Characteristics and Outcomes of Patients With Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma After Exposure to Lenalidomide in First Line of Therapy: A Single Center Database Review in Greece.

BACKGROUND: The increasing use of lenalidomide (Len) in first-line (1L) therapy of multiple myeloma (MM) has led to a significant proportion of patients becoming Len-refractory following 1L treatment. However, there are limited real-world data on treatment strategies and outcomes of patients who become Len-refractory following 1L therapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This real-world retrospective cohort study analyzed Len-refractory and non-Len-refractory patients who received 1L Len and initiated second-line (2L) therapy at a Greek MM center. The Len-exposed cohort (n = 249) included 55.4% Len-refractory patients after 1L. RESULTS: Compared to non-Len-refractory patients, Len-refractory patients more frequently had high-risk cytogenetics and Revised-International Staging System-3 disease stage at diagnosis, and had shorter progression-free survival (PFS) following 1L therapy. Len-refractory versus non-Len-refractory patients more frequently received triplets (59% vs. 40%), anti-CD38 agents (20% vs. 9%) and pomalidomide (22% vs. 13%). The overall response rate was 53% for Len-refractory patients and 64% for non-Len-refractory patients in 2L therapy; median PFS was 10.7 vs. 18.3 months, respectively. Median overall survival (OS) was shorter for Len-refractory patients vs non-Len-refractory patients (23.8 vs. 53.6 months). Len refractoriness was an independent prognostic factor for both PFS and OS in Len-exposed patients. CONCLUSION: In this real-world Len-exposed cohort, Len-refractory patients receiving 1L Len experienced poorer survival outcomes than non-Len-refractory patients, highlighting the unmet need in this patient population which has driven the development of novel therapies.

Carfilzomib, daratumumab, and dexamethasone (KdD) vs. lenalidomide-sparing pomalidomide-containing triplet regimens for relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma: an indirect treatment comparison.

Nearly all patients with multiple myeloma eventually relapse or become refractory to treatment. Lenalidomide is increasingly administered in the frontline until disease progression or intolerance to therapy, resulting in the need for highly effective, lenalidomide-sparing options. In this study, carfilzomib plus daratumumab and dexamethasone were evaluated against lenalidomide-sparing, pomalidomide-containing triplets using matching-adjusted indirect comparison in the absence of head-to-head data. The analyses utilized long-term follow-up data from the CANDOR study (NCT03158688). Treatment with carfilzomib, daratumumab, and dexamethasone resulted in significantly longer progression-free survival (hazard ratio 0.60 [95% confidence interval: 0.37, 0.88])vs. pomalidomide plus bortezomib and dexamethasone, and numerically longer progression-free survival (hazard ratio 0.77 [95% confidence interval: 0.50, 1.08]) vs. daratumumab plus pomalidomide and dexamethasone in patients with relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma and previous lenalidomide exposure, the majority of whom were lenalidomide refractory. Carfilzomib plus daratumumab and dexamethasone offers a highly effective, lenalidomide-sparing treatment option for this population.

Cost-Effectiveness of Blinatumomab in Pediatric Patients with High-Risk First-Relapse B-Cell Precursor Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia in France.

BACKGROUND: Based on the results of the phase III randomized 20120215 trial, the European Medicines Agency granted the approval of blinatumomab for the treatment of pediatric patients with high-risk first-relapsed Philadelphia chromosome-negative B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). In France, blinatumomab received reimbursement for this indication in May 2022. This analysis assessed the cost effectiveness of blinatumomab compared with high-risk consolidation chemotherapy (HC3) in this indication from a French healthcare and societal perspective. METHODS: A partitioned survival model with three health states (event-free, post-event and death) was developed to estimate life-years (LYs), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs over a lifetime horizon. Patients who were alive after 5 years were considered to be cured. An excess mortality rate was applied to capture the late effects of cancer therapy. Utility values were based on the TOWER trial using French tariffs, and cost input data were identified from French national public health sources. The model was validated by clinical experts. RESULTS: Treatment with blinatumomab over HC3 was estimated to provide gains of 8.39 LYs and 7.16 QALYs. Total healthcare costs for blinatumomab and HC3 were estimated to be €154,326 and €102,028, respectively, resulting in an increment of €52,298. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was estimated to be €7308 per QALY gained from a healthcare perspective. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses, including analysis from the societal perspective. CONCLUSIONS: Blinatumomab administered as part of consolidation therapy in pediatric patients with high-risk first-relapsed ALL is cost effective compared with HC3 from the French healthcare and societal perspective.

