A meta-analysis on global change drivers and the risk of infectious disease.

Anthropogenic change is contributing to the rise in emerging infectious diseases, which are significantly correlated with socioeconomic, environmental and ecological factors1. Studies have shown that infectious disease risk is modified by changes to biodiversity2-6, climate change7-11, chemical pollution12-14, landscape transformations15-20 and species introductions21. However, it remains unclear which global change drivers most increase disease and under what contexts. Here we amassed a dataset from the literature that contains 2,938 observations of infectious disease responses to global change drivers across 1,497 host-parasite combinations, including plant, animal and human hosts. We found that biodiversity loss, chemical pollution, climate change and introduced species are associated with increases in disease-related end points or harm, whereas urbanization is associated with decreases in disease end points. Natural biodiversity gradients, deforestation and forest fragmentation are comparatively unimportant or idiosyncratic as drivers of disease. Overall, these results are consistent across human and non-human diseases. Nevertheless, context-dependent effects of the global change drivers on disease were found to be common. The findings uncovered by this meta-analysis should help target disease management and surveillance efforts towards global change drivers that increase disease. Specifically, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, managing ecosystem health, and preventing biological invasions and biodiversity loss could help to reduce the burden of plant, animal and human diseases, especially when coupled with improvements to social and economic determinants of health.

Mean species responses predict effects of environmental change on coexistence.

Environmental change research is plagued by the curse of dimensionality: the number of communities at risk and the number of environmental drivers are both large. This raises the pressing question if a general understanding of ecological effects is achievable. Here, we show evidence that this is indeed possible. Using theoretical and simulation-based evidence for bi- and tritrophic communities, we show that environmental change effects on coexistence are proportional to mean species responses and depend on how trophic levels on average interact prior to environmental change. We then benchmark our findings using relevant cases of environmental change, showing that means of temperature optima and of species sensitivities to pollution predict concomitant effects on coexistence. Finally, we demonstrate how to apply our theory to the analysis of field data, finding support for effects of land use change on coexistence in natural invertebrate communities.

Density declines, richness increases, and composition shifts in stream macroinvertebrates.

Documenting trends of stream macroinvertebrate biodiversity is challenging because biomonitoring often has limited spatial, temporal, and taxonomic scopes. We analyzed biodiversity and composition of assemblages of >500 genera, spanning 27 years, and 6131 stream sites across forested, grassland, urban, and agricultural land uses throughout the United States. In this dataset, macroinvertebrate density declined by 11% and richness increased by 12.2%, and insect density and richness declined by 23.3 and 6.8%, respectively, over 27 years. In addition, differences in richness and composition between urban and agricultural versus forested and grassland streams have increased over time. Urban and agricultural streams lost the few disturbance-sensitive taxa they once had and gained disturbance-tolerant taxa. These results suggest that current efforts to protect and restore streams are not sufficient to mitigate anthropogenic effects.

Pesticides alter ecosystem respiration via phytoplankton abundance and community structure: Effects on the carbon cycle?

Freshwater systems are critical to life on earth, yet they are threatened by the increasing rate of synthetic chemical pollution. Current predictions of the effects of synthetic chemicals on freshwater ecosystems are hampered by the sheer number of chemical contaminants entering aquatic systems, the diversity of organisms inhabiting these systems, the myriad possible direct and indirect effects resulting from these combinations, and uncertainties concerning how contaminants might alter ecosystem metabolism via changes in biodiversity. To address these knowledge gaps, we conducted a mesocosm experiment that elucidated the responses of ponds composed of phytoplankton and zooplankton to standardized concentrations of 12 pesticides, nested within four pesticide classes, and two pesticide types. We show that the effects of the pesticides on algae were consistent within herbicides and insecticides and that responses of over 70 phytoplankton species and genera were consistent within broad taxonomic groups. Insecticides generated top-down effects on phytoplankton community composition and abundance, which were associated with persistent increases in ecosystem respiration. Insecticides had direct toxic effects on cladocerans, which led to competitive release of copepods. These changes in the zooplankton community led to a decrease in green algae and a modest increase in diatoms. Herbicides did not change phytoplankton composition but reduced total phytoplankton abundance. This reduction in phytoplankton led to short-term decreases in ecosystem respiration. Given that ponds release atmospheric carbon and that worldwide pesticide pollution continues to increase exponentially, scientists and policy makers should pay more attention to the ways pesticides alter the carbon cycle in ponds via changes in communities, as demonstrated by our results. Our results show that these predictions can be simplified by grouping pesticides into types and species into functional groups. Adopting this approach provides an opportunity to improve the efficiency of risk assessment and mitigation responses to global change.

Consistent effects of pesticides on community structure and ecosystem function in freshwater systems.

