Distinct monkeypox virus lineages co-circulating in humans before 2022.

The 2022 global mpox outbreak raises questions about how this zoonotic disease established effective human-to-human transmission and its potential for further adaptation. The 2022 outbreak virus is related to an ongoing outbreak in Nigeria originally reported in 2017, but the evolutionary path linking the two remains unclear due to a lack of genomic data between 2018, when virus exportations from Nigeria were first recorded, and 2022, when the global mpox outbreak began. Here, 18 viral genomes obtained from patients across southern Nigeria in 2019-2020 reveal multiple lineages of monkeypox virus (MPXV) co-circulated in humans for several years before 2022, with progressive accumulation of mutations consistent with APOBEC3 activity over time. We identify Nigerian A.2 lineage isolates, confirming the lineage that has been multiply exported to North America independently of the 2022 outbreak originated in Nigeria, and that it has persisted by human-to-human transmission in Nigeria for more than 2 years before its latest exportation. Finally, we identify a lineage-defining APOBEC3-style mutation in all A.2 isolates that disrupts gene A46R, encoding a viral innate immune modulator. Collectively, our data demonstrate MPXV capacity for sustained diversification within humans, including mutations that may be consistent with established mechanisms of poxvirus adaptation.

Aspirin to target arterial events in chronic kidney disease (ATTACK): study protocol for a multicentre, prospective, randomised, open-label, blinded endpoint, parallel group trial of low-dose aspirin vs. standard care for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in people with chronic kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a very common long-term condition and powerful risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Low-dose aspirin is of proven benefit in the secondary prevention of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke in people with pre-existing CVD. However, in people without CVD, the rates of MI and stroke are much lower, and the benefits of aspirin in the primary prevention of CVD are largely balanced by an increased risk of bleeding. People with CKD are at greatly increased risk of CVD and so the absolute benefits of aspirin are likely to be greater than in lower-risk groups, even if the relative benefits are the same. Post hoc evidence suggests the relative benefits may be greater in the CKD population but the risk of bleeding may also be higher. A definitive study of aspirin for primary prevention in this high-risk group, recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in 2014, has never been conducted. The question has global significance given the rising burden of CKD worldwide and the low cost of aspirin. METHODS: ATTACK is a pragmatic multicentre, prospective, randomised, open-label, blinded endpoint adjudication superiority trial of aspirin 75 mg daily vs. standard care for the primary prevention of CVD in 25,210 people aged 18 years and over with CKD recruited from UK Primary Care. Participants aged 18 years and over with CKD (GFR category G1-G4) will be identified in Primary Care and followed up using routinely collected data and annual questionnaires for an average of 5 years. The primary outcome is the time to first major vascular event (composite of non-fatal MI, non-fatal stroke and cardiovascular death [excluding confirmed intracranial haemorrhage and other fatal cardiovascular haemorrhage]). Deaths from other causes (including fatal bleeding) will be treated as competing events. The study will continue until 1827 major vascular events have occurred. The principal safety outcome is major intracranial and extracranial bleeding; this is hypothesised to be increased in those randomised to take aspirin. The key consideration is then whether and to what extent the benefits of aspirin from the expected reduction in CVD events exceed the risks of major bleeding. DISCUSSION: This will be the first definitive trial of aspirin for primary CVD prevention in CKD patients. The research will be of great interest to clinicians, guideline groups and policy-makers, in the UK and globally, particularly given the high and rising prevalence of CKD that is driven by population ageing and epidemics of obesity and diabetes. The low cost of aspirin means that a positive result would be of relevance to low- and middle-income countries and the impact in the developed world less diluted by any inequalities in health care access. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN: ISRCTN40920200 . EudraCT: 2018-000644-26 . CLINICALTRIALS: gov: NCT03796156.

Pathogenic Variants in CHEK2 Are Associated With an Adverse Prognosis in Symptomatic Early-Onset Breast Cancer.

PURPOSE: Checkpoint kinase 2 (CHEK2) is frequently included in multigene panels. We describe the associated outcomes among carriers of CHEK2 pathogenic variants in young patients with symptomatic breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Participants (N = 2,344) in the Prospective Outcomes in Sporadic Versus Hereditary Breast Cancer study had a diagnosis of primary invasive breast cancer at age ≤ 40 years. Summary statistics were used to compare tumor characteristics among CHEK2+ carriers with those who were CHEK2-. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to demonstrate overall survival (OS) and distant disease-free survival. RESULTS: Overall, 53 of the 2,344 participants (2.3%) had a pathogenic CHEK2 variant. CHEK2+-associated tumors were significantly more likely to be grade 2, estrogen receptor and progesterone receptor-positive compared with CHEK2- tumors (grade 2, n = 28 of 52 [53.8%] v n = 803 of 2,229 [36.0%]; P = .029). CHEK2-associated tumors were significantly more likely to have nodal involvement (N1, n = 37 of 53 [69.8%] v 1,169 of 2,253 [51.9%]; P = .0098) and demonstrated a trend toward multifocality. A higher proportion of participants with CHEK2+ variants with invasive breast cancer were obese than were those with CHEK2- variant (28.3% v 18.8%; P = .039). Univariate and multivariable analyses revealed that OS and distant disease-free survival were significantly worse in CHEK2+ versus CHEK2- carriers (OS hazard ratio, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.01 to 2.48; P = .043). CONCLUSION: This work highlights the adverse prognosis associated with breast cancer in carriers of CHEK2 pathogenic variants. It also identifies a potential association among obesity, family history, and breast cancer risk in young CHEK2 gene carriers.