Estimating and Extrapolating Survival Using a State-Transition Modeling Approach: A Practical Application in Multiple Myeloma.

OBJECTIVES: State-transition models (STMs) applied in oncology have given limited considerations to modeling postprogression survival data. This study presents an application of an STM focusing on methods to evaluate the postprogression transition and its impact on survival predictions. METHODS: Data from the lenalidomide plus dexamethasone arm of the ASPIRE trial was used to estimate transition rates for an STM. The model accounted for the competing risk between the progression and preprogression death events and included an explicit structural link between the time to progression and subsequent death. The modeled transition rates were used to simulate individual disease trajectories in a discrete event simulation framework, based on which progression-free survival and overall survival over a 30-year time horizon were estimated. Survival predictions were compared with the observed trial data, matched external data, and estimates obtained from a more conventional partitioned survival analysis approach. RESULTS: The rates of progression and preprogression death were modeled using piecewise exponential functions. The rate of postprogression mortality was modeled using an exponential function accounting for the nonlinear effect of the time to progression. The STM provided survival estimates that closely fitted the trial data and gave more plausible long-term survival predictions than the best-fitting Weibull model applied in a partitioned survival analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The fit of the STM suggested that the modeled transition rates accurately captured the underlying disease process over the modeled time horizon. The considerations of this study may apply to other settings and facilitate a wider use of STMs in oncology.

The value of survival gains from therapeutic innovations for US patients with relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma.

AIMS: This study quantifies the value of survival gains attributable to novel treatments approved since 2003 for United States (US) patients with relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM). METHODS: We estimated the increase in survival attributable to lenalidomide and bortezomib for multiple myeloma (MM) patients in the 1983-2013 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry. To estimate the survival benefit of treatments approved since 2015 (carfilzomib, elotuzomab, daratumumab, used in combination with lenalidomide and dexamethasone) we used clinical trial data to calibrate survival estimated using the SEER data. We then conducted an economic valuation of the estimated shift in survival curves for all therapies. Finally, we estimated the share of the value accruing to patients and manufacturers using treatment costs estimated from MarketScan data. RESULTS: The introduction of bortezomib in combination with dexamethasone (Vd) and lenalidomide in combination with dexamethasone (Rd) resulted in substantial survival gains and societal value for multiple myeloma patients, generating 1.7 additional life-years per RRMM patient. More recently, approved novel treatments have improved survival over effective treatments (i.e. Rd/Vd) by an additional 2.5 life-years - the monetary value of this incremental survival benefit far exceeds the incremental cost of treatment. At the patient level, the incremental benefit of Rd/Vd is $335,500 and with novel treatments is $565,000. Applying this benefit to all future cohorts of US RRMM patients translates into a value of at least $75 billion and $130 billion with Rd/Vd and the novel treatments, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: SEER registry data were only available through 2013. Therefore, survival gains for recently approved treatments were estimated based on clinical trials, rather than observed survival. Our valuation analysis does not capture sources of value aside from survival gains, for example, better quality of life, increased productivity, or the value of surviving until subsequent novel therapies become available. Substantial extensions in life expectancy in RRMM since 2003 translate into real economic value gained by society.

Burden of Treatment-Induced Peripheral Neuropathy in Patients with Multiple Myeloma in Sweden.