Predicting ecological effects of contaminants remains challenging because of the sheer number of chemicals and their ambiguous role in biodiversity-ecosystem function relationships. We evaluate responses of experimental pond ecosystems to standardized concentrations of 12 pesticides, nested in four pesticide classes and two pesticide types. We show consistent effects of herbicides and insecticides on ecosystem function, and slightly less consistent effects on community composition. Effects of pesticides on ecosystem function are mediated by alterations in the abundance and community composition of functional groups. Through bottom-up effects, herbicides reduce respiration and primary productivity by decreasing the abundance of phytoplankton. The effects of insecticides on respiration and primary productivity of phytoplankton are driven by top-down effects on zooplankton composition and abundance, but not richness. By demonstrating consistent effects of pesticides on communities and ecosystem functions and linking pesticide-induced changes in functional groups of organisms to ecosystem functions, the study suggests that ecological risk assessment of registered chemicals could be simplified to synthetic chemical classes or types and groups of organisms with similar functions and chemical toxicities.

Experimental effects of white-tailed deer and an invasive shrub on forest ant communities.

Ungulate browse and invasive plants exert pressure on plant communities and alter the physical and chemical properties of soils, but little is known about their effects on litter-dwelling arthropods. In particular, ants (Formicidae) are ubiquitous in temperate forests and are sensitive to changes in habitat structure and resources. As ants play many functional roles, changes to ant communities may lead to changes in ecosystem processes. We conducted a long-term experiment that controlled white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) access and presence of an invasive understory shrub in deciduous forests located in southwestern Ohio, USA from 2011 to 2017. Several leaf-litter ant community responses and litter biomass were measured in five paired deer access and exclosure plots, each with a split-plot removal of Amur honeysuckle (Lonicera maackii). Ant abundance and species richness increased with time in deer exclosures, but not in deer access plots. Honeysuckle removal reduced abundance and richness of ants. There were additive effects of deer and honeysuckle on ant richness, and interactive effects of deer and honeysuckle on ant abundance. Deer exclusion reduced variation in ant composition relative to access plots. There was little evidence that treatments directly influenced species diversity of ants. However, all ant measures were positively related to litter biomass, which was greater in deer exclosures relative to access plots. Our results indicate strong indirect effects of herbivores and honeysuckle on litter-dwelling ants, mediated through changes in litter biomass and likely vegetation structure, which may alter ant-mediated ecosystem processes.

Invasive earthworm and soil litter response to the experimental removal of white-tailed deer and an invasive shrub.

Recent studies have shown that complex species interactions can regulate above- and belowground processes in terrestrial systems. Ungulate herbivory and invasive species are known to have strong effects on plant communities in some systems, but their impacts on soil biota and belowground processes are lesser known. Growing evidence suggests white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and invasive plants facilitate increased abundance of exotic earthworms in temperate forests of the eastern United States. We conducted an experimental study that manipulated deer access and the presence of an invasive understory shrub in an eastern deciduous forest of southwestern Ohio, USA, from 2013 to 2017. Earthworm density and biomass, and standing litter biomass were measured in five paired deer access and exclosure plots, each with a split-plot removal of Amur honeysuckle (Lonicera maackii). Earthworm density declined in response to the experimental exclusion of deer, with earthworm density decreasing over time in the deer exclosure plots relative to deer access plots. Deer exclusion produced greater variation in earthworm species composition relative to access plots. Multivariate analyses indicated that larger earthworms in the genus Lumbricus were associated with deer exclosure plots, while smaller endogeic species were ubiquitous in both treatments. Standing litter biomass decreased over time in the deer-access plots. In contrast, honeysuckle removal had little effect on earthworm density and standing litter biomass. There was an interaction between deer and honeysuckle treatments on earthworm biomass, with honeysuckle removal reducing earthworm biomass when deer were excluded. Our results demonstrate strong effects of herbivores on invasive earthworms and ecosystem processes, but indicate a weaker influence of invasive shrubs. Further, our findings suggest that the effects of deer overabundance in forest ecosystems are potentially reversible with long-term intervention.

Effectiveness of Winkler Litter Extraction and Pitfall Traps in Sampling Ant Communities and Functional Groups in a Temperate Forest.

Selection of proper sampling methods for measuring a community of interest is essential whether the study goals are to conduct a species inventory, environmental monitoring, or a manipulative experiment. Insect diversity studies often employ multiple collection methods at the expense of researcher time and funding. Ants (Formicidae) are widely used in environmental monitoring owing to their sensitivity to ecosystem changes. When sampling ant communities, two passive techniques are recommended in combination: pitfall traps and Winkler litter extraction. These recommendations are often based on studies from highly diverse tropical regions or when a species inventory is the goal. Studies in temperate regions often focus on measuring consistent community response along gradients of disturbance or among management regimes; therefore, multiple sampling methods may be unnecessary. We compared the effectiveness of pitfalls and Winkler litter extraction in an eastern temperate forest for measuring ant species richness, composition, and occurrence of ant functional groups in response to experimental manipulations of two key forest ecosystem drivers, white-tailed deer and an invasive shrub (Amur honeysuckle). We found no significant effect of sampling method on the outcome of the ecological experiment; however, we found differences between the two sampling methods in the resulting ant species richness and functional group occurrence. Litter samples approximated the overall combined species richness and composition, but pitfalls were better at sampling large-bodied (Camponotus) species. We conclude that employing both methods is essential only for species inventories or monitoring ants in the Cold-climate Specialists functional group.