Effectiveness of nurse-led group CBT for hot flushes and night sweats in women with breast cancer: Results of the MENOS4 randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: Troublesome hot flushes and night sweats (HFNS) are experienced by many women after treatment for breast cancer, impacting significantly on sleep and quality of life. Cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) is known to be effective for the alleviation of HFNS. However, it is not known if it can effectively be delivered by specialist nurses. We investigated whether group CBT, delivered by breast care nurses (BCNs), can reduce the impact of HFNS. METHODS: We recruited women with primary breast cancer following primary treatment with seven or more HFNS/week (including 4/10 or above on the HFNS problem rating scale), from six UK hospitals to an open, randomised, phase 3 effectiveness trial. Participants were randomised to Group CBT or usual care (UC). The primary endpoint was HFNS problem rating at 26 weeks after randomisation. Secondary outcomes included sleep, depression, anxiety and quality of life. RESULTS: Between 2017 and 2018, 130 participants were recruited (CBT:63, control:67). We found a 46% (6.9-3.7) reduction in the mean HFNS problem rating score from randomisation to 26 weeks in the CBT arm and a 15% (6.5-5.5) reduction in the UC arm (adjusted mean difference -1.96, CI -3.68 to -0.23, P = .039). Secondary outcomes, including frequency of HFNS, sleep, anxiety and depression all improved significantly. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that specialist nurses can be trained to deliver CBT effectively to alleviate troublesome menopausal hot flushes in women following breast cancer in the NHS setting.

Survival and disease characteristics of de novo versus recurrent metastatic breast cancer in a cohort of young patients.

BACKGROUND: It is not clear how the pathology, presentation and outcome for patients who present with de novo metastatic breast cancer (dnMBC) compare with those who later develop distant metastases. DnMBC is uncommon in younger patients. We describe these differences within a cohort of young patients in the United Kingdom. METHODS: Women aged 40 years or younger with a first invasive breast cancer were recruited to the prospective POSH national cohort study. Baseline clinicopathological data were collected, with annual follow-up. Overall survival (OS) and post-distant relapse-free survival (PDRS) were assessed using Kaplan-Meier curves. RESULTS: In total, 862 patients were diagnosed with metastatic disease. DnMBC prevalence was 2.6% (76/2977). Of those with initially localised disease, 27.1% (786/2901) subsequently developed a distant recurrence. Median follow-up was 11.00 years (95% CI 10.79-11.59). Patients who developed metastatic disease within 12 months had worse OS than dnMBC patients (HR 2.64; 1.84-3.77). For PDRS, dnMBC was better than all groups, including those who relapsed after 5 years. Of dnMBC patients, 1.3% had a gBRCA1, and 11.8% a gBRCA2 mutation. CONCLUSIONS: Young women with dnMBC have better PDRS than those who develop relapsed metastatic breast cancer. A gBRCA2 mutation was overrepresented in dnMBC.