INTRODUCTION: Treatment-induced peripheral neuropathy (TIPN) is a complication of multiple myeloma (MM) treatment. OBJECTIVE: This real-world, retrospective study used electronic medical record (EMR) data from 3 Swedish clinics to assess the occurrence and economic burden of TIPN in patients with MM. METHODS: Eligible patients had an MM diagnosis in the Swedish Cancer Registry between 2006 and 2015 and initiated treatment during that period. Follow-up was until last EMR visit, death, or study end (April 2017). The current analyses included patients receiving bortezomib, lenalidomide, carfilzomib, or thalidomide at any treatment line. To discern healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) and costs associated with TIPN from other causes, patients with TIPN were matched with those without on baseline characteristics, treatment, and line of therapy. All analyses were descriptive. RESULTS: Overall, 457 patients were included; 102 (22%) experienced TIPN. Patients experiencing TIPN during first-line treatment mostly received bortezomib-based regimens (n = 48/57 [84%]); those with TIPN during second- and third/fourth-line treatment mostly received lenalidomide/thalidomide-based regimens (19/31 [61%], 8/14 [57%], respectively). Patients with TIPN had higher HCRU/costs than those without TIPN (mean differences in hospital outpatient visits: 5.2, p = 0.0031; total costs per patient-year: EUR 17,183, p = 0.0007). CONCLUSIONS: Effective MM treatments associated with a reduced incidence of TIPN could result in decreased healthcare expenditure.

Cost-effectiveness of once weekly carfilzomib 70 mg/m2 plus dexamethasone in patients with relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma in the United States.

BACKGROUND: In the US, carfilzomib 70 mg/m2 once-weekly plus dexamethasone (Kd70 QW) was recently indicated for relapsed and/or refractory multiple myeloma. In current US clinical practice, most patients treated with Kd receive carfilzomib at a previously approved dose of 27 mg/m2 twice-weekly (Kd27 BIW). This analysis assessed the cost-effectiveness (CE) of Kd70 QW vs Kd27 BIW regimens which were compared in the randomized phase 3 ARROW trial. METHODS: Based on clinical outcomes (overall survival and utilities) from ARROW, a partitioned survival model was developed to estimate life years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Long-term survival was extrapolated using SEER registry data matched to ARROW patients. Costs were estimated using a US healthcare payer perspective. RESULTS: The analysis estimated that treatment with Kd70 QW vs Kd27 BIW resulted in an increase of 1.10 LYs, 0.91 QALYs, and additional lifetime costs of $74,858, yielding an incremental CE ratio (ratio of incremental costs to QALYs) of $82,257 per QALY gained. Results were robust to sensitivity and subgroup analyses. CONCLUSIONS: When compared with Kd27 BIW, Kd70 QW is the optimal dose that represents a cost-effective utilization of health care budget with incremental CE ratios well below the accepted willingness-to-pay thresholds in the US.

Carfilzomib and dexamethasone versus eight cycles of bortezomib and dexamethasone in patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma: an indirect comparison using data from the phase 3 ENDEAVOR and CASTOR trials.

In ENDEAVOR, carfilzomib and dexamethasone (Kd56) demonstrated significant improvement in progression-free survival (PFS) compared with bortezomib and dexamethasone (Vd). Both agents were administered until disease progression; the EU label for Vd, however, stipulates a maximum of eight treatment cycles. Here, matching-adjusted treatment comparison was used to compare efficacy of Kd56 with Vd, if Vd was administered for 8 cycles (Vd-8). Data from ENDEAVOR and CASTOR trials (which compared daratumumab, bortezomib, and dexamethasone with Vd-8) were used. Hazard ratios of PFS were estimated for Vd vs. Vd-8 and Kd vs. Vd-8. For cycles 1-8, risk reduction in PFS for Kd56 vs. Vd-8 was equal to that estimated in ENDEAVOR (HR: 0.53; 95% CI 0.44-0.65). Beyond eight cycles, risk reduction in PFS for Kd56 and Vd-8 was estimated to be 60% (HR: 0.40; 95% CI 0.26-0.63). The analysis suggested that PFS benefit of Kd56 over Vd increases when Vd is given for eight cycles only.

Letter--Value-Driven Treatment Decisions: Need of the Hour for Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma.

DISCLOSURES: No funding was involved in the writing of this letter. Medhekar, Sapra, Majer, Harrison, and Tekle are employees of and stockholders in Amgen.

