall accuracy of 73.9% for bacterial infection (P = .04 relative to immunocompetent subjects) and 75.4% for viral infection (P = .30). A scheme reporting results by quartile improved test utility. The highest probability quartile ruled-in bacterial and viral infection with 91.4% and 84.0% specificity, respectively. The lowest probability quartile ruled-out infection with 90.1% and 96.4% sensitivity for bacterial and viral infection, respectively. Performance was independent of the type or number of immunocompromising conditions. CONCLUSIONS: A host gene expression test discriminated bacterial, viral, and noninfectious etiologies at a lower overall accuracy in immunocompromised patients compared with immunocompetent patients, although this difference was only significant for bacterial infection classification. With modified interpretive criteria, a host-response strategy may offer clinically useful diagnostic information for patients with immunocompromise.