Systemic chemotherapy with or without cetuximab in patients with resectable colorectal liver metastasis (New EPOC): long-term results of a multicentre, randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: The interim analysis of the multicentre New EPOC trial in patients with resectable colorectal liver metastasis showed a significant reduction in progression-free survival in patients allocated to cetuximab plus chemotherapy compared with those given chemotherapy alone. The focus of the present analysis was to assess the effect on overall survival. METHODS: New EPOC was a multicentre, open-label, randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial. Adult patients (aged ≥18 years) with KRAS wild-type (codons 12, 13, and 61) resectable or suboptimally resectable colorectal liver metastases and a WHO performance status of 0-2 were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive chemotherapy with or without cetuximab before and after liver resection. Randomisation was done centrally with minimisation factors of surgical centre, poor prognosis cancer, and previous adjuvant treatment with oxaliplatin. Chemotherapy consisted of oxaliplatin 85 mg/m2 administered intravenously over 2 h, l-folinic acid (175 mg flat dose administered intravenously over 2 h) or d,l-folinic acid (350 mg flat dose administered intravenously over 2 h), and fluorouracil bolus 400 mg/m2 administered intravenously over 5 min, followed by a 46 h infusion of fluorouracil 2400 mg/m2 repeated every 2 weeks (regimen one), or oxaliplatin 130 mg/m2 administered intravenously over 2 h and oral capecitabine 1000 mg/m2 twice daily on days 1-14 repeated every 3 weeks (regimen two). Patients who had received adjuvant oxaliplatin could receive irinotecan 180 mg/m2 intravenously over 30 min with fluorouracil instead of oxaliplatin (regimen three). Cetuximab was given intravenously, 500 mg/m2 every 2 weeks with regimen one and three or a loading dose of 400 mg/m2 followed by a weekly infusion of 250 mg/m2 with regimen two. The primary endpoint of progression-free survival was published previously. Secondary endpoints were overall survival, preoperative response, pathological resection status, and safety. Trial recruitment was halted prematurely on the advice of the Trial Steering Committee on Nov 1, 2012. All analyses (except safety) were done on the intention-to-treat population. Safety analyses included all randomly assigned patients. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number 22944367. FINDINGS: Between Feb 26, 2007, and Oct 12, 2012, 257 eligible patients were randomly assigned to chemotherapy with cetuximab (n=129) or without cetuximab (n=128). This analysis was carried out 5 years after the last patient was recruited, as defined in the protocol, at a median follow-up of 66·7 months (IQR 58·0-77·5). Median progression-free survival was 22·2 months (95% CI 18·3-26·8) in the chemotherapy alone group and 15·5 months (13·8-19·0) in the chemotherapy plus cetuximab group (hazard ratio [HR] 1·17, 95% CI 0·87-1·56; p=0·304). Median overall survival was 81·0 months (59·6 to not reached) in the chemotherapy alone group and 55·4 months (43·5-71·5) in the chemotherapy plus cetuximab group (HR 1·45, 1·02-2·05; p=0·036). There was no significant difference in the secondary outcomes of preoperative response or pathological resection status between groups. Five deaths might have been treatment-related (one in the chemotherapy alone group and four in the chemotherapy plus cetuximab group). The most common grade 3-4 adverse events reported were: neutrophil count decreased (26 [19%] of 134 in the chemotherapy alone group vs 21 [15%] of 137 in the chemotherapy plus cetuximab group), diarrhoea (13 [10%] vs 14 [10%]), skin rash (one [1%] vs 22 [16%]), thromboembolic events (ten [7%] vs 11 [8%]), lethargy (ten [7%] vs nine [7%]), oral mucositis (three [2%] vs 14 [10%]), vomiting (seven [5%] vs seven [5%]), peripheral neuropathy (eight [6%] vs five [4%]), and pain (six [4%] vs six [4%]). INTERPRETATION: Although the addition of cetuximab to chemotherapy improves the overall survival in some studies in patients with advanced, inoperable metastatic disease, its use in the perioperative setting in patients with operable disease confers a significant disadvantage in terms of overall survival. Cetuximab should not be used in this setting. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK.

Fractional Flow Reserve Derived from Computed Tomography Coronary Angiography in the Assessment and Management of Stable Chest Pain: Rationale and Design of the FORECAST Trial.

BACKGROUND: Fractional flow reserve measurement based on computed tomography (FFRCT) is a novel, well validated, non-invasive method for determining the presence and extent of coronary artery disease (CAD) combined with a physiological assessment of vessel-specific ischemia in patients with chest pain. Previous studies indicate that FFRCT reduces the uptake of invasive angiography that shows no significant CAD, without compromising patient safety. The clinical effectiveness and economic impact of using FFRCT instead of other tests in the initial evaluation of patients with stable chest pain has not been tested in a randomized trial. METHODS: The FORECAST trial will randomise 1400 patients with stable chest pain to receive either FFRCT or routine clinical assessment as directed by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) CG95 guideline for Chest Pain of Recent Onset. The primary endpoint will be resource utilisation over the subsequent nine months, including non-invasive cardiac investigations, invasive coronary angiography, coronary revascularization, hospitalization for cardiac events, and the use of cardiac medications. Key pre-specified secondary endpoints will be major adverse cardiac events, angina severity, quality of life, patient satisfaction, time to definitive management plan, time to completion of initial evaluation, number of hospital attendances, and working days lost in patients who are in employment. CONCLUSION: The FORECAST randomized trial will assess the clinical and economic outcomes of using FFRCT as the primary test to evaluate patients presenting with stable chest pain.

Thirteen-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in Children With Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia: Protective Immunity Can Be Achieved on Completion of Treatment.

BACKGROUND: Children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) are at increased risk of developing invasive pneumococcal disease. This study describes the immunogenicity of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) during and after chemotherapy. METHODS: Children with ALL were allocated to study groups and received a single dose of PCV13: group 1, maintenance chemotherapy; group 2, end of chemotherapy; group 3, 6 months after chemotherapy. A protective vaccine response was defined as at least 10 of 12 serotypes (or >83% of serotypes with data) achieving postvaccination serotype-specific immunoglobulin G ≥0.35 µg/mL and ≥4-fold rise, compared to prevaccination at 1 and 12 months. RESULTS: One hundred eighteen children were recruited. Only 12.8% (5/39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.3%-27.4%) of patients vaccinated during maintenance (group 1) achieved a protective response at 1 month postvaccination and none had a protective response at 12 months. For group 2 patients, 59.5% (22/37; 95% CI, 42.1%-75.3%) achieved a response at 1 month and 37.9% (11/29; 95% CI, 20.7%-57.7%) maintained immunity at 12 months. For group 3 patients, 56.8% (21/37; 95% CI, 39.5%-72.9%) achieved a protective response at 1 month and 43.3% (13/30; 95% CI, 25.5%-62.6%) maintained immunity at 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that the earliest time point at which protective immunity can be achieved in children with ALL is on completion of chemotherapy. This is earlier than current recommendations and may improve protection during a period when children are most susceptible to infection. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: EudraCT 2009-011587-11.