Modeling Covariate-Adjusted Survival for Economic Evaluations in Oncology.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In economic evaluations in oncology, adjusted survival should be generated if imbalances in prognostic/predictive factors across treatment arms are present. To date, no formal guidance has been developed regarding how such adjustments should be made. We compared various covariate-adjusted survival modeling approaches, as applied to the ENDEAVOR trial in multiple myeloma that assessed carfilzomib plus dexamethasone (Cd) versus bortezomib plus dexamethasone (Vd). METHODS: Overall survival (OS) data and baseline characteristics were used for a subgroup (bortezomib-naïve/one prior therapy). Four adjusted survival modeling approaches were compared: propensity score weighting followed by fitting a Weibull model to the two arms of the balanced data (weighted data approach); fitting a multiple Weibull regression model including prognostic/predictive covariates to the two arms to predict survival using the mean value of each covariate and using the average of patient-specific survival predictions; and applying an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) derived from a Cox proportional hazard model to the baseline risk estimated for Vd. RESULTS: The mean OS estimated by the weighted data approach was 6.85 years (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.62-10.70) for Cd, 4.68 years (95% CI 3.46-6.74) for Vd, and 2.17 years (95% CI 0.18-5.06) for the difference. Although other approaches estimated similar differences, using the mean value of covariates appeared to yield skewed survival estimates (mean OS was 7.65 years for Cd and 5.40 years for Vd), using the average of individual predictions had limited external validity (implausible long-term OS predictions with > 10% of the Vd population alive after 30 years), and using the adjusted HR approach overestimated uncertainty (difference in mean OS was 2.03, 95% CI - 0.17 to 6.19). CONCLUSIONS: Adjusted survival modeling based on weighted or matched data approaches provides a flexible and robust method to correct for covariate imbalances in economic evaluations. The conclusions of our study may be generalizable to other settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT01568866 (ENDEAVOR trial).

Reframing the Value of Treatments for Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma.

DISCLOSURES: Ailawadhi reports research support from Pharmacyclics and consulting relationships with Takeda, Amgen, and Celgene. Jakubowiak reports consulting and advisory board relationships with AbbVie, Amgen, BMS, Celgene, Karyopharm, SkylineDX, and Takeda. Panjabi, Campioni, and Majer are employees of and stockholders in Amgen.

Palivizumab in the prevention of severe respiratory syncytial virus infection in children with congenital heart disease; a novel cost-utility modeling study reflecting evidence-based clinical pathways in Spain.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection remains one of the major reasons of re-hospitalization among children with congenital heart disease (CHD). This study estimated the cost-effectiveness of palivizumab prophylaxis versus placebo, in Spain, from the societal perspective, using a novel cost-effectiveness model reflecting evidence-based clinical pathways. METHODS: A decision-analytic model, combining a decision tree structure in the first year and a Markov structure in later years, was constructed to evaluate the benefits and costs associated with palivizumab versus no prophylaxis among children with CHD. In the first year of the model, children were at risk of mild (i.e. medically attended, MA-RSV) and severe (hospitalized, RSV-H) RSV infection. The impact of delayed corrective CHD surgery due to RSV infection and the consequence of performed surgery despite severe infection were considered. In later years, patients were at risk of developing asthma and allergic sensitization as sequelae of RSV infection. Input data for the model were derived from the pivotal clinical trial and systematic literature reviews. Indirect costs included parental absence from work and nosocomial infections. In agreement with Spanish guidelines, costs and effects were discounted at 3%. RESULTS: Over a lifetime horizon, palivizumab prophylaxis yielded 0.11 and 0.07 additional quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and life years (LYs), respectively, at additional costs of € 1,693, resulting in an ICER of € 15,748 per QALY gained and € 24,936 per LY gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the probability of palivizumab prophylaxis being cost-effective at a € 30,000 per QALY threshold was 92.7%. The ICER remained below this threshold for most extreme scenario analyses. CONCLUSIONS: The model demonstrated that palivizumab prophylaxis results in more QALYs than no prophylaxis in children with CHD. Palivizumab prophylaxis was shown to be a cost-effective health care intervention according to the commonly accepted standards of cost-effectiveness in Spain (ICER below the threshold of € 30,000 per QALY).

Cost-effectiveness of carfilzomib plus dexamethasone compared with bortezomib plus dexamethasone for patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma in the United States.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the economic value of carfilzomib 56 mg/m2 and dexamethasone (Kd56) vs. bortezomib and dexamethasone (Vd) for relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma (R/RMM) using ENDEAVOR trial results. METHODS: Cost-effectiveness of Kd56 vs. Vd was assessed using a partitioned survival model by estimating progression-free survival, overall survival, and direct costs over a lifetime horizon. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) survival data were extrapolated after matching registry and ENDEAVOR patients. Utilities were sourced from the literature and mapped from patient-reported quality of life in ENDEAVOR to estimate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) from life-years (LYs). RESULTS: The model predicted an average gain of 1.66 LYs and 1.50 QALYs with Kd56 vs. Vd, and lifetime additional costs of $182,699, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $121,828/QALY gained. The ICER was $114,793/QALY in patients with 1 prior treatment; $99,263/QALY in those not transplanted, and <$150,000/QALY up to an 85% discount in bortezomib price. CONCLUSIONS: Kd56 is cost-effective for patients with R/RMM at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000/QALY. Trial data in the model may limit generalizability; however, SEER registry data mitigates this challenge. Kd56 provides additional value in key subgroups, and remains cost-effective after steep comparator discounts.

Drug survival of second biological DMARD therapy in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: a retrospective non-interventional cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Since persistence to first biological disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) is far from ideal in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients, many do receive a second and/or third bDMARD treatment. However, little is known about treatment persistence of the second-line bDMARD and it is specifically unknown whether the mode of action of such a treatment is associated with different persistence rates. We aimed to assess discontinuation-, re-initiation- or continuation-rates of a 2nd bDMARD therapy as well as switching-rates to a third biological DMARD (3rd bDMARD) therapy in RA patients. METHOD: Analysis was based on German claims data (2010-2013). Patients were included if they had received at least one prescription for an anti-TNF and at least one follow-up prescription of a 2nd bDMARD different from the first anti-TNF. Patient follow-up started on the date of the first prescription for the 2nd bDMARD and lasted for 12 months or until a patient's death. RESULTS: 2667 RA patients received at least one anti-TNF prescription. Of these, 451 patients received a second bDMARD (340 anti-TNF, mean age 52.6 years; 111 non-anti-TNF, mean age 55.9 years). During the follow-up, 28.8% vs. 11.7% of the 2nd anti-TNF vs. non-anti-TNF patients (p < 0.001) switched to a 3rd bDMARD; 14.1% vs. 19.8% (p = 0.179) discontinued without re-start; 3.8% vs.1.8% (p = 0.387) re-started and 53.5 vs. 66.7% (p < 0.050) continued therapy. Patients in the non-anti-TNF group demonstrated longer drug survival (295 days) than patients in the anti-TNF group (264 days; p = 0.016). Independent variables associated with earlier discontinuation (including re-start) or switch were prescription of an anti-TNF as 2nd bDMARD (HR = 1.512) and a higher comorbidity level (CCI, HR = 1.112), whereas previous painkiller medication (HR = 0.629) was associated with later discontinuation or switch. CONCLUSIONS: Only 56.8% of RA patients continued 2nd bDMARD treatment after 12 months; 60% if re-start was included. Non-anti-TNF patients had a higher probability of continuing 2nd bDMARD therapy.

Panobinostat Plus Bortezomib Versus Lenalidomide in Patients with Relapsed and/or Refractory Multiple Myeloma: A Matching-Adjusted Indirect Treatment Comparison of Survival Outcomes using Patient-level Data.