Gene-expression profiling of bortezomib added to standard chemoimmunotherapy for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (REMoDL-B): an open-label, randomised, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: Biologically distinct subtypes of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma can be identified using gene-expression analysis to determine their cell of origin, corresponding to germinal centre or activated B cell. We aimed to investigate whether adding bortezomib to standard therapy could improve outcomes in patients with these subtypes. METHODS: In a randomised evaluation of molecular guided therapy for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma with bortezomib (REMoDL-B), an open-label, adaptive, randomised controlled, phase 3 superiority trial, participants were recruited from 107 cancer centres in the UK (n=94) and Switzerland (n=13). Eligible patients had previously untreated, histologically confirmed diffuse large B-cell lymphoma with sufficient diagnostic material from initial biopsies for gene-expression profiling and pathology review; were aged 18 years or older; had ECOG performance status of 2 or less; had bulky stage I or stage II-IV disease requiring full-course chemotherapy; had measurable disease; and had cardiac, lung, renal, and liver function sufficient to tolerate chemotherapy. Patients initially received one 21-day cycle of standard rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisolone (R-CHOP; rituximab 375 mg/m2, cyclophosphamide 750 mg/m2, doxorubicin 50 mg/m2, and vincristine 1·4 mg/m2 [to a maximum of 2 mg total dose] intravenously on day 1 of the cycle, and prednisolone 100 mg orally once daily on days 1-5). During this time, we did gene-expression profiling using whole genome cDNA-mediated annealing, selection, extension, and ligation assay of tissue from routine diagnostic biopsy samples to determine the cell-of-origin subtype of each participant (germinal centre B cell, activated B cell, or unclassified). Patients were then centrally randomly assigned (1:1) via a web-based system, with block randomisation stratified by international prognostic index score and cell-of-origin subtype, to continue R-CHOP alone (R-CHOP group; control), or with bortezomib (RB-CHOP group; experimental; 1·3 mg/m2 intravenously or 1·6 mg/m2 subcutaneously) on days 1 and 8 for cycles two to six. If RNA extracted from the diagnostic tissues was of insufficient quality or quantity, participants were given R-CHOP as per the control group. The primary endpoint was 30-month progression-free survival, for the germinal centre and activated B-cell population. The primary analysis was on the modified intention-to-treat population of activated and germinal centre B-cell population. Safety was assessed in all participants who were given at least one dose of study drug. We report the progression-free survival and safety outcomes for patients in the follow-up phase after the required number of events occurred. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01324596, and recruitment and treatment has completed for all participants, with long-term follow-up ongoing. FINDINGS: Between June 2, 2011, and June 10, 2015, 1128 eligible patients were registered, of whom 918 (81%) were randomly assigned to receive treatment (n=459 to R-CHOP, n=459 to RB-CHOP), comprising 244 (26·6%) with activated B-cell disease, 475 (51·7%) with germinal centre B cell disease, and 199 (21·7%) with unclassified disease. At a median follow-up of 29·7 months (95% CI 29·0-32·0), we saw no evidence for a difference in progression-free survival in the combined germinal centre and activated B-cell population between R-CHOP and RB-CHOP (30-month progression-free survival 70·1%, 95% CI 65·0-74·7 vs 74·3%, 69·3-78·7; hazard ratio 0·86, 95% CI 0·65-1·13; p=0·28). The most common grade 3 or worse adverse event was haematological toxicity, reported in 178 (39·8%) of 447 patients given R-CHOP and 187 (42·1%) of 444 given RB-CHOP. However, RB-CHOP was not associated with increased haematological toxicity and 398 [87·1%] of 459 participants assigned to receive RB-CHOP completed six cycles of treatment. Grade 3 or worse neuropathy occurred in 17 (3·8%) patients given RB-CHOP versus eight (1·8%) given R-CHOP. Serious adverse events occurred in 190 (42·5%) patients given R-CHOP, including five treatment-related deaths, and 223 (50·2%) given RB-CHOP, including four treatment-related deaths. INTERPRETATION: This is the first large-scale study in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma to use real-time molecular characterisation for prospective stratification, randomisation, and subsequent analysis of biologically distinct subgroups of patients. The addition of bortezomib did not improve progression-free survival. FUNDING: Janssen-Cilag, Bloodwise, and Cancer Research UK.

Molecular High-Grade B-Cell Lymphoma: Defining a Poor-Risk Group That Requires Different Approaches to Therapy.

PURPOSE: Biologic heterogeneity is a feature of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), and the existence of a subgroup with poor prognosis and phenotypic proximity to Burkitt lymphoma is well known. Conventional cytogenetics identifies some patients with rearrangements of MYC and BCL2 and/or BCL6 (double-hit lymphomas) who are increasingly treated with more intensive chemotherapy, but a more biologically coherent and clinically useful definition of this group is required. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We defined a molecular high-grade (MHG) group by applying a gene expression-based classifier to 928 patients with DLBCL from a clinical trial that investigated the addition of bortezomib to standard rituximab plus cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone (R-CHOP) therapy. The prognostic significance of MHG was compared with existing biomarkers. We performed targeted sequencing of 70 genes in 400 patients and explored molecular pathology using gene expression signature databases. Findings were validated in an independent data set. RESULTS: The MHG group comprised 83 patients (9%), with 75 in the cell-of-origin germinal center B-cell-like group. MYC rearranged and double-hit groups were strongly over-represented in MHG but comprised only one half of the total. Gene expression analysis revealed a proliferative phenotype with a relationship to centroblasts. Progression-free survival rate at 36 months after R-CHOP in the MHG group was 37% (95% CI, 24% to 55%) compared with 72% (95% CI, 68% to 77%) for others, and an analysis of treatment effects suggested a possible positive effect of bortezomib. Double-hit lymphomas lacking the MHG signature showed no evidence of worse outcome than other germinal center B-cell-like cases. CONCLUSION: MHG defines a biologically coherent high-grade B-cell lymphoma group with distinct molecular features and clinical outcomes that effectively doubles the size of the poor-prognosis, double-hit group. Patients with MHG may benefit from intensified chemotherapy or novel targeted therapies.

MENOS4 trial: a multicentre randomised controlled trial (RCT) of a breast care nurse delivered cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) intervention to reduce the impact of hot flushes in women with breast cancer: Study Protocol.

BACKGROUND: Women who have been treated for breast cancer may identify vasomotor symptoms, such as hot flushes and night sweats (HFNS), as a serious problem. HFNS are unpleasant to experience and can have a significant impact on daily life, potentially leading to reduced adherence to life saving adjuvant hormonal therapy. It is known that Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT) is effective for the alleviation of hot flushes in both well women and women who have had breast cancer. Most women with breast cancer will see a breast care nurse and there is evidence that nurses can be trained to deliver psychological treatments to a satisfactory level, whilst also maintaining treatment fidelity. The research team will assess whether breast care nurses can effectively deliver a CBT intervention to alleviate hot flushes in women with breast cancer. METHODS: This study is a multi-centre phase III individually randomised controlled trial of group CBT versus usual care to reduce the impact of hot flushes in women with breast cancer. 120-160 women with primary breast cancer experiencing seven or more problematic HFNS a week will be randomised to receive either treatment as usual (TAU) or participation in the group CBT intervention plus TAU (CBT Group). A process evaluation using May's Normalisation Process Theory will be conducted, as well as practical and organisational issues relating to the implementation of the intervention. Fidelity of implementation of the intervention will be conducted by expert assessment. The cost effectiveness of the intervention will also be assessed. DISCUSSION: There is a need for studies that enable effective interventions to be implemented in practice. There is good evidence that CBT is helpful for women with breast cancer who experience HFNS, yet it is not widely available. It is not yet known whether the intervention can be effectively delivered by breast care nurses or implemented in practice. This study will provide information on both whether the intervention can effectively help women with hot flushes and whether and how it can be translated into routine clinical practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 12824632 . Registered 25-01-2017.

CONFIRM: a double-blind, placebo-controlled phase III clinical trial investigating the effect of nivolumab in patients with relapsed mesothelioma: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Mesothelioma is an incurable, apoptosis-resistant cancer caused in most cases by previous exposure to asbestos and is increasing in incidence. It represents a growing health burden but remains under-researched, with limited treatment options. Early promising signals of activity relating to both PD-L1- and PD-1-targeted treatment in mesothelioma implicate a dependency of mesothelioma on this immune checkpoint. There is a need to evaluate checkpoint inhibitors in patients with relapsed mesothelioma where treatment options are limited. METHODS: The addition of 12 months of nivolumab (anti-PD1 antibody) to standard practice will be conducted in the UK using a randomised, placebo-controlled phase III trial (the Cancer Research UK CONFIRM trial). A total of 336 patients with pleural or peritoneal mesothelioma who have received at least two prior lines of therapy will be recruited from UK secondary care sites. Patients will be randomised 2:1 (nivolumab:placebo), stratified according to epithelioid/non-epithelioid, to receive either 240 mg nivolumab monotherapy or saline placebo as a 30-min intravenous infusion. Treatment will be for up to 12 months. We will determine whether the use of nivolumab increases overall survival (the primary efficacy endpoint). Secondary endpoints will include progression-free survival, objective response rate, toxicity, quality of life and cost-effectiveness. Analysis will be performed according to the intention-to-treat principle using a Cox regression analysis for the primary endpoint (and for other time-to-event endpoints). DISCUSSION: The outcome of this trial will provide evidence of the potential benefit of the use of nivolumab in the treatment of relapsed mesothelioma. If found to be clinically effective, safe and cost-effective it is likely to become the new standard of care in the UK. TRIAL REGISTRATION: EudraCT Number: 2016-003111-35 (entered on 21 July 2016); ClinicalTrials.gov, ID: NCT03063450 . Registered on 24 February 2017.