BACKGROUND: In the UK, the standard of care for patients with multiple myeloma who received ≥2 prior treatments is lenalidomide plus dexamethasone (LEN + DEX) and pomalidomide plus DEX (POM + DEX) (in Wales only). Recently, panobinostat plus bortezomib and DEX (PAN + BTZ + DEX) was licensed in this setting. The current study assessed the progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) outcomes with PAN + BTZ + DEX versus LEN + DEX (primary comparator) and POM + DEX (exploratory comparator). METHODS: Since an anchor-based indirect treatment comparison was not feasible, the matching-adjusted indirect treatment comparison approach was used. To compare the survival outcomes, patient-level data were generated for the comparators utilizing published Kaplan-Meier survival estimates. The use of approximated patient-level data and matched data for PAN + BTZ + DEX allowed the use of Cox proportional hazards models and the assessment of the proportional hazards assumption. In cases where there was evidence that the proportional hazards assumption was violated, time-dependent hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated. Median and mean values for PFS and OS were predicted. RESULTS: For both PFS and OS, the proportional hazards assumption was not satisfied, therefore time-dependent HRs were estimated. Using time-dependent HRs, the mean PFS was estimated to be 11.83 months for PAN + BTZ + DEX and 10.96 months for LEN + DEX. The corresponding mean OS estimates were 30.73 and 27.76 months, respectively. Comparisons with POM + DEX were affected by large uncertainty and did not allow making robust inferences. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first study that combined matching-adjusted indirect treatment comparison with time-dependent HRs to address changing patterns in the HR. The results suggest that treatment with PAN + BTZ + DEX and LEN + DEX are associated with similar mean PFS and OS in the third-line treatment setting of multiple myeloma.

A European chart review study on early rheumatoid arthritis treatment patterns, clinical outcomes, and healthcare utilization.

This retrospective medical chart review aimed to provide a current, real-world overview of biologic usage in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in Germany, Spain, and the UK, and estimate clinical and healthcare utilization outcomes associated with early versus late treatment. Adults (≥18 years) with a confirmed RA diagnosis between January 2008 and December 2010, who received biologic treatment for ≥3 months and had ≥12 months of follow-up were included. Early treatment was receipt of biologic agent ≤1 year after RA diagnosis. Outcomes included 28-joint disease activity score (DAS28) reduction of ≥1.2 from biologic start and remission (DAS28 < 2.6). Time to outcome was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests. Of 328 patients enrolled (Germany [n = 111], Spain [n = 106], UK [n = 111]), 58.2 % received early biologic (Germany: 55.0 %, UK: 55.9 %, Spain: 64.2 %; p = 0.321). First-line biologics were more frequent in Spain (26.4 %) and Germany (19.8 %) versus the UK (7.2 %; p < 0.001). Late-treated patients were hospitalized more often than early-treated patients (10.5 vs 2.9 % [p = 0.006] for 9.0 vs 5.4 mean inpatient days [p = 0.408]). DAS28 was 5.1 at biologic initiation (n = 310); 73.5 % of patients had a DAS28 decrease of ≥1.2 and 44.5 % achieved remission. More patients had DAS28 decrease of ≥1.2 (79.2 vs 65.9 %; p = 0.009) and remission (51.1 vs 35.6 %; p = 0.007) with early versus late treatment, with a significant difference in Kaplan-Meier curves when indexing on time since diagnosis (p < 0.001) and biologic start (p = 0.024). In RA patients receiving biologic therapy, over half received biologic therapy early. Early initiation was associated with improved clinical outcomes and reduced hospitalization rates versus late treatment.

Which factors enhance positive drug reimbursement recommendation in Scotland? A retrospective analysis 2006-2013.