Germline BRCA mutation and outcome in young-onset breast cancer (POSH): a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Retrospective studies provide conflicting interpretations of the effect of inherited genetic factors on the prognosis of patients with breast cancer. The primary aim of this study was to determine the effect of a germline BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation on breast cancer outcomes in patients with young-onset breast cancer. METHODS: We did a prospective cohort study of female patients recruited from 127 hospitals in the UK aged 40 years or younger at first diagnosis (by histological confirmation) of invasive breast cancer. Patients with a previous invasive malignancy (except non-melanomatous skin cancer) were excluded. Patients were identified within 12 months of initial diagnosis. BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations were identified using blood DNA collected at recruitment. Clinicopathological data, and data regarding treatment and long-term outcomes, including date and site of disease recurrence, were collected from routine medical records at 6 months, 12 months, and then annually until death or loss to follow-up. The primary outcome was overall survival for all BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers (BRCA-positive) versus all non-carriers (BRCA-negative) at 2 years, 5 years, and 10 years after diagnosis. A prespecified subgroup analysis of overall survival was done in patients with triple-negative breast cancer. Recruitment was completed in 2008, and long-term follow-up is continuing. FINDINGS: Between Jan 24, 2000, and Jan 24, 2008, we recruited 2733 women. Genotyping detected a pathogenic BRCA mutation in 338 (12%) patients (201 with BRCA1, 137 with BRCA2). After a median follow-up of 8·2 years (IQR 6·0-9·9), 651 (96%) of 678 deaths were due to breast cancer. There was no significant difference in overall survival between BRCA-positive and BRCA-negative patients in multivariable analyses at any timepoint (at 2 years: 97·0% [95% CI 94·5-98·4] vs 96·6% [95·8-97·3]; at 5 years: 83·8% [79·3-87·5] vs 85·0% [83·5-86·4]; at 10 years: 73·4% [67·4-78·5] vs 70·1% [67·7-72·3]; hazard ratio [HR] 0·96 [95% CI 0·76-1·22]; p=0·76). Of 558 patients with triple-negative breast cancer, BRCA mutation carriers had better overall survival than non-carriers at 2 years (95% [95% CI 89-97] vs 91% [88-94]; HR 0·59 [95% CI 0·35-0·99]; p=0·047) but not 5 years (81% [73-87] vs 74% [70-78]; HR 1·13 [0·70-1·84]; p=0·62) or 10 years (72% [62-80] vs 69% [63-74]; HR 2·12 [0·82-5·49]; p= 0·12). INTERPRETATION: Patients with young-onset breast cancer who carry a BRCA mutation have similar survival as non-carriers. However, BRCA mutation carriers with triple-negative breast cancer might have a survival advantage during the first few years after diagnosis compared with non-carriers. Decisions about timing of additional surgery aimed at reducing future second primary-cancer risks should take into account patient prognosis associated with the first malignancy and patient preferences. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, the UK National Cancer Research Network, the Wessex Cancer Trust, Breast Cancer Now, and the PPP Healthcare Medical Trust Grant.

A comparison of the clinical effectiveness and cost of specialised individually delivered parent training for preschool attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and a generic, group-based programme: a multi-centre, randomised controlled trial of the New Forest Parenting Programme versus Incredible Years.

The objective of this study is to compare the efficacy and cost of specialised individually delivered parent training (PT) for preschool children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) against generic group-based PT and treatment as usual (TAU). This is a multi-centre three-arm, parallel group randomised controlled trial conducted in National Health Service Trusts. The participants included in this study were preschool children (33-54 months) fulfilling ADHD research diagnostic criteria. New Forest Parenting Programme (NFPP)-12-week individual, home-delivered ADHD PT programme; Incredible Years (IY)-12-week group-based, PT programme initially designed for children with behaviour problems were the interventions. Primary outcome-Parent ratings of child's ADHD symptoms (Swanson, Nolan & Pelham Questionnaire-SNAP-IV). Secondary outcomes-teacher ratings (SNAP-IV) and direct observations of ADHD symptoms and parent/teacher ratings of conduct problems. NFPP, IY and TAU outcomes were measured at baseline (T1) and post treatment (T2). NFPP and IY outcomes only were measured 6 months post treatment (T3). Researchers, but not therapists or parents, were blind to treatment allocation. Analysis employed mixed effect regression models (multiple imputations). Intervention and other costs were estimated using standardized approaches. NFPP and IY did not differ on parent-rated SNAP-IV, ADHD combined symptoms [mean difference - 0.009 95% CI (- 0.191, 0.173), p = 0.921] or any other measure. Small, non-significant, benefits of NFPP over TAU were seen for parent-rated SNAP-IV, ADHD combined symptoms [- 0.189 95% CI (- 0.380, 0.003), p = 0.053]. NFPP significantly reduced parent-rated conduct problems compared to TAU across scales (p values < 0.05). No significant benefits of IY over TAU were seen for parent-rated SNAP, ADHD symptoms [- 0.16 95% CI (- 0.37, 0.04), p = 0.121] or parent-rated conduct problems (p > 0.05). The cost per family of providing NFPP in the trial was significantly lower than IY (£1591 versus £2103). Although, there were no differences between NFPP and IY with regards clinical effectiveness, individually delivered NFPP cost less. However, this difference may be reduced when implemented in routine clinical practice. Clinical decisions should take into account parental preferences between delivery approaches.

Germline variation in ADAMTSL1 is associated with prognosis following breast cancer treatment in young women.

To identify genetic variants associated with breast cancer prognosis we conduct a meta-analysis of overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in 6042 patients from four cohorts. In young women, breast cancer is characterized by a higher incidence of adverse pathological features, unique gene expression profiles and worse survival, which may relate to germline variation. To explore this hypothesis, we also perform survival analysis in 2315 patients aged ≤ 40 years at diagnosis. Here, we identify two SNPs associated with early-onset DFS, rs715212 (P meta = 3.54 × 10-5) and rs10963755 (P meta = 3.91 × 10-4) in ADAMTSL1. The effect of these SNPs is independent of classical prognostic factors and there is no heterogeneity between cohorts. Most importantly, the association with rs715212 is noteworthy (FPRP <0.2) and approaches genome-wide significance in multivariable analysis (P multivariable = 5.37 × 10-8). Expression quantitative trait analysis provides tentative evidence that rs715212 may influence AREG expression (P eQTL = 0.035), although further functional studies are needed to confirm this association and determine a mechanism.

COAST (Cisplatin ototoxicity attenuated by aspirin trial): A phase II double-blind, randomised controlled trial to establish if aspirin reduces cisplatin induced hearing-loss.

BACKGROUND: Cisplatin is one of the most ototoxic chemotherapy drugs, resulting in a permanent and irreversible hearing loss in up to 50% of patients. Cisplatin and gentamicin are thought to damage hearing through a common mechanism, involving reactive oxygen species in the inner ear. Aspirin has been shown to minimise gentamicin-induced ototoxicity. We, therefore, tested the hypothesis that aspirin could also reduce ototoxicity from cisplatin-based chemotherapy. METHODS: A total of 94 patients receiving cisplatin-based chemotherapy for multiple cancer types were recruited into a phase II, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial and randomised in a ratio of 1:1 to receive aspirin 975 mg tid and omeprazole 20 mg od, or matched placebos from the day before, to 2 days after, their cisplatin dose(s), for each treatment cycle. Patients underwent pure tone audiometry before and at 7 and 90 days after their final cisplatin dose. The primary end-point was combined hearing loss (cHL), the summed hearing loss at 6 kHz and 8 kHz, in both ears. RESULTS: Although aspirin was well tolerated, it did not protect hearing in patients receiving cisplatin (p-value = 0.233, 20% one-sided level of significance). In the aspirin arm, patients demonstrated mean cHL of 49 dB (standard deviation [SD] 61.41) following cisplatin compared with placebo patients who demonstrated mean cHL of 36 dB (SD 50.85). Women had greater average hearing loss than men, and patients treated for head and neck malignancy experienced the greatest cHL. CONCLUSIONS: Aspirin did not protect from cisplatin-related ototoxicity. Cisplatin and gentamicin may therefore have distinct ototoxic mechanisms, or cisplatin-induced ototoxicity may be refractory to the aspirin regimen used here.

Uva-ursi extract and ibuprofen as alternative treatments of adult female urinary tract infection (ATAFUTI): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Women with acute uncomplicated urine infection are usually treated with antibiotics. One trial has demonstrated that delayed antibiotic treatment offered without symptom relief results in a modest reduction in antibiotic use. There is some evidence that ibuprofen provides symptom relief and reduces antibiotic use. Uva-ursi, a herbal product, has a traditional use for urinary infection symptom relief. We set out to test: in adult women with suspected UTI who accept the delayed prescription strategy: Do NSAIDs or uva-ursi (a herbal product) provide relief from urinary symptoms and reduce antibiotic use. METHODS/DESIGN: Adult women with suspected urinary tract infection presenting to primary care will be randomised using a factorial trial design in which patients will be randomised to one of two interventions as below: Group 1 - Uva-ursi + advice to take ibuprofen Group 2 - Placebo + advice to take ibuprofen Group 3 - Uva-ursi + no advice to take ibuprofen Group 4 - Placebo + no advice to take ibuprofen Patients and physicians will be blinded to the randomised group for the herb. The main outcome is symptom severity at days 2-4 recorded in a validated, self-report diary used in previous studies. Secondary outcomes include antibiotic use and symptom duration. In total the trial will require 328 patients in order to achieve at least 90% power for the primary endpoint and 80% for the secondary endpoint. In accordance with CONSORT guidelines all comparative analyses will be conducted on an intention-to-treat basis using SPSS or similar package. DISCUSSION: The outcomes from this trial have the potential to modify the current approach to the management of acute urinary symptoms with less dependence on the use of antibiotics. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN registry, ID: ISRCTN43397016 . Registered on 11 February 2015.

An updated PREDICT breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit prediction model with independent validation.