OBJECTIVES: To identify the factors that influence the Scottish Medicines Consortium (SMC) in deciding whether to accept pharmaceutical technologies for use within the Scottish health care system. METHODS: A database of SMC submissions between 2006 and 2013 was created, containing a range of clinical, economic, and other factors extracted from published health technology assessment reports. A binomial outcome variable was used, defined as the decision to "accept for use" or "not recommend" a technology. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to assess the impact by means of odds ratios (ORs) of the submitted evidence on the recommendation decision. RESULTS: Out of 463 applications, 265 were accepted for use (57%) and 198 (43%) were not recommended for use within National Health Service Scotland. Univariate analyses showed that 13 variables significantly affected the SMC decision. Of these 13 variables, 7 variables were shown to have a meaningful impact in the multivariate analysis. Four of these concerned the outcome of cost-effectiveness analyses; the fact that a submission was supported by a cost-minimization analysis was the strongest positive variable (OR = 10.30) and a submission showing a product not being cost-effective (i.e., incremental cost-effectiveness ratio above £30,000/quality-adjusted life-year gained) was the strongest negative predictor (OR = 0.47). The other variables concerned whether the submission was related to a product indicated for a nervous system disease (OR = 0.41), whether it was indicated for nonchronic use (OR = 1.66), and whether the submission was performed by a big company (OR = 2.83). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that the outcome of cost-effectiveness analyses is an important factor affecting the SMC's reimbursement recommendation decision.

Efficacy, tolerability, and safety of aripiprazole once-monthly versus other long-acting injectable antipsychotic therapies in the maintenance treatment of schizophrenia: a mixed treatment comparison of double-blind randomized clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Treatment with long-acting injectable (LAI) antipsychotic medication is an important element of relapse prevention in schizophrenia. Recently, the intramuscular once-monthly formulation of aripiprazole received marketing approval in Europe and the United States for schizophrenia. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to compare aripiprazole once-monthly with other LAI antipsychotics in terms of efficacy, tolerability, and safety. DATA SOURCES: A systematic literature review was conducted to identify relevant double-blind randomized clinical trials of LAIs conducted in the maintenance treatment of schizophrenia. MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process, Embase, the Cochrane Library, PsycINFO, conference proceedings, clinical trial registries, and the reference lists of key review articles were searched. The literature search covered studies dating from January 2002 to May 2013. STUDY SELECTION: Studies were required to have ≥24 weeks of follow-up. Patients had to be stable at randomization. Studies were not eligible for inclusion if efficacy of acute and maintenance phase treatment was not reported separately. Six trials were identified (0.5% of initially identified studies), allowing comparisons of aripiprazole once-monthly, risperidone LAI, paliperidone palmitate, olanzapine pamoate, haloperidol depot, and placebo. DATA EXTRACTION: Data extracted included study details, study duration, the total number of patients in each treatment arm, efficacy, tolerability, and safety outcomes. The efficacy outcome contained the number of patients that experienced a relapse, tolerability outcomes included the number of patients that discontinued treatment due to treatment-related adverse events (AEs), and that discontinued treatment due to reasons other than AEs (e.g., loss to follow-up). Safety outcomes included the incidence of clinically relevant weight gain and extrapyramidal symptoms. DATA SYNTHESIS: Data were analyzed by applying a mixed treatment comparison competing risks model (efficacy) and using binary models (safety). There was no statistically significant difference between any study outcome, including the risk of relapse, the risk of discontinuations, and safety outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Aripiprazole once-monthly is similarly efficacious to other LAIs with relatively low rates of discontinuation due to AEs and due to reasons other than AEs than other LAIs.

Time trends and forecasts of body mass index from repeated cross-sectional data: a different approach.

In this paper, we report a case study on a technical generalization of the Lee-Carter model, originally developed to project mortality, to forecast body mass index (BMI, kg/m2). We present the method on an annually repeated cross-sectional data set, the Dutch Health Survey, covering years between 1981 and 2008. We applied generalized additive models for location, scale and shape semi-parametric regression models to estimate the probability distribution of BMI for each combination of age, gender and year assuming that BMI follows a Box-Cox power exponential distribution. We modelled and extrapolated the distribution parameters as a function of age and calendar time using the Lee-Carter model. The projected parameters defined future BMI distributions from which we derived the prevalence of normal weight, overweight and obesity. Our analysis showed that important changes occurred not only in the location and scale of the BMI distribution but also in the shape of it. The BMI distribution became flatter and more shifted to the right. Assuming that past trends in the distribution of BMI will continue in the future, we predicted a stable or slow increase in the prevalence of overweight until 2020 among men and women. We conclude that our adaptation of the Lee-Carter model provides an insightful and flexible way of forecasting BMI and that ignoring changes in the shape of the BMI distribution would likely result in biased forecasts.