BACKGROUND: PREDICT is a breast cancer prognostic and treatment benefit model implemented online. The overall fit of the model has been good in multiple independent case series, but PREDICT has been shown to underestimate breast cancer specific mortality in women diagnosed under the age of 40. Another limitation is the use of discrete categories for tumour size and node status resulting in 'step' changes in risk estimates on moving between categories. We have refitted the PREDICT prognostic model using the original cohort of cases from East Anglia with updated survival time in order to take into account age at diagnosis and to smooth out the survival function for tumour size and node status. METHODS: Multivariable Cox regression models were used to fit separate models for ER negative and ER positive disease. Continuous variables were fitted using fractional polynomials and a smoothed baseline hazard was obtained by regressing the baseline cumulative hazard for each patients against time using fractional polynomials. The fit of the prognostic models were then tested in three independent data sets that had also been used to validate the original version of PREDICT. RESULTS: In the model fitting data, after adjusting for other prognostic variables, there is an increase in risk of breast cancer specific mortality in younger and older patients with ER positive disease, with a substantial increase in risk for women diagnosed before the age of 35. In ER negative disease the risk increases slightly with age. The association between breast cancer specific mortality and both tumour size and number of positive nodes was non-linear with a more marked increase in risk with increasing size and increasing number of nodes in ER positive disease. The overall calibration and discrimination of the new version of PREDICT (v2) was good and comparable to that of the previous version in both model development and validation data sets. However, the calibration of v2 improved over v1 in patients diagnosed under the age of 40. CONCLUSIONS: The PREDICT v2 is an improved prognostication and treatment benefit model compared with v1. The online version should continue to aid clinical decision making in women with early breast cancer.

ProCAID: a phase I clinical trial to combine the AKT inhibitor AZD5363 with docetaxel and prednisolone chemotherapy for metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer.

Background Docetaxel and prednisolone chemotherapy (DP) extends survival in metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). However, emergent clinical resistance is almost inevitable. AKT pathway activation is highly prevalent in mCRPC contributing to disease progression and DP resistance. AZD5363 is a potent oral pan-AKT inhibitor with pre-clinical data indicating activity in mCRPC and synergy with docetaxel. Methods This phase I trial was to determine an AZD5363 recommended phase II dose (RP2D) for combination with DP. Eligibility criteria included chemotherapy naive mCRPC, PSA or radiographic disease progression and ECOG performance status 0 or 1. Treatment comprised DP (75 mg/m2, IV, day 1 and 5 mg BID, PO, day 1-21 respectively for ten cycles) and AZD5363 to disease progression for all patients. We utilised a 3 + 3 dose escalation design to determine a maximum tolerated dose according to defined dose limiting toxicity criteria assessed using CTCAE version 4.03. Planned AZD5363 dose levels were 320 mg (DL1), 400 mg (DL2) and 480 mg (DL3), BID, PO, 4 days on/3 days off, from day 2 of each cycle. Results 10 patients were treated. Dose limiting toxicities affected 2 patients (grade 3 rash ≥5 days; grade 3 diarrhoea) in DL2. The commonest grade 3 or 4, AZD5363 related, symptomatic adverse events were rash and diarrhoea. Hyperglycaemia affected all patients but was self-limiting. PSA reduction to <50% at 12 weeks occurred in 7 patients. Conclusions The RP2D for AZD5363 is 320 mg BID, 4 days on/3 days off, in combination with full dose DP for mCRPC.

Local Recurrence and Breast Oncological Surgery in Young Women With Breast Cancer: The POSH Observational Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess clinical and surgical factors affecting local recurrence and survival in young breast cancer patients in the Prospective study of Outcomes in Sporadic versus Hereditary breast cancer (POSH). BACKGROUND: Emerging data suggest young age is a predictor of increased local recurrence. METHODS: POSH is a prospective cohort of 3024 women of 18 to 40 years with breast cancer. Cohort characteristics were grouped by mastectomy or BCS. Endpoints were local-recurrence interval (LRI), distant disease-free interval (DDFI), and overall survival (OS); described using cumulative-hazard and Kaplan-Meier plots and multivariable analyses by Flexible Parametric and Cox regression models. RESULTS: Mastectomy was performed in 1464 patients and breast-conserving surgery (BCS) in 1395. Patients undergoing mastectomy had larger tumors and higher proportions of positive family history, estrogen receptor+, progesterone receptor+, and/or human epidermal growth factor receptor 2+ tumors. Local events accounted for 15% of recurrences. LRI by surgical type varied over time with LRI similar at 18 months (1.0% vs 1.0%, P = 0.348) but higher for BCS at 5 and 10 years (5.3% vs 2.6%, P < 0.001; and 11.7% vs 4.9%, P < 0.001, respectively). Similar results were found in the adjusted model. Conversely, distant-metastases and deaths were lower for BCS but not after adjusting for prognostic factors. After mastectomy chest-wall radiotherapy was associated with improved LRI (hazard ratio, HR = 0.46, P = 0.015). Positive surgical margins, and development of local recurrence predicted for reduced DDFI (HR = 0.50, P < 0.001; and HR = 0.29, P = 0.001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Surgical extent appears less important for DDFI than completeness of excision or, where appropriate, chest-wall radiotherapy. Despite higher local-recurrence rates for BCS, surgical type does not influence DDFI or OS after adjusting for known prognostic factors in young breast cancer patients.